Wrap · market state
Choppy Neutral
BeganThu Jul 23 · close · 16:00 ETheld 1 td
Typical dwell~7.7 tdp(stay 1d) 0.87 · fresh
Implied through~Tue Aug 4~7 td left
When it breaks, historically →→ Constructive Rotation 52%→ Distribution Risk 29%→ Risk-Off Stress 10%→ Risk-On Trend 8%
3-day tape
month →
1td in — ~7td of typical dwell leftfresh
age 1tdtypical dwell ~8td

SPY +0.10% since prior close; Thematic Momentum Leadership leads (+0.89%), Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout lags (-0.66%).

Risk-STATE gauge — monotone in forward volatility, not direction. Size to the state; don't chase the label.

Regime Playbook — Choppy Neutral

History says after Choppy Neutral days like today: Gold & Semis lead, Staples & REITs lag the next session.

TOMORROWForward lean — next session, relative to SPYtradeable
−16 bp0+16 bp
Historically lead
Gold GLDhit 50% · n 287 · skewed: few big days+16 bp
Semis SMHhit 56% · n 505+14 bp
Tech XLKhit 55% · n 505+6 bp
Biotech XBIhit 49% · n 505 · skewed: few big days+5 bp
· 22 more cells between -6 and +4 bp/d ·
Historically lag
Low Vol SPLVhit 46% · n 505-6 bp
Utilities XLUhit 45% · n 505-6 bp
REITs XLREhit 48% · n 505-7 bp
Staples XLPhit 43% · n 505-9 bp
Today's tape vs this playbook2/4 tracking

biggest divergence: SMH -3.4% rel vs a +12bp/d historical tilt

TODAYWhat usually moves WITH this tape — state description, not a signalcontext
−17 bp0+17 bp
Gold GLDhit 50% · n 283+17 bp
Semis SMHhit 54% · n 506+12 bp
Regional Banks KREhit 48% · n 283 · skewed: few big days+5 bp
· 24 more cells between -4 and +5 bp/d ·
Materials XLBhit 48% · n 506-4 bp
Health Care XLVhit 47% · n 506-5 bp
HY Credit HYGhit 45% · n 506-6 bp

bp/day relative to SPY · bar scale = largest shown tilt per ladder (printed on the axis) · n≈505 days per cell · empirical rel-SPY tilts, 2021-07-26..2026-07-22, labels=v1.1+2-run, min-n 60, refit annually. TOMORROW is the tradeable lean (reversion-flavored at extremes); TODAY only describes the tape.

Intelligence Summary

Session

Markets closed mixed on July 24, 2026, under a Choppy Neutral regime with a composite score of 0.4025. Breadth was positive: 658 advancers versus 341 decliners, with up volume beating down volume at 1.09. 62.89% of stocks held above their 50-day moving average, while 67.9% remained above the 200-day. Sector performance spread wide; Consumer Discretionary led with a 1.39% daily gain, while Information Technology fell 0.81%. The session reflected internal rotation without a clear directional impulse from large-cap benchmarks.

Session Snapshot →
Factors

Thematic Momentum Leadership led production baskets, gaining 0.89% for the day on 72.73% advancing breadth. Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend followed with 0.82% and 85.19% participation. Conversely, Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout dropped 0.66% with only 48.57% of members advancing. Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch declined 0.05% on elevated relative volume of 0.96. Key spread moves: Semis - Market fell 3.37%, while Momentum - LowVol slipped 3.29%, underscoring a rotation away from extended momentum and high beta toward quality and low volatility.

Closing Factor Performance →
Sectors

Real Estate led sector gains at 1.64% intraday, with 93.94% of names advancing. Consumer Discretionary added 1.39%, Consumer Staples rose 1.09%, and Communication Services gained 0.88%. Energy was the sole declining sector, down 0.36% on weak breadth of 33.33% advancers. Information Technology fell 0.81% as only 47.31% of members advanced. Week-to-date, Energy remained the standout at 2.33%, while Communication Services languished at -3.80%. Sector wave regimes placed Energy, Materials, and Utilities in late acceleration, while Technology and Health Care reset within trend.

Sector Rotation →
Connections
  • Momentum - LowVol d1 is stretched at -2.2σ — mean-reversion pressure. Sigma Board →
  • Semis - Market d1 is stretched at -2.0σ — mean-reversion pressure. Sigma Board →
  • Sharpest cell: Neutral / Transition × Real Estate +2.0% (n25) vs Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch × Materials -3.9% (n3) — long/short the spread, not the index. Factor × Sector →
  • Rotation spread: Real Estate +1.6% over Information Technology -0.8% (2.5pp). Sector Rotation →

Session Snapshot

CAC -0.10mixed
−risk-off0+risk-on
Equitiesbroad index tape · 5/8 adv
+0.07%med
Rates & Creditduration + credit spread · 8/12 adv
+0.06%med
Commodities & FXgold · oil · the dollar · 3/5 adv
+0.07%med
Globalint'l / EM equity · 8/15 adv
+0.08%med
US Benchmarks8
RSP+0.8%rvol 0.8
DIA+0.5%rvol 0.9
MDY+0.4%rvol 0.8
SPY+0.1%rvol 0.9
VTI+0.0%rvol 0.8
IJR-0.0%rvol 0.7
IWM-0.3%rvol 0.9
QQQ-1.1%rvol 1.1
Rates & Credit12
IEF+0.2%rvol 0.9
TLT+0.1%rvol 0.7
SHY+0.1%rvol 0.9
SRLN+0.1%rvol 0.7
VCIT+0.1%rvol 1.4
PFF+0.1%rvol 1.0
JAAA+0.0%rvol 1.1
FALN+0.0%rvol 1.4
HYG+0.0%rvol 1.4
ANGL+0.0%rvol 2.5
LQD-0.0%rvol 1.0
VCLT-0.1%rvol 1.1
Commodities & FX5
SLV+1.0%rvol 0.7
GLD+0.1%rvol 0.6
UUP+0.1%rvol 0.6
IBIT-0.8%rvol 0.8
USO-2.0%rvol 1.4
Global15FLIN +0.9% · EWY -6.3%
FLIN+0.9%rvol 5.7
EFV+0.8%rvol 1.1
VGK+0.7%rvol 1.3
EFA+0.5%rvol 0.8
FXI+0.3%rvol 0.4
FLJP+0.3%rvol 0.4
EWJ+0.1%rvol 0.6
KWEB+0.1%rvol 1.1
EWO+0.0%rvol 0.3
VXUS-0.3%rvol 0.8
FLCH-0.3%rvol 0.2
EWZ-1.2%rvol 0.8
EEM-2.0%rvol 0.9
FLKR-5.9%rvol 1.1
EWY-6.3%rvol 0.9
Style & Factor11
SPLV+1.1%rvol 0.9
USMV+0.9%rvol 1.0
IWD+0.8%rvol 0.5
JEPI+0.7%rvol 1.0
VTV+0.5%rvol 0.8
QUAL+0.4%rvol 0.5
VUG-0.4%rvol 0.8
VLUE-0.5%rvol 0.3
IWF-0.8%rvol 0.7
SPHB-1.6%rvol 0.9
MTUM-2.4%rvol 0.7
Sectors11
XLRE+2.2%rvol 1.0
XLB+1.9%rvol 1.1
XLP+1.1%rvol 0.9
XLC+0.9%rvol 0.9
XLF+0.9%rvol 1.0
XLV+0.7%rvol 0.7
XLY+0.6%rvol 0.9
XLE+0.4%rvol 1.1
XLI+0.4%rvol 0.8
XLU+0.2%rvol 0.9
XLK-1.4%rvol 0.8
Industry Themes11XHB +1.6% · DRAM -8.8%
XHB+1.6%rvol 0.8
IGV+1.0%rvol 1.0
ITA+0.8%rvol 1.6
KRE+0.8%rvol 0.8
VGT-0.9%rvol 0.6
XBI-1.1%rvol 0.8
ARKK-2.6%rvol 1.1
TAN-3.0%rvol 0.9
SMH-3.3%rvol 1.7
SOXX-4.4%rvol 1.1
DRAM-8.8%rvol 1.0
Bellwether Singles22AAPL +3.5% · NBIS -15.0%
AAPL+3.5%rvol 0.8
BAC+1.3%rvol 0.8
DUK+1.0%rvol 0.8
JPM+0.9%rvol 0.7
GOOGL+0.7%rvol 0.9
MSFT+0.0%rvol 0.7
NEE-0.0%rvol 1.1
CEG-0.5%rvol 0.8
AMZN-0.7%rvol 0.7
GS-1.3%rvol 0.7
FSLR-1.5%rvol 0.9
CCJ-1.6%rvol 1.0
META-1.8%rvol 0.6
TSLA-2.1%rvol 1.5
SPCX-2.7%rvol 0.7
VST-3.3%rvol 0.7
ORCL-4.2%rvol 1.2
ENPH-5.6%rvol 0.7
FCEL-8.8%rvol 0.6
CRWV-11.4%rvol 1.0
BE-14.9%rvol 1.0
NBIS-15.0%rvol 1.3

VIX is not carried on the board (no tradeable-feed source); the Regime volatility component and Sigma Board carry the vol read.

SPY+0.10%gap +0.04% · open +0.06%
Best factor+0.89%Thematic Momentum Leadership
Worst factor-0.66%Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout
Breadth55%baskets +ve · A/D 658/341
Up/Down Vol1.09xvolume in advancers vs decliners

Actionable Trading Ideas

0 of 3 playbooks triggered this run. Absence of a triggered edge is a position — no forced trade.

Nearest miss: large-cap capitulation — worst 5-day drop -9.03% (needs <= -10.00%).

Three down days in an uptrendRSI(14) < 30 pullback in an uptrendFive-day capitulation in large caps

Stats are fixed-horizon, no-stop, from the quarterly-refit offline backtest; t is naive (per-name non-overlap only) — read it as a screen and weight the per-year sign consistency, not as proof of significance.

Closing Factor Performance

LeadingThematic Momentum Leadership +0.9%Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend +0.8%Broken Momentum / Avoid +0.6%
LaggingSmaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout -0.7%Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch -0.1%Neutral / Transition +0.1%

Top-to-bottom basket spread 1.6pp today · dispersion Sectors z60 +2.0 (wide), Styles z60 -0.2 (typical) · flow confirms 1/3 leaders.

Thematic Momentum Leadership88 names · 100% covz +0.7+0.89%
ID+0.9%
1D+0.9%
3D+0.3%
1W+0.5%
MTD+5.9%
1M+8.5%
3M+25.7%
YTD+31.2%
1Y+42.7%
2Y+66.7%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend83 names · 98% covz +1.0+0.82%
ID+0.8%
1D+0.8%
3D+1.5%
1W+1.0%
MTD+3.5%
1M+4.1%
3M+6.0%
YTD+16.6%
1Y+21.6%
2Y+30.5%
Unclassified / Insufficient Data thin — n<108 names · 100% covz +0.3+0.69%
ID+0.7%
1D+0.7%
3D-2.0%
1W-0.8%
MTD-5.5%
1M-0.6%
3M+8.7%
YTD+33.0%
Broken Momentum / Avoid170 names · 100% covz +0.8+0.61%
ID+0.6%
1D+0.6%
3D-1.0%
1W-1.6%
MTD-2.7%
1M-2.6%
3M-14.6%
YTD-17.1%
1Y-14.7%
2Y+18.0%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation33 names · 100% covz +0.4+0.61%
ID+0.6%
1D+0.6%
3D+1.8%
1W+2.1%
MTD+6.6%
1M+9.3%
3M+22.9%
YTD+34.7%
1Y+46.0%
2Y+71.8%
Extended Momentum Risk29 names · 100% covz -0.2+0.19%
ID+0.2%
1D+0.2%
3D+4.1%
1W+4.5%
MTD+15.8%
1M+19.7%
3M+24.7%
YTD+45.5%
1Y+48.7%
2Y+52.3%
Neutral / Transition513 names · 100% covz -0.0+0.11%
ID+0.1%
1D+0.1%
3D-0.6%
1W-0.2%
MTD-2.7%
1M-1.0%
3M+6.6%
YTD+21.7%
1Y+36.3%
2Y+57.1%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch46 names · 98% covz +0.2-0.05%
ID-0.1%
1D-0.1%
3D-5.2%
1W-6.1%
MTD-14.2%
1M-14.4%
3M-17.9%
YTD-15.4%
1Y-2.2%
2Y+32.7%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout35 names · 100% covz -1.0-0.66%
ID-0.7%
1D-0.7%
3D-1.2%
1W-0.9%
MTD+3.0%
1M+11.4%
3M+50.5%
YTD+81.6%
1Y+139.9%
2Y+126.1%

z = today's move vs the basket's own trailing 60-session daily distribution (current membership; partial-day moves on intraday editions). |z| ≥ 2 highlighted.

Sector Rotation

Real Estate+1.64%
Consumer Discretionary+1.39%
Consumer Staples+1.09%
Communication Services+0.88%
Financials+0.77%
Materials+0.55%
Industrials-0.03%
Health Care-0.05%
Utilities-0.29%
Energy-0.36%
Information Technology-0.81%
Themes and Keyword Baskets
Cybersecurity+1.7%1D
94 names · 70% covaggregate only
ID+1.7%WTD-2.9%MTD-1.0%YTD+10.7%
Cloud Software+1.2%1D
258 names · 79% covaggregate only
ID+1.2%WTD-3.2%MTD-0.9%YTD+10.3%
Housing / Real Estate+1.1%1D
439 names · 70% cov
ID+1.1%WTD+0.3%MTD+0.4%YTD+11.5%
Consumer / Retail+1.0%1D
467 names · 75% cov
ID+1.0%WTD-0.6%MTD+0.5%YTD+7.4%
Financials / Credit+0.8%1D
646 names · 63% cov
ID+0.8%WTD-1.8%MTD+0.6%YTD+11.7%
Macro Rates / Inflation+0.6%1D
506 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+0.6%WTD-0.6%MTD-1.3%YTD+14.7%
Industrial Automation-0.3%1D
494 names · 76% covaggregate only
ID-0.3%WTD-0.5%MTD-4.3%YTD+20.9%
Oil & Gas-0.5%1D
269 names · 84% cov
ID-0.5%WTD-0.2%MTD-0.0%YTD+19.1%
Commodities / Materials-0.6%1D
161 names · 73% cov
ID-0.6%WTD+1.4%MTD-4.5%YTD+9.2%
AI Infrastructure-0.7%1D
838 names · 80% covaggregate only
ID-0.7%WTD-0.9%MTD-5.0%YTD+18.3%
Crypto / Digital Assets-0.7%1D
150 names · 69% covaggregate only
ID-0.7%WTD-1.2%MTD-0.5%YTD+11.2%
Healthcare / Biotech degraded-0.8%1D
673 names · 58% cov
ID-0.8%WTD-1.8%MTD-1.6%YTD+21.8%
Defense / Aerospace-1.3%1D
202 names · 79% cov
ID-1.3%WTD+0.8%MTD-8.2%YTD+24.2%
Energy Transition-1.6%1D
240 names · 81% cov
ID-1.6%WTD-1.1%MTD-7.1%YTD+19.4%
Semiconductors-2.5%1D
188 names · 89% cov
ID-2.5%WTD-1.0%MTD-11.5%YTD+46.4%

Cybersecurity themes rallied 1.72%, leading all baskets with 72.73% participation. Cloud Software and Housing/Real Estate followed at 1.23% and 1.07%, respectively. At the bottom, Semiconductors plunged 2.48% on only 35.71% advancing breadth; Energy Transition and Defense/Aerospace declined 1.55% and 1.26%. Month-to-date, Semiconductors have shed 11.48%, but remain up 46.37% year-to-date. The AI Infrastructure theme dipped 0.71%, reflecting continued pressure on the AI complex, while Healthcare/Biotech, flagged as degraded, fell 0.80%.

Sigma Board
−3σ0+3σ
Momentum - LowVol d1spread · -3.29% · 252d · n=252-2.21σ
Semis - Market d1spread · -3.37% · 252d · n=252-2.02σ
Growth - Value d1spread · -1.63% · 252d · n=252-1.77σ
HighBeta - LowVol d1spread · -2.65% · 252d · n=252-1.52σ
Credit w1spread · +0.71% · 252d · n=252+1.40σ
EqualWeight - CapWeight d1spread · +0.68% · 252d · n=252+1.35σ
Duration w1spread · -1.50% · 252d · n=252-1.17σ
% above SMA200breadth · 67.90 · 60d · n=60+1.16σ
Adv/Dec ratiobreadth · 1.93 · 60d · n=60+0.95σ
Growth - Value w1spread · -1.53% · 252d · n=252-0.69σ
EqualWeight - CapWeight w1spread · +0.68% · 252d · n=252+0.65σ
Thematic Momentum Leadership d1basket · +0.89% · 60d · n=37+0.64σ

The pattern census registered 82 breakouts against 32 breakdowns, with oversold setups at 46. The top opportunity screener flagged VG (Energy) with an opportunity score of 89.0 in a breakout wave, while OKLO (Utilities) scored 83.7 in accumulation. The highest-rated trade setup was a head-and-shoulders short in BLDR at 74.9, followed by a donchian breakdown in ACI at 74.7. Intraday confirmation failed across the top five screener names, as each closed negative and underperformed its basket, indicating no immediate follow-through on signal generation.

Factor × Sector Map
Neutral / Transitionn25
Real Estate
+2.0%1D
ID+2.0%WTD+0.1%MTD+1.9%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn17
Financials
+1.8%1D
ID+1.8%WTD+0.4%MTD+7.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn31
Consumer Discretionary
+1.8%1D
ID+1.8%WTD-1.8%MTD-3.5%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn12
Real Estate
+1.6%1D
ID+1.6%WTD-0.5%MTD+4.0%
Neutral / Transitionn20
Materials
+1.6%1D
ID+1.6%WTD+3.4%MTD-0.0%
Neutral / Transitionn54
Consumer Discretionary
+1.5%1D
ID+1.6%WTD-0.1%MTD-0.9%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn11
Communication Services
+1.5%1D
ID+1.5%WTD-6.2%MTD-7.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn8
Consumer Discretionary
+1.4%1D
ID+1.4%WTD+0.2%MTD+8.0%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn8
Information Technology
+1.4%1D
ID+1.4%WTD-4.6%MTD+3.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn10
Consumer Staples
+1.3%1D
ID+1.3%WTD-1.4%MTD+0.3%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn17
Real Estate
+1.3%1D
ID+1.3%WTD-0.7%MTD+4.9%
Neutral / Transitionn28
Consumer Staples
+1.3%1D
ID+1.3%WTD-1.4%MTD-0.2%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn6
Financials
+1.2%1D
ID+1.2%WTD+1.6%MTD+7.9%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn17
Financials
+1.2%1D
ID+1.2%WTD+1.2%MTD+4.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn32
Information Technology
+1.1%1D
ID+1.1%WTD-2.5%MTD-1.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn10
Real Estate
+1.1%1D
ID+1.1%WTD-3.1%MTD-0.8%
Neutral / Transitionn18
Communication Services
+1.1%1D
ID+1.1%WTD-2.7%MTD+0.4%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn6
Health Care
+1.0%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+2.3%MTD+4.1%
Extended Momentum Riskn8
Industrials
+0.9%1D
ID+0.9%WTD+5.2%MTD+12.9%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn5
Consumer Staples
+0.8%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+1.9%MTD+8.6%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn14
Industrials
+0.8%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+1.4%MTD+2.9%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn9
Industrials
+0.7%1D
ID+0.7%WTD+4.2%MTD+6.5%
Neutral / Transitionn83
Financials
+0.6%1D
ID+0.6%WTD-0.9%MTD+2.2%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn25
Utilities
+0.5%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+1.7%MTD+3.0%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn7
Information Technology
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+1.5%MTD+4.7%
Unclassified / Insufficient Datan3
Information Technology
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD-1.4%MTD-7.1%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn9
Information Technology
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD-5.9%MTD-16.4%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn19
Financials
+0.2%1D
ID+0.2%WTD-1.4%MTD+1.1%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn12
Materials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.4%MTD-2.6%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn12
Communication Services
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD-3.8%MTD-1.9%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn29
Health Care
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.5%MTD+3.4%
Neutral / Transitionn51
Health Care
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD-2.1%MTD-0.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn28
Industrials
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+0.3%MTD-6.6%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn9
Industrials
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD-4.8%MTD-18.1%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn5
Consumer Discretionary
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD-0.8%MTD+9.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn5
Energy
-0.0%1D
ID-0.0%WTD+5.4%MTD+16.8%
Neutral / Transitionn105
Industrials
-0.3%1D
ID-0.3%WTD+0.7%MTD-5.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn3
Industrials
-0.3%1D
ID-0.3%WTD+7.8%MTD+3.6%
Neutral / Transitionn16
Energy
-0.4%1D
ID-0.4%WTD+2.2%MTD+4.3%
Neutral / Transitionn15
Utilities
-0.4%1D
ID-0.4%WTD+2.1%MTD-0.5%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn19
Health Care
-0.5%1D
ID-0.5%WTD-0.2%MTD+2.6%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn12
Health Care
-0.7%1D
ID-0.7%WTD-2.1%MTD-2.8%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn4
Energy
-0.7%1D
ID-0.7%WTD+0.9%MTD+0.4%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn3
Energy
-0.8%1D
ID-0.8%WTD-1.0%MTD+14.5%
Extended Momentum Riskn6
Health Care
-0.9%1D
ID-0.9%WTD+5.3%MTD+9.6%
Extended Momentum Riskn7
Energy
-0.9%1D
ID-0.9%WTD+3.8%MTD+21.6%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn6
Consumer Discretionary
-0.9%1D
ID-0.9%WTD-10.6%MTD-13.2%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn8
Information Technology
-1.2%1D
ID-1.2%WTD-2.5%MTD-3.8%
Neutral / Transitionn98
Information Technology
-1.9%1D
ID-1.9%WTD-0.4%MTD-10.2%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Materials
-3.9%1D
ID-3.9%WTD-4.3%MTD-18.8%
Where each factor basket is working by sector — sorted by 1-day equal-weight return, ≥3 names per cell.
Regime Assessment
13 days · 57 runs · 6 published flips · raw≠published on 7 runs · raw label unavailable before Jul 10
Risk-Off Stress
Distribution Risk
Choppy Neutral
Constructive Rotation
Risk-On Trend
-0.70-0.15+0.55+0.90
Jul 8Jul 13Jul 16Jul 21Jul 24
8 expected runs missing in window
Choppy Neutral
published label · 2-run confirmation applied

Composite vs label bands, trailing month, all 5 editions/day. Ring = raw label disagreed with the published (confirmation-lag pressure). Y clamped to ±1.3.

trend+0.00
breadth+0.90
volatility+1.00
rotation+1.40
size-0.70
style+0.25
p(stay 1d)0.87
p(persist 5d)0.55
expected dwell7.7 td
samplen=506

Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — size positions to the risk state, don't chase the label. Transition is empirical; a label change needs two-run confirmation.

The current regime is Choppy Neutral (composite 0.4025, confidence 0.87), initiated July 23 and expected to persist for 7.7 trading days, with 6.7 remaining. Breadth sits at 62.9% above the 50-day moving average and 67.9% above the 200-day, while the advance-decline ratio is 1.93 and 55.3% of baskets are positive. Volatility is elevated but contained, with 20-day realized volatility at the 35.5th percentile of the two-year range. Rotation component is elevated at 1.4, indicating active sector shifts. Historically, this regime most often transitions to Constructive Rotation (52.5%) or Distribution Risk (28.8%).

Top Single-Stock Setups (4h–1 Week)

#1ATIIndustrials100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.3/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 601w +7.7%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$199.84
RSI60
1wk+7.7%
ATR stop−5.9%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+12%
#2CASYConsumer Discretionary100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.2/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 591w +5.8%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$875.25
RSI60
1wk+5.8%
ATR stop−5.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+12%
#3MUSAConsumer Discretionary98
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout · factor score 7.9/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 621w +4.0%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$622.75
RSI63
1wk+4.0%
ATR stop−5.0%
1-week return vs Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout basket (n=35)
-12%+23%
#4OHIReal Estate97
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.5/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 651w +2.2%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$50.97
RSI66
1wk+2.2%
ATR stop−2.9%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+12%
#5VTRSHealth Care97
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 8.0/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 581w -0.3%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$17.28
RSI59
1wk-0.3%
ATR stop−4.6%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=88)
-11%+12%

Long-only opportunity lens: names where the factor basket and the technical state agree over a 4-hour-to-1-week window. Confluence score, not a price target — size to the ATR stop and treat every setup as a probability, not a promise.

Long-only confluence screen: the factor engine's basket and the technical state pointing the same way over a 4-hour-to-1-week window.
BoltFactors © 2026 · WRAP edition · 2026-07-24 · GitHub · every number is computed deterministically from report.json before narration; ideas pair today's live trigger with a static historical prior.