BoltFactors — AI-Powered Factor Briefing

Data as of 2026-07-09T18:45:00-04:00 (Polygon intraday bars are 15-minute delayed). Every figure is computed deterministically from report.json before narration.

Session Snapshot

Proxy	Name	Group	Last	Since Close	Gap	Since Open	RVol
SPY	S&P 500	index	751.71	+0.85%	+0.26%	+0.58%	0.68
QQQ	Nasdaq 100	index	723.28	+1.66%	+0.97%	+0.69%	0.67
DIA	Dow Industrials	index	524.19	+0.27%	+0.17%	+0.10%	0.59
IWM	Russell 2000	index	297.24	+1.28%	+0.61%	+0.67%	0.57
MDY	S&P MidCap 400	index	690.22	+1.28%	+0.69%	+0.59%	0.53
IJR	S&P SmallCap 600	index	145.47	+1.24%	+0.68%	+0.55%	0.44
RSP	S&P 500 Equal Weight	index	213.50	+0.61%	+0.30%	+0.31%	0.66
VTI	Total US Market	index	371.45	+0.87%	+0.33%	+0.54%	1.59
XLK	Technology	sector	185.35	+2.18%	+1.85%	+0.32%	0.56
XLF	Financials	sector	55.54	+1.04%	+0.18%	+0.85%	0.72
XLE	Energy	sector	54.82	-1.40%	-0.58%	-0.83%	0.62
XLV	Health Care	sector	162.17	-0.08%	-0.31%	+0.23%	0.84
XLI	Industrials	sector	181.11	+0.38%	+1.11%	-0.72%	0.64
XLY	Consumer Discretionary	sector	116.85	+1.34%	-0.50%	+1.86%	0.98
XLP	Consumer Staples	sector	83.20	-1.41%	-1.00%	-0.42%	0.90
XLU	Utilities	sector	45.13	-0.51%	+0.43%	-0.93%	0.95
XLB	Materials	sector	50.26	+0.20%	+0.42%	-0.22%	0.86
XLC	Communication Services	sector	110.51	+0.96%	-1.26%	+2.25%	0.82
XLRE	Real Estate	sector	44.23	+0.18%	+0.11%	+0.07%	0.52
MTUM	Momentum Factor	style	321.20	+2.02%	+3.20%	-1.15%	1.02
VLUE	Value Factor	style	195.10	+1.90%	+1.85%	+0.05%	0.51
QUAL	Quality Factor	style	218.50	+0.73%	+0.44%	+0.29%	1.11
USMV	Min Volatility	style	97.60	-0.05%	-0.03%	-0.02%	0.77
SPLV	Low Volatility	style	75.50	-0.47%	-0.09%	-0.38%	0.43
SPHB	High Beta	style	149.63	+2.81%	+2.15%	+0.65%	1.00
IWF	Russell 1000 Growth	style	123.30	+1.23%	+0.70%	+0.53%	0.58
IWD	Russell 1000 Value	style	246.38	+0.48%	-0.21%	+0.69%	0.51
VUG	Vanguard Growth	style	86.98	+1.15%	+0.19%	+0.96%	1.01
VTV	Vanguard Value	style	218.56	+0.42%	+0.22%	+0.21%	0.97
SMH	Semiconductors	theme	607.73	+2.48%	+3.79%	-1.26%	0.72
XBI	Biotech	theme	164.28	+0.80%	-0.10%	+0.91%	0.73
ITA	Aerospace & Defense	theme	239.62	-0.00%	+0.41%	-0.41%	0.56
KRE	Regional Banks	theme	74.65	+1.79%	+0.46%	+1.32%	0.75
XHB	Homebuilders	theme	107.61	+1.48%	+1.03%	+0.45%	0.56
TAN	Solar	theme	54.95	+1.50%	+0.98%	+0.51%	0.27
TLT	20+yr Treasuries	cross_asset	84.49	+0.15%	-0.09%	+0.25%	0.71
IEF	7-10yr Treasuries	cross_asset	93.71	+0.21%	+0.09%	+0.13%	0.48
HYG	High Yield Credit	cross_asset	79.75	+0.11%	+0.09%	+0.03%	0.65
LQD	IG Credit	cross_asset	107.71	+0.04%	+0.04%	+0.00%	0.84
GLD	Gold	cross_asset	378.18	+1.00%	+1.08%	-0.09%	0.57
USO	Oil	cross_asset	109.01	-2.85%	-1.22%	-1.65%	0.87
UUP	US Dollar	cross_asset	28.36	+0.00%	-0.04%	+0.04%	0.69

The session was characterized by sharp dispersion under a Choppy Neutral regime. Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch led with a closing gain of 2.94%, followed by Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership at 2.70%. Conversely, Extended Momentum Risk fell 2.91% and Broken Momentum / Avoid declined 0.54%. Anomalous volume-driven moves included IONS dropping 25.55% on 9.56x relative volume and BBIO surging 15.12% on 5.24x volume. The composite regime score rose 0.0525 to 0.2925, confidence remains low at 0.19.

Closing Factor Performance

Basket	N	D1	3D	WTD	MTD	Breadth	Coverage
Broken Momentum / Avoid	135	-0.54%	-1.46%	-1.77%	+0.55%	34.8% adv	100.0%
Extended Momentum Risk	5	-2.91%	-2.17%	-2.43%	+5.10%	0.0% adv	100.0%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation	22	+0.03%	-0.64%	-0.05%	+3.81%	27.3% adv	100.0%
Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership	11	+2.70%	-0.37%	+0.37%	-4.71%	63.6% adv	100.0%
Neutral / Transition	380	+1.35%	-0.42%	+0.02%	-1.24%	61.7% adv	99.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch	43	+2.94%	-1.67%	-2.10%	-10.49%	83.3% adv	100.0%
Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend	241	+0.00%	-1.06%	-1.00%	+1.09%	44.5% adv	98.8%
Thematic Momentum Leadership	169	+0.73%	-0.35%	+0.11%	+0.88%	67.5% adv	100.0%

The factor landscape closed mixed. The strongest closing returns came from Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch (+2.94%) and Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership (+2.70%). Neutral / Transition advanced 1.35%, while Thematic Momentum Leadership added 0.73%. Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend was flat. On the downside, Extended Momentum Risk dropped 2.91%, Broken Momentum / Avoid lost 0.54%, and Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation was nearly unchanged at +0.03%. Breadth within baskets varied widely, from 0% advancing in Extended Momentum Risk to 83.33% in the oversold basket.

What Worked Today

Basket	Side	Ticker	Return	Weight
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch	top	KLAC	+7.40%	0.23
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch	top	ORCL	+3.58%	0.30
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch	top	CRWD	+3.30%	0.13
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch	bottom	CMC	-3.16%	0.01
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch	bottom	WLK	-2.35%	0.01
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch	bottom	CAVA	-2.21%	0.01
Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership	top	MU	+9.02%	0.20
Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership	top	AMD	+7.04%	0.13
Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership	top	AMAT	+7.81%	0.08
Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership	bottom	JNJ	-2.81%	0.09
Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership	bottom	LLY	-0.94%	0.17
Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership	bottom	ABBV	-1.86%	0.07
Extended Momentum Risk	bottom	HCA	-3.33%	0.54
Extended Momentum Risk	bottom	MDLN	-5.02%	0.20
Extended Momentum Risk	bottom	BRO	-2.06%	0.14

This week, momentum and risk-on factors outperformed. The best weekly returns came from the Cloud Software theme (+3.54%), followed by Energy (+3.05%) and Information Technology (+1.91%). Factor spreads show High Beta outperforming Low Vol by 2.81%, Momentum over Low Vol by 1.77%, and Growth over Value by 1.94%. In contrast, Materials (-3.56%), Consumer Staples (-2.94%), and Commodities/Materials (-2.54%) lagged. The Momentum Leadership basket extended its advantage over Broken Momentum by 2.14%, reinforcing the trend toward high-momentum, high-beta leadership amid a broad but deteriorating breadth environment.

Sector Rotation

Basket	N	D1	3D	WTD	MTD	Breadth	Coverage
Communication Services	44	+0.18%	-0.16%	-0.47%	+2.13%	48.8% adv	97.7%
Consumer Discretionary	106	+0.49%	-1.23%	-1.77%	-1.14%	59.4% adv	100.0%
Consumer Staples	47	-1.83%	-1.72%	-2.94%	+0.30%	19.1% adv	100.0%
Energy	40	-0.16%	+3.46%	+3.05%	+2.56%	37.5% adv	100.0%
Financials	149	+0.54%	-0.95%	+0.26%	+2.74%	50.0% adv	99.3%
Health Care	128	+0.27%	+0.44%	+0.29%	+3.29%	59.8% adv	99.2%
Industrials	177	+0.36%	-2.92%	-2.40%	-4.43%	61.4% adv	100.0%
Information Technology	166	+3.63%	+0.60%	+1.91%	-2.20%	75.8% adv	99.4%
Materials	39	-0.03%	-3.14%	-3.56%	-3.59%	46.1% adv	100.0%
Real Estate	66	-0.32%	-0.77%	-1.46%	+0.20%	39.4% adv	100.0%
Utilities	44	-0.39%	-0.24%	-1.25%	-0.38%	31.8% adv	100.0%

Sector participation is bifurcated. Five sectors reside in Expansion / late acceleration, including Utilities, Health Care, Real Estate, Financials, and Energy. Four sectors—Consumer Staples, Industrials, Information Technology, and Communication Services—are in Basing / early-cycle. Consumer Discretionary and Materials are resetting within trend. Over the past three days, Energy gained 3.46% while Materials declined 3.14%, highlighting a rotation into late-cycle leaders. The gap between Small and Large caps narrowed slightly at -0.61%, and Semis outpaced the broad market by 0.51%, indicating selective technology interest within the basing sectors.

Themes and Keyword Baskets

Theme	N	Intraday	WTD	MTD	Breadth
Semiconductors	247	+2.84%	+0.01%	-4.44%	73.0% adv
AI Infrastructure	830	+1.73%	-0.17%	-1.79%	63.5% adv
Industrial Automation	491	+1.55%	-0.77%	-3.02%	64.0% adv
Crypto / Digital Assets	151	+1.41%	+0.11%	+1.58%	58.2% adv
Cloud Software	262	+1.30%	+3.54%	+4.61%	61.0% adv
Macro Rates / Inflation	494	+0.37%	-1.36%	-1.27%	55.3% adv
Financials / Credit	677	+0.33%	-0.66%	+0.86%	55.3% adv
Oil & Gas	370	+0.33%	+0.97%	+0.57%	51.0% adv
Housing / Real Estate	423	+0.31%	-0.54%	-0.01%	54.0% adv
Consumer / Retail	486	+0.23%	-1.69%	-0.42%	52.7% adv

Thematic leadership is concentrated. The Thematic Momentum Leadership basket advanced 0.73% today, with 47% of constituents in breakout waves and an average opportunity score of 65.8. Cloud Software led weekly themes with a 3.54% gain, while Oil & Gas added 1.16% over three days. Conversely, Commodities / Materials underperformed, down 2.73% over three days and 2.54% week-to-date. The Biotech theme was flagged as degraded, yet individual breakouts occurred: BBIO surged 15.12% on breakout volume. Thematic dispersion is elevated, with hyper-growth narratives attracting flows while cyclical commodity themes face distribution.

Size and Breadth

Size bucket	N	Intraday	D1	WTD	Breadth
Large (>=5B)	1006	+0.71%	+0.70%	-0.55%	54.9% adv
Micro Cap $250M-$1B	228	+0.96%	+0.96%	-0.28%	59.7% adv
Nano Cap <$250M	21	+1.63%	+1.55%	+0.15%	55.0% adv
Small Cap $1B-$5B	829	+0.89%	+0.89%	+0.16%	61.7% adv

% > SMA50	% > SMA200	Advancers	Decliners	% Baskets Positive
62.8%	67.2%	549	450	78.7%

Market breadth is deteriorating. The percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average stands at 62.79%, and 67.16% remain above the 200-day. The advance-decline ratio is 1.22, while 78.72% of baskets are positive, masking internal weakness. Small caps underperformed large caps this week by 1.04%, and the equal-weighted versus cap-weighted spread widened by 1.59% in favor of cap-weight, signaling a mega-cap driven tape. The size factor score is 0.4, with small-large daily relative performance at +0.43% but weekly at -1.49%. Breadth trends across multiple timeframes are deteriorating, consistent with a narrow, selective advance.

Volume and Participation

Dimension	Basket	Median RVol	% Members RVol>1.5
production	Broken Momentum / Avoid	0.76	4.4%
production	Extended Momentum Risk	0.57	0.0%
production	Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation	0.84	0.0%
production	Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership	0.75	0.0%
production	Neutral / Transition	0.71	1.8%
production	Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch	0.79	7.1%
production	Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend	0.75	2.9%
production	Thematic Momentum Leadership	0.71	3.6%

Ticker	Basket	RVol	Return	Note
IONS	Thematic Momentum Leadership	9.56	-25.55%	distribution volume
BBIO	Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend	5.24	+15.12%	breakout volume
ALNY	Neutral / Transition	4.63	-3.31%	distribution volume
LEVI	Thematic Momentum Leadership	3.98	-4.30%	distribution volume

Volume characteristics reflect a low-conviction market. Median relative volume across production baskets ranges from 0.57 (Extended Momentum Risk) to 0.84 (Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation), all below elevated thresholds. Only 7.1% of Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch members and 4.4% of Broken Momentum / Avoid members crossed 1.5x relative volume. Anomalous single-stock volume events were notable: IONS distributed on 9.56x volume, BBIO broke out on 5.24x, ALNY distributed on 4.63x, and LEVI on 3.98x. These isolated spikes highlight selective conviction rather than broad-based institutional commitment.

Regime Assessment

Label	Confidence	Composite
Choppy Neutral	0.19	0.29

Component	Score [−2..+2]	Key inputs
trend	0.9	spy_vs_sma50_pct=1.6317, spy_vs_sma200_pct=8.3778, sma20_slope_sign=-1.0, d3_pct=0.0572
breadth	1.1	pct_above_sma50=62.79, pct_above_sma200=67.16, adv_dec_ratio=1.22, pct_baskets_positive=78.72
volatility	0.0	rv20_pctile_2y=75.2, tr_vs_atr20=0.595, atr20_method=true_range, intraday_range_vs_20d=0.641
rotation	-1.0	spearman_d1_vs_w1=-0.7143, spearman_wtd_vs_m1=0.1667, leadership_flip=False
size	0.4	small_large_d1=0.4347, small_large_w1=-1.4927, small_large_m1=2.9318, smallmid_vs_5b_d1=0.2128
style	-0.8	mom_lowvol_w1=-2.8358, hibeta_lowvol_w1=-2.0987, growth_value_w1=-0.7975, credit_w1=0.8925

Wave stage	Sectors
Expansion / late acceleration	5
Basing / early-cycle	4
Reset within trend	2

Regime: Choppy Neutral (confidence 0.19, composite 0.29).

Opportunity Watchlist

Ticker	Sector	Opportunity	Wave stage	Regime fit
ACI	Consumer Staples	88.5	Wave 1 / accumulation	91.9
OZK	Financials	87.2	Mixed / transition	91.7
OWL	Financials	81.7	Wave 1 / accumulation	88.5
SWKS	Information Technology	83.3	Wave 1 / accumulation	88.2
TAP	Consumer Staples	84.6	Wave 1 / accumulation	87.9

Ticker	Since close	Vs basket	Read
ACI	+1.41%	+1.95%	confirms
OZK	+1.62%	+0.27%	confirms
OWL	-0.96%	-2.31%	diverges
SWKS	+0.32%	-2.69%	confirms
TAP	-1.35%	-0.81%	diverges

The top opportunity is ACI in Consumer Staples with an opportunity score of 88.5, Wave 1 accumulation, regime fit 91.9, and intraday confirmation. OZK in Financials scores 87.2 with Mixed/transition wave and regime fit 91.7, also confirming. SWKS in Information Technology scores 83.3 with Wave 1 accumulation and regime fit 88.2, confirming intraday. TAP scores 84.6 but fails confirmation with since-close of -1.35%. OWL scores 81.7 but fails confirmation with a -0.96% move. The top two confirmations reside in Broken Momentum / Avoid and Neutral / Transition baskets.

3D Summary

Side	Dimension	Basket	Return
best	sector	Energy	+3.46%
best	theme	Oil & Gas	+1.16%
best	sector	Information Technology	+0.60%
worst	sector	Materials	-3.14%
worst	sector	Industrials	-2.92%
worst	theme	Commodities / Materials	-2.73%

Spread	Move
Momentum - LowVol	+0.14%
HighBeta - LowVol	+0.44%
Growth - Value	+0.59%
Small - Large	-0.61%
EqualWeight - CapWeight	-0.75%
Credit	+0.73%
Duration	-1.12%
Semis - Market	+0.51%
Momentum Leadership - Broken Momentum	+1.09%
Quality - Extended Risk	+1.11%

Breadth trend: deteriorating.

Date	Mode	Regime	Composite	Top basket	Bottom basket	SPY D1
2026-07-08	wrap	Choppy Neutral	-0.2	Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch	Extended Momentum Risk	-0.31%

Over the last three days, Energy led with a 3.46% return, followed by Oil & Gas at 1.16% and Information Technology at 0.60%. Materials lagged at -3.14%, Industrials at -2.92%, and Commodities/Materials at -2.73%. Key spreads: Momentum Leadership minus Broken Momentum gained 1.09%, Quality minus Extended Risk added 1.11%, while Duration dropped -1.12%. Breadth is deteriorating. The environment remains Choppy Neutral with a composite of -0.1575 in the prior session.

WTD Summary

Side	Dimension	Basket	Return
best	theme	Cloud Software	+3.54%
best	sector	Energy	+3.05%
best	sector	Information Technology	+1.91%
worst	sector	Materials	-3.56%
worst	sector	Consumer Staples	-2.94%
worst	theme	Commodities / Materials	-2.54%

Spread	Move
Momentum - LowVol	+1.77%
HighBeta - LowVol	+2.81%
Growth - Value	+1.94%
Small - Large	-1.04%
EqualWeight - CapWeight	-1.59%
Credit	+0.91%
Duration	-1.19%
Semis - Market	+1.68%
Momentum Leadership - Broken Momentum	+2.14%
Quality - Extended Risk	+1.43%

Breadth trend: deteriorating.

Date	Mode	Regime	Composite	Top basket	Bottom basket	SPY D1
2026-07-08	wrap	Choppy Neutral	-0.2	Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch	Extended Momentum Risk	-0.31%

This week, Cloud Software leads with a 3.54% return, with Energy at 3.05% and Information Technology at 1.91%. Underperformers include Materials at -3.56%, Consumer Staples at -2.94%, and Commodities/Materials at -2.54%. Momentum Leadership minus Broken Momentum spread widened 2.14%, Quality minus Extended Risk added 1.43%, and Semis minus Market gained 1.68%. Duration fell -1.19% and Credit rose 0.91%. Breadth continues deteriorating, and the composite registered -0.1575 at last close.

MTD Summary

Side	Dimension	Basket	Return
best	production	Extended Momentum Risk	+5.10%
best	theme	Cloud Software	+4.61%
best	style	Extended Overbought Momentum	+4.22%
worst	style	Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch	-10.49%
worst	production	Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch	-10.49%
worst	production	Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership	-4.71%

Spread	Move
Momentum - LowVol	-7.49%
HighBeta - LowVol	-4.63%
Growth - Value	-2.33%
Small - Large	-1.73%
EqualWeight - CapWeight	-0.32%
Credit	+0.97%
Duration	-2.23%
Semis - Market	-8.00%
Momentum Leadership - Broken Momentum	-5.26%
Quality - Extended Risk	-4.01%

Breadth trend: deteriorating.

Date	Mode	Regime	Composite	Top basket	Bottom basket	SPY D1
2026-07-08	wrap	Choppy Neutral	-0.2	Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch	Extended Momentum Risk	-0.31%

Month-to-date, Extended Momentum Risk basket is best at 5.1%, Cloud Software theme at 4.61%, and Extended Overbought Momentum style at 4.22%. The worst performers are the Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch basket and style both down -10.49%, and Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership down -4.71%. Momentum Leadership minus Broken Momentum contracted -5.26%, Semis minus Market tumbled -8.00%, and Duration lost -2.23%. Credit held up with a 0.97% gain. Breadth is deteriorating, composite remains negative at -0.1575.

Structural View (QTD YTD 1Y 2Y)

Basket	QTD	YTD	1Y	2Y
production: Broken Momentum / Avoid	+0.55%	-17.17%	-15.63%	+10.76%
production: Extended Momentum Risk	+5.10%	-14.02%	-25.16%	-3.72%
production: Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation	+3.81%	+24.27%	+29.39%	+80.36%
production: Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership	-4.71%	+92.08%	+176.23%	+200.52%
production: Neutral / Transition	-1.24%	+22.78%	+54.55%	+89.85%
production: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch	-10.49%	+14.90%	+40.67%	+90.57%
production: Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend	+1.09%	+12.27%	+18.77%	+39.42%
production: Thematic Momentum Leadership	+0.88%	+47.79%	+85.46%	+132.42%
theme: AI Infrastructure	-1.79%	+25.36%	+56.24%	+94.62%
theme: Cloud Software	+4.61%	+15.71%	+21.65%	+54.41%
theme: Commodities / Materials	-3.91%	+14.09%	+51.92%	+99.78%
theme: Consumer / Retail	-0.42%	+7.88%	+11.99%	+33.57%
theme: Crypto / Digital Assets	+1.58%	+12.42%	+27.02%	+60.34%
theme: Cybersecurity	+0.73%	+16.22%	+24.62%	+98.63%
theme: Defense / Aerospace	-4.33%	+27.73%	+65.08%	+154.83%
theme: Energy Transition	-0.80%	+20.06%	+44.38%	+65.63%
theme: Financials / Credit	+0.86%	+13.03%	+21.26%	+49.46%
theme: Healthcare / Biotech	+2.91%	+35.42%	+103.99%	+124.20%
theme: Housing / Real Estate	-0.01%	+11.73%	+19.82%	+32.67%
theme: Industrial Automation	-3.02%	+25.24%	+42.84%	+78.39%
theme: Macro Rates / Inflation	-1.27%	+15.59%	+31.00%	+50.99%
theme: Oil & Gas	+0.57%	+22.77%	+58.54%	+66.06%
theme: Semiconductors	-4.44%	+50.24%	+110.95%	+108.46%
sector: Communication Services	+2.13%	-3.65%	+22.09%	+83.68%
sector: Consumer Discretionary	-1.14%	+5.59%	+10.02%	+29.08%
sector: Consumer Staples	+0.30%	+5.44%	-0.24%	+8.65%
sector: Energy	+2.56%	+30.25%	+29.34%	+33.04%
sector: Financials	+2.74%	+9.40%	+16.31%	+62.02%
sector: Health Care	+3.29%	+30.04%	+79.46%	+88.29%
sector: Industrials	-4.43%	+19.46%	+38.53%	+100.54%
sector: Information Technology	-2.20%	+43.51%	+99.52%	+139.82%
sector: Materials	-3.59%	+19.67%	+39.99%	+51.50%
sector: Real Estate	+0.20%	+9.54%	+11.28%	+24.01%
sector: Utilities	-0.38%	+6.78%	+15.27%	+49.12%
size: Large (>=5B)	-0.38%	+19.38%	+41.75%	+75.14%
size: Micro Cap $250M-$1B	-0.06%	+21.25%	+50.79%	+74.83%
size: Nano Cap <$250M	-3.27%	+47.67%	+10.28%	+9.47%
size: Small Cap $1B-$5B	+0.28%	+22.79%	+50.53%	+77.77%
style: Base Building / Coiled	-0.92%	+10.49%	+37.39%	+37.84%
style: Extended Overbought Momentum	+4.22%	+33.49%	+54.13%	+95.62%
style: Low-Vol Uptrend	+0.87%	+27.13%	+45.30%	+74.90%
style: Momentum Breakout / Leadership	+2.32%	+45.47%	+85.07%	+129.85%
style: Neutral / Transition	-1.03%	+22.22%	+53.14%	+85.91%
style: Normal Vol/Trend	-2.42%	+10.74%	+37.98%	+103.66%
style: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch	-10.49%	+14.90%	+40.67%	+90.57%
style: Persistent Uptrend / Compounder	+0.85%	+24.27%	+33.66%	+63.93%
style: Weak Downtrend / Avoid Momentum	+0.55%	-17.17%	-15.63%	+10.76%

The regime is Choppy Neutral with composite 0.2925 and low confidence 0.19. Trend component scores 0.9 given SPY above its 50-day and 200-day, but the 20-day slope is negative. Breadth scores 1.1 with 62.79% above the 50-day and 67.16% above the 200-day. Volatility scores 0.0, with 2-year RV percentile at 75.2. Rotation scores -1.0, evidenced by a Spearman d1 vs w1 of -0.7143. Size factor rose 0.35 from prior. Style factor remains negative at -0.75. Sector waves show five in Expansion/late acceleration, four in Basing/early-cycle, and two in Reset. Basket waves: Breakouts dominate in Thematic Momentum Leadership at 47% share.

Chart Pattern and Wave Census

Breakouts	Breakdowns	Oversold
88	32	43

Setup type	Count
double_top	8
bear_flag	8
tight_base	8
donchian_breakdown	8
double_bottom	8
donchian_breakout	8
bull_flag	8
head_shoulders	8
gap_up_unfilled	3

Ticker	Pattern	Direction	Score
SYF	donchian_breakdown	short	79.3
D	donchian_breakout	long	70.1
LNC	double_bottom	long	69.7
CWEN	double_top	short	64.2
TECH	gap_up_unfilled	long	60.3
SMCI	head_shoulders	short	58.4
CWAN	donchian_breakout	long	54.5
PSKY	double_top	short	54.1
RIOT	double_top	short	52.1
RBLX	double_bottom	long	28.8

Ticker	From stage	To stage
STWD	accumulation	pullback
OUT	pullback	breakout
CGON	pullback	breakout
PPC	accumulation	pullback
D	pullback	breakout
AROC	pullback	breakout
HST	pullback	markup
KMI	pullback	breakout
MARA	pullback	markup
VIRT	mixed	breakout
CLF	mixed	accumulation
RAL	mixed	breakout
SIRI	mixed	breakout
SNDR	mixed	pullback
ESI	mixed	breakout

The pattern census shows 88 breakouts, 32 breakdowns, and 43 oversold signals. Setup counts include 8 double tops, 8 bear flags, 8 tight bases, 8 donchian breakdowns, 8 double bottoms, 8 donchian breakouts, 8 bull flags, 8 head and shoulders, and 3 gap up unfilled. Top setups: SYF donchian_breakdown short with opportunity score 79.26, D donchian_breakout long 70.1, LNC double_bottom long 69.7, and CWEN double_top short 64.2. Notable transitions include multiple pullback-to-breakout moves such as D, KMI, and SIRI.

Tomorrow Setup

Spread	Legs	Intraday	D1	WTD	MTD
Momentum - LowVol	MTUM − USMV	+2.07%	+2.07%	+1.77%	-7.49%
HighBeta - LowVol	SPHB − SPLV	+3.28%	+3.28%	+2.81%	-4.63%
Growth - Value	IWF − IWD	+0.75%	+0.75%	+1.94%	-2.33%
Small - Large	IWM − SPY	+0.43%	+0.43%	-1.04%	-1.73%
EqualWeight - CapWeight	RSP − SPY	-0.23%	-0.23%	-1.59%	-0.32%
Credit	HYG − LQD	+0.08%	+0.08%	+0.91%	+0.97%
Duration	TLT	+0.15%	+0.15%	-1.19%	-2.23%
Semis - Market	SMH − SPY	+1.64%	+1.64%	+1.68%	-8.00%
Momentum Leadership - Broken Momentum	Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership − Broken Momentum / Avoid	+3.24%	+3.24%	+2.14%	-5.26%
Quality - Extended Risk	Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend − Extended Momentum Risk	+2.91%	+2.91%	+1.43%	-4.01%

Under Choppy Neutral regime, the top setup for tomorrow is ACI with opportunity score 88.5, Wave 1 accumulation in Consumer Staples, regime fit 91.9, and intraday confirmation with a 1.41% since-close move. OZK follows at 87.2, Mixed/transition in Financials, regime fit 91.7, confirming with 1.62% since close. SWKS in Information Technology scores 83.3 with Wave 1 accumulation, regime fit 88.2, confirming with 0.32%. TAP and OWL fail confirmation, with scores of 84.6 and 81.7 respectively. Focus on ACI, OZK, and SWKS for confirmed opportunity.

Data Quality and Coverage

Source	As of
intraday_bars	2026-07-09T18:45:00-04:00
warehouse_snapshot	2026-07-09
proxy_daily	2026-07-08
screener_artifact	2026-07-08T20:33:12.166787-04:00
grouped_daily	2026-07-09

Overall coverage: 99.5%
Degraded baskets: theme:Healthcare / Biotech
Missing archived report days: 2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07
Report generated at 2026-07-09T19:00:38-04:00; every figure above is computed deterministically from report.json

Narration: 1 of 15 sections used the deterministic fallback (regime); all other sections are LLM-narrated