Premarket · market state
Choppy Neutralheld 1 td · typically ~8 td · ~7 td left · fresh · p(stay) 0.87
1td in — ~7td of typical dwell leftfresh
age 1tdtypical dwell ~8td

SPY +0.40% since prior close; Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch leads (+1.34%), Extended Momentum Risk lags (+0.00%).

Risk-STATE gauge — monotone in forward volatility, not direction. Size to the state; don't chase the label.

Session Snapshot

CAC -0.30mixed
−risk-off0+risk-on
Equitiesbroad index tape · 6/6 adv
+0.43%med
QQQ +0.9%IWM +0.5%VTI +0.5%SPY +0.4%RSP +0.3%DIA +0.3%MDY n/aIJR n/a
Rates & Creditduration + credit spread · 1/3 adv
-0.05%med
HYG +0.1%LQD n/aIEF -0.1%TLT -0.3%
Commodities & FXgold · oil · the dollar · 3/3 adv
+0.21%med
USO +0.3%UUP +0.2%GLD +0.1%
Globalnot in snapshot
No proxy for this band in the current snapshot — data-plumbing follow-up.
SPY+0.4%
QQQ+0.9%
DIA+0.3%
IWM+0.5%
MDYn/a
IJRn/a
RSP+0.3%
VTI+0.5%
XLK+1.1%
XLF+0.1%
XLE+0.1%
XLV+0.1%
XLI+0.9%
XLY+0.1%
XLP+0.0%
XLU-0.1%
XLB-0.0%
XLC-0.1%
XLRE+0.0%
MTUMn/a
VLUE+0.9%
QUALn/a
USMV+0.5%
SPLVn/a
SPHBn/a
IWFn/a
IWDn/a
VUG+0.3%
VTVn/a
SMH+2.1%
XBI+0.5%
ITA+0.7%
KRE-0.1%
XHBn/a
TANn/a
TLT-0.3%
IEF-0.1%
HYG+0.1%
LQDn/a
GLD+0.1%
USO+0.3%
UUP+0.2%

The premarket session shows positive bias with large caps up 0.48% and breadth skewed positive, 356 advancers versus 175 decliners. 65.26% of stocks are above their 50-day moving average, and 68.47% above the 200-day. The broad advance is supported by 89.36% of baskets in positive territory. This occurs under a Choppy Neutral regime, which combined with a fresh posture, suggests the market has entered a phase where short-term price swings lack persistent directional conviction.

SPY+0.40%gap n/a · open n/a
Best factor+1.34%Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch
Worst factor+0.00%Extended Momentum Risk
Breadth89%baskets +ve · A/D 356/175

Actionable Trading Ideas

High convictionregime:04 · n=506

Size the book to Choppy Neutral, don't chase it — the label reads forward volatility, not direction (persists ~8 td, p_stay 0.87).

Regime context — size to the state: Choppy Neutral
Choppy Neutral (composite 0.27, confidence 0.87)
InvalidationInvalidated on a confirmed regime transition (the two-run confirmation rule).
why / how
EvidenceThis regime historically persists ~8 td, p_stay 0.87. Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — Distribution Risk historically preceded the BEST fwd-20d returns (+2.54%).
ExpressSet gross/net to the volatility state, not the label's tone; keep position sizing modest here.
FramingA risk-state gauge: size positions, do not chase direction off the label.
Low convictionwarehouse:09

Trade MARA two-sided, not as a squeeze long — crowded short float carries ~2.5x baseline odds of a big move both ways.

Event risk — crowded short float
MARA short float 28.0% (13 names >=20%)
InvalidationNot a trade until a catalyst and confirmation align.
why / how
EvidenceHigh short-float names carry ~2.5x baseline odds of a +15% 10-day move (16.9% vs 6.8%), in BOTH directions.
ExpressTreat MARA, PATH, HIMS, TNGX as elevated-variance event risk; size for a two-sided move, not a squeeze long.
FramingEvent risk, not a buy signal — the distribution is fat-tailed both ways.

Intraday Factor Moves

Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch+1.40%
48 names · 98% cov
move vs all baskets today
+0%med +0%+1%
+1.40%100ᵗʰ pctile
ID+1.4%
1D+1.3%
3D-6.2%
1W-8.0%
MTD-19.3%
1M-22.9%
3M-15.0%
YTD+8.3%
1Y+41.4%
2Y+124.9%
Neutral / Transition+0.63%
500 names · 100% cov
move vs all baskets today
+0%med +0%+1%
+0.63%89ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.6%
1D+0.4%
3D-0.1%
1W-0.0%
MTD-1.8%
1M+1.3%
3M+5.9%
YTD+20.2%
1Y+36.5%
2Y+48.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoid+0.34%
140 names · 100% cov
move vs all baskets today
+0%med +0%+1%
+0.34%67ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.3%
1D+0.2%
3D-0.4%
1W-0.2%
MTD-0.5%
1M-2.9%
3M-17.3%
YTD-15.5%
1Y-13.1%
2Y+8.7%
Unclassified / Insufficient Data thin — n<10+0.57%
8 names · 100% cov
move vs all baskets today
+0%med +0%+1%
+0.57%78ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.6%
1D+0.2%
3D-0.3%
1W-1.5%
MTD-4.1%
1M+3.2%
3M+12.8%
YTD+36.4%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout+0.09%
38 names · 100% cov
move vs all baskets today
+0%med +0%+1%
+0.09%56ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.1%
1D+0.1%
3D+0.2%
1W+2.4%
MTD+3.7%
1M+17.9%
3M+45.6%
YTD+73.2%
1Y+119.1%
2Y+121.9%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation+0.03%
37 names · 100% cov
move vs all baskets today
+0%med +0%+1%
+0.03%33ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.0%
1D+0.0%
3D+1.7%
1W+1.8%
MTD+5.5%
1M+11.6%
3M+27.0%
YTD+27.8%
1Y+36.0%
2Y+55.3%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend+0.05%
116 names · 99% cov
move vs all baskets today
+0%med +0%+1%
+0.05%44ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.1%
1D+0.0%
3D+1.8%
1W+1.4%
MTD+3.2%
1M+6.3%
3M+7.0%
YTD+13.9%
1Y+16.6%
2Y+22.7%
Thematic Momentum Leadership+0.02%
91 names · 100% cov
move vs all baskets today
+0%med +0%+1%
+0.02%22ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.0%
1D+0.0%
3D+1.0%
1W+1.7%
MTD+3.9%
1M+10.4%
3M+23.2%
YTD+32.2%
1Y+44.9%
2Y+67.4%
Extended Momentum Risk+0.00%
26 names · 100% cov
move vs all baskets today
+0%med +0%+1%
+0.00%11ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.0%
1D+0.0%
3D+4.6%
1W+5.4%
MTD+15.7%
1M+25.4%
3M+25.6%
YTD+40.1%
1Y+48.9%
2Y+64.7%

Factor returns this morning are led by Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch at +1.4%, with High-Vol Breakdown up 0.83% and Base Building / Coiled advancing 0.40%. Conversely, Momentum Breakout / Leadership is the weakest factor, down -0.13%, while Extended Overbought Momentum gains only 0.18%. The divergence between mean-reversion and momentum styles is stark, as neutral and normal trend baskets also rally around 0.6-0.7%. The factor board points to a risk-on but rotation-heavy session, favoring reversion trades over trend continuation.

Sector Rotation

Information Technology+0.99%
Industrials+0.53%
Financials+0.52%
Consumer Discretionary+0.45%
Materials+0.39%
Utilities+0.24%
Energy+0.22%
Health Care+0.22%
Communication Services+0.06%
Real Estate+0.05%
Consumer Staples+0.03%

Sector performance in the premarket is led by Information Technology, surging 0.99%, followed by Energy at 0.22% and Health Care at 0.22%. At the bottom, Consumer Staples ekes out just 0.03%, and Real Estate only 0.02%. The leadership flip signal is active, and the highly negative Spearman correlation between daily and weekly returns (-0.76) confirms rapid rotation. IT’s breadth is strong at 61.72% advancing, yet its weekly return remains -2.03%, highlighting that today’s bounce may be short-lived within an ongoing sector churn.

Themes and Keyword Baskets

Semiconductors+0.7%1D
188 names · 90% cov
ID+1.3%WTD+0.7%MTD-10.1%YTD+49.1%
Crypto / Digital Assets+0.5%1D
150 names · 69% covaggregate only
ID+1.0%WTD+0.5%MTD+1.4%YTD+12.9%
AI Infrastructure+0.3%1D
838 names · 80% covaggregate only
ID+0.7%WTD+0.3%MTD-3.8%YTD+20.5%
Defense / Aerospace+0.3%1D
202 names · 79% cov
ID+0.8%WTD+0.3%MTD-8.9%YTD+23.9%
Energy Transition+0.2%1D
240 names · 82% cov
ID+0.7%WTD+0.2%MTD-6.2%YTD+20.8%
Commodities / Materials+0.2%1D
161 names · 75% cov
ID+0.6%WTD+0.2%MTD-6.0%YTD+8.0%
Macro Rates / Inflation+0.2%1D
506 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+0.6%WTD+0.2%MTD-0.6%YTD+15.5%
Industrial Automation+0.2%1D
494 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+0.6%WTD+0.2%MTD-3.8%YTD+21.9%
Oil & Gas+0.1%1D
269 names · 85% cov
ID+0.3%WTD+0.1%MTD+0.2%YTD+19.6%
Consumer / Retail+0.1%1D
467 names · 75% cov
ID+0.2%WTD+0.1%MTD+1.1%YTD+9.1%
Healthcare / Biotech degraded+0.1%1D
673 names · 59% cov
ID+0.4%WTD+0.1%MTD+0.5%YTD+24.3%
Financials / Credit+0.1%1D
646 names · 63% cov
ID+0.3%WTD+0.1%MTD+2.5%YTD+13.7%
Housing / Real Estate+0.1%1D
439 names · 71% cov
ID+0.3%WTD+0.1%MTD-0.0%YTD+12.2%
Cloud Software+0.1%1D
258 names · 79% covaggregate only
ID+0.2%WTD+0.1%MTD+2.6%YTD+14.0%
Cybersecurity+0.0%1D
94 names · 70% covaggregate only
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD+2.4%YTD+14.7%

Theme performance premarket is dominated by Semiconductors, jumping 1.3%, with Crypto / Digital Assets close behind at 0.97%. AI Infrastructure adds 0.72%, while Defense / Aerospace rises 0.77%. In contrast, Cybersecurity is nearly flat at 0.02%, and Cloud Software trails at 0.18%. Breadth within Semiconductors is robust at 83.33% advancing, underscoring broad participation in the mean-reversion bounce. However, the sector remains down -10.05% month-to-date, suggesting today’s strength is a sharp counter-trend move within a larger drawdown context.

Sigma Board
−3σ0+3σ
% above SMA200breadth · 68.47 · 60d · n=60+1.45σ
Momentum - LowVol w1spread · -3.21% · 252d · n=252-1.23σ
HighBeta - LowVol w1spread · -3.47% · 252d · n=252-1.13σ
Adv/Dec ratiobreadth · 2.03 · 60d · n=60+1.08σ
Semis - Market w1spread · -2.62% · 252d · n=252-1.07σ
% above SMA50breadth · 65.26 · 60d · n=60+0.98σ
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch d1basket · +1.34% · 60d · n=33+0.97σ
Growth - Value w1spread · -1.98% · 252d · n=252-0.96σ

The style panel’s sigma moves reveal extreme dispersion: the Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch basket surges 1.4% intraday, while Momentum Breakout / Leadership dips -0.13%. High-Vol Breakdown names also rally 0.83%, indicating sharp reversals in distressed names. The premarket gap in these factor buckets underscores a rapid rotation away from recent momentum towards oversold and broken-down stocks, with low volatility and persistent uptrend styles showing only modest gains. This pattern often accompanies heightened cross-sectional volatility as mean-reversion forces dominate.

Factor × Sector Map
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn5
Financials
+2.3%1D
ID+2.3%WTD+2.3%MTD-27.4%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn19
Information Technology
+1.9%1D
ID+1.9%WTD+1.9%MTD-22.3%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn8
Industrials
+1.0%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+1.0%MTD-19.6%
Neutral / Transitionn96
Information Technology
+1.0%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+1.0%MTD-7.2%
Unclassified / Insufficient Datan3
Information Technology
+0.6%1D
ID+0.9%WTD+0.6%MTD-4.5%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn10
Financials
+0.5%1D
ID+0.9%WTD+0.5%MTD+6.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn9
Materials
+0.5%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.5%MTD+0.0%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn7
Materials
+0.5%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+0.5%MTD-12.7%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn4
Industrials
+0.4%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.4%MTD-4.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn26
Industrials
+0.4%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.4%MTD-5.8%
Neutral / Transitionn54
Financials
+0.4%1D
ID+0.9%WTD+0.4%MTD+4.0%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn25
Consumer Discretionary
+0.4%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.4%MTD-1.9%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Communication Services
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.3%MTD-10.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn8
Utilities
+0.3%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+0.3%MTD-2.4%
Neutral / Transitionn64
Consumer Discretionary
+0.3%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+0.3%MTD-0.2%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn5
Industrials
+0.2%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+0.2%MTD+7.7%
Neutral / Transitionn112
Industrials
+0.2%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+0.2%MTD-5.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Health Care
+0.2%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.2%MTD-18.4%
Extended Momentum Riskn4
Financials
+0.2%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.2%MTD+20.0%
Neutral / Transitionn51
Health Care
+0.2%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+0.2%MTD+1.9%
Neutral / Transitionn19
Materials
+0.2%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.2%MTD-3.7%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn8
Health Care
+0.2%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+0.2%MTD+2.2%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn18
Industrials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+0.1%MTD+2.6%
Neutral / Transitionn23
Energy
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.1%MTD+4.8%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn5
Consumer Discretionary
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+0.1%MTD+10.3%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn20
Health Care
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+0.1%MTD+2.2%
Extended Momentum Riskn6
Energy
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.1%MTD+25.6%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn10
Financials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.1%MTD+6.8%
Neutral / Transitionn18
Utilities
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+0.1%MTD-1.5%
Neutral / Transitionn16
Real Estate
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+0.1%MTD+2.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn18
Information Technology
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.1%MTD+1.5%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn8
Real Estate
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.1%MTD+2.5%
Neutral / Transitionn26
Consumer Staples
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.1%MTD+2.0%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn13
Communication Services
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.1%MTD+2.1%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn9
Consumer Staples
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.1%MTD+1.5%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn25
Health Care
+0.0%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.0%MTD+1.7%
Extended Momentum Riskn4
Real Estate
+0.0%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.0%MTD+7.8%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn31
Financials
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD+5.8%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn6
Communication Services
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD+4.7%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn3
Consumer Discretionary
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD+1.9%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn26
Real Estate
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD+3.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn5
Energy
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD-3.0%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn32
Financials
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD+3.5%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn5
Health Care
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD+3.8%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn3
Information Technology
+0.0%1D
ID·WTD+0.0%MTD-1.2%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn4
Consumer Staples
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD-0.0%MTD+3.6%
Neutral / Transitionn21
Communication Services
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD-0.0%MTD+2.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn8
Consumer Discretionary
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD-0.0%MTD+4.9%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn16
Utilities
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD-0.0%MTD+2.8%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn4
Consumer Staples
-0.0%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-0.0%MTD+2.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn9
Health Care
-0.1%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-0.1%MTD+0.3%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn10
Real Estate
-0.1%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-0.1%MTD+5.5%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn8
Information Technology
-0.1%1D
ID-0.2%WTD-0.1%MTD+4.4%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn8
Information Technology
-0.2%1D
ID-0.5%WTD-0.2%MTD+5.3%
Extended Momentum Riskn4
Health Care
-0.2%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-0.2%MTD+6.7%
Extended Momentum Riskn4
Information Technology
-0.2%1D
ID-0.5%WTD-0.2%MTD+16.6%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn7
Information Technology
-0.4%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-0.4%MTD+6.8%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn3
Consumer Staples
-0.4%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-0.4%MTD+3.3%
Where each factor basket is working by sector — sorted by 1-day equal-weight return, ≥3 names per cell.
Regime Assessment
trend+0.40
breadth+1.40
volatility+1.50
rotation-1.60
size+0.35
style-1.50
p(stay 1d)0.87
p(persist 5d)0.55
expected dwell7.7 td
samplen=506

Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — size positions to the risk state, don't chase the label. Transition is empirical; a label change needs two-run confirmation.

The regime reads Choppy Neutral with 0.87 confidence and a composite of 0.2725, started on July 17. Breadth scores 1.4 with 65.26% above the 50-day and 68.47% above the 200-day, while the volatility component at 1.5 reflects realized volatility at the 39th percentile of its two-year range. Rotation presents a -1.6 reading, driven by a -0.76 cross-period rank correlation; trend is muted at 0.4 with SPY 7.12% above its 200-day moving average. This configuration historically precedes elevated volatility without directional bias.

Size and Breadth

Size bucketNIntradayD1WTDBreadth
Large (>=5B)1004+0.48%+0.28%+0.28%59.5% adv
Micro Cap $250M-$1B201n/a+0.00%+0.00%0.0% adv
Nano Cap <$250M15n/a+0.00%+0.00%0.0% adv
Small Cap $1B-$5B807n/a+0.00%+0.00%0.0% adv
% > SMA50% > SMA200AdvancersDecliners% Baskets Positive
65.3%68.5%35617589.4%

Broad participation remains healthy but not stretched: 65.26% of members sit above the 50-day moving average and 68.47% above the 200-day, with advancing issues outpacing decliners 356 to 175 and 89.36% of baskets positive. Large-cap stocks gained 0.28% week-to-date but are down 0.42% month-to-date, while small caps ($1B–$5B) are flat week-to-date and nearly unchanged at -0.08% month-to-date. Micro-cap names slid 1.17% on the week, and nano caps bucked the trend with a 4.78% weekly pop. The divergence across size segments underscores a fragile yet broad foundation.

Volume and Participation

Premarket volume conditions are structurally thin; no basket participation signals or anomalies appear in the data. Relative volume is suppressed below 1% of a typical session’s prints by this hour, rendering volume-based signals meaningless. The absence of flagged activity is consistent with the pre-open lull and does not indicate a lack of conviction. We await intraday volume development for meaningful turnover analysis.

Cross-Asset Confirmation

CAC -0.30 — mixed (positive = risk-supportive)

Signal5dPoints
Credit (HYG−LQD)-0.17%-0.30
Risk vs defensives-0.43%+0.00
Dollar (−UUP)+0.21%+0.00
Curve (IEF/TLT)+0.16%+0.00

Duration-in-disguise — 63d TLT beta of style spreads

SpreadTLT ββ · SPY-ctrlβ%ileDuration read
Momentum - LowVol1.340.2299%duration-driven (current, unstable)
Growth - Value0.23-0.2089%factor-driven (current, unstable)
HighBeta - LowVol1.490.03100%duration-driven (current, unstable)
Small - Large0.630.6998%duration-driven (persistent)

Opportunity Watchlist

The screener artifact and intraday confirmation are unavailable; no top setups are flagged in this premarket run. Source unavailability precludes systematic opportunity identification. We defer to intraday and post-close screens for actionable entry points.

Multi-Horizon Context
BasketD3WTDMTDQTDYTD
production: Broken Momentum / Avoid-0.44%+0.24%-0.52%-0.52%-15.46%
production: Extended Momentum Risk+4.59%+0.00%+15.69%+15.69%+40.12%
production: Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation+1.68%+0.03%+5.49%+5.49%+27.80%
production: Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend+1.83%+0.02%+3.21%+3.21%+13.87%
production: Neutral / Transition-0.15%+0.36%-1.75%-1.75%+20.23%
production: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-6.25%+1.34%-19.34%-19.34%+8.34%
production: Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout+0.20%+0.06%+3.73%+3.73%+73.16%
production: Thematic Momentum Leadership+0.96%+0.01%+3.93%+3.93%+32.19%
production: Unclassified / Insufficient Data-0.28%+0.21%-4.07%-4.07%+36.44%
theme: AI Infrastructure-1.45%+0.28%-3.80%-3.80%+20.46%
theme: Cloud Software-0.29%+0.07%+2.61%+2.61%+14.04%
theme: Commodities / Materials-1.94%+0.19%-5.98%-5.98%+7.96%
theme: Consumer / Retail+0.80%+0.10%+1.11%+1.11%+9.07%
theme: Crypto / Digital Assets-1.21%+0.47%+1.35%+1.35%+12.94%
theme: Cybersecurity+0.08%+0.01%+2.39%+2.39%+14.65%
theme: Defense / Aerospace-2.21%+0.26%-8.88%-8.88%+23.89%
theme: Energy Transition-1.55%+0.25%-6.15%-6.15%+20.84%
theme: Financials / Credit+0.21%+0.08%+2.55%+2.55%+13.68%
theme: Healthcare / Biotech-0.73%+0.09%+0.45%+0.45%+24.31%
theme: Housing / Real Estate+0.67%+0.08%-0.00%-0.00%+12.21%
theme: Industrial Automation-0.63%+0.18%-3.80%-3.80%+21.86%
theme: Macro Rates / Inflation+0.17%+0.19%-0.62%-0.62%+15.51%
theme: Oil & Gas+0.22%+0.14%+0.22%+0.22%+19.60%
theme: Semiconductors-2.99%+0.65%-10.05%-10.05%+49.07%
sector: Communication Services-0.88%+0.04%+1.62%+1.62%-4.08%
sector: Consumer Discretionary+0.71%+0.25%+0.37%+0.37%+7.05%
sector: Consumer Staples+1.58%+0.02%+2.49%+2.49%+7.69%
sector: Energy+2.12%+0.17%+7.06%+7.06%+36.48%
sector: Financials+0.01%+0.28%+4.02%+4.02%+9.85%
sector: Health Care+0.45%+0.11%+1.61%+1.61%+27.42%
sector: Industrials-0.32%+0.28%-4.82%-4.82%+18.44%
sector: Information Technology-1.42%+0.77%-5.48%-5.48%+34.59%
sector: Materials-1.39%+0.28%-4.69%-4.69%+12.45%
sector: Real Estate+2.34%+0.02%+3.62%+3.62%+13.24%
sector: Utilities-0.21%+0.13%-0.57%-0.57%+6.72%
size: Large (>=5B)+0.05%+0.28%-0.42%-0.42%+17.92%
size: Micro Cap $250M-$1B-1.69%+0.00%-1.84%-1.84%+13.57%
size: Nano Cap <$250M-1.89%+0.00%+22.97%+22.97%+36.31%
size: Small Cap $1B-$5B+0.00%+0.00%-0.08%-0.08%+20.75%
style: Base Building / Coiled+0.19%+0.23%-0.72%-0.72%+8.90%
style: Extended Overbought Momentum+4.31%+0.09%+20.20%+20.20%+53.50%
style: High-Vol Breakdown-3.33%+0.75%-9.14%-9.14%-17.89%
style: High-Vol Momentum+0.52%+0.05%+5.14%+5.14%+81.19%
style: Low-Vol Uptrend+1.66%+0.04%+3.30%+3.30%+16.65%
style: Momentum Breakout / Leadership+1.63%-0.07%+7.65%+7.65%+42.62%
style: Neutral / Transition-0.19%+0.37%-1.82%-1.82%+20.54%
style: Normal Vol/Trend-0.25%+0.40%-1.08%-1.08%+25.86%
style: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-6.25%+1.34%-19.34%-19.34%+8.34%
style: Persistent Uptrend / Compounder+1.63%+0.03%+3.19%+3.19%+23.76%
style: Weak Downtrend / Avoid Momentum-0.44%+0.24%-0.52%-0.52%-15.46%

Large-cap stocks are up 0.28% week-to-date but down 0.42% month-to-date, while the one-month return reaches 2.60% and the three-month stands at 6.22%. Small-cap names are flat on the week and off merely 0.08% month-to-date, with a 6.03% one-month and 9.27% three-month gain. The year-to-date spread favors large caps at 17.92% versus small caps at 20.75%. Breadth holds 68.47% above the 200-day, signaling intact medium-term trends despite near-term chop. The multi-horizon picture is one of short-term stalling within still-positive intermediate trajectories.

Top Single-Stock Setups (4h–1 Week)

#1OKEEnergy100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.6/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 611w +4.0%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$93.52
RSI61
1wk+4.0%
ATR stop−3.8%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=91)
-7%+8%
#2HXLIndustrials98
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.3/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 651w +4.7%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$103.81
RSI65
1wk+4.7%
ATR stop−4.5%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=91)
-7%+8%
#3SYREHealth Care98
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout · factor score 8.1/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 601w +2.5%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$100.23
RSI61
1wk+2.5%
ATR stop−9.8%
1-week return vs Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout basket (n=38)
-9%+13%
#4MUSAConsumer Discretionary98
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout · factor score 7.5/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 631w +4.8%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$618.57
RSI63
1wk+4.8%
ATR stop−5.3%
1-week return vs Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout basket (n=38)
-9%+13%
#5TRGPEnergy97
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation · factor score 8.2/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 611w +3.5%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$282.91
RSI61
1wk+3.5%
ATR stop−4.0%
1-week return vs Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation basket (n=37)
-2%+10%

Long-only opportunity lens: names where the factor basket and the technical state agree over a 4-hour-to-1-week window. Confluence score, not a price target — size to the ATR stop and treat every setup as a probability, not a promise.

Long-only confluence screen: the factor engine's basket and the technical state pointing the same way over a 4-hour-to-1-week window.

Data Quality and Coverage

SourceAs of
intraday_bars2026-07-20T07:00:00-04:00
warehouse_snapshot2026-07-20
proxy_daily2026-07-17
screener_artifactunavailable
grouped_dailyunavailable
  • Overall coverage: 59.6%
  • Degraded baskets: theme:Healthcare / Biotech
  • Missing archived report days: 2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07
  • Warning: premarket rvol suppressed: <1% of a day's volume prints by 07:00 ET, so relative volume is structurally meaningless before the open
  • Warning: screener artifact unavailable or stale
  • Warning: thin production basket: Unclassified / Insufficient Data n_members=8 (<10); exclude from broad leadership claims
  • Report generated at 2026-07-20T09:06:06-04:00; every figure above is computed deterministically from report.json
BoltFactors © 2026 · PREMARKET edition · 2026-07-20 · GitHub · every number is computed deterministically from report.json before narration; ideas pair today's live trigger with a static historical prior.