Morning · market state
Choppy Neutralheld 2 td · typically ~8 td · ~6 td left · fresh · p(stay) 0.87
2td in — ~6td of typical dwell leftfresh
age 2tdtypical dwell ~8td

SPY +0.32% since prior close; Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch leads (+1.55%), Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend lags (-0.60%).

Risk-STATE gauge — monotone in forward volatility, not direction. Size to the state; don't chase the label.

Session Snapshot

CAC +0.15mixed
−risk-off0+risk-on
Equitiesbroad index tape · 7/8 adv
+0.25%med
QQQ +1.1%VTI +0.3%SPY +0.3%IWM +0.3%DIA +0.2%IJR +0.2%MDY +0.2%RSP -0.1%
Rates & Creditduration + credit spread · 0/4 adv
-0.30%med
HYG -0.0%IEF -0.3%LQD -0.3%TLT -0.5%
Commodities & FXgold · oil · the dollar · 3/3 adv
+1.01%med
USO +2.7%GLD +1.0%UUP +0.2%
Globalnot in snapshot
No proxy for this band in the current snapshot — data-plumbing follow-up.
SPY+0.3%rvol 1.1
QQQ+1.1%rvol 1.5
DIA+0.2%rvol 1.5
IWM+0.3%rvol 1.3
MDY+0.2%rvol 0.8
IJR+0.2%rvol 1.2
RSP-0.1%rvol 2.1
VTI+0.3%rvol 1.2
XLK+1.9%rvol 1.2
XLF-0.1%rvol 1.3
XLE+0.6%rvol 1.5
XLV-0.4%rvol 1.4
XLI-0.0%rvol 1.2
XLY-0.1%rvol 1.4
XLP-0.8%rvol 1.1
XLU-0.4%rvol 1.4
XLB-0.1%rvol 1.4
XLC-0.5%rvol 0.9
XLRE-0.2%rvol 2.3
MTUM+2.5%rvol 0.8
VLUE+1.8%rvol 0.1
QUAL+0.3%rvol 0.6
USMV-0.2%rvol 0.6
SPLV-0.6%rvol 1.1
SPHB+2.0%rvol 0.9
IWF+0.9%rvol 0.4
IWD-0.3%rvol 0.6
VUG+0.5%rvol 0.9
VTV+0.1%rvol 0.7
SMH+3.1%rvol 1.1
XBI+0.8%rvol 1.8
ITA-0.5%rvol 1.1
KRE-0.7%rvol 3.1
XHB-0.8%rvol 0.4
TAN+1.1%rvol 0.5
TLT-0.5%rvol 1.3
IEF-0.3%rvol 0.8
HYG-0.0%rvol 0.4
LQD-0.3%rvol 0.6
GLD+1.0%rvol 1.2
USO+2.7%rvol 2.6
UUP+0.2%rvol 0.6

The composite regime indicator reads 0.1875, maintaining the Choppy Neutral classification with 87% confidence. The reading is two days fresh with an expected dwell of 7.7 days, signaling persistent but non-directional volatility ahead. Breadth remains supportive at 0.70, but trend is weak at 0.25, and rotation noise is elevated at -1.35, reflecting leadership churn.

SPY+0.32%gap +0.57% · open -0.24%
Best factor+1.55%Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch
Worst factor-0.60%Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend
Breadth53%baskets +ve · A/D 420/578

Actionable Trading Ideas

High convictionregime:04 · n=506

Size the book to Choppy Neutral, don't chase it — the label reads forward volatility, not direction (persists ~8 td, p_stay 0.87).

Regime context — size to the state: Choppy Neutral
Choppy Neutral (composite 0.19, confidence 0.87)
InvalidationInvalidated on a confirmed regime transition (the two-run confirmation rule).
why / how
EvidenceThis regime historically persists ~8 td, p_stay 0.87. Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — Distribution Risk historically preceded the BEST fwd-20d returns (+2.54%).
ExpressSet gross/net to the volatility state, not the label's tone; keep position sizing modest here.
FramingA risk-state gauge: size positions, do not chase direction off the label.
Low convictiongap:01 · n=74435

Fade DHR's down-gap into the close — down-gaps ≥1% have bounced +13bps (n=74,435, 51.6% up); tiny edge, tight risk.

Gap fade — down-gap bounce into the close
DHR gapped -16.05% at the open
InvalidationInvalidated if the gap keeps trending down through 10:30 on expanding volume.
why / how
EvidenceDown-gaps >=1% have bounced +13-14bps from 10:00 into the close (n=74,435, t=14.3, 51.6% up); strongest faders DIA/XLE/XLI/KRE/MDY/SPY.
ExpressFade intraday weakness in DHR, EFX, MSCI, RGEN, NOC from ~10:00 ET toward the close.
FramingA small positive-expectancy mean-reversion, not a conviction long — tiny edge, tight risk.
Low convictionwarehouse:09

Trade MARA two-sided, not as a squeeze long — crowded short float carries ~2.5x baseline odds of a big move both ways.

Event risk — crowded short float
MARA short float 28.0% (13 names >=20%)
InvalidationNot a trade until a catalyst and confirmation align.
why / how
EvidenceHigh short-float names carry ~2.5x baseline odds of a +15% 10-day move (16.9% vs 6.8%), in BOTH directions.
ExpressTreat MARA, PATH, HIMS, TNGX as elevated-variance event risk; size for a two-sided move, not a squeeze long.
FramingEvent risk, not a buy signal — the distribution is fat-tailed both ways.

Intraday Factor Moves

Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch+1.55%
47 names · 98% cov · rvol 1.07
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+2%
+1.55%100ᵗʰ pctile
ID+1.6%
1D+1.6%
3D-1.9%
1W-7.6%
MTD-18.1%
1M-22.7%
3M-18.1%
YTD+2.4%
1Y+28.4%
2Y+118.3%
Unclassified / Insufficient Data thin — n<10+1.27%
8 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.48
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+2%
+1.27%89ᵗʰ pctile
ID+1.3%
1D+1.3%
3D+0.4%
1W-1.0%
MTD-3.7%
1M+0.8%
3M+10.4%
YTD+36.3%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout+0.51%
35 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.50
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+2%
+0.51%78ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.5%
1D+0.5%
3D+1.0%
1W-0.7%
MTD+4.3%
1M+14.5%
3M+47.5%
YTD+74.3%
1Y+121.7%
2Y+129.8%
Neutral / Transition+0.25%
520 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.52
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+2%
+0.25%67ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.2%
1D+0.2%
3D-1.0%
1W-1.1%
MTD-2.6%
1M-0.5%
3M+5.0%
YTD+21.6%
1Y+39.5%
2Y+55.9%
Extended Momentum Risk+0.07%
24 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.82
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+2%
+0.07%56ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.1%
1D+0.1%
3D+2.4%
1W+5.7%
MTD+15.7%
1M+24.7%
3M+25.0%
YTD+42.9%
1Y+48.3%
2Y+60.7%
Thematic Momentum Leadership+0.00%
84 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.45
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+2%
+0.00%44ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.0%
1D+0.0%
3D-0.7%
1W+1.2%
MTD+5.0%
1M+10.5%
3M+22.4%
YTD+28.4%
1Y+39.0%
2Y+49.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoid-0.17%
152 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.59
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+2%
-0.17%33ᵗʰ pctile
ID-0.2%
1D-0.2%
3D-2.4%
1W-1.3%
MTD-2.4%
1M-4.3%
3M-17.0%
YTD-16.3%
1Y-13.1%
2Y+5.7%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation-0.50%
30 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.75
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+2%
-0.50%22ᵗʰ pctile
ID-0.5%
1D-0.5%
3D-0.9%
1W+0.4%
MTD+5.9%
1M+11.6%
3M+28.0%
YTD+27.7%
1Y+29.9%
2Y+57.1%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend-0.61%
104 names · 99% cov · rvol 0.41
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+2%
-0.61%11ᵗʰ pctile
ID-0.6%
1D-0.6%
3D-1.6%
1W+0.5%
MTD+2.0%
1M+5.4%
3M+5.8%
YTD+13.1%
1Y+15.6%
2Y+24.4%

Style factors over the trailing week show aggressive rotation out of momentum and high-beta: momentum versus low-volatility fell 2.39%, high-beta versus low-volatility dropped 2.60%, and growth underperformed value by 2.13%. Credit factors bucked the trend with a modest 0.33% gain. The one-day versus one-week sector rank correlation of -0.43 confirms sharp leadership reversals, while the week-to-date versus month-to-date correlation of zero indicates no persistent follow-through.

Sector Rotation

Information Technology+1.27%
Energy+0.61%
Materials+0.37%
Health Care+0.13%
Industrials-0.01%
Financials-0.06%
Real Estate-0.22%
Utilities-0.30%
Consumer Discretionary-0.38%
Communication Services-0.59%
Consumer Staples-0.75%

Information Technology leads with an intraday gain of 1.27% and is up 1.52% week-to-date, while Energy extends its recent strength, adding 0.61% intraday with 72.5% of members advancing. Consumer Staples lags sharply, down 0.75% intraday and 1.06% week-to-date, and Communication Services slips 0.59% on the day. Breadth is narrowest in Utilities and Staples, with just 15.9% and 14.9% of members positive, respectively.

Themes and Keyword Baskets

Semiconductors+1.2%1D
188 names · 90% cov
ID+1.9%WTD+0.9%MTD-10.0%YTD+49.6%
Energy Transition+0.4%1D
240 names · 82% cov
ID+0.7%WTD-0.2%MTD-6.7%YTD+20.6%
Crypto / Digital Assets+0.3%1D
150 names · 69% covaggregate only
ID+0.4%WTD+0.7%MTD+1.3%YTD+13.0%
Oil & Gas+0.3%1D
269 names · 85% cov
ID+0.4%WTD-0.1%MTD+0.0%YTD+19.5%
AI Infrastructure+0.2%1D
838 names · 80% covaggregate only
ID+0.4%WTD-0.1%MTD-4.3%YTD+20.1%
Commodities / Materials+0.2%1D
161 names · 75% cov
ID+0.5%WTD-0.8%MTD-7.0%YTD+7.0%
Industrial Automation+0.2%1D
494 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+0.4%WTD-0.5%MTD-4.5%YTD+21.2%
Healthcare / Biotech degraded+0.1%1D
673 names · 59% cov
ID+0.3%WTD-1.6%MTD-1.3%YTD+22.2%
Defense / Aerospace+0.1%1D
202 names · 79% cov
ID+0.2%WTD-0.6%MTD-9.7%YTD+22.9%
Macro Rates / Inflation+0.1%1D
506 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+0.2%WTD-0.7%MTD-1.5%YTD+14.7%
Financials / Credit+0.0%1D
646 names · 63% cov
ID+0.1%WTD-0.8%MTD+1.6%YTD+12.8%
Cloud Software+0.0%1D
258 names · 79% covaggregate only
ID+0.0%WTD-0.3%MTD+2.2%YTD+13.6%
Consumer / Retail-0.2%1D
467 names · 75% cov
ID-0.4%WTD-0.8%MTD+0.2%YTD+8.1%
Housing / Real Estate-0.2%1D
439 names · 71% cov
ID-0.4%WTD-1.2%MTD-1.2%YTD+11.0%
Cybersecurity-0.3%1D
94 names · 70% covaggregate only
ID-0.5%WTD-0.5%MTD+1.8%YTD+14.0%

Semiconductors surge 1.86% intraday on heavy relative volume of 0.80, leading all themes, and are up 0.87% week-to-date despite a 9.98% month-to-date decline. Energy Transition follows with a 0.74% gain. Cybersecurity is the weakest theme, falling 0.54% intraday, while Consumer/Retail and Housing/Real Estate both decline over 0.4%. AI Infrastructure manages a 0.42% advance, though breadth is mixed at 45.8% of members positive.

Sigma Board
−3σ0+3σ
Momentum - LowVol d1spread · +2.71% · 252d · n=252+1.72σ
Semis - Market d1spread · +2.80% · 252d · n=252+1.45σ
Growth - Value d1spread · +1.18% · 252d · n=252+1.39σ
HighBeta - LowVol d1spread · +2.60% · 252d · n=252+1.37σ
Credit d1spread · +0.27% · 60d · n=60+1.27σ
Semis - Market w1spread · -3.03% · 252d · n=252-1.18σ
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch d1basket · +1.55% · 60d · n=34+1.15σ
Growth - Value w1spread · -2.13% · 252d · n=252-1.03σ

Realized volatility sits at the 35.4th percentile of its two-year range, with the true range at 53.2% of ATR20 and intraday range registering 31% of the 20-day average. The Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch basket shows the highest median relative volume at 1.07, with 26.1% of members above 1.5x rvol, while Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend exhibits a quiet 0.41 median rvol and only 4.9% elevated. Distribution-day signals appear in DHR and EFX, both flagged with extreme volume.

Factor × Sector Map
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn18
Information Technology
+2.7%1D
ID+2.7%WTD+2.7%MTD-21.3%
Unclassified / Insufficient Datan3
Information Technology
+1.9%1D
ID+1.9%WTD+4.0%MTD-1.0%
Neutral / Transitionn102
Information Technology
+1.7%1D
ID+1.7%WTD+2.1%MTD-6.6%
Extended Momentum Riskn6
Energy
+1.7%1D
ID+1.7%WTD+3.4%MTD+29.8%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Communication Services
+1.5%1D
ID+1.5%WTD+0.7%MTD-10.6%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn16
Financials
+1.4%1D
ID+1.4%WTD+2.9%MTD+4.7%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn20
Health Care
+1.2%1D
ID+1.2%WTD-1.1%MTD+2.4%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn3
Energy
+1.2%1D
ID+1.2%WTD+1.3%MTD+10.5%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn3
Health Care
+0.8%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+0.4%MTD+2.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn5
Energy
+0.8%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+0.2%MTD-4.0%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn9
Materials
+0.7%1D
ID+0.7%WTD-1.0%MTD-13.5%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn9
Industrials
+0.7%1D
ID+0.7%WTD-1.4%MTD-19.3%
Extended Momentum Riskn4
Real Estate
+0.4%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+0.1%MTD+10.3%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn19
Health Care
+0.4%1D
ID+0.4%WTD-0.9%MTD+2.0%
Neutral / Transitionn20
Energy
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.2%MTD+4.7%
Neutral / Transitionn111
Industrials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD-0.6%MTD-6.2%
Neutral / Transitionn20
Materials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD-0.7%MTD-3.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn11
Real Estate
+0.2%1D
ID+0.2%WTD-0.3%MTD+4.5%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn6
Materials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD-1.1%MTD-2.8%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn3
Consumer Discretionary
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD-1.1%MTD+1.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn14
Information Technology
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD-0.1%MTD+2.3%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn27
Consumer Discretionary
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD-1.1%MTD-3.1%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn6
Utilities
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD-0.3%MTD-3.7%
Neutral / Transitionn20
Real Estate
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD-1.1%MTD+0.8%
Neutral / Transitionn56
Financials
-0.1%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-0.3%MTD+2.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn12
Information Technology
-0.1%1D
ID-0.1%WTD+0.3%MTD+7.0%
Neutral / Transitionn61
Health Care
-0.1%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-1.6%MTD-0.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn4
Consumer Staples
-0.2%1D
ID-0.2%WTD-0.7%MTD+6.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn11
Health Care
-0.3%1D
ID-0.3%WTD-1.5%MTD-3.0%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn4
Consumer Discretionary
-0.3%1D
ID-0.3%WTD-0.6%MTD+8.8%
Neutral / Transitionn22
Utilities
-0.4%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-1.1%MTD-2.4%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn24
Financials
-0.4%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-1.1%MTD+6.1%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn19
Real Estate
-0.4%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-1.0%MTD+3.1%
Neutral / Transitionn61
Consumer Discretionary
-0.5%1D
ID-0.5%WTD-1.4%MTD-1.4%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn37
Financials
-0.5%1D
ID-0.5%WTD-1.2%MTD+2.0%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn34
Industrials
-0.6%1D
ID-0.6%WTD-2.2%MTD-8.7%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn14
Utilities
-0.6%1D
ID-0.6%WTD-0.8%MTD+2.2%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn8
Information Technology
-0.6%1D
ID-0.6%WTD-1.4%MTD+6.6%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn10
Financials
-0.6%1D
ID-0.6%WTD-0.7%MTD+5.9%
Neutral / Transitionn19
Communication Services
-0.7%1D
ID-0.7%WTD-0.7%MTD+0.9%
Neutral / Transitionn28
Consumer Staples
-0.7%1D
ID-0.7%WTD-1.1%MTD+0.3%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn8
Consumer Discretionary
-0.7%1D
ID-0.7%WTD-1.8%MTD+1.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn14
Communication Services
-0.8%1D
ID-0.8%WTD-1.6%MTD+0.3%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn5
Health Care
-0.8%1D
ID-0.8%WTD-2.0%MTD+1.9%
Extended Momentum Riskn4
Health Care
-0.9%1D
ID-0.9%WTD-0.6%MTD+5.2%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn15
Industrials
-0.9%1D
ID-0.9%WTD-1.4%MTD+1.1%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn3
Consumer Staples
-0.9%1D
ID-0.9%WTD-0.7%MTD+4.8%
Extended Momentum Riskn4
Industrials
-0.9%1D
ID-0.9%WTD-0.4%MTD+11.3%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn10
Real Estate
-1.0%1D
ID-1.0%WTD-2.3%MTD+0.5%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn5
Communication Services
-1.1%1D
ID-1.1%WTD-2.2%MTD+2.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn9
Consumer Staples
-1.2%1D
ID-1.2%WTD-1.4%MTD+0.0%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn7
Information Technology
-1.4%1D
ID-1.4%WTD-1.8%MTD+6.2%
Where each factor basket is working by sector — sorted by 1-day equal-weight return, ≥3 names per cell.
Regime Assessment
trend+0.25
breadth+0.70
volatility+1.50
rotation-1.35
size+0.30
style-1.00
p(stay 1d)0.87
p(persist 5d)0.55
expected dwell7.7 td
samplen=506

Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — size positions to the risk state, don't chase the label. Transition is empirical; a label change needs two-run confirmation.

The current regime is Choppy Neutral (confidence 0.87, composite 0.1875), entered two days ago and expected to persist for another 5.7 trading days. The volatility component is elevated at 1.5, while rotation is deeply negative at -1.35, indicating lack of sustained sector leadership. Breadth is moderately positive at 0.7, with 59.44% of stocks above their 50-day moving average. The trend score is weak at 0.25, reflecting a narrow range relative to moving averages. This configuration historically precedes elevated volatility and frequent drawdowns, but does not imply a directional forecast.

Size and Breadth

Size bucketNIntradayD1WTDBreadth
Large (>=5B)1004+0.13%+0.13%-0.48%42.0% adv
Micro Cap $250M-$1B201n/a+0.00%-1.33%0.0% adv
Nano Cap <$250M15n/a+0.00%-2.80%0.0% adv
Small Cap $1B-$5B807n/a+0.00%-0.89%0.0% adv
% > SMA50% > SMA200AdvancersDecliners% Baskets Positive
59.4%65.3%42057853.2%

Breadth is moderate with 59.44% of stocks above their 50-day moving average and 65.26% above the 200-day. The advance-decline ratio sits at 0.727, indicating more decliners than advancers. On the size front, small caps outperformed large caps over the past week (0.5349%) but have underperformed on a monthly basis (-0.5039%) and are roughly flat on the day (-0.0155%). The small/mid versus large-cap basket return is -0.1265% intraday. Overall, 53.19% of production baskets are positive, reflecting a mixed but slightly narrow market.

Volume and Participation

DimensionBasketMedian RVol% Members RVol>1.5
productionBroken Momentum / Avoid0.599.2%
productionExtended Momentum Risk0.8220.8%
productionInstitutional Large-Cap Accumulation0.756.7%
productionLow-Vol Aligned Uptrend0.414.9%
productionNeutral / Transition0.5210.8%
productionOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch1.0726.1%
productionSmaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout0.500.0%
productionThematic Momentum Leadership0.456.0%
productionUnclassified / Insufficient Data0.4812.5%
TickerBasketRVolReturnNote
DHRNeutral / Transition17.83-14.57%distribution volume
HASBroken Momentum / Avoid15.30+12.33%breakout volume
EFXNeutral / Transition11.54-7.59%distribution volume
MMMNeutral / Transition9.95+7.64%breakout volume
HALNeutral / Transition8.00-6.15%distribution volume

Volume is concentrated in the Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch basket, which has a median rvol of 1.07 and 26.1% of its members exceeding 1.5 times average volume. Extended Momentum Risk also shows elevated activity with a median rvol of 0.82 and a 20.8% rvol>1.5 share. The Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation basket has a median rvol of 0.75 but only 6.7% of names above 1.5. Among individual anomalies, DHR registered distribution volume at 17.83 times average alongside a 14.57% decline, while HAS experienced breakout volume of 15.30 times with a 12.33% gain.

Cross-Asset Confirmation

CAC +0.15 — mixed (positive = risk-supportive)

Signal5dPoints
Credit (HYG−LQD)+0.02%+0.00
Risk vs defensives-0.96%+0.00
Dollar (−UUP)+0.39%+0.00
Curve (IEF/TLT)+0.36%+0.15

Duration-in-disguise — 63d TLT beta of style spreads

SpreadTLT ββ · SPY-ctrlβ%ileDuration read
Momentum - LowVol1.330.2599%duration-driven (current, unstable)
Growth - Value0.18-0.2372%factor-driven (current, unstable)
HighBeta - LowVol1.450.0699%duration-driven (current, unstable)
Small - Large0.610.6797%duration-driven (persistent)

Opportunity Watchlist

TickerSectorOpportunityWave stageRegime fit
SOFIFinancials88.2Wave 1 / accumulation94.8
FITBFinancials85.6Wave 3-5 / breakout92.2
VICIReal Estate84.8Wave 1 / accumulation88.9
AESUtilities85.9Wave 2-4 / pullback88.6
AGNCReal Estate81.8Wave 3-5 / breakout88.4
TickerSince closeVs basketRead
SOFI+1.00%+0.75%confirms
FITB-0.57%-0.07%diverges
VICI-0.99%-0.82%diverges
AES+0.03%+0.64%confirms
AGNC-0.05%+0.56%diverges

Our top-scoring equity opportunity is SOFI (88.2) in Financials, currently in Wave 1/accumulation with a regime fit of 94.8. FITB (85.6) also scores highly, in Wave 3-5/breakout within Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation. On the short side, the pattern screener flags RIOT with a double top (74.35) and FIGR with a bear flag (71.99) as the highest-conviction setups. Other high scorers include AES (85.9) in a pullback and VICI (84.8) in accumulation, though intraday confirmation is mixed.

Multi-Horizon Context
BasketD3WTDMTD
production: Broken Momentum / Avoid-2.35%-0.93%-2.35%
production: Extended Momentum Risk+2.41%+0.78%+15.72%
production: Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation-0.94%-0.79%+5.86%
production: Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend-1.63%-1.21%+2.03%
production: Neutral / Transition-0.98%-0.30%-2.57%
production: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-1.85%+0.65%-18.13%
production: Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout+0.96%-0.96%+4.32%
production: Thematic Momentum Leadership-0.69%-0.61%+4.95%
production: Unclassified / Insufficient Data+0.43%+0.38%-3.72%
theme: AI Infrastructure-0.83%-0.09%-4.26%
theme: Cloud Software-1.06%-0.29%+2.21%
theme: Commodities / Materials-1.79%-0.82%-6.95%
theme: Consumer / Retail-1.82%-0.81%+0.21%
theme: Crypto / Digital Assets-0.17%+0.66%+1.29%
theme: Cybersecurity-0.77%-0.52%+1.75%
theme: Defense / Aerospace-0.69%-0.60%-9.67%
theme: Energy Transition-0.48%-0.23%-6.66%
theme: Financials / Credit-1.73%-0.76%+1.65%
theme: Healthcare / Biotech-1.31%-1.55%-1.30%
theme: Housing / Real Estate-2.16%-1.19%-1.24%
theme: Industrial Automation-1.24%-0.47%-4.49%
theme: Macro Rates / Inflation-1.36%-0.68%-1.48%
theme: Oil & Gas-0.02%-0.05%+0.01%
theme: Semiconductors-0.08%+0.87%-9.98%
sector: Communication Services-2.00%-1.05%+0.47%
sector: Consumer Discretionary-2.49%-1.41%-1.27%
sector: Consumer Staples-1.88%-1.06%+1.41%
sector: Energy+2.04%+0.78%+7.85%
sector: Financials-1.43%-0.27%+3.33%
sector: Health Care-1.22%-1.33%+0.14%
sector: Industrials-1.97%-0.96%-6.05%
sector: Information Technology+1.09%+1.52%-5.00%
sector: Materials-1.63%-0.77%-5.64%
sector: Real Estate-1.26%-1.05%+2.51%
sector: Utilities-1.55%-0.80%-1.52%
size: Large (>=5B)-1.11%-0.48%-1.24%
size: Micro Cap $250M-$1B-1.49%-1.33%-3.19%
size: Nano Cap <$250M-1.07%-2.80%+18.02%
size: Small Cap $1B-$5B-1.40%-0.89%-0.95%
style: Base Building / Coiled-1.81%-0.95%-1.47%
style: Extended Overbought Momentum+2.13%+0.91%+15.70%
style: High-Vol Breakdown-1.86%-0.02%-9.74%
style: High-Vol Momentum+1.67%-0.35%+6.89%
style: Low-Vol Uptrend-1.41%-1.04%+2.26%
style: Momentum Breakout / Leadership+0.07%-0.60%+9.09%
style: Neutral / Transition-0.87%-0.29%-2.60%
style: Normal Vol/Trend-0.50%+0.12%-1.96%
style: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch-1.85%+0.65%-18.13%
style: Persistent Uptrend / Compounder-1.30%-0.98%+2.87%
style: Weak Downtrend / Avoid Momentum-2.35%-0.93%-2.35%

Near-term returns show Energy (0.61% intraday, 0.78% week-to-date) and Technology (1.27% intraday) leading, while Consumer Staples (-0.75%) and Communication Services (-0.59%) lag. Over the trailing month, Energy has gained 9.92%, contrasting with Materials’ decline of 8.88%. Longer-term, Health Care’s one-year return of 68.50% is the strongest among sectors, while Technology’s two-year return of 88.3% underscores its multi-year outperformance. Year-to-date, Energy leads at 37.65%, with Technology at 36.08% not far behind.

Top Single-Stock Setups (4h–1 Week)

#1STTFinancials100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 8.3/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 631w +2.5%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$182.58
RSI64
1wk+2.5%
ATR stop−4.3%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=84)
-6%+8%
#2XMTRIndustrials98
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout · factor score 7.2/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 631w +3.6%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$100.12
RSI63
1wk+3.6%
ATR stop−7.8%
1-week return vs Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout basket (n=35)
-7%+8%
#3MUSAConsumer Discretionary98
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout · factor score 7.6/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 641w +2.0%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$622.78
RSI64
1wk+2.0%
ATR stop−5.2%
1-week return vs Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout basket (n=35)
-7%+8%
#4NTNXInformation Technology97
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.9/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 621w -0.2%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$55.11
RSI63
1wk-0.2%
ATR stop−6.3%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=84)
-6%+8%
#5CFMaterials97
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.6/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 651w +2.2%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$123.57
RSI66
1wk+2.2%
ATR stop−5.2%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=84)
-6%+8%

Long-only opportunity lens: names where the factor basket and the technical state agree over a 4-hour-to-1-week window. Confluence score, not a price target — size to the ATR stop and treat every setup as a probability, not a promise.

Long-only confluence screen: the factor engine's basket and the technical state pointing the same way over a 4-hour-to-1-week window.

Data Quality and Coverage

SourceAs of
intraday_bars2026-07-21T09:45:00-04:00
warehouse_snapshot2026-07-21
proxy_daily2026-07-20
screener_artifact2026-07-20T09:20:51.231327-04:00
grouped_dailyunavailable
  • Overall coverage: 99.6%
  • Degraded baskets: theme:Healthcare / Biotech
  • Missing archived report days: 2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07
  • Warning: thin production basket: Unclassified / Insufficient Data n_members=8 (<10); exclude from broad leadership claims
  • Report generated at 2026-07-21T10:01:41-04:00; every figure above is computed deterministically from report.json
BoltFactors © 2026 · MORNING edition · 2026-07-21 · GitHub · every number is computed deterministically from report.json before narration; ideas pair today's live trigger with a static historical prior.