SPY
+0.44%
gap +0.26% · open +0.18%
Best factor
+4.17%
Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership
Worst factor
-3.11%
Extended Momentum Risk
Regime
Choppy Neutral
confidence 0.01
Breadth
53%
baskets positive · A/D 467/528
Regime components (−2 … +2)
trend+0.6
breadth+0.7
volatility+0.0
rotation-1.0
size-0.3
style-0.8

Data as of 2026-07-09T09:45:00-04:00 (Polygon intraday bars are 15-minute delayed). Every figure is computed deterministically from report.json before narration.

Session Snapshot

ProxyNameGroupLastSince CloseGapSince OpenRVol
SPYS&P 500index748.69+0.44%+0.26%+0.18%0.94
QQQNasdaq 100index721.56+1.42%+0.97%+0.45%1.44
DIADow Industrialsindex523.26+0.09%+0.17%-0.07%1.18
IWMRussell 2000index295.94+0.84%+0.61%+0.23%1.13
MDYS&P MidCap 400index688.47+1.03%+0.69%+0.34%0.56
IJRS&P SmallCap 600index144.84+0.80%+0.68%+0.12%0.59
RSPS&P 500 Equal Weightindex213.13+0.44%+0.30%+0.14%0.83
VTITotal US Marketindex370.13+0.51%+0.33%+0.18%1.44
XLKTechnologysector185.87+2.46%+1.85%+0.60%1.04
XLFFinancialssector55.25+0.52%+0.18%+0.33%0.78
XLEEnergysector55.15-0.81%-0.58%-0.24%1.21
XLVHealth Caresector162.46+0.10%-0.31%+0.41%0.96
XLIIndustrialssector181.70+0.71%+1.11%-0.40%0.82
XLYConsumer Discretionarysector115.20-0.09%-0.50%+0.42%1.31
XLPConsumer Staplessector83.31-1.28%-1.00%-0.29%1.66
XLUUtilitiessector45.28-0.17%+0.43%-0.59%1.64
XLBMaterialssector50.27+0.22%+0.42%-0.20%1.27
XLCCommunication Servicessector108.31-1.05%-1.26%+0.21%1.10
XLREReal Estatesector44.20+0.11%+0.11%+0.00%1.53
MTUMMomentum Factorstyle326.06+3.56%+3.20%+0.34%1.82
VLUEValue Factorstyle195.30+2.01%+1.85%+0.15%0.20
QUALQuality Factorstyle218.58+0.77%+0.44%+0.33%3.82
USMVMin Volatilitystyle97.79+0.14%-0.03%+0.17%0.46
SPLVLow Volatilitystyle75.62-0.32%-0.09%-0.22%0.59
SPHBHigh Betastyle149.30+2.58%+2.15%+0.42%0.59
IWFRussell 1000 Growthstyle122.90+0.90%+0.70%+0.20%0.54
IWDRussell 1000 Valuestyle245.32+0.05%-0.21%+0.26%0.51
VUGVanguard Growthstyle86.42+0.50%+0.19%+0.31%1.42
VTVVanguard Valuestyle218.69+0.48%+0.22%+0.27%0.69
SMHSemiconductorstheme616.94+4.04%+3.79%+0.24%2.35
XBIBiotechtheme164.63+1.02%-0.10%+1.12%1.14
ITAAerospace & Defensetheme240.15+0.21%+0.41%-0.19%0.57
KRERegional Bankstheme73.92+0.80%+0.46%+0.33%1.09
XHBHomebuilderstheme107.22+1.11%+1.03%+0.08%0.65
TANSolartheme54.95+1.51%+0.98%+0.52%0.52
TLT20+yr Treasuriescross_asset84.31-0.05%-0.09%+0.04%0.64
IEF7-10yr Treasuriescross_asset93.62+0.12%+0.09%+0.03%0.30
HYGHigh Yield Creditcross_asset79.70+0.06%+0.09%-0.03%0.62
LQDIG Creditcross_asset107.73+0.06%+0.04%+0.02%0.69
GLDGoldcross_asset378.50+1.08%+1.08%-0.00%0.87
USOOilcross_asset110.20-1.79%-1.22%-0.58%2.29
UUPUS Dollarcross_asset28.36+0.01%-0.04%+0.04%0.90

The session opens with large caps up 0.44%, driven by Semiconductors (+3.01% since close, gap 2.32%) and AI Infrastructure (+1.44%). Breadth is negative with 467 advancers against 528 decliners. Consumer/Retail (-0.48%) and Housing/Real Estate (-0.35%) lag, while defensive Healthcare/Biotech is flat (+0.03%).

Intraday Factor Moves

BasketNSince CloseGapSince OpenBreadthRVolCoverage
Broken Momentum / Avoid135-1.10%-1.33%+0.20%28.1% adv0.55100.0%
Extended Momentum Risk5-3.11%-3.36%+0.27%0.0% adv0.27100.0%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation22-0.49%-1.36%+0.88%36.4% adv0.48100.0%
Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership11+4.17%+3.97%+0.21%63.6% adv0.92100.0%
Neutral / Transition380+1.20%+0.93%+0.29%50.0% adv0.4399.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch43+3.20%+3.05%+0.15%76.2% adv0.69100.0%
Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend241-0.32%-0.36%+0.05%39.7% adv0.3398.8%
Thematic Momentum Leadership169+0.35%-0.25%+0.61%58.9% adv0.35100.0%

Factor performance reverses recent trends: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch surges +3.13%, while Extended Overbought Momentum drops -1.58%. Normal Vol/Trend adds +1.67%, and Weak Downtrend resumes losses at -1.10%. Quality/Low-Vol Uptrend is flat (-0.01%), as large caps (+0.44%) outpace flat small caps.

Sector Rotation

BasketNSince CloseGapSince OpenBreadthRVolCoverage
Communication Services44-1.13%-1.52%+0.40%27.9% adv0.4197.7%
Consumer Discretionary106-0.60%-0.67%+0.07%38.7% adv0.35100.0%
Consumer Staples47-1.99%-1.60%-0.35%10.6% adv0.48100.0%
Energy40+0.51%+0.74%-0.23%45.0% adv0.43100.0%
Financials149-0.11%-0.43%+0.32%41.5% adv0.3799.3%
Health Care128+0.09%-0.62%+0.72%52.0% adv0.3799.2%
Industrials177+0.45%+0.66%-0.22%58.5% adv0.39100.0%
Information Technology166+3.58%+2.29%+1.31%66.7% adv0.7599.4%
Materials39+0.21%+0.41%-0.20%48.7% adv0.48100.0%
Real Estate66-0.47%-0.35%-0.12%36.4% adv0.27100.0%
Utilities44-0.28%+0.16%-0.44%20.4% adv0.34100.0%

Sector rotation this morning favors Energy-linked themes with Oil & Gas +0.29% and Energy Transition +0.26%. Financials/Credit slips -0.14%, while Consumer/Retail (-0.48%) and Housing/Real Estate (-0.35%) weaken. Cloud Software (+0.95%) and Cybersecurity (+0.85%) show relative resilience.

Themes and Keyword Baskets

ThemeNIntradayWTDMTDBreadth
Semiconductors247+3.01%-0.70%-5.10%65.1% adv
Industrial Automation491+1.52%-1.41%-3.61%63.5% adv
AI Infrastructure830+1.44%-1.01%-2.58%52.8% adv
Cloud Software262+0.95%+2.69%+3.73%43.5% adv
Crypto / Digital Assets151+0.89%-0.65%+0.78%47.2% adv
Oil & Gas370+0.29%+0.90%+0.51%46.3% adv
Energy Transition1123+0.26%-1.15%-1.23%47.4% adv
Financials / Credit677-0.14%-1.04%+0.48%43.4% adv
Housing / Real Estate423-0.35%-1.04%-0.50%40.7% adv
Consumer / Retail486-0.48%-2.17%-0.90%39.5% adv

Thematic leadership is concentrated in Semiconductors (+3.01% intraday, gap 2.32%) and AI Infrastructure (+1.44%). Cloud Software adds +0.95%, and Crypto/Digital Assets rises +0.89%. Laggards include Consumer/Retail (-0.48%), Housing/Real Estate (-0.35%), and Financials/Credit (-0.14%). Cybersecurity (+0.85%) and Healthcare/Biotech (+0.03%) are mixed.

Size and Breadth

Size bucketNIntradayD1WTDBreadth
Large (>=5B)1006+0.44%+0.44%-0.81%46.8% adv
Micro Cap $250M-$1B228n/a+0.00%-1.19%0.0% adv
Nano Cap <$250M21n/a+0.00%-0.15%0.0% adv
Small Cap $1B-$5B829n/a+0.00%-0.68%0.0% adv
% > SMA50% > SMA200AdvancersDecliners% Baskets Positive
62.9%66.2%46752853.2%

Large caps gain 0.44%, while small, micro, and nano caps are unchanged. Breadth is mixed: 467 advancers vs 528 decliners, and only 53.19% of baskets are positive. 62.89% of members remain above the 50-day moving average, but the advance/decline ratio sits at 0.884.

Volume and Participation

DimensionBasketMedian RVol% Members RVol>1.5
productionBroken Momentum / Avoid0.558.1%
productionExtended Momentum Risk0.2720.0%
productionInstitutional Large-Cap Accumulation0.484.5%
productionMega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership0.9236.4%
productionNeutral / Transition0.437.9%
productionOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch0.6921.4%
productionQuality / Low-Vol Uptrend0.333.0%
productionThematic Momentum Leadership0.354.8%
TickerBasketRVolReturnNote
IONSThematic Momentum Leadership25.92-20.91%distribution volume
ALNYNeutral / Transition17.10+12.56%breakout volume
BBIOQuality / Low-Vol Uptrend10.81+15.79%breakout volume
LEVIThematic Momentum Leadership7.91-2.81%distribution volume
PSKYBroken Momentum / Avoid6.24-8.21%distribution volume

Volume is moderate with most baskets trading below average; rvol_median ranges from 0.27 (Extended Momentum Risk) to 0.92 (Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership), where 36.4% of names exceed 1.5x. Anomalies include IONS (RVOL 25.92, -20.91%) on distribution volume and ALNY (RVOL 17.10, +12.56%) on breakout volume.

Regime Assessment

LabelConfidenceComposite
Choppy Neutral0.010.02
ComponentScore [−2..+2]Key inputs
trend0.6spy_vs_sma50_pct=1.2234, spy_vs_sma200_pct=7.9424, sma20_slope_sign=-1.0, d3_pct=-0.3447
breadth0.7pct_above_sma50=62.89, pct_above_sma200=66.17, adv_dec_ratio=0.884, pct_baskets_positive=53.19
volatility0.0rv20_pctile_2y=75.2, tr_vs_atr20=0.299, atr20_method=true_range, intraday_range_vs_20d=0.305
rotation-1.0spearman_d1_vs_w1=-0.619, spearman_wtd_vs_m1=0.0476, leadership_flip=False
size-0.3small_large_d1=0.3968, small_large_w1=-1.5221, small_large_m1=2.8828, smallmid_vs_5b_d1=-0.4408
style-0.8mom_lowvol_w1=-1.5507, hibeta_lowvol_w1=-2.4749, growth_value_w1=-0.688, credit_w1=0.8176
Wave stageSectors
Expansion / late acceleration5
Basing / early-cycle4
Reset within trend2

The composite regime is Choppy Neutral (0.02, confidence 0.01), unchanged from premarket. Trend (0.55) and breadth (0.70) are neutral-positive, but rotation (-1.0) and style (-0.75) signal sharp reversals. Volatility is subdued (0.0), reinforcing a choppy, directionless environment.

Opportunity Watchlist

TickerSectorOpportunityWave stageRegime fit
ACIConsumer Staples88.5Wave 1 / accumulation91.9
OZKFinancials87.2Mixed / transition91.7
OWLFinancials81.7Wave 1 / accumulation88.5
SWKSInformation Technology83.3Wave 1 / accumulation88.2
TAPConsumer Staples84.6Wave 1 / accumulation87.9
TickerSince closeVs basketRead
ACI-2.26%-1.16%diverges
OZK+0.61%-0.59%confirms
OWL-1.71%-2.91%diverges
SWKS+1.27%-1.93%confirms
TAP-1.66%-0.56%diverges

Top screener opportunities: ACI (88.5, Broken Momentum / Avoid), OZK (87.2, Neutral/Transition), TAP (84.6), and SWKS (83.3, Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch). Intraday confirmation came for OZK (+0.61%) and SWKS (+1.27%). Top setups include SYF (short, donchian breakdown, 79.26) and D (long, breakout, 70.1).

Multi-Horizon Context

BasketD3WTDMTD
production: Broken Momentum / Avoid-2.02%-2.33%-0.04%
production: Extended Momentum Risk-2.36%-2.63%+4.88%
production: Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation-1.14%-0.57%+3.28%
production: Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership+1.01%+1.74%-3.49%
production: Neutral / Transition-0.58%-0.14%-1.45%
production: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-1.50%-1.94%-10.34%
production: Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend-1.37%-1.32%+0.76%
production: Thematic Momentum Leadership-0.73%-0.27%+0.48%
theme: AI Infrastructure-1.76%-1.01%-2.58%
theme: Cloud Software-0.39%+2.69%+3.73%
theme: Commodities / Materials-2.94%-2.76%-4.14%
theme: Consumer / Retail-1.50%-2.17%-0.90%
theme: Crypto / Digital Assets-1.77%-0.65%+0.78%
theme: Cybersecurity-1.23%+0.03%+0.18%
theme: Defense / Aerospace-3.19%-2.76%-4.84%
theme: Energy Transition-1.43%-1.15%-1.23%
theme: Financials / Credit-1.45%-1.04%+0.48%
theme: Healthcare / Biotech+0.63%+0.76%+2.26%
theme: Housing / Real Estate-1.93%-1.04%-0.50%
theme: Industrial Automation-1.87%-1.41%-3.61%
theme: Macro Rates / Inflation-1.29%-1.43%-1.35%
theme: Oil & Gas+1.09%+0.90%+0.51%
theme: Semiconductors-1.39%-0.70%-5.10%
sector: Communication Services-1.47%-1.79%+0.78%
sector: Consumer Discretionary-2.29%-2.83%-2.22%
sector: Consumer Staples-1.88%-3.10%+0.13%
sector: Energy+4.16%+3.74%+3.22%
sector: Financials-1.59%-0.39%+2.07%
sector: Health Care+0.27%+0.13%+3.13%
sector: Industrials-2.85%-2.32%-4.37%
sector: Information Technology+0.48%+1.79%-2.43%
sector: Materials-2.90%-3.31%-3.35%
sector: Real Estate-0.92%-1.61%+0.05%
sector: Utilities-0.12%-1.14%-0.27%
size: Large (>=5B)-1.03%-0.81%-0.68%
size: Micro Cap $250M-$1B-1.41%-1.19%-0.92%
size: Nano Cap <$250M-0.10%-0.15%-3.23%
size: Small Cap $1B-$5B-1.42%-0.68%-0.49%
style: Base Building / Coiled-1.71%-1.47%-1.42%
style: Extended Overbought Momentum-0.95%-0.63%+4.25%
style: Low-Vol Uptrend-1.00%-0.77%+0.54%
style: Momentum Breakout / Leadership-1.26%-0.83%+1.71%
style: Neutral / Transition-0.74%-0.30%-1.25%
style: Normal Vol/Trend-0.60%-0.42%-2.51%
style: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-1.50%-1.94%-10.34%
style: Persistent Uptrend / Compounder-0.90%-0.82%+0.56%
style: Weak Downtrend / Avoid Momentum-2.02%-2.33%-0.04%

Over three days, Energy (+4.16%) and Oil & Gas (+1.09%) lead, while Defense/Aerospace (-3.19%) lags. Week-to-date, Energy (+3.74%) and Cloud Software (+2.69%) outperform Materials (-3.31%). Month-to-date, Extended Momentum Risk (+4.88%) and Cloud Software (+3.73%) hold gains, but Oversold/Mean-Reversion Watch (-10.34%) and Semiconductors (-5.10%) remain under pressure. Spreads whipsawed, with Momentum-LowVol +3.11% wtd after -6.27% mtd.

Data Quality and Coverage

SourceAs of
intraday_bars2026-07-09T09:45:00-04:00
warehouse_snapshot2026-07-09
proxy_daily2026-07-08
screener_artifact2026-07-08T20:33:12.166787-04:00
grouped_dailyunavailable
  • Overall coverage: 99.2%
  • Degraded baskets: theme:Healthcare / Biotech
  • Missing archived report days: 2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07
  • Report generated at 2026-07-09T10:00:24-04:00; every figure above is computed deterministically from report.json