Cloud Software+0.2%1D
258 names · 79% covaggregate only
ID+0.6%WTD-4.0%MTD-2.1%YTD+9.9%
Premarket · market state
Choppy Neutral
BeganThu Jul 23 · premarket · 07:00 ETheld 1 td
Typical dwell~7.7 tdp(stay 1d) 0.87 · fresh
Implied through~Tue Aug 4~7 td left
When it breaks, historically →→ Constructive Rotation 52%→ Distribution Risk 29%→ Risk-Off Stress 10%→ Risk-On Trend 8%
1td in — ~7td of typical dwell leftfresh
age 1tdtypical dwell ~8td
SPY +0.27% since prior close; Broken Momentum / Avoid leads (+0.27%), Extended Momentum Risk lags (-0.32%).
Risk-STATE gauge — monotone in forward volatility, not direction. Size to the state; don't chase the label.
Regime Tilts — What Moves With This Tape
Relative to SPY, bp/day with hit rates; n≈506 days per cell · empirical rel-SPY tilts, 2021-07-26..2026-07-22, labels=v1.1+2-run, min-n 60, refit annually. Same-day = state description; next-day = tradeable lean (reversion-flavored at the extremes).
Intelligence Summary
Session
The premarket composite regime reading is Choppy Neutral at 0.535, up 0.145 from yesterday's close, with volatility (1.5) and style (1.25) components providing the largest positive signals while rotation (-0.6) drags. Breadth remains supportive at 58.4% above the 50-day moving average, an advance-decline ratio of 2.47, and 85.1% of baskets positive. The regime transition model sees a 52.5% probability of moving to Constructive Rotation, with 6.7 days expected in the current regime. Pre-market futures show small caps outperforming large by 0.15% and semiconductors trailing the market by -0.31%.
Factors
Factor moves this morning show strong intraday reversals. Broken Momentum / Avoid is up 0.54% with 84.7% of constituents advancing, while Extended Momentum Risk is down 0.66% with only 21.4% advancing. Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation adds 0.37% and Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend is flat at 0.06%. The Momentum Leadership minus Broken Momentum spread is -0.17%, indicating a rotation out of high-momentum leaders into beaten-down names. Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout is off 0.46%. Thematic Momentum Leadership is up 0.24% with 48.8% advancing, reflecting mixed participation.
Sectors
Sector rotation reveals a sharp intraday reversal: Energy falls 0.59% with only 8.3% advancing, despite a week-to-date gain of 2.32%, while Communication Services gains 0.47% after a wtd loss of 4.39%. Health Care adds 0.36% with 51.6% advancing and Information Technology rises 0.50% with 69.9% breadth. The theme leaders, Cybersecurity and Cloud Software, are up 0.64% and 0.60% intraday but remain significantly negative wtd at -4.28% and -4.04%, suggesting a low-conviction bounce within a broader risk-off rotation.
Connections
- Adv/Dec ratio is stretched at +1.7σ — mean-reversion pressure. Sigma Board →
- Sharpest cell: Thematic Momentum Leadership × Information Technology +0.8% (n8) vs Extended Momentum Risk × Energy -1.2% (n7) — long/short the spread, not the index. Factor × Sector →
- Rotation spread: Information Technology +0.3% over Energy -0.4% (0.7pp). Sector Rotation →
Session Snapshot
CAC -0.10mixed
−risk-off0+risk-on
Equitiesbroad index tape · 6/6 adv
+0.33%med
Rates & Creditduration + credit spread · 3/3 adv
+0.12%med
Commodities & FXgold · oil · the dollar · 3/5 adv
+0.23%med
Globalint'l / EM equity · 2/7 adv
-0.39%med
Rates & Credit12
Global15EWJ +0.5% · FLCH +0.0%
Style & Factor11
Sectors11
Industry Themes11IGV +1.1% · TAN +0.0%
Bellwether Singles22ORCL +2.5% · DUK +0.0%
VIX is not carried on the board (no tradeable-feed source); the Regime volatility component and Sigma Board carry the vol read.
SPY+0.27%gap n/a · open n/a
Best factor+0.27%Broken Momentum / Avoid
Worst factor-0.32%Extended Momentum Risk
Breadth85%baskets +ve · A/D 277/112
Up/Down Vol4.22xvolume in advancers vs decliners
Actionable Trading Ideas
0 of 3 playbooks triggered this run. Absence of a triggered edge is a position — no forced trade.
Nearest miss: large-cap capitulation — worst 5-day drop -9.6% (needs <= -10.0%).
Three down days in an uptrendRSI(14) < 30 pullback in an uptrendFive-day capitulation in large caps
Stats are fixed-horizon, no-stop, from the quarterly-refit offline backtest; t is naive (per-name non-overlap only) — read it as a screen and weight the per-year sign consistency, not as proof of significance.
Intraday Factor Moves
LeadingBroken Momentum / Avoid +0.5%Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation +0.4%Neutral / Transition +0.3%
LaggingExtended Momentum Risk -0.7%Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout -0.5%Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend +0.1%
Top-to-bottom basket spread 1.2pp today · dispersion Sectors z60 +2.0 (wide), Styles z60 -0.2 (typical) · flow confirms none of the leaders.
Broken Momentum / Avoid170 names · 100% covz +0.8+0.54%
ID+0.5%
1D+0.3%
3D-1.3%
1W-1.8%
MTD-3.1%
1M-3.0%
3M-14.9%
YTD-17.3%
1Y-14.7%
2Y+18.3%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation33 names · 100% covz +0.0+0.37%
ID+0.4%
1D+0.1%
3D+1.3%
1W+1.7%
MTD+6.1%
1M+8.8%
3M+22.4%
YTD+34.5%
1Y+45.8%
2Y+71.6%
Neutral / Transition513 names · 100% covz +0.2+0.35%
ID+0.3%
1D+0.1%
3D-0.5%
1W-0.1%
MTD-2.8%
1M-1.1%
3M+6.7%
YTD+22.6%
1Y+37.5%
2Y+57.8%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch46 names · 98% covz +0.5+0.31%
ID+0.3%
1D+0.2%
3D-4.9%
1W-5.8%
MTD-14.1%
1M-14.3%
3M-17.8%
YTD-15.0%
1Y-1.4%
2Y+33.9%
Thematic Momentum Leadership88 names · 100% covz -0.2+0.24%
ID+0.2%
1D+0.1%
3D-0.4%
1W-0.3%
MTD+5.1%
1M+7.7%
3M+24.8%
YTD+30.3%
1Y+41.8%
2Y+65.7%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend83 names · 98% covz -0.1+0.06%
ID+0.1%
1D+0.0%
3D+0.7%
1W+0.2%
MTD+2.7%
1M+3.3%
3M+5.2%
YTD+15.7%
1Y+20.7%
2Y+29.6%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout35 names · 100% covz -0.8-0.46%
ID-0.5%
1D-0.3%
3D-0.8%
1W-0.4%
MTD+3.2%
1M+11.8%
3M+51.6%
YTD+83.7%
1Y+141.9%
2Y+127.6%
Extended Momentum Risk29 names · 100% covz -1.2-0.66%
ID-0.7%
1D-0.3%
3D+3.6%
1W+4.0%
MTD+15.2%
1M+19.2%
3M+24.3%
YTD+45.2%
1Y+48.3%
2Y+51.6%
Unclassified / Insufficient Data thin — n<108 names · 100% covz -0.5-0.73%
ID-0.7%
1D-0.2%
3D-2.8%
1W-1.6%
MTD-6.4%
1M-1.4%
3M+7.9%
YTD+32.4%
z = today's move vs the basket's own trailing 60-session daily distribution (current membership; partial-day moves on intraday editions). |z| ≥ 2 highlighted.
Sector Rotation
Information Technology+0.50%
Materials+0.49%
Communication Services+0.47%
Consumer Staples+0.36%
Health Care+0.36%
Consumer Discretionary+0.26%
Utilities+0.24%
Industrials+0.22%
Financials+0.20%
Real Estate+0.17%
Energy-0.59%
Themes and Keyword Baskets
Cybersecurity+0.2%1D
94 names · 70% covaggregate only
ID+0.6%WTD-4.3%MTD-2.5%YTD+9.7%
Crypto / Digital Assets+0.1%1D
150 names · 69% covaggregate only
ID+0.4%WTD-0.2%MTD+0.4%YTD+12.8%
Energy Transition+0.1%1D
240 names · 81% cov
ID+0.5%WTD+0.7%MTD-5.8%YTD+21.9%
AI Infrastructure+0.1%1D
838 names · 80% covaggregate only
ID+0.4%WTD-0.0%MTD-4.6%YTD+20.4%
Macro Rates / Inflation+0.1%1D
506 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+0.4%WTD-1.0%MTD-1.9%YTD+14.4%
Consumer / Retail+0.1%1D
467 names · 75% cov
ID+0.3%WTD-1.6%MTD-0.6%YTD+6.6%
Semiconductors+0.1%1D
188 names · 89% cov
ID+0.2%WTD+1.8%MTD-9.6%YTD+52.0%
Defense / Aerospace+0.1%1D
202 names · 79% cov
ID+0.4%WTD+2.2%MTD-7.2%YTD+26.3%
Industrial Automation+0.1%1D
494 names · 76% covaggregate only
ID+0.4%WTD-0.0%MTD-4.2%YTD+22.0%
Commodities / Materials+0.1%1D
161 names · 73% cov
ID+0.2%WTD+2.1%MTD-4.1%YTD+9.9%
Financials / Credit+0.0%1D
646 names · 63% cov
ID+0.2%WTD-2.5%MTD-0.1%YTD+11.1%
Healthcare / Biotech degraded+0.0%1D
673 names · 58% cov
ID+0.2%WTD-1.0%MTD-0.9%YTD+23.0%
Housing / Real Estate+0.0%1D
439 names · 70% cov
ID+0.1%WTD-0.8%MTD-0.8%YTD+10.6%
Oil & Gas-0.0%1D
269 names · 84% cov
ID-0.1%WTD+0.3%MTD+0.4%YTD+20.1%
Theme performance is mixed. Semiconductors leads year-to-date at 51.95% but is down 9.55% month-to-date. Energy Transition has gained 21.91% YTD yet fell 5.83% MTD. AI Infrastructure shows 20.44% YTD but declined 4.56% MTD. Crypto/Digital Assets returned 12.77% YTD with a modest 0.37% MTD. Cybersecurity and Cloud Software are negative week-to-date at -4.28% and -4.04% respectively, with YTD returns of 9.74% and 9.89%. Commodities/Materials is down 3.72% over one month. Financials/Credit is flat MTD at -0.1%.
Sigma Board
−3σ0+3σ
Adv/Dec ratiobreadth · 2.47 · 60d · n=60+1.68σ
Credit w1spread · +0.68% · 252d · n=252+1.35σ
Momentum - LowVol w1spread · +4.44% · 252d · n=252+1.31σ
Duration w1spread · -1.48% · 252d · n=252-1.15σ
Semis - Market w1spread · +4.63% · 252d · n=252+1.00σ
% above SMA200breadth · 66.70 · 60d · n=60+0.88σ
% above SMA50breadth · 58.38 · 60d · n=60-0.67σ
HighBeta - LowVol w1spread · +2.01% · 252d · n=252+0.38σ
The multi-horizon sigma board highlights extreme dispersion: week-to-date, Extended Momentum Risk leads at +3.96% while Oversold/Mean-Reversion Watch lags at -5.83%. Month-to-date, the gap widens to +15.25% versus -14.1%. The Momentum minus Low Vol spread is +4.44% wtd, and Semis are +4.63% above the market after a 1.76% wtd gain in Semiconductors. In contrast, the Quality minus Extended Risk spread has contracted 3.78% wtd, and long-duration Treasuries are down -1.48%.
Factor × Sector Map
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn8
Information Technology
+0.8%1D
ID+1.1%WTD-5.2%MTD+3.0%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn9
Information Technology
+0.6%1D
ID+1.1%WTD-5.4%MTD-16.3%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn5
Consumer Staples
+0.6%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+1.7%MTD+8.4%
Neutral / Transitionn51
Health Care
+0.5%1D
ID+1.1%WTD-1.7%MTD-0.5%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn32
Information Technology
+0.5%1D
ID+0.9%WTD-2.8%MTD-2.9%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn7
Information Technology
+0.4%1D
ID+0.7%WTD+1.7%MTD+4.6%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Materials
+0.4%1D
ID+0.4%WTD-0.2%MTD-15.3%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn11
Communication Services
+0.3%1D
ID+0.4%WTD-7.2%MTD-8.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn12
Materials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.6%MTD-2.4%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn12
Communication Services
+0.3%1D
ID+0.5%WTD-3.6%MTD-1.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn31
Consumer Discretionary
+0.3%1D
ID+0.6%WTD-3.2%MTD-4.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn19
Financials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.5%WTD-1.2%MTD+1.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn28
Industrials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.6%MTD-6.5%
Neutral / Transitionn98
Information Technology
+0.2%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+2.0%MTD-8.7%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn6
Health Care
+0.2%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+1.5%MTD+3.3%
Neutral / Transitionn20
Materials
+0.2%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+1.9%MTD-1.5%
Neutral / Transitionn18
Communication Services
+0.2%1D
ID+0.5%WTD-3.6%MTD-0.5%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn10
Consumer Staples
+0.2%1D
ID+0.4%WTD-2.6%MTD-0.8%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn9
Industrials
+0.2%1D
ID+0.6%WTD-4.5%MTD-18.1%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn12
Real Estate
+0.1%1D
ID+0.5%WTD-1.9%MTD+2.5%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn10
Real Estate
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD-4.1%MTD-1.7%
Neutral / Transitionn28
Consumer Staples
+0.1%1D
ID+0.3%WTD-2.5%MTD-1.4%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn6
Financials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+0.5%MTD+6.7%
Neutral / Transitionn83
Financials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD-1.3%MTD+1.6%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn25
Utilities
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+1.3%MTD+2.6%
Neutral / Transitionn54
Consumer Discretionary
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD-1.6%MTD-2.3%
Neutral / Transitionn15
Utilities
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+2.6%MTD-0.0%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn5
Consumer Discretionary
+0.1%1D
ID+0.4%WTD-0.7%MTD+9.3%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn17
Financials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD-1.3%MTD+6.1%
Neutral / Transitionn105
Industrials
+0.0%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+1.0%MTD-5.5%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn17
Real Estate
+0.0%1D
ID+0.1%WTD-1.9%MTD+3.5%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn29
Health Care
+0.0%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.5%MTD+3.4%
Neutral / Transitionn25
Real Estate
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD-1.9%MTD-0.1%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn9
Industrials
+0.0%1D
ID·WTD+3.5%MTD+5.8%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn4
Energy
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+1.7%MTD+1.1%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn8
Consumer Discretionary
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD-1.2%MTD+6.5%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn3
Industrials
+0.0%1D
ID·WTD+8.1%MTD+3.9%
Unclassified / Insufficient Datan3
Information Technology
+0.0%1D
ID·WTD-1.4%MTD-7.5%
Extended Momentum Riskn8
Industrials
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD+4.2%MTD+11.8%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn17
Financials
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD+0.1%MTD+3.7%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn3
Energy
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD-0.2%MTD+15.4%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn14
Industrials
-0.0%1D
ID-0.1%WTD+0.6%MTD+2.2%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn19
Health Care
-0.1%1D
ID-0.1%WTD+0.2%MTD+3.0%
Neutral / Transitionn16
Energy
-0.1%1D
ID-0.3%WTD+2.5%MTD+4.5%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn12
Health Care
-0.2%1D
ID-0.3%WTD-1.7%MTD-2.5%
Extended Momentum Riskn6
Health Care
-0.2%1D
ID-0.6%WTD+6.1%MTD+10.5%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn6
Consumer Discretionary
-0.3%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-10.1%MTD-12.8%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn5
Energy
-0.7%1D
ID-0.7%WTD+4.7%MTD+16.0%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn8
Information Technology
-1.0%1D
ID-2.0%WTD-1.8%MTD-4.1%
Extended Momentum Riskn7
Energy
-1.2%1D
ID-1.4%WTD+3.6%MTD+21.4%
Regime Assessment
13 days · 53 runs · 6 published flips · raw≠published on 7 runs · raw label unavailable before Jul 10
Risk-Off Stress
Distribution Risk
Choppy Neutral
Constructive Rotation
Risk-On Trend
-0.70-0.15+0.55+0.90Jul 8Jul 13Jul 16Jul 21Jul 24
8 expected runs missing in window
Choppy NeutralConstructive RotationChoppy Neutral
published label · 2-run confirmation applied
Composite vs label bands, trailing month, all 5 editions/day. Ring = raw label disagreed with the published (confirmation-lag pressure). Y clamped to ±1.3.
trend+0.00
breadth+1.10
volatility+1.50
rotation-0.60
size-0.25
style+1.25
p(stay 1d)0.87
p(persist 5d)0.55
expected dwell7.7 td
samplen=506
Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — size positions to the risk state, don't chase the label. Transition is empirical; a label change needs two-run confirmation.
The current environment is classified as Choppy Neutral with 0.87 confidence, driven by elevated volatility (component score 1.5) and positive breadth (1.1), offset by negative rotation (-0.6) and neutral trend (0.0). The regime began yesterday and has a 7.7-day expected dwell time, with an 87% probability of persisting for one day and 55% over five days. The most probable exit is to Constructive Rotation (52.5%), with Distribution Risk at 28.8% as the next likely transition.
Top Single-Stock Setups (4h–1 Week)
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.3/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 601w +7.7%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$199.84
RSI60
1wk+7.7%
ATR stop−5.9%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+12%
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.2/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 591w +5.8%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$875.25
RSI60
1wk+5.8%
ATR stop−5.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+12%
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout · factor score 7.9/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 621w +4.0%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$622.75
RSI63
1wk+4.0%
ATR stop−5.0%
1-week return vs Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout basket (n=35)
-12%+23%
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.5/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 651w +2.2%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$50.97
RSI66
1wk+2.2%
ATR stop−2.9%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+12%
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 8.0/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 581w -0.3%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$17.28
RSI59
1wk-0.3%
ATR stop−4.6%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+12%
Long-only opportunity lens: names where the factor basket and the technical state agree over a 4-hour-to-1-week window. Confluence score, not a price target — size to the ATR stop and treat every setup as a probability, not a promise.
Long-only confluence screen: the factor engine's basket and the technical state pointing the same way over a 4-hour-to-1-week window.Size and Breadth
| Size bucket | N | Intraday | D1 | WTD | Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large (>=5B) | 1005 | +0.28% | +0.13% | -0.47% | 60.8% adv |
| Micro Cap $250M-$1B | 201 | n/a | +0.00% | -1.29% | 0.0% adv |
| Nano Cap <$250M | 15 | n/a | +0.00% | -3.85% | 0.0% adv |
| Small Cap $1B-$5B | 807 | +0.54% | +0.00% | -1.97% | 50.0% adv |
| % > SMA50 | % > SMA200 | Advancers | Decliners | % Baskets Positive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58.4% | 66.7% | 277 | 112 | 85.1% |
Large-caps (>=5B) are down 0.47% week-to-date but show broader participation with 60.75% advancing. Small caps ($1B-$5B) have declined 1.97% wtd with only 50% advancing, while micro caps are off 1.29% wtd with zero advancing breadth. Overall market breadth is mixed: 58.38% of constituents above their 50-day SMA and 66.7% above the 200-day. Advancers outnumber decliners at 277 to 112, with an up/down volume ratio of 4.22, indicating positive volume bias despite deteriorating price trends.
Cross-Sectional Dispersion
| Cross-section | Dispersion σ | IQR | z60 | z252 | State | Widest up / down |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sectors | +1.91% | +1.65% | 2.04 (n=60) | 3.01 (n=252) | Wide | XLI +1.73% / XLY -4.61% |
| Styles | +0.87% | +0.86% | -0.16 (n=60) | 0.64 (n=252) | Normal | VTV +0.24% / VUG -2.22% |
Volume and Participation
No anomalous volume patterns or significant basket participation deviations are present. Premarket relative volume metrics are structurally suppressed given limited early prints, so intraday volume signals carry reduced conviction. No volume-based warnings are triggered across baskets.
Cross-Asset Confirmation
CAC -0.10 — mixed (positive = risk-supportive)
| Signal | 5d | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Credit (HYG−LQD) | +0.44% | +0.30 |
| Risk vs defensives | -1.95% | -0.40 |
| Dollar (−UUP) | -0.78% | -0.15 |
| Curve (IEF/TLT) | +0.31% | +0.15 |
Duration-in-disguise — 63d TLT beta of style spreads
| Spread | TLT β | β · SPY-ctrl | β | %ile | Duration read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum - LowVol | 1.28 | 0.22 | 98% | duration-driven (current, unstable) | ||
| Growth - Value | 0.16 | -0.24 | 68% | factor-driven (current, unstable) | ||
| HighBeta - LowVol | 1.44 | 0.06 | 98% | duration-driven (current, unstable) | ||
| Small - Large | 0.61 | 0.65 | 97% | duration-driven (persistent) |
Opportunity Watchlist
| Ticker | Sector | Opportunity | Wave stage | Regime fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEC | Energy | 89.5 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 92.4 |
| CMCSA | Communication Services | 89.9 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 92.0 |
| MP | Materials | 86.9 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 91.0 |
| TEM | Health Care | 85.4 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 88.3 |
| QXO | Industrials | 87.0 | Wave 1 / accumulation | 87.9 |
| Ticker | Since close | Vs basket | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| UEC | n/a | n/a | diverges |
| CMCSA | +1.14% | +0.83% | confirms |
| MP | +0.36% | +0.05% | confirms |
| TEM | +0.65% | +0.11% | confirms |
| QXO | +0.43% | -0.11% | confirms |
The top regime-fit opportunities are concentrated in accumulation-stage names within Broken Momentum / Avoid and Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch baskets. CMCSA leads with an opportunity score of 89.9 and confirms intraday strength relative to its basket. UEC scores 89.5 but lacks intraday confirmation. MP and TEM also confirm. Top pattern setups include short bear flags in OKLO (76.72) and BLDR (75.44), and long patterns in FTDR double bottom (68.74) and LW Donchian breakout (66.52). Short-side setups dominate the highest scores.
Multi-Horizon Context
| Basket | D3 | WTD | MTD | QTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| production: Broken Momentum / Avoid | -1.31% | -1.79% | -3.09% | -3.09% | -17.31% |
| production: Extended Momentum Risk | +3.61% | +3.96% | +15.25% | +15.25% | +45.19% |
| production: Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation | +1.29% | +1.66% | +6.08% | +6.08% | +34.50% |
| production: Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend | +0.74% | +0.18% | +2.68% | +2.68% | +15.66% |
| production: Neutral / Transition | -0.54% | -0.08% | -2.84% | -2.84% | +22.63% |
| production: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -4.93% | -5.83% | -14.10% | -14.10% | -15.01% |
| production: Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout | -0.75% | -0.41% | +3.25% | +3.25% | +83.73% |
| production: Thematic Momentum Leadership | -0.43% | -0.28% | +5.09% | +5.09% | +30.29% |
| production: Unclassified / Insufficient Data | -2.82% | -1.56% | -6.39% | -6.39% | +32.39% |
| theme: AI Infrastructure | -1.34% | -0.00% | -4.56% | -4.56% | +20.44% |
| theme: Cloud Software | -3.50% | -4.04% | -2.09% | -2.09% | +9.89% |
| theme: Commodities / Materials | +0.08% | +2.10% | -4.07% | -4.07% | +9.86% |
| theme: Consumer / Retail | -1.03% | -1.57% | -0.55% | -0.55% | +6.56% |
| theme: Crypto / Digital Assets | -1.85% | -0.21% | +0.37% | +0.37% | +12.77% |
| theme: Cybersecurity | -2.93% | -4.28% | -2.53% | -2.53% | +9.74% |
| theme: Defense / Aerospace | -0.26% | +2.23% | -7.25% | -7.25% | +26.33% |
| theme: Energy Transition | -0.90% | +0.70% | -5.83% | -5.83% | +21.91% |
| theme: Financials / Credit | -1.85% | -2.49% | -0.10% | -0.10% | +11.09% |
| theme: Healthcare / Biotech | -1.28% | -0.98% | -0.87% | -0.87% | +23.04% |
| theme: Housing / Real Estate | -0.09% | -0.76% | -0.75% | -0.75% | +10.59% |
| theme: Industrial Automation | -1.16% | -0.01% | -4.19% | -4.19% | +22.01% |
| theme: Macro Rates / Inflation | -1.43% | -1.03% | -1.86% | -1.86% | +14.38% |
| theme: Oil & Gas | -0.70% | +0.31% | +0.36% | +0.36% | +20.09% |
| theme: Semiconductors | -1.52% | +1.76% | -9.55% | -9.55% | +51.95% |
| sector: Communication Services | -3.40% | -4.39% | -2.98% | -2.98% | -8.06% |
| sector: Consumer Discretionary | -1.43% | -2.37% | -2.24% | -2.24% | +4.58% |
| sector: Consumer Staples | -1.62% | -2.51% | -0.15% | -0.15% | +5.20% |
| sector: Energy | +0.94% | +2.32% | +9.85% | +9.85% | +40.72% |
| sector: Financials | -0.96% | -1.06% | +2.41% | +2.41% | +8.54% |
| sector: Health Care | -0.15% | -0.42% | +1.14% | +1.14% | +27.83% |
| sector: Industrials | +0.94% | +1.11% | -4.04% | -4.04% | +19.67% |
| sector: Information Technology | -1.99% | +0.11% | -6.38% | -6.38% | +33.88% |
| sector: Materials | +1.15% | +1.44% | -3.00% | -3.00% | +13.02% |
| sector: Real Estate | -1.16% | -2.15% | +1.35% | +1.35% | +10.94% |
| sector: Utilities | +2.29% | +1.84% | +1.08% | +1.08% | +8.36% |
| size: Large (>=5B) | -0.60% | -0.47% | -1.25% | -1.25% | +17.47% |
| size: Micro Cap $250M-$1B | -2.35% | -1.29% | -3.39% | -3.39% | +12.48% |
| size: Nano Cap <$250M | -2.52% | -3.85% | +13.95% | +13.95% | +35.62% |
| size: Small Cap $1B-$5B | -2.08% | -1.97% | -2.21% | -2.21% | +18.50% |
| style: Base Building / Coiled | -0.54% | -0.75% | -1.56% | -1.56% | +10.61% |
| style: Extended Overbought Momentum | +4.28% | +4.32% | +14.83% | +14.83% | +26.51% |
| style: High-Vol Breakdown | -2.87% | -1.59% | -11.05% | -11.05% | -21.61% |
| style: High-Vol Momentum | -0.86% | -0.31% | +3.92% | +3.92% | +91.08% |
| style: Low-Vol Uptrend | +0.14% | -0.51% | +2.58% | +2.58% | +16.41% |
| style: Momentum Breakout / Leadership | +1.35% | +1.58% | +9.90% | +9.90% | +44.15% |
| style: Neutral / Transition | -0.71% | -0.32% | -2.56% | -2.56% | +23.58% |
| style: Normal Vol/Trend | -0.57% | +0.11% | -1.80% | -1.80% | +24.73% |
| style: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch | -4.93% | -5.83% | -14.10% | -14.10% | -15.01% |
| style: Persistent Uptrend / Compounder | +0.71% | +0.78% | +3.08% | +3.08% | +29.87% |
| style: Weak Downtrend / Avoid Momentum | -1.31% | -1.79% | -3.09% | -3.09% | -17.31% |
Across horizons, Extended Momentum Risk is the top performer, returning 3.61% d3, 3.96% wtd, and 15.25% mtd, while Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch is the worst, down 4.93% d3, 5.83% wtd, and 14.1% mtd. The Quality – Extended Risk spread has collapsed, with the quality basket underperforming by 2.87% d3 and 12.57% mtd. Breadth trends are deteriorating across all lookbacks. Notably, the Momentum – LowVol spread is positive short-term (4.44% wtd) but deeply negative month-to-date (-8.05%), reflecting recent churn.
Data Quality and Coverage
| Source | As of |
|---|---|
| intraday_bars | 2026-07-24T06:45:00-04:00 |
| warehouse_snapshot | 2026-07-24 |
| proxy_daily | 2026-07-23 |
| screener_artifact | 2026-07-23T20:52:06.717792-04:00 |
| grouped_daily | unavailable |
- Overall coverage: 45.4%
- Degraded baskets: theme:Healthcare / Biotech
- Missing archived report days: 2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07
- Warning: premarket rvol suppressed: <1% of a day's volume prints by 07:00 ET, so relative volume is structurally meaningless before the open
- Warning: thin production basket: Unclassified / Insufficient Data n_members=8 (<10); exclude from broad leadership claims
- Report generated at 2026-07-24T07:01:52-04:00; every figure above is computed deterministically from report.json