Cloud Software+0.7%1D
258 names · 79% covaggregate only
ID+1.2%WTD-3.6%MTD-1.5%YTD+10.2%
Midday · market state
Choppy Neutral
BeganThu Jul 23 · premarket · 07:00 ETheld 1 td
Typical dwell~7.7 tdp(stay 1d) 0.87 · fresh
Implied through~Tue Aug 4~7 td left
When it breaks, historically →→ Constructive Rotation 52%→ Distribution Risk 29%→ Risk-Off Stress 10%→ Risk-On Trend 8%
1td in — ~7td of typical dwell leftfresh
age 1tdtypical dwell ~8td
SPY +0.42% since prior close; Thematic Momentum Leadership leads (+0.88%), Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout lags (-0.14%).
Risk-STATE gauge — monotone in forward volatility, not direction. Size to the state; don't chase the label.
Regime Tilts — What Moves With This Tape
Today's tape tracks this regime's historical tilt on 2/4 cells · biggest divergence: SMH -2.3% rel vs a +12bp/d historical tilt.
Relative to SPY, bp/day with hit rates; n≈506 days per cell · empirical rel-SPY tilts, 2021-07-26..2026-07-22, labels=v1.1+2-run, min-n 60, refit annually. Same-day = state description; next-day = tradeable lean (reversion-flavored at the extremes).
Intelligence Summary
Session
Midday markets sit in a Choppy Neutral regime with a composite score of 0.3625, slipping from 0.45 at the morning run, as the volatility component weakened by 0.5 points. Breadth remains supportive: 63.49% of names are above their 50-day moving average, 67.8% above the 200-day, and the advance-decline ratio is 2.25. Real Estate leads sectors at +1.55%, while Semiconductors lag at −0.92%. Volume anomalies highlight THC, which surged 17.51% on 6.7x relative volume, indicating a breakout. The regime is fresh, having started on July 23 premarket, with an expected dwell of 7.7 trading days and 6.7 days remaining.
Factors
Factor baskets are broadly higher. Thematic Momentum Leadership leads at +0.88% on 0.69x median relative volume with 77.27% breadth. Broken Momentum / Avoid adds 0.87% on 72.94% advancing issues, while Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation rises 0.63%. Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend gains 0.72%. Only Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout is negative, down 0.14% on thin volume. Elevated volume appears in Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch (1.13x rvol) and Extended Momentum Risk (1.03x), but both post modest gains of 0.36% and 0.27% respectively, indicating low-conviction repositioning.
Sectors
Rate-sensitive and defensive sectors pace the advance. Real Estate jumps 1.55% on 92.42% advancing members, though it remains down 0.68% week-to-date. Consumer Discretionary adds 1.27%, and Communication Services gains 0.92%. Information Technology lags at −0.12%, while Utilities slip 0.08%. Month-to-date leader Energy is flat intraday at +0.08% but up 10.36%. Financials (+0.76%) and Health Care (+0.41%) contribute. The intraday strength in beaten-down groups, against a backdrop of weekly losses, points to tactical rotation rather than conviction.
Connections
- Momentum - LowVol d1 is stretched at -1.5σ — mean-reversion pressure. Sigma Board →
- Sharpest cell: Neutral / Transition × Real Estate +2.0% (n25) vs Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch × Materials -2.0% (n3) — long/short the spread, not the index. Factor × Sector →
- Rotation spread: Real Estate +1.6% over Information Technology -0.1% (1.7pp). Sector Rotation →
Session Snapshot
CAC -0.10mixed
−risk-off0+risk-on
Equitiesbroad index tape · 7/8 adv
+0.41%med
Rates & Creditduration + credit spread · 12/12 adv
+0.13%med
Commodities & FXgold · oil · the dollar · 2/5 adv
-0.04%med
Globalint'l / EM equity · 10/15 adv
+0.35%med
US Benchmarks8
Rates & Credit12
Global15FLIN +1.2% · EWY -5.0%
Style & Factor11
Sectors11
Industry Themes11XHB +1.7% · DRAM -7.0%
Bellwether Singles22AAPL +3.5% · NBIS -8.8%
VIX is not carried on the board (no tradeable-feed source); the Regime volatility component and Sigma Board carry the vol read.
SPY+0.42%gap +0.04% · open +0.37%
Best factor+0.88%Thematic Momentum Leadership
Worst factor-0.14%Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout
Breadth79%baskets +ve · A/D 689/306
Up/Down Vol1.15xvolume in advancers vs decliners
Actionable Trading Ideas
0 of 4 playbooks triggered this run. Absence of a triggered edge is a position — no forced trade.
Nearest miss: down-gap fade — worst proxy gap -1.0% (needs <= -1.0%); large-cap capitulation — worst 5-day drop -6.4% (needs <= -10.0%).
Down-gap fade into the closeThree down days in an uptrendRSI(14) < 30 pullback in an uptrendFive-day capitulation in large caps
Stats are fixed-horizon, no-stop, from the quarterly-refit offline backtest; t is naive (per-name non-overlap only) — read it as a screen and weight the per-year sign consistency, not as proof of significance.
Intraday Factor Moves
LeadingThematic Momentum Leadership +0.9%Broken Momentum / Avoid +0.9%Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend +0.7%
LaggingSmaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout -0.1%Extended Momentum Risk +0.3%Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch +0.4%
Top-to-bottom basket spread 1.0pp today · dispersion Sectors z60 +2.0 (wide), Styles z60 -0.2 (typical) · flow confirms 1/3 leaders.
Unclassified / Insufficient Data thin — n<108 names · 100% covz +0.6+1.21%
ID+1.2%
1D+1.2%
3D-1.6%
1W-0.3%
MTD-5.1%
1M-0.1%
3M+9.3%
YTD+34.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadership88 names · 100% covz +0.7+0.88%
ID+0.9%
1D+0.9%
3D+0.3%
1W+0.5%
MTD+5.9%
1M+8.5%
3M+25.7%
YTD+31.2%
1Y+42.8%
2Y+66.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoid170 names · 100% covz +1.1+0.87%
ID+0.9%
1D+0.9%
3D-0.7%
1W-1.3%
MTD-2.4%
1M-2.4%
3M-14.3%
YTD-16.9%
1Y-14.4%
2Y+18.4%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend83 names · 98% covz +0.8+0.72%
ID+0.7%
1D+0.7%
3D+1.4%
1W+0.9%
MTD+3.4%
1M+4.0%
3M+5.9%
YTD+16.5%
1Y+21.5%
2Y+30.4%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation33 names · 100% covz +0.4+0.63%
ID+0.6%
1D+0.6%
3D+1.8%
1W+2.1%
MTD+6.6%
1M+9.3%
3M+23.0%
YTD+35.0%
1Y+46.3%
2Y+72.2%
Neutral / Transition513 names · 100% covz +0.3+0.45%
ID+0.5%
1D+0.5%
3D-0.2%
1W+0.2%
MTD-2.4%
1M-0.7%
3M+7.0%
YTD+22.4%
1Y+37.1%
2Y+57.8%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch46 names · 98% covz +0.6+0.36%
ID+0.4%
1D+0.4%
3D-4.8%
1W-5.7%
MTD-13.9%
1M-14.1%
3M-17.6%
YTD-15.0%
1Y-1.8%
2Y+33.4%
Extended Momentum Risk29 names · 100% covz -0.1+0.27%
ID+0.3%
1D+0.3%
3D+4.2%
1W+4.6%
MTD+15.9%
1M+19.9%
3M+24.9%
YTD+45.8%
1Y+49.0%
2Y+52.5%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout35 names · 100% covz -0.6-0.14%
ID-0.1%
1D-0.1%
3D-0.7%
1W-0.4%
MTD+3.5%
1M+11.9%
3M+51.4%
YTD+82.8%
1Y+141.2%
2Y+127.1%
z = today's move vs the basket's own trailing 60-session daily distribution (current membership; partial-day moves on intraday editions). |z| ≥ 2 highlighted.
Sector Rotation
Real Estate+1.55%
Consumer Discretionary+1.27%
Communication Services+0.92%
Financials+0.76%
Materials+0.73%
Consumer Staples+0.72%
Industrials+0.46%
Health Care+0.41%
Energy+0.08%
Utilities-0.08%
Information Technology-0.12%
Themes and Keyword Baskets
Housing / Real Estate+0.7%1D
439 names · 70% cov
ID+1.3%WTD-0.1%MTD-0.1%YTD+11.2%
Cybersecurity+0.7%1D
94 names · 70% covaggregate only
ID+1.2%WTD-3.8%MTD-2.0%YTD+10.0%
Consumer / Retail+0.5%1D
467 names · 75% cov
ID+0.9%WTD-1.1%MTD-0.1%YTD+7.0%
Financials / Credit+0.5%1D
646 names · 63% cov
ID+1.0%WTD-2.1%MTD+0.3%YTD+11.5%
Macro Rates / Inflation+0.5%1D
506 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+0.8%WTD-0.7%MTD-1.5%YTD+14.6%
Industrial Automation+0.2%1D
494 names · 76% covaggregate only
ID+0.4%WTD+0.1%MTD-4.0%YTD+21.9%
AI Infrastructure+0.1%1D
838 names · 80% covaggregate only
ID+0.2%WTD-0.1%MTD-4.5%YTD+20.0%
Defense / Aerospace+0.1%1D
202 names · 79% cov
ID+0.2%WTD+2.2%MTD-7.1%YTD+26.2%
Commodities / Materials+0.1%1D
161 names · 73% cov
ID+0.2%WTD+2.1%MTD-4.0%YTD+9.8%
Oil & Gas+0.1%1D
269 names · 84% cov
ID+0.2%WTD+0.4%MTD+0.5%YTD+20.1%
Healthcare / Biotech degraded+0.1%1D
673 names · 58% cov
ID+0.2%WTD-0.9%MTD-0.8%YTD+23.0%
Crypto / Digital Assets-0.0%1D
150 names · 69% covaggregate only
ID-0.0%WTD-0.5%MTD+0.2%YTD+12.4%
Energy Transition-0.1%1D
240 names · 81% cov
ID-0.1%WTD+0.5%MTD-5.9%YTD+21.3%
Semiconductors-0.6%1D
188 names · 89% cov
ID-0.9%WTD+0.9%MTD-10.0%YTD+50.1%
Housing / Real Estate leads themes intraday with a 1.27% gain on 83.23% breadth, yet it is essentially flat for the week (−0.13%). Cloud Software (+1.23%) and Cybersecurity (+1.21%) also rally, but they carry week-to-date losses of 3.56% and 3.82%. Semiconductors stand out as the clear laggard, down 0.92% intraday and 10.04% month-to-date. AI Infrastructure is only +0.22%, pausing after recent momentum. The day's action appears to be a relief bounce in oversold areas rather than a durable thematic shift.
Sigma Board
−3σ0+3σ
Momentum - LowVol d1spread · -2.20% · 252d · n=252-1.50σ
Semis - Market d1spread · -2.30% · 252d · n=252-1.42σ
Adv/Dec ratiobreadth · 2.25 · 60d · n=60+1.38σ
Credit w1spread · +0.59% · 252d · n=252+1.16σ
Growth - Value d1spread · -1.07% · 252d · n=252-1.14σ
% above SMA200breadth · 67.80 · 60d · n=60+1.14σ
Duration w1spread · -1.24% · 252d · n=252-0.96σ
HighBeta - LowVol d1spread · -1.52% · 252d · n=252-0.90σ
Intraday spread moves reveal a defensive tilt. Momentum minus Low Vol is down 2.2 percentage points, High Beta minus Low Vol is off 1.5 points, and Growth over Value trails by 1.1 points. Semis underperform the market by 2.3 points. Credit spreads are marginally tighter (−0.10), while Duration gains 0.37. Regime tilts assign same-day premiums to SMH (+12 bp) and QQQ (+3 bp) versus SPY, but actual price action disagrees, as low-volatility and defensive factors outperform. The divergence suggests near-term caution despite the tilt signals.
Factor × Sector Map
Neutral / Transitionn25
Real Estate
+2.0%1D
ID+2.0%WTD+0.1%MTD+1.9%
Unclassified / Insufficient Datan3
Information Technology
+1.8%1D
ID+1.8%WTD+0.1%MTD-5.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn31
Consumer Discretionary
+1.7%1D
ID+1.7%WTD-1.8%MTD-3.5%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn12
Real Estate
+1.5%1D
ID+1.5%WTD-0.6%MTD+3.9%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn17
Financials
+1.5%1D
ID+1.5%WTD+0.1%MTD+7.6%
Neutral / Transitionn20
Materials
+1.4%1D
ID+1.4%WTD+3.1%MTD-0.3%
Neutral / Transitionn54
Consumer Discretionary
+1.4%1D
ID+1.4%WTD-0.3%MTD-1.0%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn8
Information Technology
+1.4%1D
ID+1.4%WTD-4.7%MTD+3.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn11
Communication Services
+1.3%1D
ID+1.3%WTD-6.3%MTD-7.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn32
Information Technology
+1.3%1D
ID+1.3%WTD-2.2%MTD-1.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn10
Real Estate
+1.2%1D
ID+1.2%WTD-3.0%MTD-0.6%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn17
Financials
+1.1%1D
ID+1.1%WTD+1.2%MTD+4.8%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn8
Consumer Discretionary
+1.1%1D
ID+1.1%WTD-0.1%MTD+7.6%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn17
Real Estate
+1.1%1D
ID+1.1%WTD-0.9%MTD+4.6%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn6
Health Care
+1.0%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+2.4%MTD+4.1%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn7
Information Technology
+1.0%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+2.3%MTD+5.3%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn10
Consumer Staples
+1.0%1D
ID+1.0%WTD-1.7%MTD+0.0%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn14
Industrials
+1.0%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+1.6%MTD+3.1%
Neutral / Transitionn18
Communication Services
+0.9%1D
ID+0.9%WTD-2.9%MTD+0.2%
Neutral / Transitionn28
Consumer Staples
+0.9%1D
ID+0.9%WTD-1.8%MTD-0.6%
Extended Momentum Riskn8
Industrials
+0.9%1D
ID+0.9%WTD+5.1%MTD+12.9%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn6
Financials
+0.8%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+1.2%MTD+7.5%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn9
Information Technology
+0.8%1D
ID+0.8%WTD-5.3%MTD-16.0%
Neutral / Transitionn83
Financials
+0.7%1D
ID+0.7%WTD-0.8%MTD+2.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn12
Materials
+0.6%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.9%MTD-2.1%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn3
Industrials
+0.6%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+8.8%MTD+4.6%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn12
Communication Services
+0.6%1D
ID+0.6%WTD-3.4%MTD-1.5%
Neutral / Transitionn51
Health Care
+0.6%1D
ID+0.6%WTD-1.7%MTD-0.3%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn28
Industrials
+0.5%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+0.8%MTD-6.1%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn9
Industrials
+0.4%1D
ID+0.4%WTD-4.4%MTD-17.8%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn5
Energy
+0.4%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+5.8%MTD+17.2%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn5
Consumer Discretionary
+0.4%1D
ID+0.4%WTD-0.4%MTD+9.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn29
Health Care
+0.4%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+0.8%MTD+3.8%
Neutral / Transitionn105
Industrials
+0.4%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+1.3%MTD-5.1%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn19
Financials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD-1.3%MTD+1.1%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn9
Industrials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+3.8%MTD+6.1%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn25
Utilities
+0.2%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+1.5%MTD+2.7%
Neutral / Transitionn16
Energy
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+2.8%MTD+4.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn12
Health Care
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD-1.4%MTD-2.1%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn19
Health Care
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.4%MTD+3.2%
Neutral / Transitionn15
Utilities
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+2.6%MTD-0.0%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn5
Consumer Staples
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD+1.1%MTD+7.7%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn3
Energy
-0.3%1D
ID-0.3%WTD-0.4%MTD+15.1%
Extended Momentum Riskn7
Energy
-0.5%1D
ID-0.5%WTD+4.2%MTD+22.1%
Extended Momentum Riskn6
Health Care
-0.6%1D
ID-0.6%WTD+5.7%MTD+10.0%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn4
Energy
-0.7%1D
ID-0.7%WTD+0.9%MTD+0.4%
Neutral / Transitionn98
Information Technology
-0.9%1D
ID-0.9%WTD+0.7%MTD-9.4%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn8
Information Technology
-0.9%1D
ID-0.9%WTD-2.2%MTD-3.6%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn6
Consumer Discretionary
-0.9%1D
ID-0.9%WTD-10.7%MTD-13.2%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Materials
-2.0%1D
ID-2.0%WTD-2.5%MTD-17.3%
Regime Assessment
13 days · 55 runs · 6 published flips · raw≠published on 7 runs · raw label unavailable before Jul 10
Risk-Off Stress
Distribution Risk
Choppy Neutral
Constructive Rotation
Risk-On Trend
-0.70-0.15+0.55+0.90Jul 8Jul 13Jul 16Jul 21Jul 24
8 expected runs missing in window
Choppy NeutralConstructive RotationChoppy Neutral
published label · 2-run confirmation applied
Composite vs label bands, trailing month, all 5 editions/day. Ring = raw label disagreed with the published (confirmation-lag pressure). Y clamped to ±1.3.
trend+0.25
breadth+1.10
volatility+1.00
rotation-0.10
size-0.90
style+0.50
p(stay 1d)0.87
p(persist 5d)0.55
expected dwell7.7 td
samplen=506
Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — size positions to the risk state, don't chase the label. Transition is empirical; a label change needs two-run confirmation.
The regime is Choppy Neutral with a composite score of 0.3625 and 0.87 confidence. This state historically precedes elevated volatility and frequent drawdowns, driven by conflicting signals: strong breadth (1.1) and moderate volatility (1.0) clash with negative size effects (-0.9) and a flattish rotation score (-0.1). The regime just initiated on July 23 and has an expected dwell of 7.7 trading days, with a 52.5% probability of exiting to Constructive Rotation. Intraday tilts favor semiconductors (SMH +12.2 bps) and gold (GLD +16.8 bps) relative to SPY, while defensives like low-vol and staples lag.
Top Single-Stock Setups (4h–1 Week)
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.3/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 601w +7.7%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$199.84
RSI60
1wk+7.7%
ATR stop−5.9%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+12%
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.2/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 591w +5.8%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$875.25
RSI60
1wk+5.8%
ATR stop−5.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+12%
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout · factor score 7.9/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 621w +4.0%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$622.75
RSI63
1wk+4.0%
ATR stop−5.0%
1-week return vs Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout basket (n=35)
-12%+23%
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.5/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 651w +2.2%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$50.97
RSI66
1wk+2.2%
ATR stop−2.9%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+12%
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 8.0/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 581w -0.3%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$17.28
RSI59
1wk-0.3%
ATR stop−4.6%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+12%
Long-only opportunity lens: names where the factor basket and the technical state agree over a 4-hour-to-1-week window. Confluence score, not a price target — size to the ATR stop and treat every setup as a probability, not a promise.
Long-only confluence screen: the factor engine's basket and the technical state pointing the same way over a 4-hour-to-1-week window.Size and Breadth
| Size bucket | N | Intraday | D1 | WTD | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large (>=5B) | 1005 | +0.56% | +0.56% | -0.09% | 68.9% adv |
| Micro Cap $250M-$1B | 201 | n/a | +0.00% | -1.29% | 0.0% adv |
| Nano Cap <$250M | 15 | n/a | +0.00% | -3.85% | 0.0% adv |
| Small Cap $1B-$5B | 807 | +0.11% | +0.00% | -1.97% | 50.0% adv |
| % > SMA50 | % > SMA200 | Advancers | Decliners | % Baskets Positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63.5% | 67.8% | 689 | 306 | 78.7% |
Micro and small caps are underperforming large this week, with Micro Cap returning 0.0% today and down 2.35% over three days, while Large gained 0.56% on the session but is essentially flat week-to-date at -0.09%. Nano Cap shows extreme divergence, up 13.95% month-to-date but down 3.85% this week. Market breadth appears supportive with 63.49% of stocks above their 50-day moving average and 67.8% above the 200-day. The advance-decline ratio sits at 2.25, yet only 78.72% of baskets are positive, hinting at internal rotation beneath the surface.
Cross-Sectional Dispersion
| Cross-section | Dispersion σ | IQR | z60 | z252 | State | Widest up / down |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sectors | +1.91% | +1.65% | 2.04 (n=60) | 3.01 (n=252) | Wide | XLI +1.73% / XLY -4.61% |
| Styles | +0.87% | +0.86% | -0.16 (n=60) | 0.64 (n=252) | Normal | VTV +0.24% / VUG -2.22% |
Volume and Participation
| Dimension | Basket | Median RVol | % Members RVol>1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| production | Broken Momentum / Avoid | 0.81 | 8.8% |
| production | Extended Momentum Risk | 1.03 | 24.1% |
| production | Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation | 0.78 | 3.0% |
| production | Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend | 0.71 | 6.2% |
| production | Neutral / Transition | 0.71 | 9.4% |
| production | Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | 1.13 | 24.4% |
| production | Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout | 0.62 | 2.9% |
| production | Thematic Momentum Leadership | 0.69 | 6.8% |
| production | Unclassified / Insufficient Data | 0.87 | 0.0% |
| Ticker | Basket | RVol | Return | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| THC | Neutral / Transition | 6.70 | +17.51% | breakout volume |
| CHTR | Broken Momentum / Avoid | 5.55 | -3.74% | distribution volume |
| DLR | Neutral / Transition | 5.25 | +13.52% | breakout volume |
| MXL | Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout | 4.85 | -20.14% | distribution volume |
| SXT | Neutral / Transition | 4.67 | +5.07% | breakout volume |
Elevated relative volume is concentrated in riskier baskets: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch and Extended Momentum Risk show median rvol of 1.13 and 1.03, respectively, with around 24% of members above 1.5x average volume. In contrast, Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout and Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation exhibit subdued activity at 0.62 and 0.78. Anomaly detection highlights THC up 17.51% on 6.7x volume, DLR up 13.52% on 5.25x volume, while CHTR fell 3.74% on 5.55x distribution volume and MXL dropped 20.14% on 4.85x volume, signaling forceful repositioning in specific names.
Cross-Asset Confirmation
CAC -0.10 — mixed (positive = risk-supportive)
| Signal | 5d | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Credit (HYG−LQD) | +0.44% | +0.30 |
| Risk vs defensives | -1.95% | -0.40 |
| Dollar (−UUP) | -0.78% | -0.15 |
| Curve (IEF/TLT) | +0.31% | +0.15 |
Duration-in-disguise — 63d TLT beta of style spreads
| Spread | TLT β | β · SPY-ctrl | β | %ile | Duration read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum - LowVol | 1.28 | 0.22 | 98% | duration-driven (current, unstable) | ||
| Growth - Value | 0.16 | -0.24 | 68% | factor-driven (current, unstable) | ||
| HighBeta - LowVol | 1.44 | 0.06 | 98% | duration-driven (current, unstable) | ||
| Small - Large | 0.61 | 0.65 | 97% | duration-driven (persistent) |
Opportunity Watchlist
| Ticker | Sector | Opportunity | Wave stage | Regime fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEC | Energy | 89.5 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 92.4 |
| CMCSA | Communication Services | 89.9 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 92.0 |
| MP | Materials | 86.9 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 91.0 |
| TEM | Health Care | 85.4 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 88.3 |
| QXO | Industrials | 87.0 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 87.9 |
| Ticker | Since close | Vs basket | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| UEC | n/a | n/a | diverges |
| CMCSA | +1.35% | +0.99% | confirms |
| MP | -5.68% | -6.04% | diverges |
| TEM | -4.26% | -5.13% | diverges |
| QXO | -0.04% | -0.91% | diverges |
The top-ranked opportunity is CMCSA at 89.9, an Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch name in Wave 1 accumulation with a 92.0 regime fit, and it is confirmed by midday price action up 1.35% versus its basket's 0.99%. Other high-scoring ideas like UEC (89.5), MP (86.9), and TEM (85.4) lack intraday confirmation. Pattern-based setups lean heavily short, led by OKLO (bear flag, 76.72) and BLDR (head and shoulders, 75.44). The lone notable long pattern is FTDR at 68.74 on a double bottom, reflecting cautious positioning amid the choppy environment.
Multi-Horizon Context
| Basket | D3 | WTD | MTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| production: Broken Momentum / Avoid | -0.72% | -1.26% | -2.44% |
| production: Extended Momentum Risk | +4.22% | +4.57% | +15.91% |
| production: Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation | +1.77% | +2.13% | +6.60% |
| production: Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend | +1.42% | +0.86% | +3.38% |
| production: Neutral / Transition | -0.25% | +0.16% | -2.43% |
| production: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -4.80% | -5.73% | -13.88% |
| production: Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout | -0.68% | -0.42% | +3.49% |
| production: Thematic Momentum Leadership | +0.32% | +0.47% | +5.89% |
| production: Unclassified / Insufficient Data | -1.56% | -0.29% | -5.13% |
| theme: AI Infrastructure | -1.35% | -0.06% | -4.46% |
| theme: Cloud Software | -2.98% | -3.56% | -1.49% |
| theme: Commodities / Materials | +0.16% | +2.14% | -3.96% |
| theme: Consumer / Retail | -0.59% | -1.13% | -0.08% |
| theme: Crypto / Digital Assets | -2.03% | -0.46% | +0.20% |
| theme: Cybersecurity | -2.44% | -3.82% | -1.97% |
| theme: Defense / Aerospace | -0.21% | +2.25% | -7.10% |
| theme: Energy Transition | -1.11% | +0.45% | -5.94% |
| theme: Financials / Credit | -1.41% | -2.08% | +0.35% |
| theme: Healthcare / Biotech | -1.23% | -0.94% | -0.79% |
| theme: Housing / Real Estate | +0.57% | -0.13% | -0.09% |
| theme: Industrial Automation | -1.01% | +0.10% | -3.98% |
| theme: Macro Rates / Inflation | -1.07% | -0.69% | -1.47% |
| theme: Oil & Gas | -0.55% | +0.44% | +0.53% |
| theme: Semiconductors | -2.22% | +0.95% | -10.04% |
| sector: Communication Services | -2.76% | -3.76% | -2.30% |
| sector: Consumer Discretionary | -0.28% | -1.23% | -1.09% |
| sector: Consumer Staples | -1.07% | -1.96% | +0.41% |
| sector: Energy | +1.39% | +2.77% | +10.36% |
| sector: Financials | -0.31% | -0.46% | +3.10% |
| sector: Health Care | +0.07% | -0.20% | +1.40% |
| sector: Industrials | +1.32% | +1.46% | -3.60% |
| sector: Information Technology | -2.43% | -0.48% | -6.44% |
| sector: Materials | +1.71% | +1.97% | -2.49% |
| sector: Real Estate | +0.32% | -0.68% | +2.86% |
| sector: Utilities | +2.11% | +1.65% | +0.93% |
| size: Large (>=5B) | -0.17% | -0.09% | -0.73% |
| size: Micro Cap $250M-$1B | -2.35% | -1.29% | -3.39% |
| size: Nano Cap <$250M | -2.52% | -3.85% | +13.95% |
| size: Small Cap $1B-$5B | -2.08% | -1.97% | -2.21% |
| style: Base Building / Coiled | +0.40% | +0.15% | -0.59% |
| style: Extended Overbought Momentum | +5.99% | +6.06% | +16.74% |
| style: High-Vol Breakdown | -3.66% | -2.48% | -11.65% |
| style: High-Vol Momentum | -0.98% | -0.48% | +3.92% |
| style: Low-Vol Uptrend | +0.81% | +0.15% | +3.27% |
| style: Momentum Breakout / Leadership | +1.75% | +1.97% | +10.33% |
| style: Neutral / Transition | -0.38% | -0.04% | -2.11% |
| style: Normal Vol/Trend | -0.49% | +0.13% | -1.57% |
| style: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -4.80% | -5.73% | -13.88% |
| style: Persistent Uptrend / Compounder | +1.35% | +1.42% | +3.75% |
| style: Weak Downtrend / Avoid Momentum | -0.72% | -1.26% | -2.44% |
Over the trailing three days, Extended Momentum Risk leads with 4.22% while Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch is the worst at -4.8%. Week-to-date, Extended Momentum Risk again tops at 4.57% and Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch sinks 5.73%. Month-to-date, the same spread widens dramatically: Extended Momentum Risk up 15.91% versus Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch down 13.88%. High-vol breakdowns persist, with Momentum - LowVol spread at -10.13% MTD after a brief WTD bounce of 2.19%. Breadth trends across all horizons are deteriorating, signaling waning participation beneath the surface.
Data Quality and Coverage
| Source | As of |
|---|---|
| intraday_bars | 2026-07-24T12:45:00-04:00 |
| warehouse_snapshot | 2026-07-24 |
| proxy_daily | 2026-07-23 |
| screener_artifact | 2026-07-23T20:52:06.717792-04:00 |
| grouped_daily | unavailable |
- Overall coverage: 99.5%
- Degraded baskets: theme:Healthcare / Biotech
- Missing archived report days: 2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07
- Warning: thin production basket: Unclassified / Insufficient Data n_members=8 (<10); exclude from broad leadership claims
- Report generated at 2026-07-24T13:02:00-04:00; every figure above is computed deterministically from report.json