Data as of 2026-07-08T19:45:00-04:00 (Polygon intraday bars are 15-minute delayed). Every figure is computed deterministically from report.json before narration.
Session Snapshot
| Proxy | Name | Group | Last | Since Close | Gap | Since Open | RVol |
|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | index | 745.40 | -0.31% | -0.61% | +0.30% | 0.70 |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | index | 711.44 | +0.28% | -0.63% | +0.92% | 0.70 |
| DIA | Dow Industrials | index | 522.77 | -1.07% | -0.97% | -0.11% | 0.69 |
| IWM | Russell 2000 | index | 293.48 | -0.91% | -0.73% | -0.19% | 0.84 |
| MDY | S&P MidCap 400 | index | 681.47 | -0.97% | -0.68% | -0.29% | 0.55 |
| IJR | S&P SmallCap 600 | index | 143.69 | -1.17% | -0.63% | -0.55% | 0.62 |
| RSP | S&P 500 Equal Weight | index | 212.20 | -1.18% | -0.55% | -0.63% | 1.27 |
| VTI | Total US Market | index | 368.25 | -0.37% | -0.54% | +0.17% | 1.10 |
| XLK | Technology | sector | 181.40 | +1.24% | -0.95% | +2.21% | 0.75 |
| XLF | Financials | sector | 54.97 | -1.93% | -0.46% | -1.47% | 1.14 |
| XLE | Energy | sector | 55.60 | +1.76% | +1.49% | +0.26% | 1.16 |
| XLV | Health Care | sector | 162.30 | -1.30% | -0.62% | -0.68% | 0.81 |
| XLI | Industrials | sector | 180.42 | -1.07% | -0.89% | -0.19% | 0.89 |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | sector | 115.30 | -1.78% | -0.92% | -0.87% | 1.83 |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | sector | 84.39 | -0.55% | +0.37% | -0.92% | 0.88 |
| XLU | Utilities | sector | 45.36 | -0.74% | +0.09% | -0.83% | 0.71 |
| XLB | Materials | sector | 50.16 | -2.62% | -0.99% | -1.65% | 1.09 |
| XLC | Communication Services | sector | 109.46 | -1.41% | -0.09% | -1.32% | 0.69 |
| XLRE | Real Estate | sector | 44.15 | -1.65% | -0.09% | -1.56% | 0.68 |
| MTUM | Momentum Factor | style | 314.85 | +0.77% | -0.74% | +1.52% | 0.72 |
| VLUE | Value Factor | style | 191.46 | -0.21% | -1.06% | +0.85% | 0.45 |
| QUAL | Quality Factor | style | 216.92 | -0.38% | -0.50% | +0.12% | 0.78 |
| USMV | Min Volatility | style | 97.65 | -0.71% | -0.50% | -0.21% | 0.84 |
| SPLV | Low Volatility | style | 75.86 | -1.38% | -0.19% | -1.19% | 1.02 |
| SPHB | High Beta | style | 145.54 | -0.20% | -1.26% | +1.08% | 1.70 |
| IWF | Russell 1000 Growth | style | 121.80 | +0.37% | -0.73% | +1.11% | 0.61 |
| IWD | Russell 1000 Value | style | 245.20 | -1.03% | -0.38% | -0.65% | 0.47 |
| VUG | Vanguard Growth | style | 85.99 | +0.13% | -0.58% | +0.71% | 1.21 |
| VTV | Vanguard Value | style | 217.64 | -0.88% | -0.47% | -0.41% | 1.06 |
| SMH | Semiconductors | theme | 593.00 | +1.99% | -1.05% | +3.07% | 0.74 |
| XBI | Biotech | theme | 162.97 | -0.55% | -1.00% | +0.46% | 1.06 |
| ITA | Aerospace & Defense | theme | 239.63 | -2.24% | -0.74% | -1.50% | 1.00 |
| KRE | Regional Banks | theme | 73.34 | -2.30% | -0.52% | -1.79% | 1.38 |
| XHB | Homebuilders | theme | 106.04 | -3.08% | -1.27% | -1.83% | 0.94 |
| TAN | Solar | theme | 54.14 | -1.22% | -1.92% | +0.71% | 0.63 |
| TLT | 20+yr Treasuries | cross_asset | 84.36 | -0.22% | -0.28% | +0.06% | 1.00 |
| IEF | 7-10yr Treasuries | cross_asset | 93.51 | -0.20% | -0.18% | -0.02% | 0.83 |
| HYG | High Yield Credit | cross_asset | 79.66 | -0.13% | -0.19% | +0.06% | 0.93 |
| LQD | IG Credit | cross_asset | 107.67 | -0.19% | -0.19% | -0.01% | 1.08 |
| GLD | Gold | cross_asset | 374.45 | -0.81% | -1.14% | +0.34% | 0.92 |
| USO | Oil | cross_asset | 112.21 | +3.02% | +3.16% | -0.13% | 2.43 |
| UUP | US Dollar | cross_asset | 28.36 | -0.14% | +0.04% | -0.18% | 0.59 |
The session saw broad weakness, with most baskets posting negative daily returns. Only Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch (+0.69%) and Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership (+0.06%) managed gains. Breadth was poor: adv_dec_ratio 0.336, with only 35.09% of Neutral / Transition members advancing. Intraday gap and open-positive movement faded by close. Volume was muted, median relative volume below 1.0 for all baskets, though some oversold names saw elevated activity (rvol median 0.93). Pattern census showed 88 breakouts vs 32 breakdowns, suggesting underlying churn.
What Worked Today
| Basket | Side | Ticker | Return | Weight |
|---|
| Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | top | KLAC | +2.18% | 0.23 |
| Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | top | SNX | +4.14% | 0.01 |
| Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | top | CORZ | +9.10% | 0.01 |
| Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | bottom | ORCL | -0.78% | 0.30 |
| Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | bottom | CRWD | -1.80% | 0.13 |
| Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | bottom | MIDD | -5.06% | 0.01 |
| Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership | top | AMAT | +2.89% | 0.08 |
| Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership | top | MU | +1.11% | 0.20 |
| Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership | top | DELL | +3.52% | 0.04 |
| Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership | bottom | LLY | -1.60% | 0.17 |
| Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership | bottom | GE | -2.98% | 0.06 |
| Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership | bottom | JNJ | -1.44% | 0.09 |
| Extended Momentum Risk | bottom | HCA | -2.95% | 0.54 |
| Extended Momentum Risk | bottom | MDLN | -6.30% | 0.20 |
| Extended Momentum Risk | bottom | TOST | -3.51% | 0.09 |
Only deeply oversold names worked, with the Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch basket posting a +0.69% daily gain as 57.14% of its members advanced. Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership eked out +0.06% on 45.45% advancing breadth. Both benefited from intraday mean reversion, with since-open returns of +1.50% and +0.98%. All other baskets declined; among the large Neutral / Transition cohort (380 names), only 35.09% advanced. The pattern census registered 88 breakouts against 32 breakdowns, indicating some setup buoyancy, but the close left longs underwater.
Sector Rotation
| Basket | N | D1 | 3D | WTD | MTD | Breadth | Coverage |
|---|
| Communication Services | 44 | -1.21% | -1.22% | -1.22% | +1.35% | 13.9% adv | 97.7% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 106 | -1.85% | -2.97% | -2.97% | -2.34% | 17.9% adv | 100.0% |
| Consumer Staples | 47 | -1.34% | -2.17% | -2.17% | +1.09% | 14.9% adv | 100.0% |
| Energy | 40 | +2.30% | +4.46% | +4.46% | +3.95% | 77.5% adv | 100.0% |
| Financials | 149 | -1.76% | -1.07% | -1.07% | +1.40% | 8.1% adv | 99.3% |
| Health Care | 128 | -1.17% | -0.60% | -0.60% | +2.39% | 23.6% adv | 99.2% |
| Industrials | 177 | -1.22% | -3.18% | -3.18% | -5.15% | 26.7% adv | 100.0% |
| Information Technology | 166 | +0.23% | -0.59% | -0.59% | -4.41% | 47.9% adv | 99.4% |
| Materials | 39 | -1.61% | -3.86% | -3.86% | -3.88% | 23.1% adv | 100.0% |
| Real Estate | 66 | -1.71% | -1.70% | -1.70% | -0.03% | 4.5% adv | 100.0% |
| Utilities | 44 | -0.67% | -1.06% | -1.06% | -0.16% | 18.2% adv | 100.0% |
Sector regimes tilted toward late acceleration, with Utilities, Health Care, Real Estate, Financials, and Energy in Expansion / late acceleration, carrying the highest opportunity scores (Utilities 68.94, Health Care 67.30). Consumer Staples, Industrials, Information Technology, and Communication Services sat in Basing / early-cycle, while Consumer Discretionary and Materials lingered in Reset within trend, Materials posting the lowest score of 54.29. The best-to-worst spread was 14.65 points. Over three days, Energy led sector returns at +4.46%, while Materials declined -3.86%.
Themes and Keyword Baskets
| Theme | N | Intraday | WTD | MTD | Breadth |
|---|
| Oil & Gas | 370 | -0.04% | +0.66% | +0.30% | 44.4% adv |
| Semiconductors | 247 | -0.08% | -1.94% | -6.18% | 43.7% adv |
| Industrial Automation | 491 | -0.63% | -2.17% | -4.32% | 31.2% adv |
| AI Infrastructure | 830 | -0.68% | -1.76% | -3.28% | 31.8% adv |
| Cybersecurity | 158 | -0.68% | -0.54% | -0.34% | 30.7% adv |
| Macro Rates / Inflation | 494 | -1.20% | -2.09% | -1.97% | 24.7% adv |
| Commodities / Materials | 184 | -1.36% | -3.46% | -4.80% | 27.1% adv |
| Financials / Credit | 677 | -1.71% | -1.75% | -0.22% | 12.5% adv |
| Housing / Real Estate | 423 | -1.73% | -1.38% | -0.85% | 14.8% adv |
| Consumer / Retail | 486 | -1.81% | -2.76% | -1.48% | 17.8% adv |
Oversold mean-reversion was the only positive factor on the day. Over a three-day window, theme baskets Cloud Software (+2.21%) and Oil & Gas (+0.66%) outperformed, while Semiconductors (-6.18% MTD) remained under duress. The basket wave map shows Thematic Momentum Leadership with a breakout dominant wave (47% share) and average opportunity 65.8, while Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend had a 30% breakout share with 66.9 avg opportunity. Momentum - LowVol spread compressed -0.29% over three days, reflecting defensive rotation.
Size and Breadth
| Size bucket | N | Intraday | D1 | WTD | Breadth |
|---|
| Large (>=5B) | 1006 | -1.01% | -1.01% | -1.49% | 25.1% adv |
| Micro Cap $250M-$1B | 228 | -0.57% | -0.57% | -1.28% | 34.5% adv |
| Nano Cap <$250M | 21 | +0.55% | +0.52% | -0.74% | 30.0% adv |
| Small Cap $1B-$5B | 829 | -1.20% | -1.19% | -1.08% | 24.7% adv |
| % > SMA50 | % > SMA200 | Advancers | Decliners | % Baskets Positive |
|---|
| 61.9% | 66.1% | 251 | 747 | 12.8% |
Size and breadth dynamics show small caps lagging large caps, with a Small - Large daily spread of -0.6061%, extending to -2.1364% over one week but positive 3.1359% over one month. Breadth conditions are deteriorating: the advance-decline ratio stood at 0.336, with 61.89% of issues above their 50-day moving average and 66.07% above the 200-day. The Neutral / Transition basket, covering 380 names, saw only 35.09% advance. The composite breadth score in the regime model registered a weak 0.1, confirming indecision.
Volume and Participation
| Dimension | Basket | Median RVol | % Members RVol>1.5 |
|---|
| production | Broken Momentum / Avoid | 0.81 | 3.7% |
| production | Extended Momentum Risk | 0.87 | 0.0% |
| production | Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation | 0.82 | 0.0% |
| production | Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership | 0.81 | 0.0% |
| production | Neutral / Transition | 0.77 | 3.4% |
| production | Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | 0.93 | 9.5% |
| production | Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend | 0.80 | 4.2% |
| production | Thematic Momentum Leadership | 0.82 | 4.1% |
| Ticker | Basket | RVol | Return | Note |
|---|
| GLPI | Broken Momentum / Avoid | 2.95 | -2.63% | distribution volume |
| SYF | Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend | 2.75 | -9.61% | distribution volume |
| QXO | Broken Momentum / Avoid | 2.62 | -3.87% | distribution volume |
Volume was subdued across most baskets, with median relative volume (rvol) readings ranging from 0.77 (Neutral / Transition) to 0.93 (Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch). The Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch basket had the highest proportion of members with rvol above 1.5 at 9.5%, indicating pockets of rebalancing activity. Distribution volume emerged in three names: GLPI (rvol 2.95, -2.63%), SYF (rvol 2.75, -9.61%), and QXO (rvol 2.62, -3.87%). Otherwise, lack of elevated participation underscores low conviction ahead of a potential trend resolution.
Regime Assessment
| Label | Confidence | Composite |
|---|
| Choppy Neutral | 0.10 | -0.16 |
| Component | Score [−2..+2] | Key inputs |
|---|
| trend | 0.1 | spy_vs_sma50_pct=0.8644, spy_vs_sma200_pct=7.5325, sma20_slope_sign=-1.0, d3_pct=0.0832 |
| breadth | 0.1 | pct_above_sma50=61.89, pct_above_sma200=66.07, adv_dec_ratio=0.336, pct_baskets_positive=12.77 |
| volatility | 0.5 | rv20_pctile_2y=74.8, tr_vs_atr20=0.744, atr20_method=true_range, intraday_range_vs_20d=0.671 |
| rotation | -0.5 | spearman_d1_vs_w1=-0.9524, spearman_wtd_vs_m1=0.381, leadership_flip=False |
| size | -0.6 | small_large_d1=-0.6061, small_large_w1=-2.1364, small_large_m1=3.1359, smallmid_vs_5b_d1=-0.0173 |
| style | -1.0 | mom_lowvol_w1=-9.3952, hibeta_lowvol_w1=-7.741, growth_value_w1=-3.0513, credit_w1=0.896 |
| Wave stage | Sectors |
|---|
| Expansion / late acceleration | 5 |
| Basing / early-cycle | 4 |
| Reset within trend | 2 |
The regime composite registers -0.1575, labeled Choppy Neutral with confidence 0.10. Trend and breadth components are neutral-leaning at 0.15 and 0.10, respectively, while volatility scores a tepid 0.50. Rotation is firmly negative at -0.50, driven by a daily-vs-weekly Spearman rank correlation of -0.9524. Size contributes -0.60, with small-cap underperformance on the day, and style is the weakest link at -1.00, reflecting severe momentum-vs-low-vol and high-beta-vs-low-vol compression over the week. Five sectors sit in Expansion / late acceleration, four in basing, leaving the tape vulnerable to further churn.
Opportunity Watchlist
| Ticker | Sector | Opportunity | Wave stage | Regime fit |
|---|
| ACI | Consumer Staples | 88.5 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 91.9 |
| OZK | Financials | 87.2 | Mixed / transition | 91.7 |
| OWL | Financials | 81.7 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 88.5 |
| SWKS | Information Technology | 83.3 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 88.2 |
| TAP | Consumer Staples | 84.6 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 87.9 |
| Ticker | Since close | Vs basket | Read |
|---|
| ACI | -1.13% | +0.20% | diverges |
| OZK | -1.20% | -0.73% | diverges |
| OWL | -1.60% | -1.13% | diverges |
| SWKS | -2.13% | -2.83% | diverges |
| TAP | -1.22% | +0.11% | diverges |
Top opportunity scores are led by ACI at 88.5, OZK at 87.2, TAP at 84.6, SWKS at 83.3, and OWL at 81.7. Each exhibits strong regime fit, with ACI at 91.9, OZK at 91.7, OWL at 88.5, SWKS at 88.2, and TAP at 87.9. However, all five names lack intraday confirmation, with ACI down 1.13% since close, OZK down 1.20%, OWL down 1.60%, SWKS down 2.13%, and TAP down 1.22%.
3D Summary
| Side | Dimension | Basket | Return |
|---|
| best | sector | Energy | +4.46% |
| best | theme | Cloud Software | +2.21% |
| best | theme | Oil & Gas | +0.66% |
| worst | sector | Materials | -3.86% |
| worst | style | Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -3.85% |
| worst | production | Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -3.85% |
| Spread | Move |
|---|
| Momentum - LowVol | -0.29% |
| HighBeta - LowVol | -0.43% |
| Growth - Value | +1.18% |
| Small - Large | -1.46% |
| EqualWeight - CapWeight | -1.34% |
| Credit | +0.83% |
| Duration | -1.34% |
| Semis - Market | +0.04% |
| Momentum Leadership - Broken Momentum | +0.93% |
| Quality - Extended Risk | +0.80% |
Breadth trend: deteriorating.
Over the past three sessions, Energy led with a 4.46% return, followed by Cloud Software at 2.21% and Oil & Gas at 0.66%. The weakest areas were Materials down 3.86% and the Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch basket down 3.85%. Spreads show Growth outpacing Value by 1.18%, while Small underperformed Large by 1.46% and EqualWeight lagged CapWeight by 1.34%. The breadth trend is deteriorating.
WTD Summary
WTD Summary data is identical to the 3D Summary at this point in the period — see that section above.
Week-to-date performance mirrors the three-day snapshot: Energy gained 4.46%, Cloud Software rose 2.21%, and Oil & Gas added 0.66%. Lagging were Materials down 3.86% and the Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch basket down 3.85%. Factor spreads included a 1.18% Growth-over-Value advantage and a 1.46% Small-versus-Large deficit. The breadth trend remains deteriorating.
MTD Summary
| Side | Dimension | Basket | Return |
|---|
| best | production | Extended Momentum Risk | +5.24% |
| best | style | Extended Overbought Momentum | +4.30% |
| best | sector | Energy | +3.95% |
| worst | style | Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -11.98% |
| worst | production | Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -11.98% |
| worst | theme | Semiconductors | -6.18% |
| Spread | Move |
|---|
| Momentum - LowVol | -9.40% |
| HighBeta - LowVol | -7.74% |
| Growth - Value | -3.05% |
| Small - Large | -2.14% |
| EqualWeight - CapWeight | -0.08% |
| Credit | +0.90% |
| Duration | -2.38% |
| Semis - Market | -9.40% |
| Momentum Leadership - Broken Momentum | -6.27% |
| Quality - Extended Risk | -4.67% |
Breadth trend: deteriorating.
Month-to-date, Extended Momentum Risk leads at 5.24%, followed by Extended Overbought Momentum at 4.3% and Energy at 3.95%. The weakest areas are the Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch basket down 11.98% and Semiconductors down 6.18%. Spreads show large de-grossing: Momentum minus LowVol fell 9.4%, HighBeta minus LowVol lost 7.74%, and Growth minus Value declined 3.05%. Small caps underperformed Large by 2.14%. The breadth trend is deteriorating.
Structural View (QTD YTD 1Y 2Y)
| Basket | QTD | YTD | 1Y | 2Y |
|---|
| production: Broken Momentum / Avoid | +0.24% | -17.35% | -16.52% | +11.12% |
| production: Extended Momentum Risk | +5.24% | -13.97% | -25.57% | -3.39% |
| production: Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation | +2.73% | +22.65% | +26.90% | +77.98% |
| production: Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership | -6.03% | +87.64% | +173.58% | +193.56% |
| production: Neutral / Transition | -2.32% | +20.81% | +52.36% | +86.69% |
| production: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -11.98% | +12.60% | +38.87% | +84.73% |
| production: Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend | +0.57% | +11.70% | +18.33% | +37.99% |
| production: Thematic Momentum Leadership | -0.39% | +45.63% | +84.22% | +128.45% |
| theme: AI Infrastructure | -3.28% | +23.11% | +54.55% | +91.13% |
| theme: Cloud Software | +3.30% | +14.50% | +20.51% | +52.20% |
| theme: Commodities / Materials | -4.80% | +13.12% | +52.14% | +99.37% |
| theme: Consumer / Retail | -1.48% | +6.61% | +11.03% | +30.86% |
| theme: Crypto / Digital Assets | +0.01% | +10.41% | +25.22% | +58.04% |
| theme: Cybersecurity | -0.34% | +14.45% | +23.53% | +97.61% |
| theme: Defense / Aerospace | -5.25% | +25.97% | +64.53% | +152.37% |
| theme: Energy Transition | -1.70% | +18.90% | +44.95% | +63.93% |
| theme: Financials / Credit | -0.22% | +11.78% | +20.93% | +46.74% |
| theme: Healthcare / Biotech | +1.82% | +33.99% | +106.16% | +122.08% |
| theme: Housing / Real Estate | -0.85% | +10.75% | +19.39% | +30.65% |
| theme: Industrial Automation | -4.32% | +23.02% | +42.00% | +74.85% |
| theme: Macro Rates / Inflation | -1.97% | +15.18% | +30.97% | +48.66% |
| theme: Oil & Gas | +0.30% | +22.24% | +60.62% | +64.39% |
| theme: Semiconductors | -6.18% | +47.06% | +107.98% | +101.24% |
| sector: Communication Services | +1.35% | -4.23% | +21.72% | +84.00% |
| sector: Consumer Discretionary | -2.34% | +4.30% | +8.82% | +27.23% |
| sector: Consumer Staples | +1.09% | +6.29% | -0.03% | +9.65% |
| sector: Energy | +3.95% | +32.02% | +34.23% | +32.18% |
| sector: Financials | +1.40% | +7.85% | +14.55% | +58.08% |
| sector: Health Care | +2.39% | +28.67% | +79.29% | +87.47% |
| sector: Industrials | -5.15% | +18.29% | +37.26% | +97.71% |
| sector: Information Technology | -4.41% | +38.84% | +93.82% | +133.14% |
| sector: Materials | -3.88% | +19.34% | +40.16% | +50.52% |
| sector: Real Estate | -0.03% | +9.24% | +10.93% | +23.89% |
| sector: Utilities | -0.16% | +7.11% | +14.66% | +47.97% |
| size: Large (>=5B) | -1.27% | +17.93% | +40.33% | +72.61% |
| size: Micro Cap $250M-$1B | -1.04% | +20.37% | +53.16% | +73.13% |
| size: Nano Cap <$250M | -4.16% | +47.85% | +17.76% | +8.50% |
| size: Small Cap $1B-$5B | -0.93% | +21.23% | +50.40% | +74.74% |
| style: Base Building / Coiled | -1.67% | +8.99% | +35.36% | +36.22% |
| style: Extended Overbought Momentum | +4.30% | +33.67% | +54.03% | +95.38% |
| style: Low-Vol Uptrend | +0.05% | +25.89% | +44.47% | +72.52% |
| style: Momentum Breakout / Leadership | +0.73% | +42.90% | +83.52% | +125.53% |
| style: Neutral / Transition | -2.04% | +20.37% | +51.31% | +82.84% |
| style: Normal Vol/Trend | -3.55% | +8.92% | +35.82% | +100.12% |
| style: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -11.98% | +12.60% | +38.87% | +84.73% |
| style: Persistent Uptrend / Compounder | +0.15% | +23.34% | +32.76% | +61.91% |
| style: Weak Downtrend / Avoid Momentum | +0.24% | -17.35% | -16.52% | +11.12% |
The factor regime remains Choppy Neutral with a composite score of -0.1575 and low confidence of 0.1. Underlying components are mixed: trend at 0.15, breadth at 0.1, volatility at 0.5, while rotation is -0.5, size -0.6, and style -1.0. Sector waves show five sectors in late expansion and four in early-cycle basing. Basket waves reveal 75% of Broken Momentum/Avoid names in accumulation, while Quality/Low-Vol Uptrend and Thematic Momentum Leadership exhibit breakout dominance at 30% and 47% share, respectively. The structural backdrop favors continuation of choppy, low-conviction conditions.
Chart Pattern and Wave Census
| Breakouts | Breakdowns | Oversold |
|---|
| 88 | 32 | 43 |
| Setup type | Count |
|---|
| double_top | 8 |
| bear_flag | 8 |
| tight_base | 8 |
| donchian_breakdown | 8 |
| double_bottom | 8 |
| donchian_breakout | 8 |
| bull_flag | 8 |
| head_shoulders | 8 |
| gap_up_unfilled | 3 |
| Ticker | Pattern | Direction | Score |
|---|
| SYF | donchian_breakdown | short | 79.3 |
| D | donchian_breakout | long | 70.1 |
| LNC | double_bottom | long | 69.7 |
| CWEN | double_top | short | 64.2 |
| TECH | gap_up_unfilled | long | 60.3 |
| SMCI | head_shoulders | short | 58.4 |
| CWAN | donchian_breakout | long | 54.5 |
| PSKY | double_top | short | 54.1 |
| RIOT | double_top | short | 52.1 |
| RBLX | double_bottom | long | 28.8 |
| Ticker | From stage | To stage |
|---|
| STWD | accumulation | pullback |
| OUT | pullback | breakout |
| CGON | pullback | breakout |
| PPC | accumulation | pullback |
| D | pullback | breakout |
| AROC | pullback | breakout |
| HST | pullback | markup |
| KMI | pullback | breakout |
| MARA | pullback | markup |
| VIRT | mixed | breakout |
| CLF | mixed | accumulation |
| RAL | mixed | breakout |
| SIRI | mixed | breakout |
| SNDR | mixed | pullback |
| ESI | mixed | breakout |
The pattern census shows 88 breakouts against 32 breakdowns, with 43 names in oversold territory. Setup counts are balanced: double_top 8, bear_flag 8, tight_base 8, donchian_breakdown 8, double_bottom 8, donchian_breakout 8, bull_flag 8, head_shoulders 8, and only 3 gap_up_unfilled. Top scoring setups include SYF donchian_breakdown at 79.26 and D donchian_breakout at 70.1. Notable wave transitions include six names moving from pullback to breakout, led by D, CGON, AROC, KMI, RAL, and ESI.
Tomorrow Setup
| Spread | Legs | Intraday | D1 | WTD | MTD |
|---|
| Momentum - LowVol | MTUM − USMV | +1.48% | +1.48% | -0.29% | -9.40% |
| HighBeta - LowVol | SPHB − SPLV | +1.18% | +1.18% | -0.43% | -7.74% |
| Growth - Value | IWF − IWD | +1.40% | +1.40% | +1.18% | -3.05% |
| Small - Large | IWM − SPY | -0.61% | -0.61% | -1.46% | -2.14% |
| EqualWeight - CapWeight | RSP − SPY | -0.87% | -0.87% | -1.34% | -0.08% |
| Credit | HYG − LQD | +0.07% | +0.07% | +0.83% | +0.90% |
| Duration | TLT | -0.22% | -0.22% | -1.34% | -2.38% |
| Semis - Market | SMH − SPY | +2.30% | +2.30% | +0.04% | -9.40% |
| Momentum Leadership - Broken Momentum | Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership − Broken Momentum / Avoid | +1.39% | +1.39% | +0.93% | -6.27% |
| Quality - Extended Risk | Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend − Extended Momentum Risk | +1.25% | +1.25% | +0.80% | -4.67% |
The regime remains Choppy Neutral. Tomorrow's top opportunity screen includes ACI (opportunity score 88.5, regime fit 91.9, Broken Momentum / Avoid, Wave 1 / accumulation), OZK (87.2, 91.7, Neutral / Transition, Mixed / transition), OWL (81.7, 88.5, Neutral / Transition, Wave 1 / accumulation), SWKS (83.3, 88.2, Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch, Wave 1 / accumulation), and TAP (84.6, 87.9, Broken Momentum / Avoid, Wave 1 / accumulation). However, early intraday action has not confirmed these setups: ACI since-close -1.13% vs basket +0.2%, OZK -1.20% vs -0.73%, OWL -1.60% vs -1.13%, SWKS -2.13% vs -2.83%, TAP -1.22% vs +0.11%. All confirmation flags false.
Data Quality and Coverage
| Source | As of |
|---|
| intraday_bars | 2026-07-08T19:45:00-04:00 |
| warehouse_snapshot | 2026-07-08 |
| proxy_daily | 2026-07-07 |
| screener_artifact | 2026-07-08T20:33:12.166787-04:00 |
| grouped_daily | 2026-07-08 |
- Overall coverage: 99.5%
- Degraded baskets: theme:Healthcare / Biotech
- Missing archived report days: 2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07
- Report generated at 2026-07-09T03:13:02-04:00; every figure above is computed deterministically from report.json