Close · market state
Choppy Neutral
BeganThu Jul 23 · close · 16:00 ETheld 3 td
Typical dwell~7.7 tdp(stay 1d) 0.87 · fresh
Implied through~Tue Aug 4~5 td left
When it breaks, historically →→ Constructive Rotation 52%→ Distribution Risk 29%→ Risk-Off Stress 10%→ Risk-On Trend 8%
3-day tape
month →
3td in — ~5td of typical dwell leftfresh
age 3tdtypical dwell ~8td

SPY +0.26% since prior close; Extended Momentum Risk leads (+2.34%), Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch lags (-2.06%).

Risk-STATE gauge — monotone in forward volatility, not direction. Size to the state; don't chase the label.

Regime Playbook — Choppy Neutral

History says after Choppy Neutral days like today: Gold & Semis lead, Staples & REITs lag the next session.

TOMORROWForward lean — next session, relative to SPYtradeable
−16 bp0+16 bp
Historically lead
Gold GLDhit 50% · n 287 · skewed: few big days+16 bp
Semis SMHhit 56% · n 505+14 bp
Tech XLKhit 55% · n 505+6 bp
Biotech XBIhit 49% · n 505 · skewed: few big days+5 bp
· 22 more cells between -6 and +4 bp/d ·
Historically lag
Low Vol SPLVhit 46% · n 505-6 bp
Utilities XLUhit 45% · n 505-6 bp
REITs XLREhit 48% · n 505-7 bp
Staples XLPhit 43% · n 505-9 bp
Today's tape vs this playbook2/4 tracking

biggest divergence: SMH -3.5% rel vs a +12bp/d historical tilt

TODAYWhat usually moves WITH this tape — state description, not a signalcontext
−17 bp0+17 bp
Gold GLDhit 50% · n 283+17 bp
Semis SMHhit 54% · n 506+12 bp
Regional Banks KREhit 48% · n 283 · skewed: few big days+5 bp
· 24 more cells between -4 and +5 bp/d ·
Materials XLBhit 48% · n 506-4 bp
Health Care XLVhit 47% · n 506-5 bp
HY Credit HYGhit 45% · n 506-6 bp

bp/day relative to SPY · bar scale = largest shown tilt per ladder (printed on the axis) · n≈505 days per cell · empirical rel-SPY tilts, 2021-07-26..2026-07-22, labels=v1.1+2-run, min-n 60, refit annually. TOMORROW is the tradeable lean (reversion-flavored at extremes); TODAY only describes the tape.

Intelligence Summary

Session

The session closed in a Choppy Neutral regime with a composite of 0.1375 and 87% confidence, historically preceding elevated volatility. Breadth leaned positive with 663 advancers against 336 decliners and 68.4% of stocks above their 50-day moving average. The Equal-Weight minus Cap-Weight spread widened 0.89%, while Semis lagged the market by 3.46%. Leading factors included Extended Momentum Risk (+2.34%) and Communication Services (+2.03%), while Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch fell 2.06%.

Session Snapshot →
Factors

Among production factors, Extended Momentum Risk led with a 2.34% intraday gain and 4.41% week-to-date, extending its month-to-date advance to 22.59%. Thematic Momentum Leadership added 1.53% on the session and 9.03% MTD. Conversely, Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch dropped 2.06% intraday and 3.07% WTD, deepening its MTD loss to 18.33%. Breadth was supportive: Extended Momentum Risk posted 84.2% advancing members and median relative volume of 1.09, while Oversold saw only 30.6% advancing and rvol of 0.99.

Intraday Factor Moves →
Sectors

Sector rotation favored defensive and communication names, with Communication Services surging 2.03% on 86% advancing breadth and week-to-date gains of 4.29%. Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary followed with intraday gains of 1.81% and 1.71%, respectively, both with advancing breadth above 80%. Energy pulled back 1.39%, struggling with only 15.4% advancing members, and Technology shed 1.20%. Month-to-date, Technology and Industrials remain negative at -5.78% and -4.16%, while Financials and Energy hold MTD gains of 5.47% and 5.09%.

Sector Rotation →
Connections
  • Momentum - LowVol w1 is stretched at -3.1σ — mean-reversion pressure. Sigma Board →
  • Growth - Value w1 is stretched at -3.0σ — mean-reversion pressure. Sigma Board →
  • Sharpest cell: Broken Momentum / Avoid × Communication Services +3.2% (n15) vs Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch × Industrials -4.7% (n9) — long/short the spread, not the index. Factor × Sector →
  • Rotation spread: Communication Services +2.0% over Energy -1.4% (3.4pp). Sector Rotation →

Session Snapshot

CAC -0.55mixed
−risk-off0+risk-on
Equitiesbroad index tape · 6/8 adv
+0.25%med
Rates & Creditduration + credit spread · 11/12 adv
+0.22%med
Commodities & FXgold · oil · the dollar · 0/5 adv
-1.97%med
Globalint'l / EM equity · 8/15 adv
+0.04%med
US Benchmarks8
RSP+1.1%rvol 1.8
DIA+1.1%rvol 1.5
IJR+0.4%rvol 0.8
SPY+0.3%rvol 0.9
VTI+0.2%rvol 1.0
IWM+0.0%rvol 1.1
MDY-0.0%rvol 0.6
QQQ-0.9%rvol 1.4
Rates & Credit12
TLT+0.6%rvol 1.0
VCLT+0.4%rvol 0.7
LQD+0.3%rvol 0.9
IEF+0.3%rvol 0.6
VCIT+0.2%rvol 0.7
PFF+0.2%rvol 1.3
FALN+0.2%rvol 0.6
HYG+0.1%rvol 1.0
ANGL+0.1%rvol 0.6
SHY+0.1%rvol 0.7
SRLN+0.0%rvol 0.5
JAAA-0.0%rvol 1.8
Commodities & FX5
UUP-0.1%rvol 0.6
GLD-1.4%rvol 0.8
IBIT-2.0%rvol 0.8
SLV-2.3%rvol 0.8
USO-3.5%rvol 1.3
Global15KWEB +1.1% · EWY -5.5%
KWEB+1.1%rvol 0.7
FLIN+1.0%rvol 0.4
FXI+1.0%rvol 0.8
VGK+0.5%rvol 0.8
EWZ+0.4%rvol 0.8
EFV+0.3%rvol 1.1
FLCH+0.2%rvol 0.8
EFA+0.0%rvol 0.9
VXUS-0.5%rvol 1.1
EWO-0.6%rvol 0.4
FLJP-1.7%rvol 0.4
EWJ-1.8%rvol 1.1
EEM-1.9%rvol 1.3
FLKR-5.2%rvol 1.0
EWY-5.5%rvol 1.3
Style & Factor11
SPLV+1.1%rvol 0.9
USMV+1.1%rvol 1.0
IWD+0.9%rvol 0.6
JEPI+0.7%rvol 1.2
QUAL+0.6%rvol 1.1
VTV+0.6%rvol 1.2
VUG-0.0%rvol 1.2
IWF-0.5%rvol 0.6
VLUE-0.9%rvol 0.4
SPHB-1.7%rvol 1.2
MTUM-3.2%rvol 1.9
Sectors11
XLV+2.5%rvol 1.4
XLP+2.0%rvol 2.1
XLB+1.9%rvol 1.1
XLC+1.8%rvol 0.8
XLY+1.3%rvol 0.7
XLF+1.1%rvol 0.9
XLRE+0.8%rvol 1.3
XLU+0.1%rvol 0.9
XLI-0.4%rvol 1.0
XLE-1.1%rvol 1.0
XLK-1.8%rvol 1.2
Industry Themes11KRE +1.6% · DRAM -8.6%
KRE+1.6%rvol 0.9
IGV+0.8%rvol 1.9
ITA+0.2%rvol 1.1
XHB+0.2%rvol 0.8
ARKK-0.6%rvol 1.1
XBI-0.9%rvol 1.1
VGT-1.3%rvol 1.4
SMH-3.2%rvol 1.6
SOXX-4.4%rvol 1.6
TAN-4.9%rvol 5.4
DRAM-8.6%rvol 1.3
Bellwether Singles22GOOGL +2.3% · BE -10.1%
GOOGL+2.3%rvol 0.9
SPCX+2.2%rvol 1.2
MSFT+1.0%rvol 1.0
NEE+1.0%rvol 0.8
DUK+1.0%rvol 0.8
AAPL+0.7%rvol 0.9
BAC+0.6%rvol 0.8
ORCL+0.6%rvol 0.7
JPM+0.1%rvol 0.6
META+0.0%rvol 0.6
AMZN-0.2%rvol 0.8
GS-1.0%rvol 1.0
TSLA-1.1%rvol 1.0
FSLR-2.1%rvol 1.1
CCJ-2.7%rvol 0.9
CEG-3.8%rvol 0.8
ENPH-4.6%rvol 1.6
CRWV-5.0%rvol 1.3
VST-5.8%rvol 1.6
FCEL-8.2%rvol 0.8
NBIS-9.8%rvol 1.7
BE-10.1%rvol 1.9

VIX is not carried on the board (no tradeable-feed source); the Regime volatility component and Sigma Board carry the vol read.

SPY+0.26%gap +0.01% · open +0.25%
Best factor+2.34%Extended Momentum Risk
Worst factor-2.06%Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch
Breadth60%baskets +ve · A/D 663/336
Up/Down Vol1.42xvolume in advancers vs decliners

Actionable Trading Ideas

0 of 3 playbooks triggered this run. Absence of a triggered edge is a position — no forced trade.

Nearest miss: large-cap capitulation — worst 5-day drop -5.09% (needs <= -10.00%).

Three down days in an uptrendRSI(14) < 30 pullback in an uptrendFive-day capitulation in large caps

Stats are fixed-horizon, no-stop, from the quarterly-refit offline backtest; t is naive (per-name non-overlap only) — read it as a screen and weight the per-year sign consistency, not as proof of significance.

Intraday Factor Moves

LeadingExtended Momentum Risk +2.3%Thematic Momentum Leadership +1.5%Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend +1.1%
LaggingOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch -2.1%Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout +0.0%Neutral / Transition +0.1%

Top-to-bottom basket spread 4.4pp today · dispersion Sectors z60 +0.1 (typical), Styles z60 -0.8 (typical) · flow confirms 2/3 leaders.

Extended Momentum Risk19 names · 100% covz +1.8+2.34%
ID+2.3%
1D+2.3%
3D+8.4%
1W+9.6%
MTD+22.6%
1M+22.0%
3M+26.9%
YTD+25.1%
1Y+32.2%
2Y+37.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadership100 names · 100% covz +1.4+1.53%
ID+1.5%
1D+1.5%
3D+4.0%
1W+3.0%
MTD+9.0%
1M+9.8%
3M+28.7%
YTD+31.4%
1Y+39.8%
2Y+60.2%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend107 names · 98% covz +1.4+1.12%
ID+1.1%
1D+1.1%
3D+2.7%
1W+2.8%
MTD+4.5%
1M+3.8%
3M+8.6%
YTD+16.3%
1Y+18.6%
2Y+28.2%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation37 names · 100% covz +0.7+0.83%
ID+0.8%
1D+0.8%
3D+2.4%
1W+3.7%
MTD+10.0%
1M+10.4%
3M+25.3%
YTD+30.4%
1Y+38.8%
2Y+66.4%
Unclassified / Insufficient Data thin — n<108 names · 100% covz +0.3+0.67%
ID+0.7%
1D+0.7%
3D+3.6%
1W+0.5%
MTD-2.4%
1M+0.4%
3M+12.3%
YTD+37.0%
Broken Momentum / Avoid123 names · 100% covz +0.7+0.54%
ID+0.5%
1D+0.5%
3D+2.5%
1W+0.5%
MTD-3.6%
1M-3.9%
3M-15.0%
YTD-15.2%
1Y-12.9%
2Y+29.3%
Neutral / Transition550 names · 100% covz -0.0+0.15%
ID+0.1%
1D+0.1%
3D+1.1%
1W+0.4%
MTD-1.3%
1M-1.0%
3M+5.9%
YTD+18.8%
1Y+33.6%
2Y+58.1%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout24 names · 100% covz -0.5+0.01%
ID+0.0%
1D+0.0%
3D+1.0%
1W+0.2%
MTD+8.3%
1M+11.9%
3M+52.0%
YTD+91.7%
1Y+152.2%
2Y+126.2%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch37 names · 97% covz -1.2-2.06%
ID-2.1%
1D-2.1%
3D-6.9%
1W-9.4%
MTD-18.3%
1M-19.2%
3M-18.6%
YTD+1.0%
1Y+27.7%
2Y+78.9%

z = today's move vs the basket's own trailing 60-session daily distribution (current membership; partial-day moves on intraday editions). |z| ≥ 2 highlighted.

Sector Rotation

Communication Services+2.03%
Consumer Staples+1.81%
Consumer Discretionary+1.71%
Health Care+1.61%
Financials+1.18%
Real Estate+1.15%
Materials+0.40%
Utilities-0.11%
Industrials-0.79%
Information Technology-1.20%
Energy-1.39%
Themes and Keyword Baskets
Consumer / Retail+0.8%1D
503 names · 72% cov
ID+1.4%WTD+2.7%MTD+3.1%YTD+9.8%
Financials / Credit+0.8%1D
689 names · 61% cov
ID+1.5%WTD+1.8%MTD+2.7%YTD+12.4%
Cloud Software+0.7%1D
285 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+1.1%WTD+3.4%MTD+2.3%YTD+10.8%
Housing / Real Estate+0.6%1D
465 names · 69% cov
ID+1.1%WTD+1.4%MTD+1.8%YTD+11.4%
Cybersecurity+0.6%1D
100 names · 68% covaggregate only
ID+1.0%WTD+2.8%MTD+1.5%YTD+17.9%
Macro Rates / Inflation+0.4%1D
560 names · 75% covaggregate only
ID+0.6%WTD+1.2%MTD+0.0%YTD+17.6%
Healthcare / Biotech degraded+0.3%1D
721 names · 55% cov
ID+0.8%WTD+0.9%MTD-0.4%YTD+20.7%
Crypto / Digital Assets+0.2%1D
157 names · 68% covaggregate only
ID+0.3%WTD+1.5%MTD+1.8%YTD+14.2%
AI Infrastructure-0.0%1D
919 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID-0.1%WTD+1.3%MTD-3.2%YTD+17.0%
Oil & Gas-0.2%1D
295 names · 79% cov
ID-0.3%WTD-0.5%MTD-0.4%YTD+16.5%
Industrial Automation-0.2%1D
540 names · 74% covaggregate only
ID-0.4%WTD+0.5%MTD-3.9%YTD+19.3%
Defense / Aerospace-0.4%1D
220 names · 76% cov
ID-0.8%WTD+0.6%MTD-7.1%YTD+23.9%
Energy Transition-0.4%1D
286 names · 79% cov
ID-0.7%WTD-0.0%MTD-5.6%YTD+15.7%
Commodities / Materials-0.5%1D
184 names · 71% cov
ID-0.8%WTD-0.3%MTD-3.9%YTD+9.9%
Semiconductors-1.4%1D
207 names · 84% cov
ID-2.1%WTD-1.2%MTD-11.4%YTD+44.7%

Thematic baskets reflected defensive and consumer strength, with Consumer / Retail adding 0.81% and Financials / Credit up 0.77% on the session. Housing / Real Estate gained 0.62%, while Cloud Software rose 0.67%. Semiconductors underperformed sharply, declining 1.42% on the day and extending its month-to-date loss to 11.44%. Industrial Automation and Defense / Aerospace also lagged, with MTD declines of 3.91% and 7.09%, respectively. The session’s breadth leaned positive, with Financials / Credit showing 81.7% advancing members and a median rvol of 0.89.

Sigma Board
−3σ0+3σ
Momentum - LowVol w1spread · -9.04% · 252d · n=252-3.15σ
Growth - Value w1spread · -5.80% · 252d · n=252-2.97σ
EqualWeight - CapWeight w1spread · +3.27% · 252d · n=252+2.91σ
Momentum - LowVol d1spread · -4.25% · 252d · n=252-2.78σ
Semis - Market w1spread · -8.11% · 252d · n=252-2.64σ
HighBeta - LowVol w1spread · -7.38% · 252d · n=252-2.17σ
% above SMA200breadth · 72.32 · 60d · n=60+2.07σ
Semis - Market d1spread · -3.46% · 252d · n=252-2.03σ

The multi-horizon spread panel shows the Momentum–LowVol spread contracting 9.35% over three days, 6.16% week-to-date, and 16.83% month-to-date. HighBeta–LowVol narrowed 5.46% (d3) and 2.82% (wtd), while Growth–Value slid 4.10% (d3) and 10.10% (mtd). Semis–Market dropped 8.85% (d3) and 18.27% (mtd). Quality–Extended Risk declined 5.73% (d3) and 18.08% (mtd). Breadth trends are improving on a three-day basis, flat week-to-date, and deteriorating over the month.

Factor × Sector Map
Broken Momentum / Avoidn15
Communication Services
+3.2%1D
ID+3.2%WTD+6.1%MTD+2.4%
Extended Momentum Riskn4
Information Technology
+3.2%1D
ID+3.2%WTD+5.0%MTD+25.0%
Extended Momentum Riskn5
Financials
+3.0%1D
ID+3.0%WTD+4.3%MTD+23.3%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn9
Health Care
+2.5%1D
ID+2.5%WTD+2.4%MTD+8.0%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn28
Health Care
+2.4%1D
ID+2.4%WTD+3.0%MTD+7.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn11
Consumer Discretionary
+2.3%1D
ID+2.3%WTD+4.0%MTD+11.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn21
Consumer Discretionary
+2.1%1D
ID+2.1%WTD+4.0%MTD-1.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn8
Real Estate
+2.0%1D
ID+2.0%WTD+2.7%MTD+2.5%
Neutral / Transitionn25
Consumer Staples
+2.0%1D
ID+2.0%WTD+4.1%MTD+4.3%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn9
Financials
+1.9%1D
ID+1.9%WTD+3.3%MTD+12.0%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn7
Communication Services
+1.9%1D
ID+1.9%WTD+3.6%MTD+6.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn7
Consumer Staples
+1.6%1D
ID+1.6%WTD+4.2%MTD+2.0%
Extended Momentum Riskn3
Industrials
+1.6%1D
ID+1.6%WTD+4.7%MTD+20.3%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn6
Consumer Staples
+1.6%1D
ID+1.6%WTD+2.5%MTD+3.1%
Neutral / Transitionn23
Real Estate
+1.6%1D
ID+1.6%WTD+1.5%MTD+2.6%
Neutral / Transitionn18
Communication Services
+1.5%1D
ID+1.5%WTD+4.1%MTD+2.3%
Neutral / Transitionn63
Consumer Discretionary
+1.5%1D
ID+1.5%WTD+3.8%MTD+2.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn22
Financials
+1.5%1D
ID+1.5%WTD+3.1%MTD+11.1%
Neutral / Transitionn61
Health Care
+1.5%1D
ID+1.5%WTD+2.4%MTD+1.0%
Neutral / Transitionn22
Materials
+1.4%1D
ID+1.4%WTD+1.8%MTD+1.4%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn5
Consumer Discretionary
+1.4%1D
ID+1.4%WTD+3.8%MTD+13.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn9
Health Care
+1.3%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+2.6%MTD-0.8%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn26
Financials
+1.3%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+1.8%MTD+5.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn17
Information Technology
+1.3%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+4.5%MTD+8.5%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn20
Utilities
+1.2%1D
ID+1.2%WTD+0.3%MTD+3.9%
Neutral / Transitionn75
Financials
+1.1%1D
ID+1.1%WTD+1.9%MTD+3.7%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn11
Real Estate
+0.8%1D
ID+0.8%WTD+1.8%MTD+6.5%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn5
Consumer Staples
+0.6%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.8%MTD+8.8%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn20
Industrials
+0.6%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+1.5%MTD+3.4%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn20
Real Estate
+0.6%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.6%MTD+5.3%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn3
Information Technology
+0.5%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+0.7%MTD+0.6%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Financials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD-1.0%MTD-19.1%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn8
Industrials
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD-0.4%MTD+9.9%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn6
Information Technology
-0.1%1D
ID-0.1%WTD+1.8%MTD+3.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn25
Industrials
-0.2%1D
ID-0.2%WTD+1.7%MTD-9.1%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn12
Health Care
-0.3%1D
ID-0.3%WTD-1.2%MTD+6.2%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Communication Services
-0.4%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-2.1%MTD-14.3%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Health Care
-0.4%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-0.4%MTD-21.4%
Neutral / Transitionn20
Utilities
-0.5%1D
ID-0.5%WTD-1.9%MTD-1.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn4
Energy
-0.5%1D
ID-0.5%WTD-3.0%MTD-1.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn9
Materials
-0.9%1D
ID-0.9%WTD-1.2%MTD-1.8%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn3
Energy
-1.0%1D
ID-1.0%WTD-0.2%MTD+19.5%
Neutral / Transitionn110
Industrials
-1.0%1D
ID-1.0%WTD-0.8%MTD-5.0%
Unclassified / Insufficient Datan3
Information Technology
-1.3%1D
ID-1.3%WTD+1.8%MTD-4.8%
Neutral / Transitionn24
Energy
-1.3%1D
ID-1.3%WTD-4.5%MTD+3.6%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn16
Information Technology
-1.6%1D
ID-1.6%WTD+2.7%MTD-9.0%
Neutral / Transitionn109
Information Technology
-1.6%1D
ID-1.6%WTD-0.7%MTD-8.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn4
Materials
-1.7%1D
ID-1.7%WTD-0.9%MTD-14.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn7
Financials
-1.7%1D
ID-1.7%WTD+1.0%MTD-4.5%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn5
Information Technology
-2.2%1D
ID-2.2%WTD-1.5%MTD+4.8%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Energy
-2.3%1D
ID-2.3%WTD-6.6%MTD-13.3%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn3
Energy
-2.9%1D
ID-2.9%WTD-10.6%MTD+11.8%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn5
Information Technology
-4.1%1D
ID-4.1%WTD-5.4%MTD-31.0%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn9
Industrials
-4.7%1D
ID-4.7%WTD-6.5%MTD-21.5%
Where each factor basket is working by sector — sorted by 1-day equal-weight return, ≥3 names per cell.
Regime Assessment
15 days · 66 runs · 6 published flips · raw≠published on 7 runs · raw label unavailable before Jul 10
Risk-Off Stress
Distribution Risk
Choppy Neutral
Constructive Rotation
Risk-On Trend
-0.70-0.15+0.55+0.90
Jul 8Jul 13Jul 16Jul 21Jul 24
8 expected runs missing in window
Choppy NeutralChoppy Neutral
published label · 2-run confirmation applied

Composite vs label bands, trailing month, all 5 editions/day. Ring = raw label disagreed with the published (confirmation-lag pressure). Y clamped to ±1.3.

trend+0.25
breadth+1.20
volatility+0.50
rotation+1.65
size-0.95
style-1.75
p(stay 1d)0.87
p(persist 5d)0.55
expected dwell7.7 td
samplen=506

Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — size positions to the risk state, don't chase the label. Transition is empirical; a label change needs two-run confirmation.

The current regime is Choppy Neutral with a composite score of 0.1375 and 87% confidence. Entered on 2026-07-23, now 3 days old, with an expected dwell of 7.7 trading days and a remaining 4.7 days, implying an end around 2026-08-04. This regime historically coincides with elevated realized volatility and frequent drawdowns. Exits most often lead to Constructive Rotation (52.5% probability) or Distribution Risk (28.8%). Style and size factors are negative (-1.75 and -0.95 respectively), while breadth remains positive (1.2) and rotation moderately favorable (1.65).

Top Single-Stock Setups (4h–1 Week)

#1CPAYInformation Technology100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.8/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 631w +2.8%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$379.71
RSI64
1wk+2.8%
ATR stop−4.4%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=100)
-14%+19%
#2BURLConsumer Discretionary100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.2/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 621w +1.7%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$358.01
RSI63
1wk+1.7%
ATR stop−5.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=100)
-14%+19%
#3HRReal Estate99
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.1/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 631w +1.3%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$21.53
RSI64
1wk+1.3%
ATR stop−2.6%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=100)
-14%+19%
#4SJMConsumer Staples99
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.7/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 641w +7.6%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$121.05
RSI65
1wk+7.6%
ATR stop−4.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=100)
-14%+19%
#5DNTHHealth Care98
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout · factor score 7.5/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 591w +3.5%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$104.49
RSI60
1wk+3.5%
ATR stop−8.3%
1-week return vs Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout basket (n=24)
-7%+10%

Long-only opportunity lens: names where the factor basket and the technical state agree over a 4-hour-to-1-week window. Confluence score, not a price target — size to the ATR stop and treat every setup as a probability, not a promise.

Long-only confluence screen: the factor engine's basket and the technical state pointing the same way over a 4-hour-to-1-week window.
BoltFactors © 2026 · CLOSE edition · 2026-07-28 · GitHub · every number is computed deterministically from report.json before narration; ideas pair today's live trigger with a static historical prior.