Premarket · market state
Choppy Neutralheld 4 td · typically ~8 td · ~4 td left · typical · p(stay) 0.87
4td in — ~4td of typical dwell lefttypical
age 4tdtypical dwell ~8td
SPY -0.21% since prior close; Extended Momentum Risk leads (+0.62%), Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout lags (-0.42%).
Risk-STATE gauge — monotone in forward volatility, not direction. Size to the state; don't chase the label.
Session Snapshot
CAC -0.25mixed
−risk-off0+risk-on
Equitiesbroad index tape · 2/7 adv
-0.21%med
IJR +0.1%IWM +0.1%MDY n/aSPY -0.2%RSP -0.2%QQQ -0.2%DIA -0.3%VTI -0.3%
Rates & Creditduration + credit spread · 0/2 adv
-0.10%med
HYG n/aLQD n/aIEF -0.1%TLT -0.1%
Commodities & FXgold · oil · the dollar · 1/2 adv
+1.71%med
USO +4.5%UUP n/aGLD -1.1%
Globalint'l / EM equity · 3/4 adv
+0.53%med
FXI +1.2%EEM +0.8%EWJ +0.3%EFA n/aVGK -0.4%
SPY-0.2%
QQQ-0.2%
DIA-0.3%
IWM+0.1%
MDYn/a
IJR+0.1%
RSP-0.2%
VTI-0.3%
XLK+0.2%
XLF-0.0%
XLE+1.4%
XLV+0.3%
XLIn/a
XLYn/a
XLP+0.1%
XLU-0.2%
XLBn/a
XLCn/a
XLREn/a
MTUM+0.0%
VLUEn/a
QUAL-0.1%
USMVn/a
SPLVn/a
SPHBn/a
IWFn/a
IWDn/a
VUG-0.7%
VTVn/a
SMH+0.0%
XBI-0.2%
ITA+0.9%
KRE+0.0%
XHBn/a
TANn/a
TLT-0.1%
IEF-0.1%
HYGn/a
LQDn/a
GLD-1.1%
USO+4.5%
UUPn/a
EFAn/a
EEM+0.8%
VGK-0.4%
EWJ+0.3%
FXI+1.2%
The premarket opens with a modest risk-on pulse: the Large Cap basket is +0.31% intraday, supported by an advance-decline ratio of 1.94 and 85% of baskets positive. The regime remains Choppy Neutral (composite 0.73, confidence 0.87), now in its fourth day with an expected dwell of another 3.7 days. Volatility is contained, with the RV20 percentile at 29.7 and intraday range at 35% of its 20-day average.
SPY-0.21%gap n/a · open n/a
Best factor+0.62%Extended Momentum Risk
Worst factor-0.42%Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout
Breadth85%baskets +ve · A/D 291/150
Actionable Trading Ideas
High convictionregime:04 · n=506
Size the book to Choppy Neutral, don't chase it — the label reads forward volatility, not direction (persists ~8 td, p_stay 0.87).
Regime context — size to the state: Choppy Neutral
Choppy Neutral (composite 0.73, confidence 0.87)
InvalidationInvalidated on a confirmed regime transition (the two-run confirmation rule).
why / how
EvidenceThis regime historically persists ~8 td, p_stay 0.87. Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — Distribution Risk historically preceded the BEST fwd-20d returns (+2.54%).
ExpressSet gross/net to the volatility state, not the label's tone; keep position sizing modest here.
FramingA risk-state gauge: size positions, do not chase direction off the label.
Low convictionwarehouse:09
Trade MARA two-sided, not as a squeeze long — crowded short float carries ~2.5x baseline odds of a big move both ways.
Event risk — crowded short float
MARA short float 28.0% (13 names >=20%)
InvalidationNot a trade until a catalyst and confirmation align.
why / how
EvidenceHigh short-float names carry ~2.5x baseline odds of a +15% 10-day move (16.9% vs 6.8%), in BOTH directions.
ExpressTreat MARA, PATH, HIMS, TNGX as elevated-variance event risk; size for a two-sided move, not a squeeze long.
FramingEvent risk, not a buy signal — the distribution is fat-tailed both ways.
Intraday Factor Moves
Extended Momentum Risk+1.45%
21 names · 100% cov
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+1%
+1.45%100ᵗʰ pctile
ID+1.4%
1D+0.6%
3D+2.4%
1W+5.0%
MTD+19.4%
1M+23.6%
3M+27.6%
YTD+59.5%
1Y+59.8%
2Y+56.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch+0.45%
24 names · 96% cov
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+1%
+0.45%78ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.5%
1D+0.3%
3D-1.4%
1W-6.4%
MTD-16.8%
1M-17.8%
3M-19.9%
YTD-9.9%
1Y+9.5%
2Y+77.8%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation+0.49%
34 names · 100% cov
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+1%
+0.49%89ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.5%
1D+0.3%
3D+1.5%
1W+0.8%
MTD+5.6%
1M+8.7%
3M+21.2%
YTD+29.0%
1Y+42.0%
2Y+60.5%
Unclassified / Insufficient Data thin — n<10+0.31%
8 names · 100% cov
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+1%
+0.31%44ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.3%
1D+0.2%
3D-0.1%
1W-1.1%
MTD-5.9%
1M+0.5%
3M+7.9%
YTD+34.0%
Thematic Momentum Leadership+0.43%
88 names · 100% cov
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+1%
+0.43%67ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.4%
1D+0.2%
3D+0.6%
1W-0.2%
MTD+5.2%
1M+9.2%
3M+24.9%
YTD+31.9%
1Y+47.2%
2Y+63.3%
Neutral / Transition+0.32%
539 names · 100% cov
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+1%
+0.32%56ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.3%
1D+0.2%
3D+1.1%
1W-0.2%
MTD-2.4%
1M+0.1%
3M+6.7%
YTD+23.3%
1Y+39.5%
2Y+60.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoid+0.23%
169 names · 100% cov
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+1%
+0.23%22ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.2%
1D+0.1%
3D-0.4%
1W-2.5%
MTD-3.1%
1M-2.9%
3M-16.6%
YTD-17.6%
1Y-14.0%
2Y+16.9%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend+0.29%
91 names · 99% cov
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+1%
+0.29%33ᵗʰ pctile
ID+0.3%
1D+0.1%
3D+0.3%
1W-0.4%
MTD+3.0%
1M+4.5%
3M+6.9%
YTD+14.9%
1Y+18.4%
2Y+29.6%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout-0.96%
30 names · 100% cov
move vs all baskets today
-1%med +0%+1%
-0.96%11ᵗʰ pctile
ID-1.0%
1D-0.4%
3D+0.1%
1W+0.7%
MTD+2.4%
1M+11.9%
3M+47.5%
YTD+75.7%
1Y+139.0%
2Y+149.4%
Factor dynamics show momentum leadership extending, with Extended Momentum Risk up 2.74% week-to-date while high-beta breaks down: Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout drops -1.42% week-to-date. The momentum-versus-low-volatility spread widened to 4.48 over the past week, and high-beta outperformed low-vol by 2.21. High-Vol Momentum itself is lagging week-to-date at -0.91%, signaling internal stress within momentum factor strategies. Growth nudges ahead of value by 0.55 over the same window.
Sector Rotation
Energy+1.32%
Information Technology+0.72%
Materials+0.47%
Industrials+0.46%
Financials+0.27%
Real Estate+0.14%
Utilities+0.06%
Health Care+0.04%
Communication Services-0.06%
Consumer Staples-0.08%
Consumer Discretionary-0.56%
Energy extends its rally, gap +1.32% intraday and +3.87% week-to-date on 96% advancing breadth. Consumer Discretionary sinks -0.56% intraday, bringing its weekly loss to -1.17%. Communication Services is the week’s worst at -2.15%. The rotation score of 0.65, with a leadership flip flagged, confirms an environment of rapid sector shifts. Six of eleven sectors sit in basing or early-cycle wave stages, while Real Estate and Financials are in late expansion, contributing to the choppy, two-way flow.
Themes and Keyword Baskets
Semiconductors+0.3%1D
188 names · 89% cov
ID+0.6%WTD+3.0%MTD-8.5%YTD+54.0%
Oil & Gas+0.2%1D
269 names · 85% cov
ID+0.7%WTD+1.4%MTD+1.4%YTD+21.5%
Crypto / Digital Assets+0.2%1D
150 names · 69% covaggregate only
ID+0.5%WTD+1.3%MTD+1.8%YTD+14.2%
Defense / Aerospace+0.2%1D
202 names · 79% cov
ID+0.6%WTD+2.1%MTD-7.4%YTD+26.1%
AI Infrastructure+0.2%1D
838 names · 80% covaggregate only
ID+0.5%WTD+0.4%MTD-4.2%YTD+21.6%
Industrial Automation+0.2%1D
494 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+0.6%WTD+0.8%MTD-3.4%YTD+23.2%
Cloud Software+0.2%1D
258 names · 79% covaggregate only
ID+0.4%WTD-2.7%MTD-0.7%YTD+11.7%
Energy Transition+0.1%1D
240 names · 82% cov
ID+0.4%WTD+1.8%MTD-5.0%YTD+23.1%
Commodities / Materials+0.1%1D
161 names · 75% cov
ID+0.5%WTD+2.9%MTD-3.7%YTD+10.4%
Macro Rates / Inflation+0.1%1D
506 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+0.3%WTD+0.2%MTD-0.7%YTD+15.7%
Cybersecurity+0.1%1D
94 names · 70% covaggregate only
ID+0.2%WTD-3.1%MTD-1.3%YTD+11.2%
Consumer / Retail+0.0%1D
467 names · 75% cov
ID+0.1%WTD-1.0%MTD+0.0%YTD+8.0%
Housing / Real Estate+0.0%1D
439 names · 71% cov
ID+0.2%WTD-1.1%MTD-1.3%YTD+11.2%
Healthcare / Biotech degraded+0.0%1D
673 names · 58% cov
ID+0.1%WTD-0.9%MTD-0.9%YTD+23.1%
Financials / Credit+0.0%1D
646 names · 63% cov
ID+0.0%WTD-1.7%MTD+0.7%YTD+11.9%
Semiconductors catch a 3.0% weekly bid, rebounding from a month-to-date slump of -8.48%, while Oil & Gas adds 1.43% week-to-date on sustained energy strength. Defense / Aerospace climbs 2.15% this week, continuing its trend. In contrast, Cybersecurity is the notable laggard, down -3.14% week-to-date. Crypto / Digital Assets inched higher by 1.28% for the week. The theme landscape mirrors sector rotation, with cyclical momentum expanding against defensives.
Sigma Board
−3σ0+3σ
Momentum - LowVol w1spread · +4.48% · 252d · n=252+1.33σ
% above SMA200breadth · 67.27 · 60d · n=60+1.07σ
Adv/Dec ratiobreadth · 1.94 · 60d · n=60+0.95σ
Credit w1spread · +0.42% · 252d · n=252+0.83σ
Duration w1spread · -1.04% · 252d · n=252-0.81σ
Semis - Market w1spread · +3.82% · 252d · n=252+0.77σ
Growth - Value w1spread · +0.55% · 60d · n=60+0.57σ
Extended Momentum Risk d1basket · +0.62% · 60d · n=36+0.53σ
The sigma board highlights bifurcated performance across volatility regimes. Extended Overbought Momentum adds +2.52% week-to-date and has surged 16.17% month-to-date, while Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch bleeds another -2.66% this week, deepening its monthly drawdown to -16.82%. High-Vol Momentum sits nearly flat intraday but is down -0.91% week-to-date, contrasting with the more benign -0.34% weekly decline in Base Building / Coiled. Low-Vol Uptrend posts a modest -0.43% week-to-date.
Factor × Sector Map
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn3
Health Care
+1.7%1D
ID+1.7%WTD+0.5%MTD+2.6%
Extended Momentum Riskn8
Energy
+1.5%1D
ID+2.0%WTD+5.0%MTD+29.0%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn7
Energy
+1.3%1D
ID+1.5%WTD+6.0%MTD+14.6%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Materials
+1.2%1D
ID+1.2%WTD+2.3%MTD-13.2%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn8
Industrials
+1.0%1D
ID+1.6%WTD+1.7%MTD+7.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn31
Information Technology
+0.6%1D
ID+1.1%WTD-1.1%MTD-2.2%
Neutral / Transitionn18
Energy
+0.5%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+3.3%MTD+5.2%
Neutral / Transitionn103
Information Technology
+0.5%1D
ID+0.7%WTD+3.2%MTD-7.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn32
Industrials
+0.5%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+0.1%MTD-6.7%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn6
Information Technology
+0.4%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+2.5%MTD+6.0%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn9
Information Technology
+0.4%1D
ID+0.7%WTD-4.6%MTD+2.3%
Unclassified / Insufficient Datan3
Information Technology
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.3%MTD-5.5%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn14
Health Care
+0.3%1D
ID+0.6%WTD-2.4%MTD-2.5%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn6
Information Technology
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD-5.7%MTD-19.1%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn14
Communication Services
+0.3%1D
ID+0.4%WTD-1.7%MTD-1.2%
Neutral / Transitionn22
Materials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+1.2%MTD-2.0%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn4
Communication Services
+0.2%1D
ID+1.0%WTD-1.8%MTD+5.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn22
Financials
+0.2%1D
ID+0.4%WTD-0.7%MTD+7.3%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn12
Real Estate
+0.2%1D
ID+0.5%WTD-1.2%MTD+3.8%
Neutral / Transitionn66
Financials
+0.2%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+0.2%MTD+1.8%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn27
Financials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.3%WTD-0.7%MTD+3.4%
Neutral / Transitionn112
Industrials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+1.0%MTD-5.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn18
Financials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD-1.6%MTD+1.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn28
Health Care
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD-0.6%MTD+2.8%
Neutral / Transitionn52
Health Care
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD-2.0%MTD-0.8%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn20
Utilities
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+1.0%MTD+3.1%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn14
Industrials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+0.1%MTD+1.1%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn10
Real Estate
+0.0%1D
ID+0.1%WTD-2.6%MTD+0.1%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn5
Consumer Discretionary
+0.0%1D
ID+0.1%WTD-1.1%MTD+8.9%
Neutral / Transitionn26
Real Estate
+0.0%1D
ID+0.2%WTD-1.7%MTD-0.0%
Neutral / Transitionn30
Consumer Staples
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD-0.7%MTD+1.0%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn6
Industrials
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD-2.6%MTD-17.7%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn6
Information Technology
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD-3.0%MTD+0.3%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn10
Financials
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD-0.4%MTD+5.6%
Neutral / Transitionn21
Utilities
-0.0%1D
ID-0.1%WTD+1.7%MTD-0.5%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn10
Consumer Staples
-0.1%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-1.8%MTD-0.2%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn16
Real Estate
-0.1%1D
ID-0.2%WTD-1.0%MTD+4.5%
Neutral / Transitionn66
Consumer Discretionary
-0.1%1D
ID-0.3%WTD-0.3%MTD-0.4%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn10
Materials
-0.1%1D
ID-0.2%WTD+3.1%MTD-3.0%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn4
Consumer Discretionary
-0.2%1D
ID-0.2%WTD-0.4%MTD+7.5%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn3
Consumer Staples
-0.2%1D
ID-0.3%WTD+1.6%MTD+4.6%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn7
Health Care
-0.3%1D
ID-0.5%WTD+0.1%MTD+1.9%
Neutral / Transitionn23
Communication Services
-0.3%1D
ID-0.7%WTD-2.5%MTD-0.5%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn17
Health Care
-0.8%1D
ID-1.3%WTD-1.1%MTD+1.3%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn26
Consumer Discretionary
-0.8%1D
ID-1.2%WTD-3.3%MTD-6.1%
Where each factor basket is working by sector — sorted by 1-day equal-weight return, ≥3 names per cell.
Regime Assessment
trend+0.25
breadth+1.10
volatility+1.50
rotation+0.65
size-0.20
style+1.25
p(stay 1d)0.87
p(persist 5d)0.55
expected dwell7.7 td
samplen=506
Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — size positions to the risk state, don't chase the label. Transition is empirical; a label change needs two-run confirmation.
The current regime is classified as Choppy Neutral with a confidence of 0.87 and a composite score of 0.73. The one-day persistence probability is 0.87, and the five-day persistence probability is 0.55, with an expected dwell of 7.7 days. The regime began four days ago. Component drivers include a volatility score of 1.5, style at 1.25, breadth at 1.1, and rotation at 0.65, while trend (0.25) and size (-0.2) provide limited support.
Size and Breadth
| Size bucket | N | Intraday | D1 | WTD | Breadth |
|---|
| Large (>=5B) | 1004 | +0.31% | +0.16% | +0.06% | 56.6% adv |
| Micro Cap $250M-$1B | 201 | n/a | +0.00% | -0.09% | 0.0% adv |
| Nano Cap <$250M | 15 | n/a | +0.00% | -3.71% | 0.0% adv |
| Small Cap $1B-$5B | 807 | n/a | +0.00% | -0.97% | 0.0% adv |
| % > SMA50 | % > SMA200 | Advancers | Decliners | % Baskets Positive |
|---|
| 62.6% | 67.3% | 291 | 150 | 85.1% |
Large-cap stocks ($5B+) are posting a d1 return of 0.16% and a wtd return of 0.06%, while the mtd figure stands at -0.85%. Despite the short-term stall, the ytd gain is 18.18%. Breadth metrics show 62.65% of names above their 50-day moving average and 67.27% above the 200-day, with an advance-decline ratio of 291 to 150 and 85.11% of baskets positive. Micro-cap stocks ($250M-$1B) are flat on the day with d1 at 0.0% and wtd at -0.09%, but they carry a ytd gain of 13.44%.
Cross-Sectional Dispersion
| Cross-section | Dispersion σ | IQR | z60 | z252 | State | Widest up / down |
|---|
| Styles | +0.36% | +0.50% | -1.26 (n=60) | -0.73 (n=252) | Compressed | SPLV +0.62% / VUG -0.52% |
| Sectors | +0.99% | +1.25% | -0.35 (n=60) | 0.30 (n=252) | Normal | XLU +2.25% / XLC -0.75% |
Volume and Participation
The premarket volume scan returns no basket-level anomalies and no participation data. Given that less than 1% of a typical full-day volume prints by 07:00 ET, relative volume is structurally meaningless before the open; no actionable signals emerge from the volume module at this time.
Cross-Asset Confirmation
CAC -0.25 — mixed (positive = risk-supportive)
| Signal | 5d | Points |
|---|
| Credit (HYG−LQD) | +0.49% | +0.30 |
| Risk vs defensives | -1.41% | -0.40 |
| Dollar (−UUP) | -0.71% | -0.15 |
| Curve (IEF/TLT) | +0.23% | +0.00 |
Duration-in-disguise — 63d TLT beta of style spreads
| Spread | TLT β | β · SPY-ctrl | | β | %ile | Duration read |
|---|
| Momentum - LowVol | 1.30 | 0.21 | 98% | duration-driven (current, unstable) |
| Growth - Value | 0.17 | -0.24 | 68% | factor-driven (current, unstable) |
| HighBeta - LowVol | 1.45 | 0.05 | 99% | duration-driven (current, unstable) |
| Small - Large | 0.61 | 0.65 | 97% | duration-driven (persistent) |
Opportunity Watchlist
| Ticker | Sector | Opportunity | Wave stage | Regime fit |
|---|
| UEC | Energy | 92.4 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 96.2 |
| EPRT | Real Estate | 88.4 | Wave 3-5 / breakout | 95.4 |
| CELH | Consumer Staples | 92.5 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 94.3 |
| CMCSA | Communication Services | 92.4 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 94.2 |
| SFM | Consumer Staples | 88.3 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 92.4 |
| Ticker | Since close | Vs basket | Read |
|---|
| UEC | +1.04% | +0.81% | confirms |
| EPRT | n/a | n/a | diverges |
| CELH | -0.20% | -0.43% | diverges |
| CMCSA | +2.13% | +1.90% | confirms |
| SFM | +0.03% | -0.29% | confirms |
The top screener opportunities include UEC (Energy, score 92.4, wave 1 accumulation, regime fit 96.2) and CELH (Consumer Staples, score 92.5, wave 1 accumulation, fitness 94.3). CMCSA (Communication Services) scores 92.4 with a fitness of 94.2. Intraday confirmation shows UEC up 1.038% since the close and CMCSA up 2.1259%, while CELH declined 0.2048%. Among pattern-based setups, DKNG presents a donchian breakdown short with a score of 73.49, and RIOT a double top short at 73.24.
Multi-Horizon Context
| Basket | D3 | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD |
|---|
| production: Broken Momentum / Avoid | -0.40% | -1.16% | -3.08% | -3.08% | -17.56% |
| production: Extended Momentum Risk | +2.37% | +2.74% | +19.39% | +19.39% | +59.47% |
| production: Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation | +1.48% | +0.87% | +5.58% | +5.58% | +28.96% |
| production: Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend | +0.34% | -0.18% | +3.01% | +3.01% | +14.86% |
| production: Neutral / Transition | +1.09% | +0.62% | -2.38% | -2.38% | +23.30% |
| production: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -1.36% | -2.66% | -16.82% | -16.82% | -9.93% |
| production: Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout | +0.12% | -1.42% | +2.38% | +2.38% | +75.72% |
| production: Thematic Momentum Leadership | +0.58% | -0.37% | +5.21% | +5.21% | +31.90% |
| production: Unclassified / Insufficient Data | -0.09% | -1.13% | -5.87% | -5.87% | +33.96% |
| theme: AI Infrastructure | +0.79% | +0.44% | -4.20% | -4.20% | +21.55% |
| theme: Cloud Software | -2.41% | -2.72% | -0.73% | -0.73% | +11.67% |
| theme: Commodities / Materials | +3.92% | +2.85% | -3.68% | -3.68% | +10.38% |
| theme: Consumer / Retail | -0.38% | -1.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +8.01% |
| theme: Crypto / Digital Assets | +0.85% | +1.28% | +1.78% | +1.78% | +14.16% |
| theme: Cybersecurity | -2.93% | -3.14% | -1.33% | -1.33% | +11.16% |
| theme: Defense / Aerospace | +2.87% | +2.15% | -7.37% | -7.37% | +26.05% |
| theme: Energy Transition | +2.42% | +1.78% | -4.99% | -4.99% | +23.15% |
| theme: Financials / Credit | -0.89% | -1.68% | +0.69% | +0.69% | +11.93% |
| theme: Healthcare / Biotech | +0.75% | -0.95% | -0.86% | -0.86% | +23.10% |
| theme: Housing / Real Estate | -0.15% | -1.14% | -1.27% | -1.27% | +11.17% |
| theme: Industrial Automation | +1.57% | +0.85% | -3.44% | -3.44% | +23.16% |
| theme: Macro Rates / Inflation | +0.96% | +0.17% | -0.71% | -0.71% | +15.66% |
| theme: Oil & Gas | +1.74% | +1.43% | +1.40% | +1.40% | +21.53% |
| theme: Semiconductors | +3.40% | +3.00% | -8.48% | -8.48% | +53.99% |
| sector: Communication Services | -1.68% | -2.15% | -0.69% | -0.69% | -6.13% |
| sector: Consumer Discretionary | -0.13% | -1.17% | -1.05% | -1.05% | +5.83% |
| sector: Consumer Staples | -0.35% | -0.66% | +1.80% | +1.80% | +7.04% |
| sector: Energy | +3.70% | +3.87% | +11.07% | +11.07% | +41.61% |
| sector: Financials | -0.18% | -0.36% | +3.15% | +3.15% | +9.40% |
| sector: Health Care | +0.05% | -1.44% | +0.01% | +0.01% | +25.50% |
| sector: Industrials | +1.72% | +0.73% | -4.49% | -4.49% | +19.28% |
| sector: Information Technology | +1.09% | +1.34% | -5.79% | -5.79% | +37.31% |
| sector: Materials | +3.16% | +1.98% | -3.09% | -3.09% | +14.21% |
| sector: Real Estate | -0.66% | -1.48% | +2.05% | +2.05% | +11.68% |
| sector: Utilities | +1.96% | +1.45% | +0.70% | +0.70% | +7.95% |
| size: Large (>=5B) | +0.67% | +0.06% | -0.85% | -0.85% | +18.18% |
| size: Micro Cap $250M-$1B | +1.26% | -0.09% | -2.21% | -2.21% | +13.44% |
| size: Nano Cap <$250M | -1.05% | -3.71% | +14.18% | +14.18% | +34.50% |
| size: Small Cap $1B-$5B | -0.05% | -0.97% | -1.23% | -1.23% | +19.72% |
| style: Base Building / Coiled | +0.23% | -0.34% | -1.70% | -1.70% | +16.06% |
| style: Extended Overbought Momentum | +1.83% | +2.52% | +16.17% | +16.17% | +47.92% |
| style: High-Vol Breakdown | +1.33% | +0.57% | -9.41% | -9.41% | -20.81% |
| style: High-Vol Momentum | +0.21% | -0.91% | +4.98% | +4.98% | +79.85% |
| style: Low-Vol Uptrend | +0.19% | -0.43% | +2.78% | +2.78% | +16.02% |
| style: Momentum Breakout / Leadership | +0.91% | +0.22% | +10.85% | +10.85% | +40.73% |
| style: Neutral / Transition | +0.83% | +0.34% | -2.24% | -2.24% | +23.83% |
| style: Normal Vol/Trend | +1.34% | +0.80% | -1.00% | -1.00% | +23.81% |
| style: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -1.36% | -2.66% | -16.82% | -16.82% | -9.93% |
| style: Persistent Uptrend / Compounder | +1.38% | +0.60% | +3.26% | +3.26% | +29.19% |
| style: Weak Downtrend / Avoid Momentum | -0.40% | -1.16% | -3.08% | -3.08% | -17.56% |
Examining the large-cap cohort across multiple horizons, the d1 return is 0.16%, wtd is 0.06%, mtd is -0.85%, and ytd is 18.18%. The quarter-to-date return mirrors the month at -0.85%. The year-over-year return stands at 32.10% and the two-year at 53.65%, indicating strong longer-term momentum. The shorter-term flattening contrasts with robust annual gains, with 67.27% of constituents above their 200-day moving average.
Top Single-Stock Setups (4h–1 Week)
#1CROXConsumer Discretionary100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.8/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 631w +2.1%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$136.20
RSI63
1wk+2.1%
ATR stop−5.1%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+11%
#2TPLEnergy100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.1/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 611w +6.1%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$433.10
RSI62
1wk+6.1%
ATR stop−6.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+11%
#3OHIReal Estate100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.3/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 641w +5.5%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$50.61
RSI64
1wk+5.5%
ATR stop−3.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+11%
#4SJMConsumer Staples100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.7/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 621w +8.3%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$118.05
RSI62
1wk+8.3%
ATR stop−4.1%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+11%
#5SEICFinancials98
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.4/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 641w +0.6%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$98.75
RSI64
1wk+0.6%
ATR stop−3.4%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+11%
Long-only opportunity lens: names where the factor basket and the technical state agree over a 4-hour-to-1-week window. Confluence score, not a price target — size to the ATR stop and treat every setup as a probability, not a promise.
Long-only confluence screen: the factor engine's basket and the technical state pointing the same way over a 4-hour-to-1-week window.
Data Quality and Coverage
| Source | As of |
|---|
| intraday_bars | 2026-07-23T06:45:00-04:00 |
| warehouse_snapshot | 2026-07-23 |
| proxy_daily | 2026-07-22 |
| screener_artifact | 2026-07-22T20:54:46.778582-04:00 |
| grouped_daily | unavailable |
- Overall coverage: 51.2%
- Degraded baskets: theme:Healthcare / Biotech
- Missing archived report days: 2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07
- Warning: premarket rvol suppressed: <1% of a day's volume prints by 07:00 ET, so relative volume is structurally meaningless before the open
- Warning: thin production basket: Unclassified / Insufficient Data n_members=8 (<10); exclude from broad leadership claims
- Report generated at 2026-07-23T07:01:31-04:00; every figure above is computed deterministically from report.json