Premarket · market state
Choppy Neutral
BeganThu Jul 23 · close · 16:00 ETheld 2 td
Typical dwell~7.7 tdp(stay 1d) 0.87 · fresh
Implied through~Tue Aug 4~6 td left
When it breaks, historically →→ Constructive Rotation 52%→ Distribution Risk 29%→ Risk-Off Stress 10%→ Risk-On Trend 8%
2td in — ~6td of typical dwell leftfresh
age 2tdtypical dwell ~8td
SPY +0.99% since prior close; Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch leads (+1.48%), Extended Momentum Risk lags (-0.82%).
Risk-STATE gauge — monotone in forward volatility, not direction. Size to the state; don't chase the label.
Regime Playbook — Choppy Neutral
History says after Choppy Neutral days like today: Gold & Semis lead, Staples & REITs lag the next session.
TOMORROWForward lean — next session, relative to SPYtradeable
−16 bp0+16 bp
Historically lead
Gold GLDhit 50% · n 287 · skewed: few big days+16 bp Semis SMHhit 56% · n 505+14 bp Tech XLKhit 55% · n 505+6 bp Biotech XBIhit 49% · n 505 · skewed: few big days+5 bp · 22 more cells between -6 and +4 bp/d ·
Historically lag
Low Vol SPLVhit 46% · n 505-6 bp Utilities XLUhit 45% · n 505-6 bp REITs XLREhit 48% · n 505-7 bp Staples XLPhit 43% · n 505-9 bp TODAYWhat usually moves WITH this tape — state description, not a signalcontext
−17 bp0+17 bp
Gold GLDhit 50% · n 283+17 bp Semis SMHhit 54% · n 506+12 bp Regional Banks KREhit 48% · n 283 · skewed: few big days+5 bp · 24 more cells between -4 and +5 bp/d ·
Materials XLBhit 48% · n 506-4 bp Health Care XLVhit 47% · n 506-5 bp HY Credit HYGhit 45% · n 506-6 bp bp/day relative to SPY · bar scale = largest shown tilt per ladder (printed on the axis) · n≈505 days per cell · empirical rel-SPY tilts, 2021-07-26..2026-07-22, labels=v1.1+2-run, min-n 60, refit annually. TOMORROW is the tradeable lean (reversion-flavored at extremes); TODAY only describes the tape.
Intelligence Summary
Session
The current regime is Choppy Neutral with a composite score of 0.38 and 0.87 confidence. Breadth measures are constructive: 64.09% of stocks are above their 50-day moving averages and 69.11% above their 200-day, while the advance-decline line stands at 381 advancers to 94 decliners. Across baskets, 85.42% are positive. Leading the premarket session, the High-Vol Breakdown style basket is up 2.33% and Information Technology sector gains 2.23%. On the downside, Energy lags at -2.55% and Extended Overbought Momentum drops 2.22%.
Session Snapshot →Factors
Within our production baskets, Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch jumps 1.92% intraday, while Broken Momentum / Avoid adds 1.17% and Neutral / Transition gains 1.24%. Conversely, Extended Momentum Risk drops 1.41% and Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation slips 0.33%. Key spreads show Momentum Leadership – Broken Momentum widening to -1.50% and Quality – Extended Risk moving to +1.42%. The Momentum – LowVol spread stands at 1.9257 week-to-date, indicating a continued unwind of momentum relative to low-volatility strategies.
Intraday Factor Moves →Sectors
Information Technology leads the session with a 2.23% intraday gain and 1.43% week-to-date, while Energy lags sharply at -2.55% intraday and -2.09% week-to-date. Sector breadth supports the rotation: 95.33% of Technology names advanced intraday versus only 6.25% in Energy. Month-to-date, Energy holds a 7.46% gain, but the intraday reversal signals a potential pause. Other notable moves include Industrials and Health Care showing resilience with wtd gains of 0.52% and 0.24%, respectively, while Communication Services continues to underperform with a -2.94% weekly decline.
Sector Rotation →Connections
- Adv/Dec ratio is stretched at +3.8σ — mean-reversion pressure. Sigma Board →
- Sharpest cell: Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch × Information Technology +2.4% (n14) vs Extended Momentum Risk × Energy -3.5% (n8) — long/short the spread, not the index. Factor × Sector →
- Rotation spread: Information Technology +1.4% over Energy -2.1% (3.5pp). Sector Rotation →
Session Snapshot
CAC +0.60mixed
−risk-off0+risk-on
Equitiesbroad index tape · 6/6 adv
+1.02%med
Rates & Creditduration + credit spread · 4/4 adv
+0.17%med
Commodities & FXgold · oil · the dollar · 3/5 adv
+1.19%med
Globalint'l / EM equity · 8/8 adv
+1.59%med
Global15EWY +3.4% · FLCH +0.0%
Industry Themes11DRAM +4.9% · XHB +0.0%
Bellwether Singles22NBIS +6.2% · DUK +0.0%
VIX is not carried on the board (no tradeable-feed source); the Regime volatility component and Sigma Board carry the vol read.
SPY+0.99%gap n/a · open n/a
Best factor+1.48%Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch
Worst factor-0.82%Extended Momentum Risk
Breadth85%baskets +ve · A/D 381/94
Up/Down Vol19.35xvolume in advancers vs decliners
Actionable Trading Ideas
0 of 3 playbooks triggered this run. Absence of a triggered edge is a position — no forced trade.
Nearest miss: large-cap capitulation — worst 5-day drop -2.83% (needs <= -10.00%).
Three down days in an uptrendRSI(14) < 30 pullback in an uptrendFive-day capitulation in large caps
Stats are fixed-horizon, no-stop, from the quarterly-refit offline backtest; t is naive (per-name non-overlap only) — read it as a screen and weight the per-year sign consistency, not as proof of significance.
Intraday Factor Moves
LeadingOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch +1.9%Neutral / Transition +1.2%Broken Momentum / Avoid +1.2%
LaggingExtended Momentum Risk -1.4%Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation -0.3%Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend +0.0%
Top-to-bottom basket spread 3.3pp today · dispersion Styles z60 +0.4 (typical), Sectors z60 -0.5 (typical) · flow confirms none of the leaders.
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch49 names · 98% covz +1.2+1.92%
ID+1.9%
1D+1.5%
3D-4.1%
1W-3.8%
MTD-16.9%
1M-16.5%
3M-17.1%
YTD-6.5%
1Y+13.2%
2Y+84.8%
Neutral / Transition507 names · 100% covz +1.1+1.24%
ID+1.2%
1D+0.6%
3D+0.0%
1W+0.7%
MTD-2.5%
1M-1.5%
3M+6.0%
YTD+21.2%
1Y+37.8%
2Y+58.4%
Broken Momentum / Avoid139 names · 100% covz +1.4+1.17%
ID+1.2%
1D+0.7%
3D-0.1%
1W-0.7%
MTD-2.4%
1M-1.4%
3M-15.4%
YTD-16.3%
1Y-14.1%
2Y+6.2%
Unclassified / Insufficient Data thin — n<108 names · 100% covz +0.4+0.89%
ID+0.9%
1D+0.3%
3D+0.9%
1W+0.6%
MTD-5.2%
1M-1.5%
3M+9.1%
YTD+33.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadership104 names · 100% covz +0.1+0.45%
ID+0.5%
1D+0.2%
3D+1.6%
1W+2.0%
MTD+6.3%
1M+8.4%
3M+27.5%
YTD+33.5%
1Y+44.4%
2Y+65.0%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout27 names · 100% covz -0.5+0.10%
ID+0.1%
1D+0.1%
3D+0.4%
1W+0.8%
MTD+7.6%
1M+13.2%
3M+51.3%
YTD+88.9%
1Y+149.6%
2Y+135.6%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend107 names · 98% covz -0.1+0.01%
ID+0.0%
1D+0.0%
3D+1.0%
1W+1.3%
MTD+3.2%
1M+3.2%
3M+7.2%
YTD+15.5%
1Y+19.0%
2Y+28.1%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation33 names · 100% covz -1.0-0.33%
ID-0.3%
1D-0.1%
3D+1.3%
1W+2.3%
MTD+7.5%
1M+9.3%
3M+23.1%
YTD+30.4%
1Y+39.2%
2Y+60.1%
Extended Momentum Risk31 names · 100% covz -1.9-1.41%
ID-1.4%
1D-0.8%
3D+4.2%
1W+5.7%
MTD+15.2%
1M+15.0%
3M+18.6%
YTD+27.3%
1Y+36.4%
2Y+35.9%
z = today's move vs the basket's own trailing 60-session daily distribution (current membership; partial-day moves on intraday editions). |z| ≥ 2 highlighted.
Sector Rotation
Information Technology+2.23%
Industrials+1.29%
Consumer Discretionary+1.05%
Financials+1.02%
Materials+0.86%
Communication Services+0.79%
Utilities+0.61%
Health Care+0.52%
Real Estate+0.40%
Consumer Staples+0.09%
Energy-2.55%
Themes and Keyword Baskets
Semiconductors+0.9%1D
207 names · 84% cov
ID+2.0%WTD+0.9%MTD-10.1%YTD+50.3%
Cloud Software+0.5%1D
285 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+1.5%WTD+0.5%MTD-0.9%YTD+9.4%
Crypto / Digital Assets+0.5%1D
157 names · 68% covaggregate only
ID+1.4%WTD+0.5%MTD+0.2%YTD+13.5%
AI Infrastructure+0.5%1D
919 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+1.4%WTD+0.5%MTD-4.3%YTD+17.6%
Cybersecurity+0.4%1D
100 names · 68% covaggregate only
ID+1.2%WTD+0.4%MTD-1.0%YTD+17.2%
Defense / Aerospace+0.4%1D
220 names · 76% cov
ID+1.4%WTD+0.4%MTD-7.5%YTD+24.6%
Industrial Automation+0.4%1D
540 names · 74% covaggregate only
ID+1.4%WTD+0.4%MTD-4.2%YTD+20.4%
Energy Transition+0.3%1D
286 names · 79% cov
ID+0.9%WTD+0.3%MTD-5.4%YTD+16.8%
Financials / Credit+0.2%1D
689 names · 61% cov
ID+0.9%WTD+0.2%MTD+0.9%YTD+11.0%
Macro Rates / Inflation+0.2%1D
560 names · 75% covaggregate only
ID+0.7%WTD+0.2%MTD-1.1%YTD+17.1%
Commodities / Materials+0.2%1D
184 names · 71% cov
ID+0.5%WTD+0.2%MTD-3.6%YTD+11.2%
Consumer / Retail+0.2%1D
503 names · 72% cov
ID+0.5%WTD+0.2%MTD+0.6%YTD+7.5%
Housing / Real Estate+0.1%1D
465 names · 69% cov
ID+0.6%WTD+0.1%MTD+0.5%YTD+10.4%
Healthcare / Biotech degraded+0.1%1D
721 names · 55% cov
ID+0.7%WTD+0.1%MTD-1.5%YTD+20.4%
Oil & Gas+0.0%1D
295 names · 79% cov
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD+0.1%YTD+17.8%
Semiconductors lead themes with a 2.01% intraday surge and 0.94% week-to-date, despite a -10.13% month-to-date drawdown. Cloud Software and AI Infrastructure also rally intraday, up 1.53% and 1.43%, with broad participation at 92.21% and 82.40% advancing. In contrast, Oil & Gas is flat, returning just 0.02% intraday. The rotation into growth-sensitive themes is partially offset by weakness in Commodities / Materials, which is down -0.85% over three days. Healthcare / Biotech is flagged as degraded with coverage at 55.06%, warranting caution in interpreting its numbers.
Sigma Board
−3σ0+3σ
Adv/Dec ratiobreadth · 4.05 · 60d · n=60+3.78σ
% above SMA200breadth · 69.11 · 60d · n=60+1.40σ
Duration d1spread · +0.70% · 60d · n=60+1.33σ
Momentum - LowVol d1spread · +1.93% · 252d · n=252+1.18σ
Growth - Value d1spread · +0.81% · 252d · n=252+0.96σ
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch d1basket · +1.48% · 60d · n=38+0.84σ
Neutral / Transition d1basket · +0.59% · 60d · n=38+0.81σ
Momentum - LowVol w1spread · +2.72% · 252d · n=252+0.74σ
Among style factors, High-Vol Breakdown leads with a 2.33% intraday gain, accompanied by broad participation at 98.21% advancing. Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch follows closely at +1.92% with 91.89% of names rising. In contrast, Extended Overbought Momentum declines 2.22% with zero advancers, and Momentum Breakout / Leadership edges lower by 0.04%. Low-Vol Uptrend is essentially flat at +0.05% with 51.49% advancing. This configuration signals a sharp rotation out of extended momentum and into previously beaten-down, high-volatility names.
Factor × Sector Map
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn14
Information Technology
+2.4%1D
ID+2.6%WTD+2.4%MTD-19.5%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn6
Industrials
+2.2%1D
ID+2.8%WTD+2.2%MTD-22.3%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Utilities
+2.1%1D
ID+3.2%WTD+2.1%MTD-10.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn14
Financials
+1.8%1D
ID+2.7%WTD+1.8%MTD+0.7%
Neutral / Transitionn102
Information Technology
+1.6%1D
ID+2.5%WTD+1.6%MTD-8.4%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn4
Materials
+1.4%1D
ID+1.8%WTD+1.4%MTD-12.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn6
Communication Services
+1.1%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+1.1%MTD-12.4%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn21
Information Technology
+1.1%1D
ID+1.9%WTD+1.1%MTD+0.5%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn4
Information Technology
+1.0%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+1.0%MTD+9.4%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn14
Information Technology
+1.0%1D
ID+1.7%WTD+1.0%MTD+5.2%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn5
Health Care
+0.9%1D
ID+1.1%WTD+0.9%MTD-19.7%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn6
Information Technology
+0.8%1D
ID+1.1%WTD+0.8%MTD+4.6%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn12
Materials
+0.7%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+0.7%MTD-1.3%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn23
Consumer Discretionary
+0.7%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+0.7%MTD-3.3%
Neutral / Transitionn109
Industrials
+0.6%1D
ID+1.6%WTD+0.6%MTD-4.4%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn4
Industrials
+0.6%1D
ID+1.1%WTD+0.6%MTD+3.6%
Neutral / Transitionn63
Consumer Discretionary
+0.5%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+0.5%MTD-0.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn26
Industrials
+0.5%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+0.5%MTD-8.7%
Neutral / Transitionn67
Financials
+0.5%1D
ID+1.1%WTD+0.5%MTD+2.3%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn5
Consumer Discretionary
+0.5%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+0.5%MTD-13.6%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn15
Communication Services
+0.5%1D
ID+0.7%WTD+0.5%MTD-1.3%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn15
Health Care
+0.5%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+0.5%MTD+5.8%
Unclassified / Insufficient Datan3
Information Technology
+0.4%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+0.4%MTD-6.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn11
Real Estate
+0.4%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+0.4%MTD+6.0%
Extended Momentum Riskn3
Real Estate
+0.3%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+0.3%MTD+13.9%
Neutral / Transitionn13
Materials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+0.3%MTD-4.3%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn9
Financials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+0.3%MTD+7.1%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn8
Consumer Staples
+0.3%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+0.3%MTD-1.5%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn23
Financials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.7%WTD+0.3%MTD+7.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn10
Health Care
+0.3%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+0.3%MTD-1.1%
Neutral / Transitionn15
Utilities
+0.2%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+0.2%MTD-0.1%
Neutral / Transitionn20
Communication Services
+0.2%1D
ID+0.7%WTD+0.2%MTD+0.5%
Neutral / Transitionn50
Health Care
+0.2%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.2%MTD-1.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn30
Health Care
+0.2%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+0.2%MTD+3.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn9
Real Estate
+0.2%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.2%MTD+0.2%
Neutral / Transitionn23
Real Estate
+0.2%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.2%MTD+0.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn9
Consumer Discretionary
+0.1%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.1%MTD+9.4%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn28
Financials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.1%MTD+4.0%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn8
Health Care
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+0.1%MTD+4.5%
Neutral / Transitionn27
Consumer Staples
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.1%MTD+0.2%
Extended Momentum Riskn6
Health Care
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.1%MTD+11.3%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn18
Industrials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.1%MTD+2.8%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Financials
+0.0%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.0%MTD-18.1%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn19
Real Estate
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD+4.5%
Extended Momentum Riskn3
Financials
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD+19.5%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn6
Industrials
+0.0%1D
ID·WTD+0.0%MTD+6.6%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn3
Information Technology
+0.0%1D
ID·WTD+0.0%MTD+0.1%
Extended Momentum Riskn8
Industrials
-0.0%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-0.0%MTD+13.0%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn26
Utilities
-0.1%1D
ID-0.2%WTD-0.1%MTD+2.9%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn6
Consumer Staples
-0.1%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-0.1%MTD+9.1%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn4
Consumer Staples
-0.1%1D
ID-0.5%WTD-0.1%MTD+0.5%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn4
Consumer Discretionary
-0.2%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-0.2%MTD+9.5%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn5
Materials
-0.3%1D
ID-0.5%WTD-0.3%MTD+8.4%
Neutral / Transitionn18
Energy
-1.3%1D
ID-1.9%WTD-1.3%MTD+2.9%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn5
Energy
-2.4%1D
ID-3.0%WTD-2.4%MTD+12.6%
Extended Momentum Riskn8
Energy
-3.5%1D
ID-3.5%WTD-3.5%MTD+15.6%
Where each factor basket is working by sector — sorted by 1-day equal-weight return, ≥3 names per cell.
Regime Assessment
14 days · 58 runs · 6 published flips · raw≠published on 7 runs · raw label unavailable before Jul 10
Risk-Off Stress
Distribution Risk
Choppy Neutral
Constructive Rotation
Risk-On Trend
-0.70-0.15+0.55+0.90Jul 8Jul 13Jul 16Jul 21Jul 24
8 expected runs missing in window
Choppy Neutral
published label · 2-run confirmation applied
Composite vs label bands, trailing month, all 5 editions/day. Ring = raw label disagreed with the published (confirmation-lag pressure). Y clamped to ±1.3.
trend+0.25
breadth+1.60
volatility+1.00
rotation-1.60
size-0.20
style+0.25
p(stay 1d)0.87
p(persist 5d)0.55
expected dwell7.7 td
samplen=506
Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — size positions to the risk state, don't chase the label. Transition is empirical; a label change needs two-run confirmation.
The Choppy Neutral regime holds with a composite score of 0.38 and 87% confidence. It began on July 23 and has an expected dwell of 7.7 trading days, with 5.7 days remaining. The rotation component is negative at -1.6 due to leadership flips, while breadth and volatility scores are neutral-positive. Historical exits from this regime most often lead to Constructive Rotation (52.5%) or Distribution Risk (28.8%), and the regime label reflects a state that historically precedes elevated two-sided volatility without a directional bias.
Top Single-Stock Setups (4h–1 Week)
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.4/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 611w +5.6%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$118.32
RSI61
1wk+5.6%
ATR stop−4.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=104)
-12%+16%
#2CPAYInformation Technology99 ▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.4/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 591w +1.3%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$370.58
RSI59
1wk+1.3%
ATR stop−4.5%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=104)
-12%+16%
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.4/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 631w +0.9%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$43.25
RSI63
1wk+0.9%
ATR stop−3.6%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=104)
-12%+16%
#4HPQInformation Technology98 ▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout · factor score 7.2/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 611w +3.7%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$25.75
RSI62
1wk+3.7%
ATR stop−6.0%
1-week return vs Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout basket (n=27)
-15%+8%
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.0/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 621w +0.4%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$21.40
RSI62
1wk+0.4%
ATR stop−2.6%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=104)
-12%+16%
Long-only opportunity lens: names where the factor basket and the technical state agree over a 4-hour-to-1-week window. Confluence score, not a price target — size to the ATR stop and treat every setup as a probability, not a promise.
Long-only confluence screen: the factor engine's basket and the technical state pointing the same way over a 4-hour-to-1-week window.Deep Data — Analyst Digest
what stands out · tap a line to jumpSize and Breadth
TAKE Large beats Nano by 0.5pp today; 64% of the universe above the 50-DMA — breadth mid-range.
>50-DMA64%share of universe
>200-DMA69%share of universe
Baskets +ve85%baskets green
Up/Down Vol19.35xvolume in advancers
Size buckets
Large (>=5B)+0.46%
1D+0.5%1W+0.7%MTD-0.6%YTD+17.7%
Small Cap $1B-$5B+0.01%
1D+0.0%1W-1.0%MTD-2.0%YTD+18.2%
Micro Cap $250M-$1B+0.00%
1D+0.0%1W-1.1%MTD-4.3%YTD+10.7%
Nano Cap <$250M+0.00%
1D+0.0%1W-4.1%MTD+11.2%YTD+31.3%
Cross-Sectional Dispersion
TAKE Dispersion is mid-range across cross-sections — no structural edge to spread trades vs index exposure.
compressed −3σ0wide +3σ
Stylesstdev 1.15pp · IQR 1.48pp · n10+0.44σ
Sectorsstdev 0.95pp · IQR 0.59pp · n11-0.48σ
Volume and Participation
No session volume yet — participation populates after the open (first read: morning edition).
Cross-Asset Confirmation
TAKE Cross-asset tape (CAC +0.60, mixed) does NOT confirm the “Choppy Neutral” equity regime — treat equity signals with less conviction until rates/credit/commodities agree.
CAC +0.60mixed
−risk-off0+risk-on
Equitiesbroad index tape · 6/6 adv
+1.02%med
Rates & Creditduration + credit spread · 4/4 adv
+0.17%med
Commodities & FXgold · oil · the dollar · 3/5 adv
+1.19%med
Globalint'l / EM equity · 8/8 adv
+1.59%med
Opportunity Watchlist
TAKE 5 names led by VG (score 89, Wave 3-5 / breakout); 1/5 confirming intraday.
89VGEnergy · Wave 3-5 / breakout · regime fit 92-5.8% fading intraday — -5.90% vs its basket
85SWKSInformation Technology · Wave 1 / accumulation · regime fit 87 fading intraday
85OKLOUtilities · Wave 1 / accumulation · regime fit 89+3.3% confirming intraday — +1.36% vs its basket
83PPCConsumer Staples · Wave 1 / accumulation · regime fit 86 fading intraday
83LYFTInformation Technology · Wave 1 / accumulation · regime fit 85 fading intraday
Multi-Horizon Context
TAKE 5 baskets trading against their monthly trend today.
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch↺ against monthly trend49 names+1.48%
1D+1.5%3D-4.1%1W-3.8%MTD-16.9%3M-17.1%YTD-6.5%
Broken Momentum / Avoid↺ against monthly trend139 names+0.70%
1D+0.7%3D-0.1%1W-0.7%MTD-2.4%3M-15.4%YTD-16.3%
Neutral / Transition↺ against monthly trend507 names+0.59%
1D+0.6%3D+0.0%1W+0.7%MTD-2.5%3M+6.0%YTD+21.2%
Unclassified / Insufficient Data↺ against monthly trend8 names+0.33%
1D+0.3%3D+0.9%1W+0.6%MTD-5.2%3M+9.1%YTD+33.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadership104 names+0.23%
1D+0.2%3D+1.6%1W+2.0%MTD+6.3%3M+27.5%YTD+33.5%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout27 names+0.07%
1D+0.1%3D+0.4%1W+0.8%MTD+7.6%3M+51.3%YTD+88.9%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend107 names+0.01%
1D+0.0%3D+1.0%1W+1.3%MTD+3.2%3M+7.2%YTD+15.5%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation33 names-0.15%
1D-0.1%3D+1.3%1W+2.3%MTD+7.5%3M+23.1%YTD+30.4%
Extended Momentum Risk↺ against monthly trend31 names-0.82%
1D-0.8%3D+4.2%1W+5.7%MTD+15.2%3M+18.6%YTD+27.3%
Data Quality and Coverage
TAKE Coverage 50.5% — below the 70% claim floor; 1 degraded basket, 4 missing report days. Read thin-basket claims accordingly.
Coverage50.5%
share of the universe with usable data this run
warn premarket rvol suppressed: <1% of a day's volume prints by 07:00 ET, so relative volume is structurally meaningless before the open
warn thin production basket: Unclassified / Insufficient Data n_members=8 (<10); exclude from broad leadership claims
Degraded baskets
theme:Healthcare / Biotech
Missing report days (4)
2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07