Data as of 2026-07-09T15:45:00-04:00 (Polygon intraday bars are 15-minute delayed). Every figure is computed deterministically from report.json before narration.
Session Snapshot
| Proxy | Name | Group | Last | Since Close | Gap | Since Open | RVol |
|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | index | 751.28 | +0.79% | +0.26% | +0.53% | 0.61 |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | index | 722.93 | +1.62% | +0.97% | +0.64% | 0.70 |
| DIA | Dow Industrials | index | 523.77 | +0.19% | +0.17% | +0.02% | 0.57 |
| IWM | Russell 2000 | index | 297.45 | +1.35% | +0.61% | +0.74% | 0.59 |
| MDY | S&P MidCap 400 | index | 691.20 | +1.43% | +0.69% | +0.74% | 0.44 |
| IJR | S&P SmallCap 600 | index | 145.57 | +1.31% | +0.68% | +0.62% | 0.49 |
| RSP | S&P 500 Equal Weight | index | 213.54 | +0.63% | +0.30% | +0.33% | 0.65 |
| VTI | Total US Market | index | 371.42 | +0.86% | +0.33% | +0.53% | 1.09 |
| XLK | Technology | sector | 185.53 | +2.28% | +1.85% | +0.42% | 0.62 |
| XLF | Financials | sector | 55.48 | +0.92% | +0.18% | +0.74% | 0.68 |
| XLE | Energy | sector | 54.84 | -1.38% | -0.58% | -0.80% | 0.64 |
| XLV | Health Care | sector | 161.98 | -0.20% | -0.31% | +0.11% | 0.96 |
| XLI | Industrials | sector | 180.92 | +0.28% | +1.11% | -0.83% | 0.67 |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | sector | 116.64 | +1.16% | -0.50% | +1.67% | 0.81 |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | sector | 83.24 | -1.36% | -1.00% | -0.37% | 0.87 |
| XLU | Utilities | sector | 45.10 | -0.56% | +0.43% | -0.99% | 1.00 |
| XLB | Materials | sector | 50.39 | +0.46% | +0.42% | +0.04% | 0.86 |
| XLC | Communication Services | sector | 110.28 | +0.74% | -1.26% | +2.03% | 0.77 |
| XLRE | Real Estate | sector | 44.27 | +0.26% | +0.11% | +0.15% | 0.55 |
| MTUM | Momentum Factor | style | 321.63 | +2.15% | +3.20% | -1.02% | 1.13 |
| VLUE | Value Factor | style | 195.47 | +2.09% | +1.85% | +0.24% | 0.56 |
| QUAL | Quality Factor | style | 218.31 | +0.64% | +0.44% | +0.20% | 1.35 |
| USMV | Min Volatility | style | 97.56 | -0.09% | -0.03% | -0.06% | 0.63 |
| SPLV | Low Volatility | style | 75.48 | -0.49% | -0.09% | -0.40% | 0.41 |
| SPHB | High Beta | style | 149.88 | +2.98% | +2.15% | +0.81% | 1.01 |
| IWF | Russell 1000 Growth | style | 123.34 | +1.27% | +0.70% | +0.57% | 0.62 |
| IWD | Russell 1000 Value | style | 246.23 | +0.42% | -0.21% | +0.63% | 0.40 |
| VUG | Vanguard Growth | style | 86.94 | +1.10% | +0.19% | +0.92% | 1.24 |
| VTV | Vanguard Value | style | 218.53 | +0.41% | +0.22% | +0.19% | 1.15 |
| SMH | Semiconductors | theme | 608.99 | +2.70% | +3.79% | -1.05% | 0.80 |
| XBI | Biotech | theme | 164.32 | +0.83% | -0.10% | +0.93% | 0.77 |
| ITA | Aerospace & Defense | theme | 239.62 | -0.00% | +0.41% | -0.41% | 0.60 |
| KRE | Regional Banks | theme | 74.70 | +1.86% | +0.46% | +1.39% | 0.71 |
| XHB | Homebuilders | theme | 107.77 | +1.63% | +1.03% | +0.60% | 0.50 |
| TAN | Solar | theme | 55.07 | +1.72% | +0.98% | +0.73% | 0.30 |
| TLT | 20+yr Treasuries | cross_asset | 84.51 | +0.18% | -0.09% | +0.27% | 0.73 |
| IEF | 7-10yr Treasuries | cross_asset | 93.72 | +0.23% | +0.09% | +0.14% | 0.49 |
| HYG | High Yield Credit | cross_asset | 79.78 | +0.15% | +0.09% | +0.06% | 0.71 |
| LQD | IG Credit | cross_asset | 107.76 | +0.08% | +0.04% | +0.05% | 0.95 |
| GLD | Gold | cross_asset | 378.02 | +0.95% | +1.08% | -0.13% | 0.61 |
| USO | Oil | cross_asset | 108.99 | -2.87% | -1.22% | -1.67% | 0.94 |
| UUP | US Dollar | cross_asset | 28.36 | +0.00% | -0.04% | +0.04% | 0.80 |
Large caps added 0.79% after a 0.18% open gap, strengthening through the session with a 0.63% intraday gain. Breadth tilted positive with 571 advancing issues against 427 declining, and 74.47% of baskets closing higher. The session featured a pronounced rotation toward beaten-down areas, with the Oversold/Mean-Reversion Watch basket surging 3.18%, while Extended Overbought Momentum shed 1.66%. Volume remained subdued on average, with median relative volume across production baskets reading between 0.52 and 0.68, suggesting institutional participation was concentrated in select names rather than broad-based.
Intraday Factor Moves
| Basket | N | Since Close | Gap | Since Open | Breadth | RVol | Coverage |
|---|
| Broken Momentum / Avoid | 135 | -0.48% | -1.27% | +0.82% | 37.8% adv | 0.60 | 100.0% |
| Extended Momentum Risk | 5 | -3.03% | -3.36% | +0.35% | 0.0% adv | 0.38 | 100.0% |
| Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation | 22 | -0.17% | -1.36% | +1.22% | 27.3% adv | 0.58 | 100.0% |
| Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership | 11 | +2.70% | +3.97% | -1.16% | 63.6% adv | 0.61 | 100.0% |
| Neutral / Transition | 380 | +1.49% | +0.94% | +0.58% | 62.3% adv | 0.56 | 99.7% |
| Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | 43 | +3.26% | +3.05% | +0.23% | 88.1% adv | 0.68 | 100.0% |
| Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend | 241 | +0.03% | -0.36% | +0.39% | 47.9% adv | 0.52 | 98.8% |
| Thematic Momentum Leadership | 169 | +0.80% | -0.25% | +1.06% | 71.0% adv | 0.53 | 100.0% |
Factor returns revealed a sharp mean-reversion bias. The Oversold/Mean-Reversion Watch basket jumped 3.18%, far outpacing all other styles, while Normal Vol/Trend and Neutral/Transition baskets gained 1.80% and 1.30%, respectively. In contrast, Extended Overbought Momentum dropped 1.66% and Weak Downtrend/Avoid Momentum slipped 0.48%. Quality/Low-Vol Uptrend and Persistent Uptrend managed modest 0.36% and 0.34% gains. This pattern reversed recent momentum leadership and pointed to a fragile, choppy environment where short-term oversold conditions are being actively traded against.
Sector Rotation
| Basket | N | Since Close | Gap | Since Open | Breadth | RVol | Coverage |
|---|
| Communication Services | 44 | +0.09% | -1.52% | +1.65% | 51.2% adv | 0.53 | 97.7% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 106 | +0.63% | -0.67% | +1.32% | 64.2% adv | 0.54 | 100.0% |
| Consumer Staples | 47 | -1.81% | -1.69% | -0.13% | 21.3% adv | 0.63 | 100.0% |
| Energy | 40 | -0.01% | +0.74% | -0.75% | 40.0% adv | 0.62 | 100.0% |
| Financials | 149 | +0.62% | -0.42% | +1.05% | 52.0% adv | 0.56 | 99.3% |
| Health Care | 128 | +0.24% | -0.62% | +0.88% | 59.8% adv | 0.49 | 99.2% |
| Industrials | 177 | +0.45% | +0.68% | -0.22% | 63.6% adv | 0.54 | 100.0% |
| Information Technology | 166 | +3.77% | +2.37% | +1.49% | 77.0% adv | 0.61 | 99.4% |
| Materials | 39 | +0.08% | +0.41% | -0.32% | 46.1% adv | 0.59 | 100.0% |
| Real Estate | 66 | -0.14% | -0.35% | +0.22% | 45.5% adv | 0.44 | 100.0% |
| Utilities | 44 | -0.33% | +0.16% | -0.50% | 34.1% adv | 0.53 | 100.0% |
Technology themes dominated the day, with Semiconductors up 2.96%, AI Infrastructure up 1.73%, and Cloud Software gaining 1.40%. Industrials and Crypto also outperformed, rising 1.66% and 1.44%. Defensive and rate-sensitive areas lagged: Healthcare added just 0.15% and Housing/Real Estate barely moved at 0.05%. The sector wave map places Utilities, Health Care, and Real Estate in Late Acceleration, while Consumer Staples and Technology sit in Basing/Early-Cycle, hinting at a transitionary rotation that favors early-cycle growth over extended defensive positions.
Themes and Keyword Baskets
| Theme | N | Intraday | WTD | MTD | Breadth |
|---|
| Semiconductors | 247 | +2.96% | -0.71% | -5.04% | 72.4% adv |
| AI Infrastructure | 830 | +1.73% | -0.84% | -2.38% | 62.5% adv |
| Industrial Automation | 491 | +1.66% | -1.32% | -3.51% | 64.5% adv |
| Crypto / Digital Assets | 151 | +1.44% | -0.28% | +1.17% | 63.9% adv |
| Cloud Software | 262 | +1.40% | +2.99% | +4.07% | 58.0% adv |
| Commodities / Materials | 184 | +0.53% | -2.81% | -4.16% | 59.5% adv |
| Financials / Credit | 677 | +0.46% | -0.74% | +0.79% | 53.5% adv |
| Oil & Gas | 370 | +0.31% | +0.90% | +0.53% | 51.2% adv |
| Consumer / Retail | 486 | +0.26% | -1.75% | -0.47% | 53.0% adv |
| Housing / Real Estate | 423 | +0.05% | -0.82% | -0.29% | 50.9% adv |
Semiconductors led the session with a 2.03% gain on 72.4% advancing breadth, though volume was thin at 60% of median. Cloud Software (+0.87%) and Healthcare/Biotech (+0.06%) are notable MTD outperformers at +4.07% and +2.30% respectively, with Healthcare/Biotech showing exceptional 1-year strength of +102.6%. In contrast, Commodities/Materials extended its slide with a -2.98% three-day return and -4.16% MTD.
Size and Breadth
| Size bucket | N | Intraday | D1 | WTD | Breadth |
|---|
| Large (>=5B) | 1006 | +0.79% | +0.79% | -0.47% | 57.0% adv |
| Micro Cap $250M-$1B | 228 | n/a | +0.00% | -1.19% | 0.0% adv |
| Nano Cap <$250M | 21 | n/a | +0.00% | -0.15% | 0.0% adv |
| Small Cap $1B-$5B | 829 | n/a | +0.00% | -0.68% | 0.0% adv |
| % > SMA50 | % > SMA200 | Advancers | Decliners | % Baskets Positive |
|---|
| 63.0% | 67.4% | 571 | 427 | 74.5% |
Large caps (+0.79%) outperformed small caps (flat) in a day dominated by a sharp 3.18% bounce in the Oversold/Mean-Reversion Watch basket on 88.1% advancing breadth and 68% of median volume. However, broader breadth remains mixed with just 62.99% of constituents above their 50-day moving average and an advance-decline ratio of 571/427. Extended Overbought Momentum lost -1.66%, while Persistent Uptrend/Compounder and Base Building/Coiled styles posted modest gains of 0.34% and 0.55% respectively.
Volume and Participation
| Dimension | Basket | Median RVol | % Members RVol>1.5 |
|---|
| production | Broken Momentum / Avoid | 0.60 | 3.0% |
| production | Extended Momentum Risk | 0.38 | 0.0% |
| production | Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation | 0.58 | 0.0% |
| production | Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership | 0.61 | 0.0% |
| production | Neutral / Transition | 0.56 | 1.6% |
| production | Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | 0.68 | 4.8% |
| production | Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend | 0.52 | 0.8% |
| production | Thematic Momentum Leadership | 0.53 | 2.4% |
| Ticker | Basket | RVol | Return | Note |
|---|
| IONS | Thematic Momentum Leadership | 10.85 | -25.28% | distribution volume |
| BBIO | Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend | 5.62 | +15.21% | breakout volume |
| ALNY | Neutral / Transition | 5.30 | -3.06% | distribution volume |
| LEVI | Thematic Momentum Leadership | 3.81 | -3.87% | distribution volume |
Volume across factor baskets remains subdued, with median relative volumes ranging from 0.38 (Extended Momentum Risk) to 0.68 (Oversold/Mean-Reversion Watch). Only 4.8% of Oversold/Mean-Reversion Watch members exceeded 1.5x typical volume, indicating broad participation was light despite the day’s sharp bounce. Anomalous volume events were concentrated in single names: IONS fell -25.28% on 10.85x volume (distribution), while BBIO surged 15.21% on 5.62x volume (breakout). ALNY and LEVI also printed outsized distribution volume, but overall institutional participation remained muted.
Regime Assessment
| Label | Confidence | Composite |
|---|
| Choppy Neutral | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| Component | Score [−2..+2] | Key inputs |
|---|
| trend | 0.9 | spy_vs_sma50_pct=1.5735, spy_vs_sma200_pct=8.3158, sma20_slope_sign=-1.0, d3_pct=0.0 |
| breadth | 1.1 | pct_above_sma50=62.99, pct_above_sma200=67.36, adv_dec_ratio=1.337, pct_baskets_positive=74.47 |
| volatility | 0.0 | rv20_pctile_2y=75.2, tr_vs_atr20=0.595, atr20_method=true_range, intraday_range_vs_20d=0.641 |
| rotation | -1.0 | spearman_d1_vs_w1=-0.7857, spearman_wtd_vs_m1=0.1667, leadership_flip=False |
| size | 0.1 | small_large_d1=0.5639, small_large_w1=-1.3649, small_large_m1=3.064, smallmid_vs_5b_d1=-0.787 |
| style | -0.8 | mom_lowvol_w1=-2.6635, hibeta_lowvol_w1=-1.9146, growth_value_w1=-0.6994, credit_w1=0.8841 |
| Wave stage | Sectors |
|---|
| Expansion / late acceleration | 5 |
| Basing / early-cycle | 4 |
| Reset within trend | 2 |
The regime remains Choppy Neutral (confidence 0.16) with a composite of 0.24. Trend signals are mixed: SPY trades 1.57% above its 50-day and 8.32% above its 200-day, but the 20-day slope is negative. Breadth is slightly positive with 62.99% above the 50-day, yet rotation is aggressively negative (d1 vs. w1 rank correlation -0.79) as daily reversals dominate. Volatility persists in the 75th percentile historically. Style factors show a defensive bias, with Momentum underperforming Low Vol by -2.66% over the week and High Beta below Low Vol by -1.91%. Size dynamics were inconclusive intraday but small caps outperformed over the month (+3.06%).
Opportunity Watchlist
| Ticker | Sector | Opportunity | Wave stage | Regime fit |
|---|
| ACI | Consumer Staples | 88.5 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 91.9 |
| OZK | Financials | 87.2 | Mixed / transition | 91.7 |
| OWL | Financials | 81.7 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 88.5 |
| SWKS | Information Technology | 83.3 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 88.2 |
| TAP | Consumer Staples | 84.6 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 87.9 |
| Ticker | Since close | Vs basket | Read |
|---|
| ACI | +1.17% | +1.65% | confirms |
| OZK | +1.78% | +0.29% | confirms |
| OWL | -0.37% | -1.86% | diverges |
| SWKS | +0.71% | -2.55% | confirms |
| TAP | -1.31% | -0.83% | diverges |
The opportunity screener highlights ACI (score 88.5) in Consumer Staples, showing a Wave 1 accumulation pattern with a 91.9 regime-fit; the name confirmed intraday with a 1.17% gain. OZK (87.2) and OWL (81.7) also rank highly in Financials, though OWL failed to confirm. SWKS (83.3) in Technology bounced from oversold levels, confirming upside. Top technical setups include a donchian breakdown short in SYF (score 79.26) and a breakout long in D (70.1), while double-bottom patterns in LNC (69.7) offer contrarian long entries.
Multi-Horizon Context
| Basket | D3 | WTD | MTD |
|---|
| production: Broken Momentum / Avoid | -1.40% | -1.71% | +0.61% |
| production: Extended Momentum Risk | -2.29% | -2.55% | +4.97% |
| production: Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation | -0.84% | -0.26% | +3.60% |
| production: Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership | -0.37% | +0.37% | -4.73% |
| production: Neutral / Transition | -0.29% | +0.15% | -1.12% |
| production: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -1.44% | -1.88% | -10.28% |
| production: Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend | -1.03% | -0.97% | +1.11% |
| production: Thematic Momentum Leadership | -0.28% | +0.18% | +0.94% |
| theme: AI Infrastructure | -1.59% | -0.84% | -2.38% |
| theme: Cloud Software | -0.10% | +2.99% | +4.07% |
| theme: Commodities / Materials | -2.98% | -2.81% | -4.16% |
| theme: Consumer / Retail | -1.08% | -1.75% | -0.47% |
| theme: Crypto / Digital Assets | -1.40% | -0.28% | +1.17% |
| theme: Cybersecurity | -0.99% | +0.27% | +0.43% |
| theme: Defense / Aerospace | -3.20% | -2.76% | -4.82% |
| theme: Energy Transition | -1.28% | -1.00% | -1.07% |
| theme: Financials / Credit | -1.16% | -0.74% | +0.79% |
| theme: Healthcare / Biotech | +0.67% | +0.80% | +2.30% |
| theme: Housing / Real Estate | -1.72% | -0.82% | -0.29% |
| theme: Industrial Automation | -1.78% | -1.32% | -3.51% |
| theme: Macro Rates / Inflation | -1.12% | -1.26% | -1.17% |
| theme: Oil & Gas | +1.10% | +0.90% | +0.53% |
| theme: Semiconductors | -1.40% | -0.71% | -5.04% |
| sector: Communication Services | -0.25% | -0.56% | +2.03% |
| sector: Consumer Discretionary | -1.09% | -1.63% | -1.01% |
| sector: Consumer Staples | -1.70% | -2.93% | +0.31% |
| sector: Energy | +3.61% | +3.20% | +2.71% |
| sector: Financials | -0.87% | +0.34% | +2.81% |
| sector: Health Care | +0.41% | +0.27% | +3.27% |
| sector: Industrials | -2.85% | -2.32% | -4.36% |
| sector: Information Technology | +0.72% | +2.03% | -2.09% |
| sector: Materials | -3.03% | -3.45% | -3.48% |
| sector: Real Estate | -0.60% | -1.28% | +0.38% |
| sector: Utilities | -0.18% | -1.19% | -0.32% |
| size: Large (>=5B) | -0.69% | -0.47% | -0.31% |
| size: Micro Cap $250M-$1B | -1.41% | -1.19% | -0.92% |
| size: Nano Cap <$250M | -0.10% | -0.15% | -3.23% |
| size: Small Cap $1B-$5B | -1.42% | -0.68% | -0.49% |
| style: Base Building / Coiled | -1.15% | -0.91% | -0.83% |
| style: Extended Overbought Momentum | -1.04% | -0.73% | +4.15% |
| style: Low-Vol Uptrend | -0.63% | -0.40% | +0.92% |
| style: Momentum Breakout / Leadership | -0.65% | -0.22% | +2.32% |
| style: Neutral / Transition | -0.47% | -0.02% | -0.93% |
| style: Normal Vol/Trend | -0.45% | -0.28% | -2.31% |
| style: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -1.44% | -1.88% | -10.28% |
| style: Persistent Uptrend / Compounder | -0.57% | -0.48% | +0.90% |
| style: Weak Downtrend / Avoid Momentum | -1.40% | -1.71% | +0.61% |
WTD: best Energy +3.20%, worst Materials -3.45%; breadth deteriorating.
Data Quality and Coverage
| Source | As of |
|---|
| intraday_bars | 2026-07-09T15:45:00-04:00 |
| warehouse_snapshot | 2026-07-09 |
| proxy_daily | 2026-07-08 |
| screener_artifact | 2026-07-08T20:33:12.166787-04:00 |
| grouped_daily | unavailable |
- Overall coverage: 99.5%
- Degraded baskets: theme:Healthcare / Biotech
- Missing archived report days: 2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07
- Report generated at 2026-07-09T16:00:34-04:00; every figure above is computed deterministically from report.json
- Narration: 1 of 9 sections used the deterministic fallback (multi_horizon); all other sections are LLM-narrated