Premarket · market state
Choppy Neutral
BeganThu Jul 23 · close · 16:00 ETheld 2 td
Typical dwell~7.7 tdp(stay 1d) 0.87 · fresh
Implied through~Tue Aug 4~6 td left
When it breaks, historically →→ Constructive Rotation 52%→ Distribution Risk 29%→ Risk-Off Stress 10%→ Risk-On Trend 8%
3-day tape
month →
2td in — ~6td of typical dwell leftfresh
age 2tdtypical dwell ~8td

SPY +0.99% since prior close; Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch leads (+1.48%), Extended Momentum Risk lags (-0.82%).

Risk-STATE gauge — monotone in forward volatility, not direction. Size to the state; don't chase the label.

Regime Playbook — Choppy Neutral

History says after Choppy Neutral days like today: Gold & Semis lead, Staples & REITs lag the next session.

TOMORROWForward lean — next session, relative to SPYtradeable
−16 bp0+16 bp
Historically lead
Gold GLDhit 50% · n 287 · skewed: few big days+16 bp
Semis SMHhit 56% · n 505+14 bp
Tech XLKhit 55% · n 505+6 bp
Biotech XBIhit 49% · n 505 · skewed: few big days+5 bp
· 22 more cells between -6 and +4 bp/d ·
Historically lag
Low Vol SPLVhit 46% · n 505-6 bp
Utilities XLUhit 45% · n 505-6 bp
REITs XLREhit 48% · n 505-7 bp
Staples XLPhit 43% · n 505-9 bp
TODAYWhat usually moves WITH this tape — state description, not a signalcontext
−17 bp0+17 bp
Gold GLDhit 50% · n 283+17 bp
Semis SMHhit 54% · n 506+12 bp
Regional Banks KREhit 48% · n 283 · skewed: few big days+5 bp
· 24 more cells between -4 and +5 bp/d ·
Materials XLBhit 48% · n 506-4 bp
Health Care XLVhit 47% · n 506-5 bp
HY Credit HYGhit 45% · n 506-6 bp

bp/day relative to SPY · bar scale = largest shown tilt per ladder (printed on the axis) · n≈505 days per cell · empirical rel-SPY tilts, 2021-07-26..2026-07-22, labels=v1.1+2-run, min-n 60, refit annually. TOMORROW is the tradeable lean (reversion-flavored at extremes); TODAY only describes the tape.

Intelligence Summary

Session

The current regime is Choppy Neutral with a composite score of 0.38 and 0.87 confidence. Breadth measures are constructive: 64.09% of stocks are above their 50-day moving averages and 69.11% above their 200-day, while the advance-decline line stands at 381 advancers to 94 decliners. Across baskets, 85.42% are positive. Leading the premarket session, the High-Vol Breakdown style basket is up 2.33% and Information Technology sector gains 2.23%. On the downside, Energy lags at -2.55% and Extended Overbought Momentum drops 2.22%.

Session Snapshot →
Factors

Within our production baskets, Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch jumps 1.92% intraday, while Broken Momentum / Avoid adds 1.17% and Neutral / Transition gains 1.24%. Conversely, Extended Momentum Risk drops 1.41% and Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation slips 0.33%. Key spreads show Momentum Leadership – Broken Momentum widening to -1.50% and Quality – Extended Risk moving to +1.42%. The Momentum – LowVol spread stands at 1.9257 week-to-date, indicating a continued unwind of momentum relative to low-volatility strategies.

Intraday Factor Moves →
Sectors

Information Technology leads the session with a 2.23% intraday gain and 1.43% week-to-date, while Energy lags sharply at -2.55% intraday and -2.09% week-to-date. Sector breadth supports the rotation: 95.33% of Technology names advanced intraday versus only 6.25% in Energy. Month-to-date, Energy holds a 7.46% gain, but the intraday reversal signals a potential pause. Other notable moves include Industrials and Health Care showing resilience with wtd gains of 0.52% and 0.24%, respectively, while Communication Services continues to underperform with a -2.94% weekly decline.

Sector Rotation →
Connections
  • Adv/Dec ratio is stretched at +3.8σ — mean-reversion pressure. Sigma Board →
  • Sharpest cell: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch × Information Technology +2.4% (n14) vs Extended Momentum Risk × Energy -3.5% (n8) — long/short the spread, not the index. Factor × Sector →
  • Rotation spread: Information Technology +1.4% over Energy -2.1% (3.5pp). Sector Rotation →

Session Snapshot

CAC +0.60mixed
−risk-off0+risk-on
Equitiesbroad index tape · 6/6 adv
+1.02%med
Rates & Creditduration + credit spread · 4/4 adv
+0.17%med
Commodities & FXgold · oil · the dollar · 3/5 adv
+1.19%med
Globalint'l / EM equity · 8/8 adv
+1.59%med
US Benchmarks8
QQQ+1.6%
IWM+1.3%
DIA+1.0%
SPY+1.0%
VTI+0.9%
RSP+0.6%
MDY+0.0%prev 1D
IJR+0.0%prev 1D
Rates & Credit12
TLT+0.7%
IEF+0.3%
SHY+0.1%
JAAA+0.0%
HYG+0.0%prev 1D
LQD+0.0%prev 1D
VCIT+0.0%prev 1D
VCLT+0.0%prev 1D
SRLN+0.0%prev 1D
FALN+0.0%prev 1D
ANGL+0.0%prev 1D
PFF+0.0%prev 1D
Commodities & FX5
SLV+1.9%
IBIT+1.8%
GLD+1.2%
UUP-0.2%
USO-7.5%
Global15EWY +3.4% · FLCH +0.0%
EWY+3.4%
FLKR+2.4%
EEM+1.9%
KWEB+1.9%
EWJ+1.3%
FXI+1.2%
VXUS+1.0%
EWZ+0.6%
EFA+0.0%prev 1D
VGK+0.0%prev 1D
EFV+0.0%prev 1D
EWO+0.0%prev 1D
FLIN+0.0%prev 1D
FLJP+0.0%prev 1D
FLCH+0.0%prev 1D
Style & Factor11
MTUM+1.9%
IWF+0.8%
QUAL+0.7%
JEPI+0.5%
VTV+0.4%
VLUE+0.0%prev 1D
USMV+0.0%prev 1D
SPLV+0.0%prev 1D
SPHB+0.0%prev 1D
IWD+0.0%prev 1D
VUG+0.0%prev 1D
Sectors11
XLK+2.0%
XLY+1.1%
XLI+1.0%
XLB+0.7%
XLF+0.6%
XLV+0.4%
XLU+0.2%
XLRE+0.2%
XLP+0.1%
XLE-2.7%
XLC+0.0%prev 1D
Industry Themes11DRAM +4.9% · XHB +0.0%
DRAM+4.9%
SOXX+2.9%
SMH+2.5%
ARKK+2.1%
XBI+1.7%
VGT+1.6%
IGV+1.5%
TAN+1.0%
ITA+0.0%prev 1D
KRE+0.0%prev 1D
XHB+0.0%prev 1D
Bellwether Singles22NBIS +6.2% · DUK +0.0%
NBIS+6.2%
BE+5.6%
FCEL+4.5%
CRWV+4.1%
CCJ+3.5%
ENPH+3.3%
ORCL+2.8%
VST+2.2%
META+1.8%
AMZN+1.6%
GOOGL+1.6%
FSLR+1.6%
GS+1.5%
TSLA+1.3%
CEG+1.1%
MSFT+1.1%
JPM+0.9%
BAC+0.5%
AAPL+0.2%
NEE+0.2%
SPCX+0.2%
DUK+0.0%prev 1D

VIX is not carried on the board (no tradeable-feed source); the Regime volatility component and Sigma Board carry the vol read.

SPY+0.99%gap n/a · open n/a
Best factor+1.48%Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch
Worst factor-0.82%Extended Momentum Risk
Breadth85%baskets +ve · A/D 381/94
Up/Down Vol19.35xvolume in advancers vs decliners

Actionable Trading Ideas

0 of 3 playbooks triggered this run. Absence of a triggered edge is a position — no forced trade.

Nearest miss: large-cap capitulation — worst 5-day drop -2.83% (needs <= -10.00%).

Three down days in an uptrendRSI(14) < 30 pullback in an uptrendFive-day capitulation in large caps

Stats are fixed-horizon, no-stop, from the quarterly-refit offline backtest; t is naive (per-name non-overlap only) — read it as a screen and weight the per-year sign consistency, not as proof of significance.

Intraday Factor Moves

LeadingOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch +1.9%Neutral / Transition +1.2%Broken Momentum / Avoid +1.2%
LaggingExtended Momentum Risk -1.4%Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation -0.3%Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend +0.0%

Top-to-bottom basket spread 3.3pp today · dispersion Styles z60 +0.4 (typical), Sectors z60 -0.5 (typical) · flow confirms none of the leaders.

Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch49 names · 98% covz +1.2+1.92%
ID+1.9%
1D+1.5%
3D-4.1%
1W-3.8%
MTD-16.9%
1M-16.5%
3M-17.1%
YTD-6.5%
1Y+13.2%
2Y+84.8%
Neutral / Transition507 names · 100% covz +1.1+1.24%
ID+1.2%
1D+0.6%
3D+0.0%
1W+0.7%
MTD-2.5%
1M-1.5%
3M+6.0%
YTD+21.2%
1Y+37.8%
2Y+58.4%
Broken Momentum / Avoid139 names · 100% covz +1.4+1.17%
ID+1.2%
1D+0.7%
3D-0.1%
1W-0.7%
MTD-2.4%
1M-1.4%
3M-15.4%
YTD-16.3%
1Y-14.1%
2Y+6.2%
Unclassified / Insufficient Data thin — n<108 names · 100% covz +0.4+0.89%
ID+0.9%
1D+0.3%
3D+0.9%
1W+0.6%
MTD-5.2%
1M-1.5%
3M+9.1%
YTD+33.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadership104 names · 100% covz +0.1+0.45%
ID+0.5%
1D+0.2%
3D+1.6%
1W+2.0%
MTD+6.3%
1M+8.4%
3M+27.5%
YTD+33.5%
1Y+44.4%
2Y+65.0%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout27 names · 100% covz -0.5+0.10%
ID+0.1%
1D+0.1%
3D+0.4%
1W+0.8%
MTD+7.6%
1M+13.2%
3M+51.3%
YTD+88.9%
1Y+149.6%
2Y+135.6%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend107 names · 98% covz -0.1+0.01%
ID+0.0%
1D+0.0%
3D+1.0%
1W+1.3%
MTD+3.2%
1M+3.2%
3M+7.2%
YTD+15.5%
1Y+19.0%
2Y+28.1%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation33 names · 100% covz -1.0-0.33%
ID-0.3%
1D-0.1%
3D+1.3%
1W+2.3%
MTD+7.5%
1M+9.3%
3M+23.1%
YTD+30.4%
1Y+39.2%
2Y+60.1%
Extended Momentum Risk31 names · 100% covz -1.9-1.41%
ID-1.4%
1D-0.8%
3D+4.2%
1W+5.7%
MTD+15.2%
1M+15.0%
3M+18.6%
YTD+27.3%
1Y+36.4%
2Y+35.9%

z = today's move vs the basket's own trailing 60-session daily distribution (current membership; partial-day moves on intraday editions). |z| ≥ 2 highlighted.

Sector Rotation

Information Technology+2.23%
Industrials+1.29%
Consumer Discretionary+1.05%
Financials+1.02%
Materials+0.86%
Communication Services+0.79%
Utilities+0.61%
Health Care+0.52%
Real Estate+0.40%
Consumer Staples+0.09%
Energy-2.55%
Themes and Keyword Baskets
Semiconductors+0.9%1D
207 names · 84% cov
ID+2.0%WTD+0.9%MTD-10.1%YTD+50.3%
Cloud Software+0.5%1D
285 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+1.5%WTD+0.5%MTD-0.9%YTD+9.4%
Crypto / Digital Assets+0.5%1D
157 names · 68% covaggregate only
ID+1.4%WTD+0.5%MTD+0.2%YTD+13.5%
AI Infrastructure+0.5%1D
919 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+1.4%WTD+0.5%MTD-4.3%YTD+17.6%
Cybersecurity+0.4%1D
100 names · 68% covaggregate only
ID+1.2%WTD+0.4%MTD-1.0%YTD+17.2%
Defense / Aerospace+0.4%1D
220 names · 76% cov
ID+1.4%WTD+0.4%MTD-7.5%YTD+24.6%
Industrial Automation+0.4%1D
540 names · 74% covaggregate only
ID+1.4%WTD+0.4%MTD-4.2%YTD+20.4%
Energy Transition+0.3%1D
286 names · 79% cov
ID+0.9%WTD+0.3%MTD-5.4%YTD+16.8%
Financials / Credit+0.2%1D
689 names · 61% cov
ID+0.9%WTD+0.2%MTD+0.9%YTD+11.0%
Macro Rates / Inflation+0.2%1D
560 names · 75% covaggregate only
ID+0.7%WTD+0.2%MTD-1.1%YTD+17.1%
Commodities / Materials+0.2%1D
184 names · 71% cov
ID+0.5%WTD+0.2%MTD-3.6%YTD+11.2%
Consumer / Retail+0.2%1D
503 names · 72% cov
ID+0.5%WTD+0.2%MTD+0.6%YTD+7.5%
Housing / Real Estate+0.1%1D
465 names · 69% cov
ID+0.6%WTD+0.1%MTD+0.5%YTD+10.4%
Healthcare / Biotech degraded+0.1%1D
721 names · 55% cov
ID+0.7%WTD+0.1%MTD-1.5%YTD+20.4%
Oil & Gas+0.0%1D
295 names · 79% cov
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD+0.1%YTD+17.8%

Semiconductors lead themes with a 2.01% intraday surge and 0.94% week-to-date, despite a -10.13% month-to-date drawdown. Cloud Software and AI Infrastructure also rally intraday, up 1.53% and 1.43%, with broad participation at 92.21% and 82.40% advancing. In contrast, Oil & Gas is flat, returning just 0.02% intraday. The rotation into growth-sensitive themes is partially offset by weakness in Commodities / Materials, which is down -0.85% over three days. Healthcare / Biotech is flagged as degraded with coverage at 55.06%, warranting caution in interpreting its numbers.

Sigma Board
−3σ0+3σ
Adv/Dec ratiobreadth · 4.05 · 60d · n=60+3.78σ
% above SMA200breadth · 69.11 · 60d · n=60+1.40σ
Duration d1spread · +0.70% · 60d · n=60+1.33σ
Momentum - LowVol d1spread · +1.93% · 252d · n=252+1.18σ
Growth - Value d1spread · +0.81% · 252d · n=252+0.96σ
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch d1basket · +1.48% · 60d · n=38+0.84σ
Neutral / Transition d1basket · +0.59% · 60d · n=38+0.81σ
Momentum - LowVol w1spread · +2.72% · 252d · n=252+0.74σ

Among style factors, High-Vol Breakdown leads with a 2.33% intraday gain, accompanied by broad participation at 98.21% advancing. Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch follows closely at +1.92% with 91.89% of names rising. In contrast, Extended Overbought Momentum declines 2.22% with zero advancers, and Momentum Breakout / Leadership edges lower by 0.04%. Low-Vol Uptrend is essentially flat at +0.05% with 51.49% advancing. This configuration signals a sharp rotation out of extended momentum and into previously beaten-down, high-volatility names.

Factor × Sector Map
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn14
Information Technology
+2.4%1D
ID+2.6%WTD+2.4%MTD-19.5%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn6
Industrials
+2.2%1D
ID+2.8%WTD+2.2%MTD-22.3%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Utilities
+2.1%1D
ID+3.2%WTD+2.1%MTD-10.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn14
Financials
+1.8%1D
ID+2.7%WTD+1.8%MTD+0.7%
Neutral / Transitionn102
Information Technology
+1.6%1D
ID+2.5%WTD+1.6%MTD-8.4%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn4
Materials
+1.4%1D
ID+1.8%WTD+1.4%MTD-12.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn6
Communication Services
+1.1%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+1.1%MTD-12.4%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn21
Information Technology
+1.1%1D
ID+1.9%WTD+1.1%MTD+0.5%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn4
Information Technology
+1.0%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+1.0%MTD+9.4%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn14
Information Technology
+1.0%1D
ID+1.7%WTD+1.0%MTD+5.2%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn5
Health Care
+0.9%1D
ID+1.1%WTD+0.9%MTD-19.7%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn6
Information Technology
+0.8%1D
ID+1.1%WTD+0.8%MTD+4.6%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn12
Materials
+0.7%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+0.7%MTD-1.3%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn23
Consumer Discretionary
+0.7%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+0.7%MTD-3.3%
Neutral / Transitionn109
Industrials
+0.6%1D
ID+1.6%WTD+0.6%MTD-4.4%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn4
Industrials
+0.6%1D
ID+1.1%WTD+0.6%MTD+3.6%
Neutral / Transitionn63
Consumer Discretionary
+0.5%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+0.5%MTD-0.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn26
Industrials
+0.5%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+0.5%MTD-8.7%
Neutral / Transitionn67
Financials
+0.5%1D
ID+1.1%WTD+0.5%MTD+2.3%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn5
Consumer Discretionary
+0.5%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+0.5%MTD-13.6%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn15
Communication Services
+0.5%1D
ID+0.7%WTD+0.5%MTD-1.3%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn15
Health Care
+0.5%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+0.5%MTD+5.8%
Unclassified / Insufficient Datan3
Information Technology
+0.4%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+0.4%MTD-6.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn11
Real Estate
+0.4%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+0.4%MTD+6.0%
Extended Momentum Riskn3
Real Estate
+0.3%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+0.3%MTD+13.9%
Neutral / Transitionn13
Materials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+0.3%MTD-4.3%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn9
Financials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+0.3%MTD+7.1%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn8
Consumer Staples
+0.3%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+0.3%MTD-1.5%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn23
Financials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.7%WTD+0.3%MTD+7.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn10
Health Care
+0.3%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+0.3%MTD-1.1%
Neutral / Transitionn15
Utilities
+0.2%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+0.2%MTD-0.1%
Neutral / Transitionn20
Communication Services
+0.2%1D
ID+0.7%WTD+0.2%MTD+0.5%
Neutral / Transitionn50
Health Care
+0.2%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.2%MTD-1.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn30
Health Care
+0.2%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+0.2%MTD+3.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn9
Real Estate
+0.2%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.2%MTD+0.2%
Neutral / Transitionn23
Real Estate
+0.2%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.2%MTD+0.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn9
Consumer Discretionary
+0.1%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.1%MTD+9.4%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn28
Financials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.1%MTD+4.0%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn8
Health Care
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+0.1%MTD+4.5%
Neutral / Transitionn27
Consumer Staples
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.1%MTD+0.2%
Extended Momentum Riskn6
Health Care
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.1%MTD+11.3%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn18
Industrials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.1%MTD+2.8%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Financials
+0.0%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.0%MTD-18.1%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn19
Real Estate
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD+4.5%
Extended Momentum Riskn3
Financials
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD+19.5%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn6
Industrials
+0.0%1D
ID·WTD+0.0%MTD+6.6%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn3
Information Technology
+0.0%1D
ID·WTD+0.0%MTD+0.1%
Extended Momentum Riskn8
Industrials
-0.0%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-0.0%MTD+13.0%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn26
Utilities
-0.1%1D
ID-0.2%WTD-0.1%MTD+2.9%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn6
Consumer Staples
-0.1%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-0.1%MTD+9.1%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn4
Consumer Staples
-0.1%1D
ID-0.5%WTD-0.1%MTD+0.5%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn4
Consumer Discretionary
-0.2%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-0.2%MTD+9.5%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn5
Materials
-0.3%1D
ID-0.5%WTD-0.3%MTD+8.4%
Neutral / Transitionn18
Energy
-1.3%1D
ID-1.9%WTD-1.3%MTD+2.9%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn5
Energy
-2.4%1D
ID-3.0%WTD-2.4%MTD+12.6%
Extended Momentum Riskn8
Energy
-3.5%1D
ID-3.5%WTD-3.5%MTD+15.6%
Where each factor basket is working by sector — sorted by 1-day equal-weight return, ≥3 names per cell.
Regime Assessment
14 days · 58 runs · 6 published flips · raw≠published on 7 runs · raw label unavailable before Jul 10
Risk-Off Stress
Distribution Risk
Choppy Neutral
Constructive Rotation
Risk-On Trend
-0.70-0.15+0.55+0.90
Jul 8Jul 13Jul 16Jul 21Jul 24
8 expected runs missing in window
Choppy Neutral
published label · 2-run confirmation applied

Composite vs label bands, trailing month, all 5 editions/day. Ring = raw label disagreed with the published (confirmation-lag pressure). Y clamped to ±1.3.

trend+0.25
breadth+1.60
volatility+1.00
rotation-1.60
size-0.20
style+0.25
p(stay 1d)0.87
p(persist 5d)0.55
expected dwell7.7 td
samplen=506

Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — size positions to the risk state, don't chase the label. Transition is empirical; a label change needs two-run confirmation.

The Choppy Neutral regime holds with a composite score of 0.38 and 87% confidence. It began on July 23 and has an expected dwell of 7.7 trading days, with 5.7 days remaining. The rotation component is negative at -1.6 due to leadership flips, while breadth and volatility scores are neutral-positive. Historical exits from this regime most often lead to Constructive Rotation (52.5%) or Distribution Risk (28.8%), and the regime label reflects a state that historically precedes elevated two-sided volatility without a directional bias.

Top Single-Stock Setups (4h–1 Week)

#1SJMConsumer Staples100
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.4/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 611w +5.6%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$118.32
RSI61
1wk+5.6%
ATR stop−4.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=104)
-12%+16%
#2CPAYInformation Technology99
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.4/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 591w +1.3%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$370.58
RSI59
1wk+1.3%
ATR stop−4.5%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=104)
-12%+16%
#3CTREReal Estate98
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.4/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 631w +0.9%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$43.25
RSI63
1wk+0.9%
ATR stop−3.6%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=104)
-12%+16%
#4HPQInformation Technology98
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout · factor score 7.2/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 611w +3.7%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$25.75
RSI62
1wk+3.7%
ATR stop−6.0%
1-week return vs Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout basket (n=27)
-15%+8%
#5HRReal Estate98
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.0/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 621w +0.4%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$21.40
RSI62
1wk+0.4%
ATR stop−2.6%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=104)
-12%+16%

Long-only opportunity lens: names where the factor basket and the technical state agree over a 4-hour-to-1-week window. Confluence score, not a price target — size to the ATR stop and treat every setup as a probability, not a promise.

Long-only confluence screen: the factor engine's basket and the technical state pointing the same way over a 4-hour-to-1-week window.