Midday verdict

SPY +0.27% since prior close; Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout leads (+1.31%), Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch lags (-2.21%).

Constructive RotationConstructive Rotation — historically persists ~5 trading days; p(stay) 0.80; a risk-STATE gauge — monotone in forward volatility, not direction.

Actionable Trading Ideas

High convictionregime:04 · n=194

Regime context — size to the state: Constructive Rotation

Constructive Rotation (composite 0.69, confidence 0.80)

This regime historically persists ~5 td, p_stay 0.80. Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — Distribution Risk historically preceded the BEST fwd-20d returns (+2.54%).

ExpressSet gross/net to the volatility state, not the label's tone; keep position sizing modest here.
FramingA risk-state gauge: size positions, do not chase direction off the label.
InvalidationInvalidated on a confirmed regime transition (the two-run confirmation rule).
Medium convictionsigma:04 · n=252

Stretched factor — mean-reversion watch: Growth - Value d1

Growth - Value d1 = +1.84% (+2.16σ vs 252d)

2.16σ extended vs 252d (n=252). Factor and regime extremes are risk-STATE signals, not direction calls (ref: the -3.45σ Momentum-LowVol week).

ExpressExpress via the pair: fade the leg that ran — long IWD / short IWF (or trim the spread).
FramingA >=2σ dislocation has historically reverted more often than it extends — this is a fade-the-extreme probability, not a directional forecast.
InvalidationInvalidated if the print keeps widening on rising volume or a fresh regime break confirms the move.
Medium convictionsigma:04 · n=28

Stretched factor — mean-reversion watch: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch d1

Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch d1 = -2.21% (-2.03σ vs 60d)

2.03σ compressed vs 60d (n=28). Factor and regime extremes are risk-STATE signals, not direction calls (ref: the -3.45σ Momentum-LowVol week).

ExpressTrim or rotate exposure in the named basket; do not add into the extreme.
FramingA >=2σ dislocation has historically reverted more often than it extends — this is a fade-the-extreme probability, not a directional forecast.
InvalidationInvalidated if the print keeps widening on rising volume or a fresh regime break confirms the move.
Low convictiongap:01 · n=74435

Gap fade — down-gap bounce into the close

IBM gapped -21.28% at the open

Down-gaps >=1% have bounced +13-14bps from 10:00 into the close (n=74,435, t=14.3, 51.6% up); strongest faders DIA/XLE/XLI/KRE/MDY/SPY.

ExpressFade intraday weakness in IBM, APP, HCA, SEZL, THC from ~10:00 ET toward the close.
FramingA small positive-expectancy mean-reversion, not a conviction long — tiny edge, tight risk.
InvalidationInvalidated if the gap keeps trending down through 10:30 on expanding volume.
Low convictiongap:01

Gap continuation — XHB up-gap follow-through

XHB gapped +1.28% at the open

Up-gaps show no open->close follow-through edge across proxies EXCEPT XHB (+0.22, t=2.63, 57% follow).

ExpressOnly XHB carries an up-gap continuation edge; treat other up-gaps as no-edge.
FramingA narrow, name-specific continuation edge — not a market signal.
InvalidationInvalidated on a failed open-range breakout.
Low convictionwarehouse:09

Event risk — crowded short float

MARA short float 28.0% (13 names >=20%)

High short-float names carry ~2.5x baseline odds of a +15% 10-day move (16.9% vs 6.8%), in BOTH directions.

ExpressTreat MARA, PATH, HIMS, TNGX as elevated-variance event risk; size for a two-sided move, not a squeeze long.
FramingEvent risk, not a buy signal — the distribution is fat-tailed both ways.
InvalidationNot a trade until a catalyst and confirmation align.
SPY+0.27%gap +0.23% · open +0.04%
Best factor+1.31%Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout
Worst factor-2.21%Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch
Breadth25%baskets +ve · A/D 452/547

Sigma Board

−3σ0+3σ
Growth - Value d1spread · +1.84% · 252d · n=252+2.16σ
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch d1basket · -2.21% · 60d · n=28-2.03σ
% above SMA200breadth · 67.50 · 60d · n=60+1.49σ
Momentum - LowVol d1spread · +2.26% · 252d · n=252+1.44σ
EqualWeight - CapWeight d1spread · -0.64% · 252d · n=252-1.24σ
Growth - Value w1spread · +2.08% · 252d · n=252+1.23σ
Quality - Extended Risk d1spread · +0.85% · 60d · n=28+1.21σ
Semis - Market d1spread · +2.20% · 252d · n=252+1.12σ

Volume anomalies are overwhelmingly distributional. IBM prints 16x relative volume on a 24% decline, HCA trades at 5.1x down 11%, BIIB at 4.2x off 3.95%, C at 3.4x losing 4.7%, and ISRG at 3.3x shedding 6.0%. All are clustered in Neutral/Transition or Broken Momentum baskets.

Intraday Factor Moves

Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout+1.31%
1 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.55
ID+1.3%
1D+1.3%
3D+2.5%
1W-3.6%
MTD+14.8%
1M+16.0%
3M+93.2%
YTD+53.8%
Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend+0.02%
1 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.53
ID+0.0%
1D+0.0%
3D+0.1%
1W+0.3%
MTD+0.5%
1M+1.7%
3M+1.0%
YTD+1.8%
1Y+25.1%
2Y+49.5%
Broken Momentum / Avoid-0.16%
145 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.65
ID-0.2%
1D-0.2%
3D+0.1%
1W-1.1%
MTD+0.4%
1M-5.0%
3M-15.8%
YTD-15.9%
1Y-13.9%
2Y+10.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadership-0.27%
183 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.63
ID-0.3%
1D-0.3%
3D-0.9%
1W+0.7%
MTD+0.1%
1M+12.2%
3M+42.4%
YTD+59.4%
1Y+86.4%
2Y+116.0%
Neutral / Transition-0.37%
640 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.66
ID-0.4%
1D-0.4%
3D-0.2%
1W-0.5%
MTD-0.6%
1M+1.4%
3M+7.2%
YTD+15.2%
1Y+29.1%
2Y+48.6%
Extended Momentum Risk-0.83%
4 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.83
ID-0.8%
1D-0.8%
3D-0.8%
1W+1.7%
MTD+8.3%
1M+18.3%
3M+19.1%
YTD+8.6%
1Y-7.5%
2Y+8.0%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-2.21%
29 names · 97% cov · rvol 0.90
ID-2.2%
1D-2.2%
3D-3.7%
1W-4.5%
MTD-14.2%
1M-18.8%
3M-7.6%
YTD+3.1%
1Y+31.0%
2Y+121.7%

Week-to-date factor spreads show HighBeta trailing LowVol by 1.27% and Semis underperforming the market by 1.29%. Quality outperforms Extended Risk by 0.85%. The Momentum-LowVol spread is flat at -0.06%, Credit adds 0.19%, while Duration detracts 0.37%.

Sector Rotation

Energy+2.44%
Utilities+0.47%
Real Estate+0.31%
Financials+0.09%
Communication Services-0.18%
Materials-0.23%
Information Technology-0.37%
Industrials-0.62%
Consumer Staples-0.89%
Consumer Discretionary-1.18%
Health Care-1.35%

Energy leads all sectors with a 2.44% intraday gain on 85% advancing breadth. Health Care (-1.35%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.18%), and Consumer Staples (-0.89%) constitute the weakest links. Energy maintains its week-to-date gain of 2.44%, while Health Care has shed 1.35% on the week.

Themes and Keyword Baskets

Cybersecurity+0.8%1D
154 names · 71% cov
ID+1.5%WTD+0.8%MTD+1.4%YTD+15.6%
Cloud Software+0.5%1D
279 names · 80% cov
ID+0.8%WTD+0.5%MTD+2.9%YTD+13.5%
Oil & Gas+0.1%1D
377 names · 78% cov
ID+0.2%WTD+0.1%MTD+0.2%YTD+23.0%
Financials / Credit-0.0%1D
694 names · 63% cov
ID-0.0%WTD-0.0%MTD+1.3%YTD+12.7%
Macro Rates / Inflation-0.1%1D
505 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID-0.2%WTD-0.1%MTD-0.7%YTD+14.8%
Housing / Real Estate-0.1%1D
445 names · 70% cov
ID-0.2%WTD-0.1%MTD-1.3%YTD+11.4%
Commodities / Materials-0.2%1D
186 names · 74% cov
ID-0.3%WTD-0.2%MTD-4.1%YTD+11.4%
Consumer / Retail-0.2%1D
492 names · 74% cov
ID-0.4%WTD-0.2%MTD-0.1%YTD+6.9%
AI Infrastructure-0.2%1D
857 names · 81% cov
ID-0.4%WTD-0.2%MTD-2.4%YTD+23.4%
Crypto / Digital Assets-0.3%1D
155 names · 69% cov
ID-0.4%WTD-0.3%MTD+1.2%YTD+16.7%
Energy Transition-0.3%1D
1192 names · 67% cov
ID-0.6%WTD-0.3%MTD-1.5%YTD+17.3%
Defense / Aerospace-0.4%1D
264 names · 81% cov
ID-0.7%WTD-0.4%MTD-5.3%YTD+25.5%
Industrial Automation-0.4%1D
511 names · 77% cov
ID-0.7%WTD-0.4%MTD-3.2%YTD+23.4%
Healthcare / Biotech degraded-0.4%1D
641 names · 58% cov
ID-1.1%WTD-0.4%MTD+1.1%YTD+26.0%
Semiconductors-0.5%1D
250 names · 90% cov
ID-0.8%WTD-0.5%MTD-5.6%YTD+47.6%

Cybersecurity is the standout theme, up 1.49% intraday with solid participation. Cloud Software follows at +0.75%. On the downside, Healthcare/Biotech drops 1.11% with degraded coverage, Semiconductors give back 0.76%, and Defense/Aerospace loses 0.72%. Oil & Gas ticks up 0.17%, benefiting from Energy sector strength.

Factor × Sector Map

Thematic Momentum Leadershipn6
Energy
+5.9%1D
ID+5.9%WTD+5.9%MTD+15.7%
Neutral / Transitionn27
Energy
+2.1%1D
ID+2.1%WTD+2.1%MTD+4.8%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Materials
+1.9%1D
ID+1.9%WTD+1.9%MTD-13.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn3
Utilities
+1.0%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+1.0%MTD+1.0%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn42
Information Technology
+0.8%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+0.8%MTD-3.4%
Neutral / Transitionn38
Utilities
+0.6%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.6%MTD+1.0%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn6
Energy
+0.6%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.6%MTD-1.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn12
Financials
+0.5%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+0.5%MTD+6.8%
Neutral / Transitionn50
Real Estate
+0.5%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+0.5%MTD+1.0%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn19
Information Technology
+0.5%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+0.5%MTD+4.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn14
Communication Services
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.3%MTD+1.1%
Neutral / Transitionn103
Financials
+0.2%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+0.2%MTD+2.6%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn12
Materials
+0.2%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+0.2%MTD+0.6%
Neutral / Transitionn21
Communication Services
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD+4.3%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn5
Real Estate
-0.1%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-0.1%MTD-0.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn26
Industrials
-0.2%1D
ID-0.2%WTD-0.2%MTD-4.0%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn29
Financials
-0.2%1D
ID-0.2%WTD-0.2%MTD+4.5%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn11
Real Estate
-0.4%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-0.4%MTD-0.2%
Neutral / Transitionn22
Materials
-0.5%1D
ID-0.5%WTD-0.5%MTD-3.3%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn10
Industrials
-0.5%1D
ID-0.5%WTD-0.5%MTD-12.8%
Neutral / Transitionn118
Industrials
-0.6%1D
ID-0.6%WTD-0.6%MTD-4.2%
Neutral / Transitionn96
Information Technology
-0.7%1D
ID-0.7%WTD-0.7%MTD-2.9%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn17
Consumer Discretionary
-0.8%1D
ID-0.8%WTD-0.8%MTD+2.5%
Neutral / Transitionn29
Consumer Staples
-0.8%1D
ID-0.8%WTD-0.8%MTD+1.0%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn23
Consumer Discretionary
-0.8%1D
ID-0.8%WTD-0.8%MTD-1.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn12
Consumer Staples
-0.9%1D
ID-0.9%WTD-0.9%MTD+0.8%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn48
Health Care
-0.9%1D
ID-0.9%WTD-0.9%MTD+1.0%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn6
Communication Services
-1.2%1D
ID-1.2%WTD-1.2%MTD-3.0%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn6
Consumer Staples
-1.4%1D
ID-1.4%WTD-1.4%MTD+1.2%
Neutral / Transitionn66
Consumer Discretionary
-1.4%1D
ID-1.4%WTD-1.4%MTD-2.4%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn22
Industrials
-1.4%1D
ID-1.4%WTD-1.4%MTD-5.4%
Neutral / Transitionn70
Health Care
-1.5%1D
ID-1.5%WTD-1.5%MTD+0.8%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Utilities
-1.7%1D
ID-1.7%WTD-1.7%MTD-4.1%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn7
Health Care
-1.9%1D
ID-1.9%WTD-1.9%MTD+0.8%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn7
Information Technology
-5.5%1D
ID-5.5%WTD-5.5%MTD-18.3%
Where each factor basket is working by sector — sorted by 1-day equal-weight return, ≥3 names per cell.

Regime Assessment

trend+1.05
breadth+0.50
volatility+1.00
rotation-0.35
size-0.10
style+1.50
p(stay 1d)0.80
p(persist 5d)0.31
expected dwell5.0 td
samplen=194

Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — size positions to the risk state, don't chase the label. Transition is empirical; a label change needs two-run confirmation.

The regime has shifted to Constructive Rotation, scoring 0.69 with 80% confidence. The composite reflects strong style momentum (1.50) and trend (1.05) against weak breadth (0.50) and negative rotation (-0.35). Volatility sits at the 58th percentile of the two-year range, with intraday true range at 0.50x its 20-day average, indicating subdued realized swings. Empirically, this regime has an expected dwell of just 5 sessions and only a 31% five-day persistence probability, reflecting the fragile nature of current rotation dynamics.

Session Snapshot

SPY+0.3%rvol 0.9
QQQ+1.1%rvol 1.2
DIA-0.3%rvol 1.5
IWM+0.3%rvol 1.3
MDY+0.3%rvol 0.9
IJR+0.1%rvol 0.8
RSP-0.4%rvol 1.3
VTI+0.3%rvol 1.9
XLK+1.4%rvol 1.0
XLF+0.3%rvol 2.2
XLE-0.3%rvol 1.8
XLV-2.0%rvol 1.9
XLI-0.1%rvol 1.5
XLY-0.3%rvol 1.5
XLP-1.2%rvol 1.0
XLU-0.1%rvol 1.4
XLB+0.1%rvol 1.3
XLC+0.0%rvol 0.9
XLRE-0.7%rvol 1.3
MTUM+1.6%rvol 1.1
VLUE+0.9%rvol 0.5
QUAL+0.2%rvol 0.7
USMV-0.7%rvol 0.8
SPLV-0.6%rvol 1.1
SPHB+1.4%rvol 3.2
IWF+1.3%rvol 0.9
IWD-0.6%rvol 0.5
VUG+0.8%rvol 1.2
VTV-0.4%rvol 1.3
SMH+2.5%rvol 1.1
XBI+0.3%rvol 1.3
ITA+0.7%rvol 0.9
KRE+0.0%rvol 1.2
XHB+0.2%rvol 1.2
TAN+3.9%rvol 1.0
TLT+0.2%rvol 1.3
IEF+0.3%rvol 1.2
HYG+0.1%rvol 1.4
LQD+0.2%rvol 1.9
GLD+1.4%rvol 1.7
USO+1.7%rvol 3.3
UUP-0.5%rvol 1.1

The equity regime has transitioned from Choppy Neutral to Constructive Rotation, with the composite score at 0.69. The session is sharply bifurcated: Energy surges 2.44% on 85% advancing breadth, while Health Care drops 1.35% with only 35% of members positive. Consumer Discretionary and Staples also lag, down 1.18% and 0.89% respectively.

Size and Breadth

Size bucketNIntradayD1WTDBreadth
Large (>=5B)1003-0.37%-0.37%-0.37%45.1% adv
Micro Cap $250M-$1B220n/a+0.00%+0.00%0.0% adv
Nano Cap <$250M16n/a+0.00%+0.00%0.0% adv
Small Cap $1B-$5B805n/a+0.00%+0.00%0.0% adv
% > SMA50% > SMA200AdvancersDecliners% Baskets Positive
62.6%67.5%45254725.0%

The size complex shows intraday small-cap outperformance with small-large spread at +0.08%, reversing last week's -1.03% and month's -0.41%. Breadth is challenged: only 62.6% of names trade above their 50-day moving average, and the advance-decline ratio sits at 0.83. Just 25% of production baskets are positive, confirming narrow market leadership.

Volume and Participation

DimensionBasketMedian RVol% Members RVol>1.5
productionBroken Momentum / Avoid0.655.5%
productionExtended Momentum Risk0.830.0%
productionNeutral / Transition0.665.9%
productionOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch0.9010.7%
productionQuality / Low-Vol Uptrend0.530.0%
productionSmaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout0.550.0%
productionThematic Momentum Leadership0.636.6%
TickerBasketRVolReturnNote
IBMNeutral / Transition16.03-24.11%distribution volume
HCANeutral / Transition5.14-11.03%distribution volume
BIIBNeutral / Transition4.16-3.95%distribution volume
CNeutral / Transition3.37-4.74%distribution volume
ISRGBroken Momentum / Avoid3.28-5.97%distribution volume

Volume analysis flags concentrated distribution. The Oversold/Mean-Reversion Watch basket trades at 0.90 median relative volume, with 10.7% of members exceeding 1.5x, while Neutral/Transition averages 0.66. Notable anomalies include IBM (rvol 16.0, -24.1%), HCA (rvol 5.1, -11.0%), and BIIB (rvol 4.2, -4.0%), all on high-volume declines within the Neutral/Transition basket. Low-vol uptrend baskets show benign volume, reinforcing a risk-off flow into defensives.

Cross-Asset Confirmation

CAC +1.00 — risk-supportive (positive = risk-supportive)

Signal5dPoints
Credit (HYG−LQD)+1.15%+0.60
Risk vs defensives+2.55%+0.40
Dollar (−UUP)-0.64%-0.15
Curve (IEF/TLT)+0.80%+0.15

Duration-in-disguise — 63d TLT beta of style spreads

SpreadTLT ββ · SPY-ctrlβ%ileDuration read
Momentum - LowVol1.350.24100%duration-driven (current, unstable)
Growth - Value0.23-0.2192%duration-driven (current, unstable)
HighBeta - LowVol1.48-0.01100%duration-driven (current, unstable)
Small - Large0.620.6898%duration-driven (persistent)

Opportunity Watchlist

TickerSectorOpportunityWave stageRegime fit
OKLOUtilities93.2Wave 1 / accumulation95.8
SWKSInformation Technology90.3Wave 1 / accumulation92.9
TAPConsumer Staples91.4Wave 1 / accumulation91.9
OZKFinancials86.3Wave 3-5 / breakout91.5
CGONHealth Care85.1Wave 3-5 / breakout90.3
TickerSince closeVs basketRead
OKLO-6.16%-3.95%diverges
SWKS-3.83%-1.62%diverges
TAP-1.79%-1.63%diverges
OZK+0.17%+0.54%confirms
CGON-4.47%-4.20%diverges

Opportunity signals center on short-side technical breakdowns, with PSKY (double top, 73.6) and RIOT (double top, 73.5) leading. Long setups are scarcer; FTDR (double bottom, 65.3) and TMHC (tight base, 61.7) offer modest score. Screening identified OKLO (93.2) and SWKS (90.3) but both failed intraday confirmation, falling -6.2% and -3.8% respectively. Only OZK (86.3) affirmed its breakout with a 0.2% gain on the day, while CGON lagged -4.5%. The pattern list underscores a heavy skew toward distribution.

Multi-Horizon Context
BasketD3WTDMTD
production: Broken Momentum / Avoid+0.14%-0.16%+0.39%
production: Extended Momentum Risk-0.82%-0.83%+8.30%
production: Neutral / Transition-0.24%-0.37%-0.55%
production: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-3.67%-2.21%-14.21%
production: Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend+0.15%+0.02%+0.47%
production: Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout+2.46%+1.31%+14.82%
production: Thematic Momentum Leadership-0.87%-0.27%+0.11%
theme: AI Infrastructure-0.83%-0.25%-2.37%
theme: Cloud Software-0.03%+0.47%+2.92%
theme: Commodities / Materials-0.34%-0.17%-4.11%
theme: Consumer / Retail+0.38%-0.24%-0.12%
theme: Crypto / Digital Assets-0.76%-0.26%+1.17%
theme: Cybersecurity-0.24%+0.78%+1.38%
theme: Defense / Aerospace-1.29%-0.41%-5.28%
theme: Energy Transition-0.81%-0.29%-1.48%
theme: Financials / Credit+0.07%-0.01%+1.28%
theme: Healthcare / Biotech-2.04%-0.43%+1.08%
theme: Housing / Real Estate+0.06%-0.13%-1.31%
theme: Industrial Automation-0.33%-0.42%-3.20%
theme: Macro Rates / Inflation+0.26%-0.12%-0.73%
theme: Oil & Gas-0.70%+0.09%+0.19%
theme: Semiconductors-1.12%-0.51%-5.61%
sector: Communication Services-0.80%-0.18%+1.42%
sector: Consumer Discretionary-0.24%-1.18%-1.35%
sector: Consumer Staples+0.66%-0.89%+0.96%
sector: Energy+2.39%+2.44%+5.12%
sector: Financials+0.34%+0.09%+3.13%
sector: Health Care-2.53%-1.35%+0.67%
sector: Industrials-0.46%-0.62%-4.82%
sector: Information Technology-1.20%-0.37%-2.69%
sector: Materials+0.25%-0.23%-3.30%
sector: Real Estate+0.49%+0.31%+0.67%
sector: Utilities+1.06%+0.47%+0.68%
size: Large (>=5B)-0.39%-0.37%-0.64%
size: Micro Cap $250M-$1B-1.14%+0.00%-0.07%
size: Nano Cap <$250M-2.88%+0.00%-3.31%
size: Small Cap $1B-$5B-0.35%+0.00%-0.62%
style: Base Building / Coiled-0.22%-0.51%-1.31%
style: Extended Overbought Momentum-0.11%-0.08%+8.40%
style: High-Vol Breakdown-1.08%-0.65%-0.61%
style: High-Vol Momentum+2.46%+1.31%+14.82%
style: Low-Vol Uptrend-0.33%-0.72%-0.89%
style: Momentum Breakout / Leadership-0.04%+0.67%+4.10%
style: Neutral / Transition-0.67%-0.67%-2.00%
style: Normal Vol/Trend-0.49%-0.30%-0.29%
style: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-3.67%-2.21%-14.21%
style: Persistent Uptrend / Compounder+0.19%+0.02%+1.68%
style: Weak Downtrend / Avoid Momentum+0.14%-0.16%+0.39%

Over the past month, high-beta momentum baskets dominated with Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout up 14.8%, while Oversold/Mean-Reversion fell -14.2%, producing a Momentum-LowVol spread of -7.5%. Semiconductors lagged the market by -9.1% month-to-date. The three-day view shows Energy (+2.4%) and High-Vol Momentum (+2.5%) leading, while Oversold fell -3.7%. Week-to-date performance mirrors this with Energy +2.4% and Oversold -2.2%. Breadth is flat short-term but deteriorating monthly; just 62.6% above 50-day and the advance-decline ratio at 0.83 underscore narrow participation.

Top Single-Stock Setups (4h–1 Week)

#1FFIVInformation Technology100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 8.0/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 611w +5.5%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$420.95
RSI61
1wk+5.5%
ATR stop−4.7%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=183)
-14%+18%
#2CGONHealth Care100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.8/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 611w +6.9%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$72.55
RSI61
1wk+6.9%
ATR stop−7.9%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=183)
-14%+18%
#3CARTConsumer Discretionary100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.5/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 611w +5.7%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$47.92
RSI62
1wk+5.7%
ATR stop−6.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=183)
-14%+18%
#4CROXConsumer Discretionary100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.3/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 601w +6.0%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$130.46
RSI61
1wk+6.0%
ATR stop−5.8%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=183)
-14%+18%
#5PFGFinancials99
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.1/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 631w +1.2%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$113.61
RSI64
1wk+1.2%
ATR stop−3.1%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=183)
-14%+18%

Long-only opportunity lens: names where the factor basket and the technical state agree over a 4-hour-to-1-week window. Confluence score, not a price target — size to the ATR stop and treat every setup as a probability, not a promise.

Long-only confluence screen: the factor engine's basket and the technical state pointing the same way over a 4-hour-to-1-week window.

Data Quality and Coverage

SourceAs of
intraday_bars2026-07-14T12:45:00-04:00
warehouse_snapshot2026-07-14
proxy_daily2026-07-13
screener_artifact2026-07-13T20:54:29.913442-04:00
grouped_dailyunavailable
  • Overall coverage: 99.8%
  • Degraded baskets: theme:Healthcare / Biotech
  • Missing archived report days: 2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07
  • Report generated at 2026-07-14T13:02:58-04:00; every figure above is computed deterministically from report.json
BoltFactors © 2026 · MIDDAY edition · 2026-07-14 · GitHub · every number is computed deterministically from report.json before narration; ideas pair today's live trigger with a static historical prior.