Wrap verdict

SPY +0.40% since prior close; Broken Momentum / Avoid leads (+0.63%), Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout lags (-2.73%).

Constructive RotationConstructive Rotation — historically persists ~5 trading days; p(stay) 0.80; a risk-STATE gauge — monotone in forward volatility, not direction.

Actionable Trading Ideas

High convictionregime:04 · n=194

Regime context — size to the state: Constructive Rotation

Constructive Rotation (composite 0.65, confidence 0.80)

This regime historically persists ~5 td, p_stay 0.80. Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — Distribution Risk historically preceded the BEST fwd-20d returns (+2.54%).

ExpressSet gross/net to the volatility state, not the label's tone; keep position sizing modest here.
FramingA risk-state gauge: size positions, do not chase direction off the label.
InvalidationInvalidated on a confirmed regime transition (the two-run confirmation rule).
Low convictiongap:01 · n=74435

Gap fade — down-gap bounce into the close

CELC gapped -10.19% at the open

Down-gaps >=1% have bounced +13-14bps from 10:00 into the close (n=74,435, t=14.3, 51.6% up); strongest faders DIA/XLE/XLI/KRE/MDY/SPY.

ExpressFade intraday weakness in CELC, PGR, ELV, LESL, TNDM from ~10:00 ET toward the close.
FramingA small positive-expectancy mean-reversion, not a conviction long — tiny edge, tight risk.
InvalidationInvalidated if the gap keeps trending down through 10:30 on expanding volume.
Low convictionwarehouse:09

Event risk — crowded short float

MARA short float 28.0% (13 names >=20%)

High short-float names carry ~2.5x baseline odds of a +15% 10-day move (16.9% vs 6.8%), in BOTH directions.

ExpressTreat MARA, PATH, HIMS, TNGX as elevated-variance event risk; size for a two-sided move, not a squeeze long.
FramingEvent risk, not a buy signal — the distribution is fat-tailed both ways.
InvalidationNot a trade until a catalyst and confirmation align.
SPY+0.40%gap +0.32% · open +0.08%
Best factor+0.63%Broken Momentum / Avoid
Worst factor-2.73%Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout
Breadth42%baskets +ve · A/D 521/474

Sigma Board

−3σ0+3σ
% above SMA200breadth · 67.90 · 60d · n=60+1.48σ
Quality - Extended Risk d1spread · +1.12% · 60d · n=30+1.38σ
Semis - Market d1spread · -1.99% · 252d · n=252-1.26σ
EqualWeight - CapWeight d1spread · -0.62% · 252d · n=252-1.19σ
Extended Momentum Risk d1basket · -1.11% · 60d · n=30-1.07σ
Credit d1spread · -0.18% · 60d · n=60-1.07σ
Momentum - LowVol d1spread · -1.40% · 252d · n=252-1.01σ
Semis - Market w1spread · -1.64% · 252d · n=252-0.83σ
EqualWeight - CapWeight w1spread · -0.90% · 252d · n=252-0.71σ
Broken Momentum / Avoid d1basket · +0.63% · 60d · n=30+0.54σ
Credit w1spread · +0.27% · 252d · n=252+0.53σ
% above SMA50breadth · 63.01 · 252d · n=252+0.50σ

Most stretched print: % above SMA200 at 67.90 (z60 1.48, n=60).

Closing Factor Performance

Broken Momentum / Avoid+0.63%
163 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.75
ID+0.6%
1D+0.6%
3D-0.3%
1W+0.2%
MTD+0.1%
1M-4.6%
3M-15.0%
YTD-15.4%
1Y-13.2%
2Y+7.4%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch+0.30%
25 names · 96% cov · rvol 0.93
ID+0.3%
1D+0.3%
3D-4.0%
1W-6.3%
MTD-14.2%
1M-18.9%
3M-11.8%
YTD-3.9%
1Y+27.9%
2Y+79.6%
Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend+0.01%
1 names · 100% cov · rvol 3.45
ID+0.0%
1D+0.0%
3D+0.0%
1W+0.3%
MTD+0.5%
1M+1.5%
3M+0.7%
YTD+1.8%
1Y+26.1%
2Y+38.6%
Neutral / Transition-0.03%
627 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.80
ID-0.0%
1D-0.0%
3D-0.3%
1W+0.8%
MTD-0.8%
1M+0.4%
3M+7.1%
YTD+17.2%
1Y+31.6%
2Y+51.1%
Thematic Momentum Leadership-0.48%
183 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.79
ID-0.5%
1D-0.5%
3D-0.0%
1W+1.4%
MTD+1.5%
1M+11.7%
3M+39.6%
YTD+54.6%
1Y+78.9%
2Y+107.1%
Extended Momentum Risk-1.11%
3 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.97
ID-1.1%
1D-1.1%
3D-0.5%
1W+2.6%
MTD+6.0%
1M+16.4%
3M+22.9%
YTD+16.0%
1Y-29.1%
2Y-24.1%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout-2.73%
1 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.97
ID-2.7%
1D-2.7%
3D-2.4%
1W-0.9%
MTD+10.6%
1M+26.9%
3M+82.6%
YTD+48.1%

Best production basket: Broken Momentum / Avoid +0.63% D1; worst: Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout -2.73%.

Sector Rotation

Communication Services+1.63%
Consumer Discretionary+0.74%
Financials+0.72%
Health Care+0.40%
Real Estate+0.37%
Industrials-0.02%
Consumer Staples-0.15%
Materials-0.34%
Energy-0.98%
Utilities-1.02%
Information Technology-1.36%

Best sector: Communication Services +1.63% D1; worst: Information Technology -1.36%.

Themes and Keyword Baskets

Crypto / Digital Assets+0.8%1D
155 names · 69% cov
ID+0.8%WTD+0.6%MTD+2.3%YTD+13.3%
Consumer / Retail+0.7%1D
492 names · 75% cov
ID+0.7%WTD+0.1%MTD+0.2%YTD+7.7%
Healthcare / Biotech degraded+0.7%1D
642 names · 58% cov
ID+0.7%WTD-1.0%MTD+0.4%YTD+25.4%
Housing / Real Estate+0.6%1D
442 names · 71% cov
ID+0.6%WTD+0.4%MTD-0.8%YTD+12.0%
Financials / Credit+0.6%1D
691 names · 63% cov
ID+0.6%WTD+0.5%MTD+1.8%YTD+13.5%
Macro Rates / Inflation+0.3%1D
502 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+0.3%WTD-0.1%MTD-0.8%YTD+14.7%
Energy Transition+0.2%1D
1200 names · 68% cov
ID+0.2%WTD-0.5%MTD-1.6%YTD+16.7%
Oil & Gas-0.1%1D
379 names · 79% cov
ID-0.1%WTD-0.1%MTD+0.1%YTD+22.5%
Cloud Software-0.1%1D
276 names · 79% cov
ID-0.1%WTD+0.0%MTD+2.6%YTD+13.8%
Industrial Automation-0.1%1D
515 names · 77% cov
ID-0.1%WTD-0.7%MTD-3.5%YTD+22.9%
Defense / Aerospace-0.4%1D
263 names · 81% cov
ID-0.4%WTD-1.3%MTD-6.2%YTD+23.0%
AI Infrastructure-0.4%1D
861 names · 81% cov
ID-0.4%WTD-0.8%MTD-2.7%YTD+22.1%
Commodities / Materials-0.5%1D
187 names · 74% cov
ID-0.5%WTD-0.3%MTD-4.2%YTD+11.4%
Semiconductors-0.8%1D
258 names · 91% cov
ID-0.8%WTD-1.6%MTD-6.2%YTD+45.4%
Cybersecurity-1.0%1D
153 names · 71% cov
ID-1.0%WTD+0.2%MTD+0.8%YTD+15.2%

Best theme: Crypto / Digital Assets +0.76% D1; worst: Cybersecurity -1.02%.

Factor × Sector Map

Broken Momentum / Avoidn16
Communication Services
+2.1%1D
ID+2.1%WTD+1.6%MTD+2.1%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn13
Health Care
+1.7%1D
ID+1.7%WTD-2.7%MTD+0.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn11
Financials
+1.5%1D
ID+1.5%WTD+2.4%MTD+8.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn7
Industrials
+1.5%1D
ID+1.5%WTD+0.2%MTD-15.7%
Neutral / Transitionn22
Communication Services
+1.4%1D
ID+1.4%WTD+0.8%MTD+3.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn13
Consumer Discretionary
+1.4%1D
ID+1.4%WTD+1.6%MTD+4.8%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn4
Communication Services
+1.0%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+1.8%MTD+6.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn13
Real Estate
+0.9%1D
ID+0.9%WTD+0.3%MTD+0.8%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn7
Real Estate
+0.9%1D
ID+0.9%WTD+1.8%MTD+2.4%
Neutral / Transitionn68
Consumer Discretionary
+0.8%1D
ID+0.8%WTD-0.4%MTD-1.1%
Neutral / Transitionn103
Financials
+0.8%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+0.9%MTD+3.2%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Health Care
+0.8%1D
ID+0.8%WTD-4.8%MTD-10.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn24
Information Technology
+0.7%1D
ID+0.7%WTD-1.1%MTD+1.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn23
Consumer Discretionary
+0.4%1D
ID+0.4%WTD-0.3%MTD-1.1%
Neutral / Transitionn61
Health Care
+0.4%1D
ID+0.4%WTD-0.7%MTD+1.4%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn32
Financials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.5%MTD+5.6%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn29
Industrials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD-0.4%MTD-4.3%
Neutral / Transitionn46
Real Estate
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.9%MTD+1.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn23
Industrials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD-0.5%MTD-3.1%
Neutral / Transitionn28
Consumer Staples
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD-1.2%MTD+0.8%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn49
Health Care
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD-0.5%MTD+1.5%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn13
Consumer Staples
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD-0.9%MTD+1.0%
Neutral / Transitionn22
Materials
-0.1%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-0.1%MTD-2.6%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn7
Information Technology
-0.1%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-9.5%MTD-16.9%
Neutral / Transitionn117
Industrials
-0.2%1D
ID-0.2%WTD-0.4%MTD-4.4%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn4
Utilities
-0.4%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-0.3%MTD-1.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn12
Materials
-0.4%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-0.6%MTD-0.8%
Neutral / Transitionn29
Energy
-0.8%1D
ID-0.8%WTD+1.9%MTD+4.1%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn5
Energy
-1.0%1D
ID-1.0%WTD-0.0%MTD-4.8%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn6
Consumer Staples
-1.0%1D
ID-1.0%WTD-0.7%MTD+0.2%
Neutral / Transitionn37
Utilities
-1.2%1D
ID-1.2%WTD-0.8%MTD-0.5%
Neutral / Transitionn94
Information Technology
-1.4%1D
ID-1.4%WTD-2.2%MTD-5.8%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn4
Materials
-1.6%1D
ID-1.6%WTD-0.8%MTD-12.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn6
Energy
-1.8%1D
ID-1.8%WTD+5.6%MTD+16.5%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn40
Information Technology
-2.7%1D
ID-2.7%WTD-1.4%MTD-2.8%
Where each factor basket is working by sector — sorted by 1-day equal-weight return, ≥3 names per cell.

Regime Assessment

trend+1.05
breadth+0.70
volatility+1.00
rotation-0.85
size+0.20
style+1.00
p(stay 1d)0.80
p(persist 5d)0.31
expected dwell5.0 td
samplen=194

Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — size positions to the risk state, don't chase the label. Transition is empirical; a label change needs two-run confirmation.

Constructive Rotation regime with composite 0.65 and confidence 0.8. Volatility score 1.0 reflects RV20 at the 57.6th percentile, consistent with moderate tail risk. Trend and breadth scores of 1.05 and 0.7 indicate broad participation above moving averages. Rotation score of -0.85 signals a sharp short-term reversal bias, while style favors momentum and high beta. Expected regime dwell is 5 days.

Session Snapshot

SPY+0.4%rvol 0.8
QQQ-0.3%rvol 0.8
DIA+0.2%rvol 0.7
IWM+0.4%rvol 0.8
MDY+0.0%rvol 0.6
IJR+0.5%rvol 0.7
RSP-0.2%rvol 0.9
VTI+0.3%rvol 0.8
XLK-1.1%rvol 0.8
XLF+0.7%rvol 1.4
XLE-0.8%rvol 1.0
XLV+0.0%rvol 1.0
XLI-0.2%rvol 1.0
XLY+0.9%rvol 1.1
XLP+0.1%rvol 0.6
XLU-1.0%rvol 0.8
XLB-0.3%rvol 1.1
XLC+1.7%rvol 0.8
XLRE+0.2%rvol 0.8
MTUM-2.2%rvol 2.5
VLUE-2.1%rvol 1.4
QUAL+0.3%rvol 0.8
USMV-0.8%rvol 1.8
SPLV-0.6%rvol 1.0
SPHB-0.8%rvol 1.4
IWF+0.3%rvol 0.9
IWD+0.4%rvol 0.4
VUG+0.9%rvol 1.3
VTV-0.5%rvol 1.0
SMH-1.6%rvol 0.9
XBI+0.5%rvol 0.5
ITA+0.5%rvol 0.8
KRE+1.0%rvol 0.9
XHB+0.7%rvol 0.7
TAN+1.2%rvol 0.7
TLT+0.2%rvol 0.7
IEF+0.2%rvol 1.1
HYG+0.2%rvol 0.9
LQD+0.3%rvol 0.9
GLD+0.1%rvol 1.0
USO+1.0%rvol 1.0
UUP-0.5%rvol 1.0

The session closed under a Constructive Rotation regime with a composite score of 0.6475 and confidence of 0.8. Volatility scored 1.0 with 2-year realized vol at the 57.6th percentile, while the rotation component registered -0.85, signaling active sector leadership churn. The transition model assigns an 80% probability of remaining in this regime for one day, with an expected dwell of 5.0 days. The composite improved by 0.08 from the prior close, driven by a 0.5 increase in the rotation subscore and a 0.2 uptick in size, while trend, breadth, volatility, and style were unchanged.

What Worked Today

BasketSideTickerReturnWeight
Broken Momentum / AvoidtopHCA+3.82%0.01
Broken Momentum / AvoidtopPFE+2.27%0.02
Broken Momentum / AvoidtopCBRE+6.22%0.01
Broken Momentum / AvoidbottomWMT-1.15%0.14
Broken Momentum / AvoidbottomMCD-1.52%0.03
Broken Momentum / AvoidbottomORLY-3.58%0.01
Oversold / Mean-Reversion WatchtopORCL+3.05%0.38
Oversold / Mean-Reversion WatchtopISRG+2.17%0.13
Oversold / Mean-Reversion WatchtopROAD+6.69%0.01
Oversold / Mean-Reversion WatchbottomIBM-3.57%0.23
Oversold / Mean-Reversion WatchbottomIONQ-4.77%0.02
Oversold / Mean-Reversion WatchbottomSOLS-4.42%0.01
Smaller-Cap High-Beta BreakoutbottomNAVN-2.73%1.00

Broken Momentum / Avoid led the session at +0.63% D1, paced by HCA +3.82%.

Size and Breadth

Size bucketNIntradayD1WTDBreadth
Large (>=5B)1003-0.00%-0.00%-0.32%52.1% adv
Micro Cap $250M-$1B213+0.03%+0.03%-1.12%52.9% adv
Nano Cap <$250M16-4.45%-4.45%+0.72%0.0% adv
Small Cap $1B-$5B805+0.57%+0.57%+0.28%65.1% adv
% > SMA50% > SMA200AdvancersDecliners% Baskets Positive
63.0%67.9%52147441.7%

63.0% of the universe holds above the 50-day and 67.9% above the 200-day; advancers 521 vs decliners 474.

Volume and Participation

DimensionBasketMedian RVol% Members RVol>1.5
productionBroken Momentum / Avoid0.753.7%
productionExtended Momentum Risk0.970.0%
productionNeutral / Transition0.803.7%
productionOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch0.9312.5%
productionQuality / Low-Vol Uptrend3.45100.0%
productionSmaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout0.970.0%
productionThematic Momentum Leadership0.796.0%
TickerBasketRVolReturnNote
PYPLNeutral / Transition5.63+17.25%breakout volume
FHNNeutral / Transition3.06-2.99%distribution volume
IBMOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch2.68-3.57%distribution volume
ERIENeutral / Transition2.57-11.86%distribution volume

PYPL prints 5.63x relative volume in Neutral / Transition at +17.25%.

Cross-Asset Confirmation

CAC +0.85 — risk-supportive (positive = risk-supportive)

Signal5dPoints
Credit (HYG−LQD)+0.52%+0.30
Risk vs defensives+1.54%+0.40
Dollar (−UUP)+0.04%+0.00
Curve (IEF/TLT)+0.40%+0.15

Duration-in-disguise — 63d TLT beta of style spreads

SpreadTLT ββ · SPY-ctrlβ%ileDuration read
Momentum - LowVol1.380.26100%duration-driven (current, unstable)
Growth - Value0.24-0.2093%duration-driven (current, unstable)
HighBeta - LowVol1.47-0.00100%duration-driven (current, unstable)
Small - Large0.620.6798%duration-driven (persistent)

Opportunity Watchlist

TickerSectorOpportunityWave stageRegime fit
OKLOUtilities93.2Wave 1 / accumulation96.9
TAPConsumer Staples94.0Wave 1 / accumulation94.2
CMCSACommunication Services90.5Wave 1 / accumulation90.7
SWKSInformation Technology86.8Wave 1 / accumulation88.4
OZKFinancials84.6Wave 3-5 / breakout87.8
TickerSince closeVs basketRead
OKLO-1.23%-1.53%diverges
TAP+1.79%+1.16%confirms
CMCSA+1.12%+0.49%confirms
SWKS+0.56%+0.26%confirms
OZK+1.02%+1.05%confirms

Top opportunity screener names cluster in Broken Momentum / Avoid and Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch baskets. OKLO leads with score 93.2 and regime fit 96.9; TAP follows at 94.0. Four of five intraday confirmations are positive, with TAP gaining 1.79% vs basket 1.16%. OZK is the lone breakout-stage name within Neutral / Transition.

3D Summary
SideDimensionBasketReturn
beststyleExtended Overbought Momentum+2.23%
bestsectorEnergy+2.20%
beststyleMomentum Breakout / Leadership+1.35%
worststyleOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-3.97%
worstproductionOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-3.97%
worststyleHigh-Vol Breakdown-2.89%
SpreadMove
Momentum - LowVol-1.12%
HighBeta - LowVol-1.36%
Growth - Value-0.48%
Small - Large-0.06%
EqualWeight - CapWeight-0.60%
Credit+0.01%
Duration-0.27%
Semis - Market-3.30%
Quality - Extended Risk+0.48%

Breadth trend: improving.

DateModeRegimeCompositeTop basketBottom basketSPY D1
2026-07-13wrapChoppy Neutral0.4Smaller-Cap High-Beta BreakoutOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-0.77%
2026-07-14wrapConstructive Rotation0.7Quality / Low-Vol UptrendOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch+0.36%

Over the trailing three days, Extended Overbought Momentum gained 2.23% while Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch declined 3.97%. Sector leadership came from Energy at 2.20%. Spreads compressed: Momentum-LowVol fell 1.12% and HighBeta-LowVol declined 1.36%. Semiconductors underperformed the market by 3.30%. Breadth improved as the regime shifted from Choppy Neutral to Constructive Rotation.

WTD Summary

WTD Summary data is identical to the 3D Summary at this point in the period — see that section above.

Week-to-date, Extended Overbought Momentum leads at 2.23%, while Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch lags at -3.97%. Energy is the top sector at 2.20%. Spreads show momentum and high-beta underperformance versus low-vol, with Momentum-LowVol contracting 1.12% and HighBeta-LowVol down 1.36%. Semis-Market spread compressed 3.30%. Breadth is improving as the regime transitions.

MTD Summary
SideDimensionBasketReturn
beststyleExtended Overbought Momentum+11.00%
bestproductionSmaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout+10.58%
beststyleHigh-Vol Momentum+10.58%
worststyleOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-14.23%
worstproductionOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-14.23%
worstthemeSemiconductors-6.17%
SpreadMove
Momentum - LowVol-8.41%
HighBeta - LowVol-6.48%
Growth - Value-2.48%
Small - Large-2.63%
EqualWeight - CapWeight-0.98%
Credit+1.17%
Duration-2.52%
Semis - Market-11.01%
Quality - Extended Risk-5.55%

Breadth trend: flat.

DateModeRegimeCompositeTop basketBottom basketSPY D1
2026-07-08wrapChoppy Neutral-0.2Oversold / Mean-Reversion WatchExtended Momentum Risk-0.31%
2026-07-09wrapChoppy Neutral0.3Oversold / Mean-Reversion WatchExtended Momentum Risk+0.85%
2026-07-10wrapConstructive Rotation0.6Broken Momentum / AvoidExtended Momentum Risk+0.43%
2026-07-13wrapChoppy Neutral0.4Smaller-Cap High-Beta BreakoutOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-0.77%
2026-07-14wrapConstructive Rotation0.7Quality / Low-Vol UptrendOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch+0.36%

Month-to-date, Extended Overbought Momentum surged 11.0%, with Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout close behind at 10.58%. Conversely, Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch sank 14.23%. Spreads widened sharply: Momentum-LowVol fell 8.41% and HighBeta-LowVol declined 6.48%. Semis-Market collapsed 11.01%. Credit eked out a 1.17% gain. Breadth remains flat amid Choppy Neutral to Constructive Rotation transitions.

Structural View (QTD YTD 1Y 2Y)
BasketQTDYTD1Y2Y
production: Broken Momentum / Avoid+0.12%-15.40%-13.20%+7.39%
production: Extended Momentum Risk+6.01%+16.01%-29.14%-24.05%
production: Neutral / Transition-0.84%+17.22%+31.61%+51.11%
production: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-14.23%-3.86%+27.91%+79.57%
production: Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend+0.46%+1.78%+26.15%+38.62%
production: Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout+10.58%+48.07%n/an/a
production: Thematic Momentum Leadership+1.48%+54.64%+78.88%+107.08%
theme: AI Infrastructure-2.69%+22.11%+39.33%+61.53%
theme: Cloud Software+2.59%+13.82%+17.47%+38.15%
theme: Commodities / Materials-4.17%+11.43%+38.03%+48.27%
theme: Consumer / Retail+0.22%+7.65%+9.32%+22.30%
theme: Crypto / Digital Assets+2.30%+13.29%+26.50%+55.70%
theme: Cybersecurity+0.83%+15.15%+20.22%+50.05%
theme: Defense / Aerospace-6.17%+23.01%+48.96%+97.33%
theme: Energy Transition-1.63%+16.66%+33.89%+45.63%
theme: Financials / Credit+1.78%+13.52%+18.62%+34.20%
theme: Healthcare / Biotech+0.43%+25.43%+71.40%+65.63%
theme: Housing / Real Estate-0.77%+12.04%+14.92%+22.45%
theme: Industrial Automation-3.46%+22.85%+39.78%+56.98%
theme: Macro Rates / Inflation-0.76%+14.69%+24.32%+35.71%
theme: Oil & Gas+0.05%+22.50%+47.12%+48.78%
theme: Semiconductors-6.17%+45.35%+70.30%+78.86%
sector: Communication Services+2.69%-3.28%+15.63%+66.67%
sector: Consumer Discretionary-0.34%+6.41%+9.81%+25.93%
sector: Consumer Staples+0.81%+5.92%+0.35%+7.55%
sector: Energy+4.86%+33.46%+32.20%+34.15%
sector: Financials+3.97%+10.27%+15.87%+51.27%
sector: Health Care+1.12%+26.89%+66.64%+66.17%
sector: Industrials-4.62%+19.10%+33.13%+67.49%
sector: Information Technology-4.33%+37.86%+66.18%+91.75%
sector: Materials-3.39%+13.88%+28.08%+37.98%
sector: Real Estate+1.23%+10.66%+10.83%+20.66%
sector: Utilities-0.34%+6.85%+12.91%+45.20%
size: Large (>=5B)-0.56%+18.24%+32.89%+55.03%
size: Micro Cap $250M-$1B-0.97%+15.59%+38.97%+43.46%
size: Nano Cap <$250M+1.83%+38.78%+9.50%-15.57%
size: Small Cap $1B-$5B-0.28%+20.81%+38.34%+46.36%
style: Base Building / Coiled-0.63%+13.13%+19.97%+34.66%
style: Extended Overbought Momentum+11.00%+38.29%+60.56%+41.66%
style: High-Vol Breakdown-2.76%-20.31%-17.81%-10.43%
style: High-Vol Momentum+10.58%+48.07%n/an/a
style: Low-Vol Uptrend-0.30%+19.84%+28.26%+50.57%
style: Momentum Breakout / Leadership+5.11%+45.06%+64.54%+101.92%
style: Neutral / Transition-2.39%+22.53%+40.74%+60.72%
style: Normal Vol/Trend-0.51%+22.18%+42.66%+70.31%
style: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-14.23%-3.86%+27.91%+79.57%
style: Persistent Uptrend / Compounder+2.13%+23.79%+34.69%+53.11%
style: Weak Downtrend / Avoid Momentum+0.12%-15.40%-13.20%+7.39%

Cycle structure shows 3 sectors in Basing / early-cycle, 1 Trending / mid-cycle, 3 Expansion / late acceleration, and 4 Reset within trend. Consumer Staples leads basing with avg opportunity score 73.3; Financials expansion at 69.24. Basket waves: Broken Momentum / Avoid is 67% accumulation, Thematic Momentum Leadership 52% breakout, and Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch 41% markup. Extended Momentum Risk is entirely breakout-stage but consists of only 3 names.

Chart Pattern and Wave Census
BreakoutsBreakdownsOversold
983225
Setup typeCount
tight_base8
double_top8
donchian_breakdown8
bear_flag8
donchian_breakout8
double_bottom8
head_shoulders8
bull_flag8
gap_up_unfilled3
TickerPatternDirectionScore
PSKYdouble_topshort80.2
RIOTdouble_topshort73.9
FLShead_shouldersshort68.8
FTDRdouble_bottomlong68.2
SMCIhead_shouldersshort63.9
LNCdouble_bottomlong63.3
TMHCtight_baselong62.8
CWENdouble_topshort56.5
CWANdonchian_breakoutlong56.4
RBLXdouble_bottomlong55.8
TickerFrom stageTo stage
RKTaccumulationpullback
BMRNmixedmarkup
BENmixedpullback
VIRTmixedbreakout
YOUmixedpullback
NImixedbreakout
KVUEmixedmarkup
CNPmixedbreakout
ESImixedpullback
PSNmixedaccumulation
KDPmixedmarkup
RRCaccumulationmixed
MGMbreakoutmixed
VNOpullbackmixed
STWDaccumulationmixed

Pattern census counts 98 breakouts against 32 breakdowns, with 25 oversold signals. Setup types evenly distributed at 8 each except 3 gap_up_unfilled. The strongest short setup is PSKY double top scoring 80.23, followed by RIOT at 73.89. On the long side, FTDR double bottom leads at 68.20. Notable wave transitions include VIRT moving to breakout and RKT to pullback.

Tomorrow Setup

SpreadLegsIntradayD1WTDMTD
Momentum - LowVolMTUM − USMV-1.40%-1.40%-1.12%-8.41%
HighBeta - LowVolSPHB − SPLV-0.17%-0.17%-1.36%-6.48%
Growth - ValueIWF − IWD-0.09%-0.09%-0.48%-2.48%
Small - LargeIWM − SPY+0.03%+0.03%-0.06%-2.63%
EqualWeight - CapWeightRSP − SPY-0.62%-0.62%-0.60%-0.98%
CreditHYG − LQD-0.18%-0.18%+0.01%+1.17%
DurationTLT+0.19%+0.19%-0.27%-2.52%
Semis - MarketSMH − SPY-1.99%-1.99%-3.30%-11.01%
Momentum Leadership - Broken MomentumMega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership − Broken Momentum / Avoidn/an/an/an/a
Quality - Extended RiskQuality / Low-Vol Uptrend − Extended Momentum Risk+1.12%+1.12%+0.48%-5.55%

Tomorrow’s setup within Constructive Rotation highlights OKLO (score 93.2, regime fit 96.9) and TAP (94.0, 94.2) as top screener names. Intraday confirmation shows TAP up 1.79% vs basket, CMCSA up 1.12%, SWKS up 0.56%, and OZK up 1.02%; only OKLO failed to confirm. Leadership remains concentrated in Broken Momentum / Avoid and Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch baskets.

Top Single-Stock Setups (4h–1 Week)

#1SYREHealth Care100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 8.4/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 631w +5.0%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$98.95
RSI64
1wk+5.0%
ATR stop−8.9%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=183)
-15%+24%
#2XYZInformation Technology100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.8/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 621w +3.1%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$79.96
RSI62
1wk+3.1%
ATR stop−5.4%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=183)
-15%+24%
#3CROXConsumer Discretionary100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.5/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 611w +5.8%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$131.75
RSI62
1wk+5.8%
ATR stop−5.7%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=183)
-15%+24%
#4TRGPEnergy100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.5/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 631w +3.8%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$284.33
RSI64
1wk+3.8%
ATR stop−4.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=183)
-15%+24%
#5RUSHAConsumer Discretionary100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.2/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 631w +5.2%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$75.86
RSI63
1wk+5.2%
ATR stop−4.1%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=183)
-15%+24%

Long-only opportunity lens: names where the factor basket and the technical state agree over a 4-hour-to-1-week window. Confluence score, not a price target — size to the ATR stop and treat every setup as a probability, not a promise.

Long-only confluence screen: the factor engine's basket and the technical state pointing the same way over a 4-hour-to-1-week window.

Data Quality and Coverage

SourceAs of
intraday_bars2026-07-15T18:45:00-04:00
warehouse_snapshot2026-07-15
proxy_daily2026-07-14
screener_artifact2026-07-14T20:48:11.354598-04:00
grouped_daily2026-07-15
  • Overall coverage: 99.7%
  • Degraded baskets: theme:Healthcare / Biotech
  • Missing archived report days: 2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07
  • Warning: declared production baskets with zero observed members: Mega-Cap Liquid Momentum Leadership, Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation
  • Warning: thin production basket: Extended Momentum Risk n_members=3 (<5); exclude from broad leadership claims
  • Warning: thin production basket: Quality / Low-Vol Uptrend n_members=1 (<5); exclude from broad leadership claims
  • Warning: thin production basket: Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout n_members=1 (<5); exclude from broad leadership claims
  • Report generated at 2026-07-15T19:03:05-04:00; every figure above is computed deterministically from report.json
  • Narration: 7 of 16 sections used the deterministic fallback (panel_sigma_board, closing_performance, what_worked, sector_rotation, themes, size_breadth, volume); all other sections are LLM-narrated
BoltFactors © 2026 · WRAP edition · 2026-07-15 · GitHub · every number is computed deterministically from report.json before narration; ideas pair today's live trigger with a static historical prior.