Data as of 2026-07-09T12:45:00-04:00 (Polygon intraday bars are 15-minute delayed). Every figure is computed deterministically from report.json before narration.
Session Snapshot
| Proxy | Name | Group | Last | Since Close | Gap | Since Open | RVol |
|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | index | 750.65 | +0.70% | +0.26% | +0.44% | 0.86 |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | index | 722.15 | +1.51% | +0.97% | +0.53% | 1.06 |
| DIA | Dow Industrials | index | 524.65 | +0.36% | +0.17% | +0.19% | 0.65 |
| IWM | Russell 2000 | index | 297.20 | +1.27% | +0.61% | +0.65% | 0.86 |
| MDY | S&P MidCap 400 | index | 693.70 | +1.79% | +0.69% | +1.10% | 0.52 |
| IJR | S&P SmallCap 600 | index | 145.65 | +1.36% | +0.68% | +0.68% | 0.70 |
| RSP | S&P 500 Equal Weight | index | 214.06 | +0.87% | +0.30% | +0.57% | 0.92 |
| VTI | Total US Market | index | 371.21 | +0.80% | +0.33% | +0.47% | 1.24 |
| XLK | Technology | sector | 185.78 | +2.41% | +1.85% | +0.55% | 0.97 |
| XLF | Financials | sector | 55.63 | +1.21% | +0.18% | +1.03% | 0.82 |
| XLE | Energy | sector | 55.00 | -1.08% | -0.58% | -0.51% | 0.97 |
| XLV | Health Care | sector | 161.57 | -0.45% | -0.31% | -0.14% | 1.37 |
| XLI | Industrials | sector | 181.92 | +0.83% | +1.11% | -0.28% | 0.94 |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | sector | 116.23 | +0.81% | -0.50% | +1.32% | 1.15 |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | sector | 83.50 | -1.05% | -1.00% | -0.05% | 1.36 |
| XLU | Utilities | sector | 45.35 | -0.01% | +0.43% | -0.44% | 1.34 |
| XLB | Materials | sector | 50.41 | +0.51% | +0.42% | +0.09% | 1.22 |
| XLC | Communication Services | sector | 109.69 | +0.21% | -1.26% | +1.49% | 0.98 |
| XLRE | Real Estate | sector | 44.41 | +0.59% | +0.11% | +0.48% | 0.80 |
| MTUM | Momentum Factor | style | 324.21 | +2.97% | +3.20% | -0.22% | 1.59 |
| VLUE | Value Factor | style | 196.25 | +2.50% | +1.85% | +0.64% | 0.35 |
| QUAL | Quality Factor | style | 218.39 | +0.68% | +0.44% | +0.24% | 1.67 |
| USMV | Min Volatility | style | 97.69 | +0.04% | -0.03% | +0.07% | 0.84 |
| SPLV | Low Volatility | style | 75.72 | -0.18% | -0.09% | -0.09% | 0.54 |
| SPHB | High Beta | style | 150.64 | +3.50% | +2.15% | +1.33% | 1.52 |
| IWF | Russell 1000 Growth | style | 123.17 | +1.13% | +0.70% | +0.43% | 0.70 |
| IWD | Russell 1000 Value | style | 246.26 | +0.43% | -0.21% | +0.65% | 0.59 |
| VUG | Vanguard Growth | style | 86.64 | +0.75% | +0.19% | +0.56% | 1.79 |
| VTV | Vanguard Value | style | 219.21 | +0.72% | +0.22% | +0.50% | 1.67 |
| SMH | Semiconductors | theme | 612.95 | +3.36% | +3.79% | -0.41% | 1.32 |
| XBI | Biotech | theme | 163.53 | +0.35% | -0.10% | +0.45% | 1.28 |
| ITA | Aerospace & Defense | theme | 240.23 | +0.25% | +0.41% | -0.16% | 0.78 |
| KRE | Regional Banks | theme | 74.77 | +1.94% | +0.46% | +1.47% | 0.98 |
| XHB | Homebuilders | theme | 108.06 | +1.91% | +1.03% | +0.87% | 0.65 |
| TAN | Solar | theme | 54.97 | +1.52% | +0.98% | +0.54% | 0.44 |
| TLT | 20+yr Treasuries | cross_asset | 84.50 | +0.16% | -0.09% | +0.26% | 0.96 |
| IEF | 7-10yr Treasuries | cross_asset | 93.74 | +0.25% | +0.09% | +0.16% | 0.54 |
| HYG | High Yield Credit | cross_asset | 79.81 | +0.19% | +0.09% | +0.11% | 0.94 |
| LQD | IG Credit | cross_asset | 107.89 | +0.20% | +0.04% | +0.16% | 1.05 |
| GLD | Gold | cross_asset | 379.19 | +1.27% | +1.08% | +0.18% | 1.05 |
| USO | Oil | cross_asset | 109.17 | -2.71% | -1.22% | -1.51% | 1.35 |
| UUP | US Dollar | cross_asset | 28.34 | -0.05% | -0.04% | -0.02% | 1.07 |
Midday markets exhibit a choppy but positive tone, with 78.72% of baskets advancing on breadth of 588 advancers to 410 decliners. Leading themes include Semiconductors, up 3.3% since close, and AI Infrastructure, up 1.99%. The overall regime composite registers 0.24, consistent with a Choppy Neutral label, as large-cap stocks contribute to intraday gains while small caps are flat. Volume is concentrated in mean-reversion and breakout names.
Intraday Factor Moves
| Basket | N | Since Close | Gap | Since Open | Breadth | RVol | Coverage |
|---|
| Broken Momentum / Avoid | 135 | -0.43% | -1.33% | +0.90% | 42.2% adv | 0.71 | 100.0% |
| Extended Momentum Risk | 5 | -3.16% | -3.36% | +0.22% | 0.0% adv | 0.44 | 100.0% |
| Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation | 22 | +0.06% | -1.36% | +1.45% | 36.4% adv | 0.74 | 100.0% |
| Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership | 11 | +3.55% | +3.97% | -0.38% | 63.6% adv | 0.81 | 100.0% |
| Neutral / Transition | 380 | +1.75% | +0.93% | +0.86% | 63.8% adv | 0.68 | 99.7% |
| Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | 43 | +3.73% | +3.05% | +0.68% | 85.7% adv | 0.86 | 100.0% |
| Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend | 241 | +0.22% | -0.36% | +0.60% | 54.0% adv | 0.59 | 98.8% |
| Thematic Momentum Leadership | 169 | +0.93% | -0.25% | +1.19% | 66.1% adv | 0.63 | 100.0% |
Week-to-date factor moves show strong momentum and high-beta leadership: Momentum minus Low Vol spread stands at 2.64 percentage points, High Beta minus Low Vol at 3.20, and Growth minus Value at 1.89. Meanwhile, Small minus Large is negative at -0.92 and Equal Weight minus Cap Weight at -1.19, underscoring a large-cap growth bias. The spread between Momentum Leadership and Broken Momentum is 2.83 points, confirming risk-on preference within choppy conditions.
Sector Rotation
| Basket | N | Since Close | Gap | Since Open | Breadth | RVol | Coverage |
|---|
| Communication Services | 44 | -0.07% | -1.52% | +1.48% | 48.8% adv | 0.58 | 97.7% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 106 | +0.80% | -0.67% | +1.48% | 63.2% adv | 0.66 | 100.0% |
| Consumer Staples | 47 | -1.36% | -1.60% | +0.31% | 23.4% adv | 0.79 | 100.0% |
| Energy | 40 | +0.38% | +0.74% | -0.36% | 50.0% adv | 0.78 | 100.0% |
| Financials | 149 | +0.82% | -0.43% | +1.27% | 57.1% adv | 0.66 | 99.3% |
| Health Care | 128 | -0.07% | -0.62% | +0.56% | 52.8% adv | 0.62 | 99.2% |
| Industrials | 177 | +0.94% | +0.66% | +0.28% | 68.8% adv | 0.63 | 100.0% |
| Information Technology | 166 | +4.00% | +2.29% | +1.76% | 75.2% adv | 0.81 | 99.4% |
| Materials | 39 | +0.36% | +0.41% | -0.05% | 53.9% adv | 0.74 | 100.0% |
| Real Estate | 66 | +0.13% | -0.35% | +0.49% | 53.0% adv | 0.49 | 100.0% |
| Utilities | 44 | +0.08% | +0.16% | -0.09% | 40.9% adv | 0.54 | 100.0% |
Sector rotation week-to-date favors Energy, up 3.59%, and Information Technology, up 2.23%, while Materials lags at -3.18%. The sector wave map places Utilities and Health Care in late-cycle expansion, Consumer Staples and Industrials in early-cycle basing, and Consumer Discretionary in a reset within trend. Utilities' average opportunity score of 68.94 leads, suggesting defensive rotation amid choppy markets, though Energy's absolute performance dominates.
Themes and Keyword Baskets
| Theme | N | Intraday | WTD | MTD | Breadth |
|---|
| Semiconductors | 247 | +3.30% | -0.49% | -4.86% | 73.0% adv |
| Industrial Automation | 491 | +2.06% | -1.11% | -3.31% | 69.4% adv |
| AI Infrastructure | 830 | +1.99% | -0.69% | -2.26% | 63.5% adv |
| Crypto / Digital Assets | 151 | +1.60% | -0.17% | +1.28% | 66.7% adv |
| Cloud Software | 262 | +1.49% | +3.03% | +4.09% | 58.0% adv |
| Energy Transition | 1123 | +0.78% | -0.90% | -0.98% | 58.0% adv |
| Financials / Credit | 677 | +0.66% | -0.65% | +0.88% | 55.7% adv |
| Oil & Gas | 370 | +0.59% | +1.06% | +0.68% | 53.7% adv |
| Consumer / Retail | 486 | +0.44% | -1.65% | -0.37% | 54.0% adv |
| Housing / Real Estate | 423 | +0.36% | -0.66% | -0.13% | 57.4% adv |
Thematic performance is mixed intraday. Semiconductors lead, gaining 3.3% since close, supported by 73% advancing breadth and moderate relative volume (rvol 0.79). AI Infrastructure adds 1.99%, benefitting from 63.5% breadth. Conversely, Healthcare/Biotech shows only 0.1% intraday, with degraded coverage and 50% breadth. Crypto/Digital Assets edge up 1.6% with 66.7% breadth. Cloud Software and Cybersecurity continue recent strength, posting day-1 gains of 0.93% and 0.78% respectively.
Size and Breadth
| Size bucket | N | Intraday | D1 | WTD | Breadth |
|---|
| Large (>=5B) | 1006 | +1.00% | +0.99% | -0.27% | 58.9% adv |
| Micro Cap $250M-$1B | 228 | n/a | +0.00% | -1.19% | 0.0% adv |
| Nano Cap <$250M | 21 | n/a | +0.00% | -0.15% | 0.0% adv |
| Small Cap $1B-$5B | 829 | n/a | +0.00% | -0.68% | 0.0% adv |
| % > SMA50 | % > SMA200 | Advancers | Decliners | % Baskets Positive |
|---|
| 65.3% | 67.8% | 588 | 410 | 78.7% |
Large-cap stocks (≥$5B) lead midday with a 1.0% advance, while small-cap and micro-cap names show flat intraday returns. Breadth remains healthy: 65.27% of stocks are above the 50-day moving average and 67.76% above the 200-day. Overall, 78.72% of baskets are positive, reflecting broad-based but shallow participation skewed toward larger names. Micro Cap $250M-$1B returns 0.0% intraday but shows strong month-over-month performance at 22.03%.
Volume and Participation
| Dimension | Basket | Median RVol | % Members RVol>1.5 |
|---|
| production | Broken Momentum / Avoid | 0.71 | 5.9% |
| production | Extended Momentum Risk | 0.44 | 0.0% |
| production | Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation | 0.74 | 4.5% |
| production | Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership | 0.81 | 9.1% |
| production | Neutral / Transition | 0.68 | 4.2% |
| production | Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | 0.86 | 11.9% |
| production | Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend | 0.59 | 2.5% |
| production | Thematic Momentum Leadership | 0.63 | 4.8% |
| Ticker | Basket | RVol | Return | Note |
|---|
| IONS | Thematic Momentum Leadership | 17.57 | -25.28% | distribution volume |
| BBIO | Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend | 8.54 | +14.57% | breakout volume |
| PSKY | Broken Momentum / Avoid | 4.11 | -5.25% | distribution volume |
| MARA | Neutral / Transition | 3.71 | +13.76% | breakout volume |
| RIVN | Neutral / Transition | 2.98 | +14.36% | breakout volume |
Volume behavior highlights rotation into mean-reversion candidates. The Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch basket exhibits the highest median relative volume at 0.86, with 11.9% of members exceeding 1.5x normal volume. Notable anomalies include IONS (rvol 17.57, -25.28% on distribution) and BBIO (rvol 8.54, +14.57% on breakout). Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation shows moderate participation at rvol 0.74, while Extended Momentum Risk remains quiet at rvol 0.44 with no stocks above 1.5x.
Regime Assessment
| Label | Confidence | Composite |
|---|
| Choppy Neutral | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| Component | Score [−2..+2] | Key inputs |
|---|
| trend | 0.9 | spy_vs_sma50_pct=1.4884, spy_vs_sma200_pct=8.225, sma20_slope_sign=-1.0, d3_pct=-0.0839 |
| breadth | 1.1 | pct_above_sma50=65.27, pct_above_sma200=67.76, adv_dec_ratio=1.434, pct_baskets_positive=78.72 |
| volatility | 0.0 | rv20_pctile_2y=75.2, tr_vs_atr20=0.498, atr20_method=true_range, intraday_range_vs_20d=0.534 |
| rotation | -1.0 | spearman_d1_vs_w1=-0.6905, spearman_wtd_vs_m1=0.1667, leadership_flip=False |
| size | 0.1 | small_large_d1=0.5632, small_large_w1=-1.364, small_large_m1=3.0612, smallmid_vs_5b_d1=-0.9923 |
| style | -0.8 | mom_lowvol_w1=-2.0046, hibeta_lowvol_w1=-1.728, growth_value_w1=-0.8499, credit_w1=0.8128 |
| Wave stage | Sectors |
|---|
| Expansion / late acceleration | 5 |
| Basing / early-cycle | 4 |
| Reset within trend | 2 |
The regime framework classifies today as Choppy Neutral with a low confidence of 0.16 and a composite score of 0.24. Breadth is the primary positive contributor at 1.1, driven by 65.27% of stocks above their 50-day average and a 1.43 advance-decline ratio. Trend scores 0.9, supported by SPY 1.49% above its 50-day and 8.23% above its 200-day. However, rotation is sharply negative at -1.0, reflecting a Spearman correlation of -0.69 between daily and weekly returns, and style bias at -0.75 indicates defensive positioning.
Opportunity Watchlist
| Ticker | Sector | Opportunity | Wave stage | Regime fit |
|---|
| ACI | Consumer Staples | 88.5 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 91.9 |
| OZK | Financials | 87.2 | Mixed / transition | 91.7 |
| OWL | Financials | 81.7 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 88.5 |
| SWKS | Information Technology | 83.3 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 88.2 |
| TAP | Consumer Staples | 84.6 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 87.9 |
| Ticker | Since close | Vs basket | Read |
|---|
| ACI | +0.67% | +1.10% | confirms |
| OZK | +1.90% | +0.15% | confirms |
| OWL | -0.69% | -2.44% | diverges |
| SWKS | +0.97% | -2.76% | confirms |
| TAP | -1.25% | -0.82% | diverges |
Top opportunity scores belong to ACI (88.5), OZK (87.2), and SWKS (83.3). ACI and SWKS confirm intraday, with ACI advancing 0.67% versus its basket's 1.1%, while SWKS gains 0.97% against a basket decline of -2.76%. OWL and TAP fail confirmation. Pattern-based setups highlight SYF with a donchian breakdown short, scoring 79.26, and D with a donchian breakout long at 70.1. Technology and financials dominate the screener, with Wave 1 accumulation stages suggesting early-cycle positioning.
Multi-Horizon Context
| Basket | D3 | WTD | MTD |
|---|
| production: Broken Momentum / Avoid | -1.36% | -1.67% | +0.64% |
| production: Extended Momentum Risk | -2.41% | -2.68% | +4.83% |
| production: Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation | -0.61% | -0.02% | +3.85% |
| production: Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership | +0.41% | +1.16% | -4.04% |
| production: Neutral / Transition | -0.04% | +0.40% | -0.89% |
| production: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -1.00% | -1.44% | -9.89% |
| production: Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend | -0.84% | -0.79% | +1.30% |
| production: Thematic Momentum Leadership | -0.16% | +0.30% | +1.06% |
| theme: AI Infrastructure | -1.44% | -0.69% | -2.26% |
| theme: Cloud Software | -0.05% | +3.03% | +4.09% |
| theme: Commodities / Materials | -2.80% | -2.62% | -3.98% |
| theme: Consumer / Retail | -0.98% | -1.65% | -0.37% |
| theme: Crypto / Digital Assets | -1.29% | -0.17% | +1.28% |
| theme: Cybersecurity | -0.92% | +0.34% | +0.49% |
| theme: Defense / Aerospace | -2.99% | -2.55% | -4.63% |
| theme: Energy Transition | -1.19% | -0.90% | -0.98% |
| theme: Financials / Credit | -1.06% | -0.65% | +0.88% |
| theme: Healthcare / Biotech | +0.65% | +0.78% | +2.28% |
| theme: Housing / Real Estate | -1.56% | -0.66% | -0.13% |
| theme: Industrial Automation | -1.57% | -1.11% | -3.31% |
| theme: Macro Rates / Inflation | -0.95% | -1.09% | -1.01% |
| theme: Oil & Gas | +1.25% | +1.06% | +0.68% |
| theme: Semiconductors | -1.18% | -0.49% | -4.86% |
| sector: Communication Services | -0.41% | -0.73% | +1.85% |
| sector: Consumer Discretionary | -0.93% | -1.48% | -0.85% |
| sector: Consumer Staples | -1.25% | -2.48% | +0.77% |
| sector: Energy | +4.01% | +3.59% | +3.08% |
| sector: Financials | -0.69% | +0.53% | +3.00% |
| sector: Health Care | +0.10% | -0.05% | +2.95% |
| sector: Industrials | -2.38% | -1.85% | -3.90% |
| sector: Information Technology | +0.92% | +2.23% | -1.95% |
| sector: Materials | -2.77% | -3.18% | -3.22% |
| sector: Real Estate | -0.33% | -1.01% | +0.65% |
| sector: Utilities | +0.24% | -0.78% | +0.09% |
| size: Large (>=5B) | -0.49% | -0.27% | -0.12% |
| size: Micro Cap $250M-$1B | -1.41% | -1.19% | -0.92% |
| size: Nano Cap <$250M | -0.10% | -0.15% | -3.23% |
| size: Small Cap $1B-$5B | -1.42% | -0.68% | -0.49% |
| style: Base Building / Coiled | -0.96% | -0.72% | -0.65% |
| style: Extended Overbought Momentum | -0.95% | -0.64% | +4.25% |
| style: Low-Vol Uptrend | -0.46% | -0.23% | +1.09% |
| style: Momentum Breakout / Leadership | -0.74% | -0.31% | +2.24% |
| style: Neutral / Transition | -0.19% | +0.25% | -0.68% |
| style: Normal Vol/Trend | -0.22% | -0.04% | -2.11% |
| style: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -1.00% | -1.44% | -9.89% |
| style: Persistent Uptrend / Compounder | -0.37% | -0.29% | +1.09% |
| style: Weak Downtrend / Avoid Momentum | -1.36% | -1.67% | +0.64% |
Multi-horizon returns reveal a recent bounce within a deteriorating trend. Over three days, Energy leads at 4.01%, while Commodities/Materials lags at -2.80%. Week-to-date, the Momentum vs Low Vol spread expands to 2.64, favoring risk. Month-to-date, however, mean-reversion is punished: Oversold Watch drops 9.89%, while Extended Momentum Risk gains 4.83%. Breadth trend across all horizons is deteriorating, and the regime path shows a composite of -0.16 earlier this week, reinforcing the choppy environment with sharp reversals.
Data Quality and Coverage
| Source | As of |
|---|
| intraday_bars | 2026-07-09T12:45:00-04:00 |
| warehouse_snapshot | 2026-07-09 |
| proxy_daily | 2026-07-08 |
| screener_artifact | 2026-07-08T20:33:12.166787-04:00 |
| grouped_daily | unavailable |
- Overall coverage: 99.2%
- Degraded baskets: theme:Healthcare / Biotech
- Missing archived report days: 2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07
- Report generated at 2026-07-09T13:00:29-04:00; every figure above is computed deterministically from report.json