SPY
-0.37%
gap -0.61% · open +0.24%
Best factor
+0.73%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch
Worst factor
-2.91%
Extended Momentum Risk
Regime
Choppy Neutral
confidence 0.09
Breadth
11%
baskets positive · A/D 248/750
Regime components (−2 … +2)
trend+0.1
breadth+0.1
volatility+0.5
rotation-0.5
size-0.4
style-1.0

Data as of 2026-07-08T16:00:00-04:00 (Polygon intraday bars are 15-minute delayed). Every figure is computed deterministically from report.json before narration.

Session Snapshot

ProxyNameGroupLastSince CloseGapSince OpenRVol
SPYS&P 500index744.98-0.37%-0.61%+0.24%0.80
QQQNasdaq 100index710.44+0.14%-0.63%+0.78%0.84
DIADow Industrialsindex522.53-1.12%-0.97%-0.15%0.84
IWMRussell 2000index293.19-1.01%-0.73%-0.29%0.98
MDYS&P MidCap 400index681.31-0.99%-0.68%-0.32%0.61
IJRS&P SmallCap 600index143.67-1.18%-0.63%-0.56%0.76
RSPS&P 500 Equal Weightindex212.30-1.13%-0.55%-0.58%1.57
VTITotal US Marketindex367.99-0.44%-0.54%+0.10%1.08
XLKTechnologysector180.95+0.99%-0.95%+1.96%0.92
XLFFinancialssector54.96-1.94%-0.46%-1.49%1.39
XLEEnergysector55.60+1.76%+1.49%+0.26%1.43
XLVHealth Caresector162.48-1.19%-0.62%-0.57%0.99
XLIIndustrialssector180.42-1.07%-0.89%-0.19%1.10
XLYConsumer Discretionarysector115.27-1.81%-0.92%-0.89%2.28
XLPConsumer Staplessector84.32-0.64%+0.37%-1.00%1.06
XLUUtilitiessector45.41-0.63%+0.09%-0.72%0.86
XLBMaterialssector50.26-2.43%-0.99%-1.45%1.27
XLCCommunication Servicessector109.47-1.40%-0.09%-1.31%0.83
XLREReal Estatesector44.11-1.74%-0.09%-1.65%0.86
MTUMMomentum Factorstyle315.12+0.86%-0.74%+1.61%0.91
VLUEValue Factorstyle191.48-0.20%-1.06%+0.86%0.54
QUALQuality Factorstyle216.91-0.38%-0.50%+0.12%0.98
USMVMin Volatilitystyle97.64-0.73%-0.50%-0.23%0.88
SPLVLow Volatilitystyle75.86-1.38%-0.19%-1.19%1.24
SPHBHigh Betastyle145.60-0.16%-1.26%+1.12%1.81
IWFRussell 1000 Growthstyle121.56+0.17%-0.73%+0.91%0.56
IWDRussell 1000 Valuestyle245.20-1.03%-0.38%-0.65%0.58
VUGVanguard Growthstyle85.81-0.08%-0.58%+0.50%1.53
VTVVanguard Valuestyle217.60-0.90%-0.47%-0.43%1.34
SMHSemiconductorstheme592.00+1.81%-1.05%+2.90%0.91
XBIBiotechtheme162.43-0.88%-1.00%+0.12%1.30
ITAAerospace & Defensetheme239.56-2.26%-0.74%-1.53%1.24
KRERegional Bankstheme73.36-2.28%-0.52%-1.77%1.71
XHBHomebuilderstheme106.06-3.06%-1.27%-1.81%1.13
TANSolartheme54.11-1.28%-1.92%+0.65%0.79
TLT20+yr Treasuriescross_asset84.31-0.28%-0.28%-0.00%1.18
IEF7-10yr Treasuriescross_asset93.51-0.20%-0.18%-0.02%0.88
HYGHigh Yield Creditcross_asset79.66-0.13%-0.19%+0.06%1.13
LQDIG Creditcross_asset107.67-0.19%-0.19%-0.01%1.37
GLDGoldcross_asset374.23-0.86%-1.14%+0.28%1.13
USOOilcross_asset112.70+3.47%+3.16%+0.30%2.92
UUPUS Dollarcross_asset28.36-0.14%+0.04%-0.18%0.73

The session closed deeply negative with the Large-cap cohort down 1.02% and decliners outnumbering advancers 750 to 248. Only 10.64% of baskets posted positive moves. The session opened with a gap of -0.65% and deteriorated further, leaving a since-close decline of -1.02%. Volume anomalies flagged GLPI and QXO with RVOLs of 3.35 and 3.11 on distribution. The Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch basket was the sole bright spot, gaining 0.72% on the day.

Intraday Factor Moves

BasketNSince CloseGapSince OpenBreadthRVolCoverage
Broken Momentum / Avoid135-1.25%-0.65%-0.60%22.2% adv0.80100.0%
Extended Momentum Risk5-2.91%-0.47%-2.45%0.0% adv0.99100.0%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation22-1.70%-0.47%-1.23%18.2% adv0.74100.0%
Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership11-0.12%-0.89%+0.79%36.4% adv0.79100.0%
Neutral / Transition380-0.50%-0.63%+0.12%33.5% adv0.7599.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch43+0.73%-0.78%+1.53%57.1% adv1.02100.0%
Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend241-1.70%-0.50%-1.21%10.5% adv0.7698.8%
Thematic Momentum Leadership169-1.42%-0.88%-0.55%20.1% adv0.80100.0%

Factor performance was dominated by a sharp unwind of momentum and low-vol. Extended Overbought Momentum plunged 2.31%, while Momentum Breakout / Leadership fell 1.85%. Low-Vol Uptrend fared poorly with a 1.45% loss. In contrast, the Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch basket gained 0.72%, the only style factor to advance. Persistent Uptrend / Compounder declined 1.44%, and Base Building / Coiled lost 1.09%. The style component of our regime score hit -1.0, reflecting extreme factor compression.

Sector Rotation

BasketNSince CloseGapSince OpenBreadthRVolCoverage
Communication Services44-1.23%-0.25%-0.98%16.3% adv0.6197.7%
Consumer Discretionary106-1.85%-0.97%-0.89%17.0% adv0.86100.0%
Consumer Staples47-1.37%+0.09%-1.46%14.9% adv0.81100.0%
Energy40+2.33%+1.49%+0.82%77.5% adv1.06100.0%
Financials149-1.74%-0.60%-1.15%8.1% adv0.8499.3%
Health Care128-1.18%-0.70%-0.48%24.4% adv0.7399.2%
Industrials177-1.23%-0.95%-0.29%26.1% adv0.79100.0%
Information Technology166+0.14%-1.12%+1.27%46.1% adv0.7399.4%
Materials39-1.54%-1.07%-0.48%23.1% adv0.84100.0%
Real Estate66-1.72%-0.41%-1.31%6.1% adv0.72100.0%
Utilities44-0.69%+0.02%-0.71%15.9% adv0.64100.0%

Across themes, defensive-oriented Oil & Gas was essentially flat at -0.03%, while cyclical and growth groups bore the brunt. Housing / Real Estate fell 1.49%, Consumer / Retail dropped 1.31%, and Financials / Credit lost 1.28%. Even Semiconductors, which had led year-to-date with 46.06%, gave back 0.36%. Healthcare / Biotech, despite being degraded in coverage, declined 0.65%. The sector wave map places Utilities, Health Care, and Consumer Staples in expansion / late acceleration, while Information Technology and Communication Services sit in basing / early-cycle stages.

Themes and Keyword Baskets

ThemeNIntradayWTDMTDBreadth
Semiconductors247-0.05%-2.19%-6.36%41.5% adv
Oil & Gas370-0.13%+0.71%+0.36%40.1% adv
Cybersecurity158-0.59%-0.37%-0.15%33.3% adv
Industrial Automation491-0.62%-2.17%-4.29%30.4% adv
AI Infrastructure830-0.64%-1.74%-3.21%30.1% adv
Defense / Aerospace259-1.19%-3.33%-5.32%25.4% adv
Commodities / Materials184-1.36%-3.18%-4.51%28.4% adv
Consumer / Retail486-1.54%-2.28%-0.99%18.1% adv
Financials / Credit677-1.63%-1.33%+0.21%13.6% adv
Housing / Real Estate423-1.71%-1.15%-0.61%15.3% adv

The session saw broad thematic declines with 10 of 12 themes posting negative returns. Cloud Software led losses with a -0.89% decline, followed by Defense / Aerospace at -0.99% and Commodities / Materials at -1.06%. Consumer / Retail was the worst at -1.31%. Oil & Gas was nearly unchanged at -0.03%. Breadth was uniformly thin: Consumer / Retail had only 18.14% of members advancing, Financials / Credit 13.62%, and Housing / Real Estate 15.34%. The Healthcare / Biotech theme remains degraded, covering only 56.71% of constituents. Median RVOL across themes ranged from 0.73 to 0.84, indicating subdued volume on the selloff.

Size and Breadth

Size bucketNIntradayD1WTDBreadth
Large (>=5B)1006-1.02%-1.02%-1.50%24.8% adv
Micro Cap $250M-$1B228n/a-0.48%-1.19%11.9% adv
Nano Cap <$250M21n/a+0.40%-0.15%9.5% adv
Small Cap $1B-$5B829n/a-0.80%-0.68%10.9% adv
% > SMA50% > SMA200AdvancersDecliners% Baskets Positive
61.9%66.0%24875010.6%

61.9% of the universe holds above the 50-day and 66.0% above the 200-day; advancers 248 vs decliners 750.

Volume and Participation

DimensionBasketMedian RVol% Members RVol>1.5
productionBroken Momentum / Avoid0.803.0%
productionExtended Momentum Risk0.990.0%
productionInstitutional Large-Cap Accumulation0.740.0%
productionMega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership0.790.0%
productionNeutral / Transition0.754.7%
productionOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch1.0214.3%
productionQuality / Low-Vol Uptrend0.762.9%
productionThematic Momentum Leadership0.804.7%
TickerBasketRVolReturnNote
GLPIBroken Momentum / Avoid3.35-2.63%distribution volume
QXOBroken Momentum / Avoid3.11-3.87%distribution volume
LEVIThematic Momentum Leadership3.08-5.19%distribution volume
SYFQuality / Low-Vol Uptrend3.06-9.61%distribution volume
COKENeutral / Transition2.79-2.84%distribution volume

GLPI prints 3.35x relative volume in Broken Momentum / Avoid at -2.63%.

Regime Assessment

LabelConfidenceComposite
Choppy Neutral0.09-0.13
ComponentScore [−2..+2]Key inputs
trend0.1spy_vs_sma50_pct=0.8075, spy_vs_sma200_pct=7.472, sma20_slope_sign=-1.0, d3_pct=0.0269
breadth0.1pct_above_sma50=61.89, pct_above_sma200=65.97, adv_dec_ratio=0.331, pct_baskets_positive=10.64
volatility0.5rv20_pctile_2y=74.8, tr_vs_atr20=0.744, atr20_method=true_range, intraday_range_vs_20d=0.671
rotation-0.5spearman_d1_vs_w1=-0.9701, spearman_wtd_vs_m1=0.4048, leadership_flip=False
size-0.4small_large_d1=-0.6478, small_large_w1=-2.1767, small_large_m1=3.0899, smallmid_vs_5b_d1=0.3143
style-1.0mom_lowvol_w1=-9.3008, hibeta_lowvol_w1=-7.7024, growth_value_w1=-3.2446, credit_w1=0.896
Wave stageSectors
Expansion / late acceleration5
Basing / early-cycle4
Reset within trend2

Regime: Choppy Neutral (confidence 0.09, composite -0.13).

Opportunity Watchlist

TickerSectorOpportunityWave stageRegime fit
ACIConsumer Staples88.5Wave 1 / accumulation91.9
OZKFinancials87.2Mixed / transition91.7
OWLFinancials81.7Wave 1 / accumulation88.5
SWKSInformation Technology83.3Wave 1 / accumulation88.2
TAPConsumer Staples84.6Wave 1 / accumulation87.9
TickerSince closeVs basketRead
ACI-1.13%+0.12%diverges
OZK-1.20%-0.70%diverges
OWL-1.38%-0.88%diverges
SWKS-1.94%-2.67%diverges
TAP-1.22%+0.03%diverges

Top screener pick: ACI (Consumer Staples), opportunity score 88.5, Wave 1 / accumulation.

Multi-Horizon Context

BasketD3WTDMTD
production: Broken Momentum / Avoid-2.00%-2.00%+0.32%
production: Extended Momentum Risk-2.28%-2.28%+5.27%
production: Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation-1.12%-1.12%+2.71%
production: Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership-1.32%-1.32%-6.20%
production: Neutral / Transition-1.19%-1.19%-2.35%
production: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-3.83%-3.83%-11.95%
production: Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend-1.53%-1.53%+0.55%
production: Thematic Momentum Leadership-1.24%-1.24%-0.44%
theme: AI Infrastructure-1.74%-1.74%-3.21%
theme: Cloud Software+2.16%+2.16%+3.29%
theme: Commodities / Materials-3.18%-3.18%-4.51%
theme: Consumer / Retail-2.28%-2.28%-0.99%
theme: Crypto / Digital Assets-1.21%-1.21%+0.26%
theme: Cybersecurity-0.37%-0.37%-0.15%
theme: Defense / Aerospace-3.33%-3.33%-5.32%
theme: Energy Transition-1.45%-1.45%-1.50%
theme: Financials / Credit-1.33%-1.33%+0.21%
theme: Healthcare / Biotech+0.45%+0.45%+1.95%
theme: Housing / Real Estate-1.15%-1.15%-0.61%
theme: Industrial Automation-2.17%-2.17%-4.29%
theme: Macro Rates / Inflation-1.80%-1.80%-1.67%
theme: Oil & Gas+0.71%+0.71%+0.36%
theme: Semiconductors-2.19%-2.19%-6.36%
sector: Communication Services-1.24%-1.24%+1.33%
sector: Consumer Discretionary-2.97%-2.97%-2.35%
sector: Consumer Staples-2.20%-2.20%+1.07%
sector: Energy+4.50%+4.50%+3.98%
sector: Financials-1.05%-1.05%+1.42%
sector: Health Care-0.60%-0.60%+2.38%
sector: Industrials-3.19%-3.19%-5.16%
sector: Information Technology-0.68%-0.68%-4.49%
sector: Materials-3.80%-3.80%-3.81%
sector: Real Estate-1.71%-1.71%-0.04%
sector: Utilities-1.08%-1.08%-0.19%
size: Large (>=5B)-1.50%-1.50%-1.28%
size: Micro Cap $250M-$1B-1.19%-1.19%-0.92%
size: Nano Cap <$250M-0.15%-0.15%-3.23%
size: Small Cap $1B-$5B-0.68%-0.68%-0.49%
style: Base Building / Coiled-1.82%-1.82%-1.67%
style: Extended Overbought Momentum-0.60%-0.60%+4.30%
style: Low-Vol Uptrend-1.31%-1.31%+0.02%
style: Momentum Breakout / Leadership-1.79%-1.79%+0.73%
style: Neutral / Transition-1.27%-1.27%-2.07%
style: Normal Vol/Trend-1.66%-1.66%-3.54%
style: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-3.83%-3.83%-11.95%
style: Persistent Uptrend / Compounder-1.27%-1.27%+0.11%
style: Weak Downtrend / Avoid Momentum-2.00%-2.00%+0.32%

WTD: best Energy +4.50%, worst Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch -3.83%; breadth deteriorating.

Data Quality and Coverage

SourceAs of
intraday_bars2026-07-08T16:00:00-04:00
warehouse_snapshot2026-07-08
proxy_daily2026-07-07
screener_artifact2026-07-08T20:33:12.166787-04:00
grouped_dailyunavailable
  • Overall coverage: 99.5%
  • Degraded baskets: theme:Healthcare / Biotech
  • Missing archived report days: 2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07
  • Report generated at 2026-07-09T03:02:46-04:00; every figure above is computed deterministically from report.json
  • Narration: 5 of 9 sections used the deterministic fallback (size_breadth, volume, regime, opportunities, multi_horizon); all other sections are LLM-narrated