Midday · market state
Choppy Neutralheld 3 td · typically ~8 td · ~5 td left · fresh · p(stay) 0.87
3td in — ~5td of typical dwell leftfresh
age 3tdtypical dwell ~8td
SPY +0.18% since prior close; Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch leads (+0.44%), Unclassified / Insufficient Data lags (-2.15%).
Risk-STATE gauge — monotone in forward volatility, not direction. Size to the state; don't chase the label.
Session Snapshot
CAC +0.30mixed
−risk-off0+risk-on
Equitiesbroad index tape · 5/8 adv
+0.15%med
DIA +0.4%MDY +0.2%RSP +0.2%SPY +0.2%VTI +0.1%QQQ -0.1%IJR -0.3%IWM -0.7%
Rates & Creditduration + credit spread · 0/4 adv
-0.12%med
LQD -0.1%TLT -0.1%HYG -0.1%IEF -0.1%
Commodities & FXgold · oil · the dollar · 2/3 adv
+1.51%med
USO +1.9%GLD +1.5%UUP -0.1%
Globalnot in snapshot
No proxy for this band in the current snapshot — data-plumbing follow-up.
SPY+0.2%rvol 0.7
QQQ-0.1%rvol 1.0
DIA+0.4%rvol 1.4
IWM-0.7%rvol 1.2
MDY+0.2%rvol 0.7
IJR-0.3%rvol 0.9
RSP+0.2%rvol 0.7
VTI+0.1%rvol 1.2
XLK-0.1%rvol 0.8
XLF+0.2%rvol 1.5
XLE+1.1%rvol 1.6
XLV-0.2%rvol 0.7
XLI+0.4%rvol 0.8
XLY-0.3%rvol 1.0
XLP+0.6%rvol 0.9
XLU+2.0%rvol 1.2
XLB+1.5%rvol 1.3
XLC-0.1%rvol 0.8
XLRE-0.3%rvol 1.1
MTUM+0.4%rvol 0.9
VLUE+0.8%rvol 0.2
QUAL-0.1%rvol 0.7
USMV-0.1%rvol 0.7
SPLV+0.7%rvol 0.7
SPHB+0.4%rvol 0.8
IWF+0.1%rvol 1.0
IWD+0.2%rvol 0.4
VUG-0.2%rvol 0.8
VTV+0.6%rvol 0.8
SMH+0.8%rvol 0.7
XBI-1.4%rvol 0.9
ITA+1.0%rvol 0.8
KRE-0.6%rvol 1.1
XHB+1.0%rvol 1.1
TAN+0.5%rvol 0.7
TLT-0.1%rvol 0.8
IEF-0.1%rvol 0.8
HYG-0.1%rvol 1.2
LQD-0.1%rvol 1.1
GLD+1.5%rvol 1.6
USO+1.9%rvol 1.9
UUP-0.1%rvol 0.6
Midday July 22 trades within a Choppy Neutral regime (composite 0.24, confidence 0.87, age 3 days). Large caps ($5B+) add 0.05% on mixed breadth: 537 advancing, 461 declining, 55.3% of baskets positive. Volume anomalies feature PAG +10.88% on 14.67x relative volume, SMCI +23.59% on 8.22x, and distribution in PEGA -16.19% on 8.09x. The regime’s volatility component at 1.5 and leadership flip signal reflect elevated chop, consistent with above-average drawdown frequency.
SPY+0.18%gap -0.22% · open +0.40%
Best factor+0.44%Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch
Worst factor-2.15%Unclassified / Insufficient Data
Breadth55%baskets +ve · A/D 537/461
Actionable Trading Ideas
High convictionregime:04 · n=506
Size the book to Choppy Neutral, don't chase it — the label reads forward volatility, not direction (persists ~8 td, p_stay 0.87).
Regime context — size to the state: Choppy Neutral
Choppy Neutral (composite 0.24, confidence 0.87)
InvalidationInvalidated on a confirmed regime transition (the two-run confirmation rule).
why / how
EvidenceThis regime historically persists ~8 td, p_stay 0.87. Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — Distribution Risk historically preceded the BEST fwd-20d returns (+2.54%).
ExpressSet gross/net to the volatility state, not the label's tone; keep position sizing modest here.
FramingA risk-state gauge: size positions, do not chase direction off the label.
Low convictiongap:01 · n=74435
Fade PEGA's down-gap into the close — down-gaps ≥1% have bounced +13bps (n=74,435, 51.6% up); tiny edge, tight risk.
Gap fade — down-gap bounce into the close
PEGA gapped -18.16% at the open
InvalidationInvalidated if the gap keeps trending down through 10:30 on expanding volume.
why / how
EvidenceDown-gaps >=1% have bounced +13-14bps from 10:00 into the close (n=74,435, t=14.3, 51.6% up); strongest faders DIA/XLE/XLI/KRE/MDY/SPY.
ExpressFade intraday weakness in PEGA, RDDT, GEV, AIR, MXL from ~10:00 ET toward the close.
FramingA small positive-expectancy mean-reversion, not a conviction long — tiny edge, tight risk.
Low convictionwarehouse:09
Trade MARA two-sided, not as a squeeze long — crowded short float carries ~2.5x baseline odds of a big move both ways.
Event risk — crowded short float
MARA short float 28.0% (13 names >=20%)
InvalidationNot a trade until a catalyst and confirmation align.
why / how
EvidenceHigh short-float names carry ~2.5x baseline odds of a +15% 10-day move (16.9% vs 6.8%), in BOTH directions.
ExpressTreat MARA, PATH, HIMS, TNGX as elevated-variance event risk; size for a two-sided move, not a squeeze long.
FramingEvent risk, not a buy signal — the distribution is fat-tailed both ways.
Intraday Factor Moves
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch+0.44%
27 names · 96% cov · rvol 1.07
move vs all baskets today
-2%med -0%+0%
+0.44%100ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.4%
1D+0.4%
3D-0.2%
1W-6.4%
MTD-15.2%
1M-17.9%
3M-19.2%
YTD-9.1%
1Y+11.5%
2Y+66.0%
Broken Momentum / Avoid+0.33%
176 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.78
move vs all baskets today
-2%med -0%+0%
+0.33%89ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.3%
1D+0.3%
3D-0.3%
1W-1.2%
MTD-2.7%
1M-3.3%
3M-15.1%
YTD-15.6%
1Y-11.6%
2Y+15.1%
Neutral / Transition+0.14%
526 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.66
move vs all baskets today
-2%med -0%+0%
+0.14%78ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.1%
1D+0.1%
3D+0.8%
1W-0.0%
MTD-2.1%
1M-0.4%
3M+6.8%
YTD+23.6%
1Y+41.0%
2Y+60.5%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend+0.13%
77 names · 99% cov · rvol 0.66
move vs all baskets today
-2%med -0%+0%
+0.13%67ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.1%
1D+0.1%
3D-0.6%
1W+1.3%
MTD+2.9%
1M+5.6%
3M+7.0%
YTD+13.6%
1Y+18.7%
2Y+27.2%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation-0.10%
38 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.79
move vs all baskets today
-2%med -0%+0%
-0.10%56ᵗʰ pctile
ID-0.1%
1D-0.1%
3D-0.7%
1W+0.5%
MTD+4.9%
1M+10.0%
3M+25.1%
YTD+26.8%
1Y+34.3%
2Y+58.9%
Extended Momentum Risk-0.13%
22 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.63
move vs all baskets today
-2%med -0%+0%
-0.13%44ᵗʰ pctile
ID-0.1%
1D-0.1%
3D+0.8%
1W+5.7%
MTD+16.7%
1M+21.6%
3M+23.9%
YTD+48.8%
1Y+61.7%
2Y+62.4%
Thematic Momentum Leadership-0.42%
96 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.70
move vs all baskets today
-2%med -0%+0%
-0.42%33ᵗʰ pctile
ID-0.4%
1D-0.4%
3D-0.5%
1W+0.8%
MTD+4.3%
1M+9.5%
3M+21.8%
YTD+29.6%
1Y+46.1%
2Y+59.7%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout-1.22%
34 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.67
move vs all baskets today
-2%med -0%+0%
-1.22%22ᵗʰ pctile
ID-1.2%
1D-1.2%
3D-1.3%
1W-0.7%
MTD+3.7%
1M+12.9%
3M+48.7%
YTD+81.0%
1Y+136.0%
2Y+151.8%
Unclassified / Insufficient Data thin — n<10-2.15%
8 names · 100% cov · rvol 0.81
move vs all baskets today
-2%med -0%+0%
-2.15%11ᵗʰ pctile
ID-2.1%
1D-2.1%
3D-0.9%
1W-1.4%
MTD-5.6%
1M-0.4%
3M+7.5%
YTD+33.9%
Factor performance reveals sharp momentum compression. High-Vol Momentum falls 1.27% intraday, while Momentum Breakout loses 0.50%. Oversold / Mean-Reversion gains 0.44% and Base Building adds 0.27%, signaling a tentative mean-reversion bid. Size tilts marginally: large caps rise 0.05%, small caps are flat (d1 0.0%). The regime’s size score of -0.75 underscores the narrowing leadership. High-Vol Momentum’s 53.3% m3 gain emphasizes persistent long-term strength despite today’s interim reversal.
Sector Rotation
Utilities+1.65%
Materials+1.55%
Energy+1.28%
Consumer Staples+0.59%
Industrials+0.54%
Consumer Discretionary+0.53%
Financials-0.14%
Real Estate-0.28%
Communication Services-0.54%
Health Care-0.63%
Information Technology-1.04%
Defensive sectors dominate sector flows. Utilities surge 1.65% on 97.7% breadth, followed by Materials (+1.55%) and Energy (+1.28%). Information Technology underperforms, down 1.04% with 32.1% breadth, while Communication Services (-0.54%) and Health Care (-0.63%) also trade lower. Week-to-date, Energy extends to +2.71% and Materials to +1.87%, contrasting with IT’s positive wtd of 1.23%. The regime’s rotation score of -1.35 and active leadership flip confirm rapid repositioning.
Themes and Keyword Baskets
Commodities / Materials+0.6%1D
161 names · 75% cov
ID+1.2%WTD+2.6%MTD-3.9%YTD+10.1%
Energy Transition+0.4%1D
240 names · 82% cov
ID+0.8%WTD+2.1%MTD-4.7%YTD+23.4%
Defense / Aerospace+0.4%1D
202 names · 79% cov
ID+0.8%WTD+3.0%MTD-6.7%YTD+27.4%
Oil & Gas+0.2%1D
269 names · 85% cov
ID+0.4%WTD+1.3%MTD+1.2%YTD+21.3%
Semiconductors+0.2%1D
188 names · 90% cov
ID+0.3%WTD+3.6%MTD-8.0%YTD+54.9%
Macro Rates / Inflation+0.2%1D
506 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+0.3%WTD+0.6%MTD-0.3%YTD+16.1%
Industrial Automation+0.1%1D
494 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+0.1%WTD+1.2%MTD-3.1%YTD+23.7%
Consumer / Retail+0.1%1D
467 names · 75% cov
ID+0.1%WTD-0.6%MTD+0.4%YTD+8.6%
Housing / Real Estate+0.0%1D
439 names · 71% cov
ID+0.0%WTD-0.7%MTD-0.9%YTD+11.6%
Crypto / Digital Assets-0.0%1D
150 names · 69% covaggregate only
ID-0.0%WTD+1.6%MTD+2.0%YTD+14.3%
Healthcare / Biotech degraded-0.1%1D
673 names · 58% cov
ID-0.2%WTD+0.2%MTD+0.3%YTD+24.5%
Financials / Credit-0.2%1D
646 names · 63% cov
ID-0.3%WTD-0.8%MTD+1.5%YTD+12.9%
AI Infrastructure-0.2%1D
838 names · 80% covaggregate only
ID-0.3%WTD+1.2%MTD-3.5%YTD+22.4%
Cybersecurity-0.7%1D
94 names · 70% covaggregate only
ID-1.2%WTD-2.1%MTD-0.1%YTD+12.5%
Cloud Software-0.8%1D
258 names · 79% covaggregate only
ID-1.3%WTD-1.4%MTD+0.7%YTD+13.2%
Thematic performance mirrors the defensive tilt. Commodities / Materials leads at +1.24% intraday, with Defense / Aerospace (+0.78%) and Energy Transition (+0.78%) following. Cloud Software declines 1.29%, the worst theme, and Cybersecurity drops 1.21%. AI Infrastructure edges 0.29% lower. Week-to-date, Defense / Aerospace is +2.97% and Semiconductors +3.57%, while Cloud Software remains -1.35%. Healthcare / Biotech coverage is degraded at 58.4% and should be interpreted cautiously.
Sigma Board
−3σ0+3σ
Small - Large d1spread · -0.87% · 252d · n=252-1.25σ
% above SMA200breadth · 67.57 · 60d · n=60+1.17σ
Growth - Value w1spread · -1.93% · 252d · n=252-0.91σ
Credit w1spread · +0.44% · 252d · n=252+0.87σ
EqualWeight - CapWeight w1spread · +0.82% · 252d · n=252+0.77σ
HighBeta - LowVol w1spread · -1.78% · 252d · n=252-0.66σ
Duration w1spread · -0.80% · 252d · n=252-0.62σ
% above SMA50breadth · 62.85 · 252d · n=252+0.50σ
Style panel dispersion intensifies at midday. High-Vol Momentum drops 1.27% as the worst performer, with only 21.7% of members advancing. Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch rebounds 0.44%, and Base Building / Coiled adds 0.27%. Extended Overbought Momentum gains 0.28% on just 5 stocks. Momentum Breakout declines 0.50%, Persistent Uptrend dips 0.06%, and Low-Vol Uptrend edges up 0.18%. Relative volume medians remain muted, led by Oversold at 1.07 and High-Vol Breakdown at 0.92.
Factor × Sector Map
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn7
Consumer Discretionary
+2.4%1D
ID+2.4%WTD+1.1%MTD+9.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn6
Energy
+2.4%1D
ID+2.4%WTD+2.7%MTD-1.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn15
Materials
+2.3%1D
ID+2.3%WTD+2.3%MTD-2.3%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn7
Utilities
+2.1%1D
ID+2.1%WTD+3.5%MTD-2.9%
Neutral / Transitionn28
Utilities
+1.7%1D
ID+1.7%WTD+0.6%MTD+0.1%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn8
Utilities
+1.5%1D
ID+1.5%WTD+1.5%MTD+5.1%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Materials
+1.4%1D
ID+1.4%WTD+1.9%MTD-13.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn5
Energy
+1.4%1D
ID+1.4%WTD+3.5%MTD+13.6%
Neutral / Transitionn18
Energy
+1.2%1D
ID+1.2%WTD+2.4%MTD+5.5%
Neutral / Transitionn16
Materials
+1.1%1D
ID+1.1%WTD+1.4%MTD-2.5%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn32
Industrials
+1.0%1D
ID+1.0%WTD-0.2%MTD-6.3%
Neutral / Transitionn30
Consumer Staples
+0.6%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.0%MTD+1.7%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn11
Industrials
+0.6%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.4%MTD+2.6%
Neutral / Transitionn65
Consumer Discretionary
+0.6%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.0%MTD-0.2%
Neutral / Transitionn113
Industrials
+0.5%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+1.1%MTD-4.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn11
Real Estate
+0.5%1D
ID+0.5%WTD-2.5%MTD-0.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn4
Consumer Staples
+0.5%1D
ID+0.5%WTD-0.7%MTD+3.0%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn5
Industrials
+0.5%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+0.2%MTD+6.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn10
Industrials
+0.4%1D
ID+0.4%WTD-0.6%MTD-14.3%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn6
Information Technology
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD-0.5%MTD-16.6%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn9
Consumer Staples
+0.2%1D
ID+0.2%WTD-1.7%MTD-0.2%
Extended Momentum Riskn7
Energy
+0.2%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+3.4%MTD+26.7%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn12
Financials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD-0.6%MTD+5.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn25
Consumer Discretionary
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD-1.8%MTD-4.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn16
Financials
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+0.8%MTD+2.5%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn6
Communication Services
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD-2.5%MTD+4.7%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn13
Real Estate
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD-0.5%MTD+4.2%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn6
Health Care
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD+0.9%MTD+3.1%
Neutral / Transitionn61
Financials
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD+0.1%MTD+2.5%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn5
Consumer Discretionary
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD-0.3%MTD+9.8%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn3
Health Care
-0.1%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-2.2%MTD+1.8%
Extended Momentum Riskn4
Financials
-0.2%1D
ID-0.2%WTD-1.1%MTD+18.4%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn29
Financials
-0.3%1D
ID-0.3%WTD-1.2%MTD+2.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn23
Financials
-0.3%1D
ID-0.3%WTD-0.8%MTD+5.1%
Neutral / Transitionn50
Health Care
-0.3%1D
ID-0.3%WTD-1.0%MTD+0.4%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn15
Communication Services
-0.3%1D
ID-0.3%WTD-1.1%MTD-0.6%
Neutral / Transitionn23
Real Estate
-0.5%1D
ID-0.5%WTD-1.6%MTD+0.1%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn29
Health Care
-0.6%1D
ID-0.6%WTD-0.1%MTD+1.7%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn13
Real Estate
-0.7%1D
ID-0.7%WTD-1.1%MTD+3.5%
Neutral / Transitionn103
Information Technology
-0.8%1D
ID-0.8%WTD+2.9%MTD-7.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn13
Health Care
-0.8%1D
ID-0.8%WTD-2.5%MTD-2.7%
Extended Momentum Riskn5
Real Estate
-0.8%1D
ID-0.8%WTD+0.1%MTD+9.5%
Neutral / Transitionn19
Communication Services
-1.0%1D
ID-1.0%WTD-1.7%MTD-1.0%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn27
Information Technology
-1.1%1D
ID-1.1%WTD-0.1%MTD-3.2%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn9
Information Technology
-1.2%1D
ID-1.2%WTD-2.3%MTD+2.7%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn20
Health Care
-1.3%1D
ID-1.3%WTD-1.1%MTD+2.5%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn6
Information Technology
-2.7%1D
ID-2.7%WTD-5.2%MTD-2.4%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn10
Information Technology
-2.7%1D
ID-2.7%WTD-4.5%MTD+3.6%
Unclassified / Insufficient Datan3
Information Technology
-3.3%1D
ID-3.3%WTD+0.4%MTD-5.3%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn3
Industrials
-3.4%1D
ID-3.4%WTD+1.4%MTD-2.4%
Where each factor basket is working by sector — sorted by 1-day equal-weight return, ≥3 names per cell.
Regime Assessment
trend+0.65
breadth+0.70
volatility+1.50
rotation-1.35
size-0.75
style-0.25
p(stay 1d)0.87
p(persist 5d)0.55
expected dwell7.7 td
samplen=506
Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — size positions to the risk state, don't chase the label. Transition is empirical; a label change needs two-run confirmation.
The market regime is identified as Choppy Neutral with a confidence of 0.87 and a composite score of 0.2425. This regime, which began three days ago, has an expected dwell of 7.7 trading days. Component scores show elevated volatility at 1.5, modest trend at 0.65, and breadth at 0.70, while rotation registers -1.35 and size -0.75. The transition probability to stay in this regime over the next day is 0.87.
Size and Breadth
| Size bucket | N | Intraday | D1 | WTD | Breadth |
|---|
| Large (>=5B) | 1004 | +0.05% | +0.05% | +0.19% | 53.7% adv |
| Micro Cap $250M-$1B | 201 | n/a | +0.00% | +1.05% | 0.0% adv |
| Nano Cap <$250M | 15 | n/a | +0.00% | -1.56% | 0.0% adv |
| Small Cap $1B-$5B | 807 | n/a | +0.00% | +0.13% | 0.0% adv |
| % > SMA50 | % > SMA200 | Advancers | Decliners | % Baskets Positive |
|---|
| 62.9% | 67.6% | 537 | 461 | 55.3% |
Large-cap breadth and returns dominate the midday picture. The Large (>=5B) cohort posts an intraday return of 0.05% and a year-to-date gain of 18.32%, though month-to-date it is down 0.71%. Overall market breadth shows 62.85% of stocks above their 50-day moving average and 67.57% above the 200-day, with 537 advancers against 461 decliners. The advance-decline ratio stands at 1.165. Meanwhile, small-cap and micro-cap intraday data are unavailable, but small caps have a month-to-date decline of 0.14% and a year-to-date rise of 21.16%.
Volume and Participation
| Dimension | Basket | Median RVol | % Members RVol>1.5 |
|---|
| production | Broken Momentum / Avoid | 0.78 | 11.9% |
| production | Extended Momentum Risk | 0.63 | 0.0% |
| production | Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation | 0.79 | 7.9% |
| production | Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend | 0.66 | 5.3% |
| production | Neutral / Transition | 0.66 | 8.0% |
| production | Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | 1.07 | 15.4% |
| production | Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout | 0.67 | 8.8% |
| production | Thematic Momentum Leadership | 0.70 | 5.2% |
| production | Unclassified / Insufficient Data | 0.81 | 12.5% |
| Ticker | Basket | RVol | Return | Note |
|---|
| PAG | Thematic Momentum Leadership | 14.67 | +10.88% | breakout volume |
| SMCI | Broken Momentum / Avoid | 8.22 | +23.59% | breakout volume |
| PEGA | Broken Momentum / Avoid | 8.09 | -16.19% | distribution volume |
| WAB | Neutral / Transition | 5.72 | +11.77% | breakout volume |
| NTRS | Thematic Momentum Leadership | 5.10 | -3.14% | distribution volume |
Volume participation is elevated in select production baskets. The Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch basket shows a median relative volume of 1.07, with 15.4% of members exceeding 1.5x average volume. Broken Momentum / Avoid records a median rvol of 0.78 and 11.9% above the 1.5 threshold. Standout anomalies include PAG with rvol 14.67 on a 10.88% gain, SMCI with rvol 8.22 on a 23.59% surge, and PEGA with rvol 8.09 on a 16.19% decline, indicating concentrated distribution.
Cross-Asset Confirmation
CAC +0.30 — mixed (positive = risk-supportive)
| Signal | 5d | Points |
|---|
| Credit (HYG−LQD) | +0.30% | +0.30 |
| Risk vs defensives | -0.58% | +0.00 |
| Dollar (−UUP) | -0.32% | +0.00 |
| Curve (IEF/TLT) | +0.24% | +0.00 |
Duration-in-disguise — 63d TLT beta of style spreads
| Spread | TLT β | β · SPY-ctrl | | β | %ile | Duration read |
|---|
| Momentum - LowVol | 1.29 | 0.19 | 98% | duration-driven (current, unstable) |
| Growth - Value | 0.16 | -0.25 | 67% | factor-driven (current, unstable) |
| HighBeta - LowVol | 1.41 | 0.00 | 98% | duration-driven (current, unstable) |
| Small - Large | 0.60 | 0.65 | 97% | duration-driven (persistent) |
Opportunity Watchlist
Intraday confirmation screener data is unavailable; the top_setups array is null and source_unavailable is flagged. Consequently, no actionable opportunities are surfacing at this midday snapshot.
Multi-Horizon Context
| Basket | D3 | WTD | MTD |
|---|
| production: Broken Momentum / Avoid | -0.31% | -0.31% | -2.66% |
| production: Extended Momentum Risk | +0.85% | +0.85% | +16.70% |
| production: Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation | -0.65% | -0.65% | +4.86% |
| production: Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend | -0.57% | -0.57% | +2.86% |
| production: Neutral / Transition | +0.76% | +0.76% | -2.09% |
| production: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -0.16% | -0.16% | -15.23% |
| production: Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout | -1.32% | -1.32% | +3.67% |
| production: Thematic Momentum Leadership | -0.49% | -0.49% | +4.27% |
| production: Unclassified / Insufficient Data | -0.87% | -0.87% | -5.63% |
| theme: AI Infrastructure | +1.16% | +1.16% | -3.47% |
| theme: Cloud Software | -1.35% | -1.35% | +0.74% |
| theme: Commodities / Materials | +2.63% | +2.63% | -3.90% |
| theme: Consumer / Retail | -0.57% | -0.57% | +0.42% |
| theme: Crypto / Digital Assets | +1.57% | +1.57% | +2.01% |
| theme: Cybersecurity | -2.09% | -2.09% | -0.12% |
| theme: Defense / Aerospace | +2.97% | +2.97% | -6.74% |
| theme: Energy Transition | +2.07% | +2.07% | -4.73% |
| theme: Financials / Credit | -0.82% | -0.82% | +1.53% |
| theme: Healthcare / Biotech | +0.22% | +0.22% | +0.34% |
| theme: Housing / Real Estate | -0.74% | -0.74% | -0.86% |
| theme: Industrial Automation | +1.23% | +1.23% | -3.09% |
| theme: Macro Rates / Inflation | +0.58% | +0.58% | -0.34% |
| theme: Oil & Gas | +1.29% | +1.29% | +1.19% |
| theme: Semiconductors | +3.57% | +3.57% | -7.98% |
| sector: Communication Services | -1.56% | -1.56% | -0.08% |
| sector: Consumer Discretionary | -0.42% | -0.42% | -0.28% |
| sector: Consumer Staples | -0.33% | -0.33% | +2.13% |
| sector: Energy | +2.71% | +2.71% | +9.80% |
| sector: Financials | -0.25% | -0.25% | +3.30% |
| sector: Health Care | -0.95% | -0.95% | +0.50% |
| sector: Industrials | +0.70% | +0.70% | -4.52% |
| sector: Information Technology | +1.23% | +1.23% | -5.85% |
| sector: Materials | +1.87% | +1.87% | -3.23% |
| sector: Real Estate | -1.29% | -1.29% | +2.26% |
| sector: Utilities | +1.20% | +1.20% | +0.47% |
| size: Large (>=5B) | +0.19% | +0.19% | -0.71% |
| size: Micro Cap $250M-$1B | +1.05% | +1.05% | -1.20% |
| size: Nano Cap <$250M | -1.56% | -1.56% | +18.67% |
| size: Small Cap $1B-$5B | +0.13% | +0.13% | -0.14% |
| style: Base Building / Coiled | +0.09% | +0.09% | -1.29% |
| style: Extended Overbought Momentum | +1.79% | +1.79% | +18.91% |
| style: High-Vol Breakdown | +1.26% | +1.26% | -8.60% |
| style: High-Vol Momentum | -1.08% | -1.08% | +4.67% |
| style: Low-Vol Uptrend | -0.47% | -0.47% | +2.93% |
| style: Momentum Breakout / Leadership | -0.54% | -0.54% | +9.27% |
| style: Neutral / Transition | +0.56% | +0.56% | -2.30% |
| style: Normal Vol/Trend | +0.58% | +0.58% | -1.01% |
| style: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -0.16% | -0.16% | -15.23% |
| style: Persistent Uptrend / Compounder | -0.07% | -0.07% | +2.91% |
| style: Weak Downtrend / Avoid Momentum | -0.31% | -0.31% | -2.66% |
Multi-horizon performance reveals a rotation into cyclicals. Energy leads with an intraday gain of 1.28%, week-to-date return of 2.71%, month-to-date surge of 9.8%, and a year-to-date advance of 40.0%. Utilities also rally 1.65% intraday but modest year-to-date at 7.72%. Large caps are flat intraday at 0.05%, down 0.71% month-to-date, yet up 18.32% year-to-date. Information Technology lags with a 1.04% intraday decline and a 5.85% month-to-date drop, despite a 37.16% year-to-date gain.
Top Single-Stock Setups (4h–1 Week)
#1CTVAMaterials100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.9/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 631w +2.4%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$86.94
RSI64
1wk+2.4%
ATR stop−3.5%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=96)
-15%+10%
#2EOGEnergy100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.7/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 631w +4.6%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$143.44
RSI63
1wk+4.7%
ATR stop−3.7%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=96)
-15%+10%
#3OHIReal Estate100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.3/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 641w +4.7%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$50.60
RSI64
1wk+4.7%
ATR stop−3.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=96)
-15%+10%
#4OVVEnergy98
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.7/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 641w +5.4%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$59.37
RSI65
1wk+5.4%
ATR stop−4.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=96)
-15%+10%
#5VTRSHealth Care98
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 8.1/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 651w +6.6%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$17.59
RSI65
1wk+6.6%
ATR stop−4.4%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=96)
-15%+10%
Long-only opportunity lens: names where the factor basket and the technical state agree over a 4-hour-to-1-week window. Confluence score, not a price target — size to the ATR stop and treat every setup as a probability, not a promise.
Long-only confluence screen: the factor engine's basket and the technical state pointing the same way over a 4-hour-to-1-week window.
Data Quality and Coverage
| Source | As of |
|---|
| intraday_bars | 2026-07-22T12:45:00-04:00 |
| warehouse_snapshot | 2026-07-22 |
| proxy_daily | 2026-07-21 |
| screener_artifact | unavailable |
| grouped_daily | unavailable |
- Overall coverage: 99.6%
- Degraded baskets: theme:Healthcare / Biotech
- Missing archived report days: 2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07
- Warning: screener artifact unavailable or stale
- Warning: thin production basket: Unclassified / Insufficient Data n_members=8 (<10); exclude from broad leadership claims
- Report generated at 2026-07-22T13:01:05-04:00; every figure above is computed deterministically from report.json