Midday · market state
Choppy Neutral
BeganThu Jul 23 · close · 16:00 ETheld 3 td
Typical dwell~7.7 tdp(stay 1d) 0.87 · fresh
Implied through~Tue Aug 4~5 td left
When it breaks, historically →→ Constructive Rotation 52%→ Distribution Risk 29%→ Risk-Off Stress 10%→ Risk-On Trend 8%
3-day tape
month →
3td in — ~5td of typical dwell leftfresh
age 3tdtypical dwell ~8td

SPY +0.32% since prior close; Extended Momentum Risk leads (+1.85%), Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch lags (-1.78%).

Risk-STATE gauge — monotone in forward volatility, not direction. Size to the state; don't chase the label.

Regime Playbook — Choppy Neutral

History says after Choppy Neutral days like today: Gold & Semis lead, Staples & REITs lag the next session.

TOMORROWForward lean — next session, relative to SPYtradeable
−16 bp0+16 bp
Historically lead
Gold GLDhit 50% · n 287 · skewed: few big days+16 bp
Semis SMHhit 56% · n 505+14 bp
Tech XLKhit 55% · n 505+6 bp
Biotech XBIhit 49% · n 505 · skewed: few big days+5 bp
· 22 more cells between -6 and +4 bp/d ·
Historically lag
Low Vol SPLVhit 46% · n 505-6 bp
Utilities XLUhit 45% · n 505-6 bp
REITs XLREhit 48% · n 505-7 bp
Staples XLPhit 43% · n 505-9 bp
Today's tape vs this playbook2/4 tracking

biggest divergence: SMH -3.5% rel vs a +12bp/d historical tilt

TODAYWhat usually moves WITH this tape — state description, not a signalcontext
−17 bp0+17 bp
Gold GLDhit 50% · n 283+17 bp
Semis SMHhit 54% · n 506+12 bp
Regional Banks KREhit 48% · n 283 · skewed: few big days+5 bp
· 24 more cells between -4 and +5 bp/d ·
Materials XLBhit 48% · n 506-4 bp
Health Care XLVhit 47% · n 506-5 bp
HY Credit HYGhit 45% · n 506-6 bp

bp/day relative to SPY · bar scale = largest shown tilt per ladder (printed on the axis) · n≈505 days per cell · empirical rel-SPY tilts, 2021-07-26..2026-07-22, labels=v1.1+2-run, min-n 60, refit annually. TOMORROW is the tradeable lean (reversion-flavored at extremes); TODAY only describes the tape.

Intelligence Summary

Session

The session unfolds under a Choppy Neutral regime (composite 0.0875, confidence 0.87) with moderate breadth: 68.71% of names above their 50-day moving averages and an advance-decline ratio of 1.918. Large caps lead modestly with a +0.43% intraday gain, while small caps edge +0.36%. Communication Services surges +2.16%, driven by 90.7% advancing members. Energy lags at –1.41% with only 5.13% of constituents positive. Volume favors upside with up-volume exceeding down-volume by 1.2 times. The composite slipped from a morning 0.205, reflecting shallow but directionless price action.

Session Snapshot →
Factors

Production factor baskets show a defensive tilt. Extended Momentum Risk rallies +1.85% intraday on 84.21% breadth and an rvol median of 1.36. Thematic Momentum Leadership adds +1.38% with 76.0% advancing. Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend gains +1.15% on 81.9% breadth. Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch drops –1.78% with just 30.56% advancing and elevated rvol of 1.46. Broken Momentum / Avoid rises +0.73% as 69.11% of members advance. Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation ticks +0.75%. Dispersion remains elevated, with no single factor dominating flows.

Intraday Factor Moves →
Sectors

Sector rotation midday is sharply bifurcated. Communication Services leads with an intraday gain of 2.16% and week-to-date return of 4.41%, supported by 90.7% advancing breadth. Consumer Staples adds 1.77% intraday (wtd +3.72%) on 91.5% breadth. Financials rise 1.14% intraday (wtd +2.11%) with 82.4% advancing. Energy is the clear laggard, down 1.41% intraday and 4.39% wtd, with only 5.13% of members advancing. Information Technology slips 1.11% intraday, while the Semis-Market spread widens to -3.46% intraday. The EqualWeight-CapWeight spread is positive at 0.82% intraday, signaling value outperformance over mega-cap growth.

Sector Rotation →
Connections
  • Momentum - LowVol w1 is stretched at -3.2σ — mean-reversion pressure. Sigma Board →
  • Growth - Value w1 is stretched at -3.0σ — mean-reversion pressure. Sigma Board →
  • Sharpest cell: Broken Momentum / Avoid × Communication Services +3.4% (n15) vs Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch × Information Technology -4.2% (n5) — long/short the spread, not the index. Factor × Sector →
  • Rotation spread: Communication Services +2.2% over Energy -1.4% (3.6pp). Sector Rotation →

Session Snapshot

CAC -0.55mixed
−risk-off0+risk-on
Equitiesbroad index tape · 5/8 adv
+0.30%med
Rates & Creditduration + credit spread · 11/12 adv
+0.24%med
Commodities & FXgold · oil · the dollar · 0/5 adv
-1.73%med
Globalint'l / EM equity · 8/15 adv
+0.12%med
US Benchmarks8
DIA+1.2%rvol 2.8
RSP+1.1%rvol 2.7
IJR+0.4%rvol 0.9
SPY+0.3%rvol 1.3
VTI+0.3%rvol 1.4
IWM-0.0%rvol 1.4
MDY-0.0%rvol 0.8
QQQ-0.7%rvol 2.5
Rates & Credit12
TLT+0.6%rvol 1.5
VCLT+0.5%rvol 0.7
PFF+0.3%rvol 2.0
IEF+0.3%rvol 0.8
LQD+0.3%rvol 1.1
VCIT+0.3%rvol 0.8
FALN+0.2%rvol 0.7
HYG+0.1%rvol 1.8
ANGL+0.1%rvol 0.9
SHY+0.1%rvol 1.0
SRLN+0.0%rvol 0.6
JAAA-0.0%rvol 2.4
Commodities & FX5
UUP-0.2%rvol 0.9
GLD-1.1%rvol 1.2
IBIT-1.7%rvol 1.4
SLV-2.2%rvol 1.4
USO-4.0%rvol 1.9
Global15FLIN +1.1% · EWY -4.7%
FLIN+1.1%rvol 0.5
FXI+1.1%rvol 1.4
KWEB+1.1%rvol 1.3
EWZ+0.7%rvol 1.4
VGK+0.5%rvol 1.2
EFV+0.3%rvol 2.0
FLCH+0.2%rvol 0.7
EFA+0.1%rvol 1.4
EWO-0.4%rvol 0.7
VXUS-0.4%rvol 1.6
FLJP-1.4%rvol 0.6
EWJ-1.6%rvol 1.7
EEM-1.6%rvol 2.4
FLKR-4.2%rvol 1.5
EWY-4.7%rvol 2.1
Style & Factor11
SPLV+1.3%rvol 1.3
USMV+1.2%rvol 1.4
IWD+1.0%rvol 0.8
JEPI+0.8%rvol 1.7
QUAL+0.7%rvol 1.4
VTV+0.6%rvol 2.0
VUG+0.1%rvol 2.1
IWF-0.5%rvol 0.7
VLUE-0.9%rvol 0.4
SPHB-1.9%rvol 1.8
MTUM-3.3%rvol 3.0
Sectors11
XLP+2.2%rvol 3.5
XLV+2.2%rvol 2.0
XLB+2.1%rvol 1.7
XLC+1.9%rvol 1.3
XLY+1.2%rvol 1.0
XLRE+1.2%rvol 1.8
XLF+1.0%rvol 1.3
XLU+0.7%rvol 1.4
XLI-0.4%rvol 1.4
XLE-1.3%rvol 1.5
XLK-1.6%rvol 2.0
Industry Themes11IGV +1.7% · DRAM -8.2%
IGV+1.7%rvol 1.2
KRE+1.2%rvol 1.0
XHB+0.8%rvol 1.2
ITA+0.1%rvol 1.6
ARKK-0.3%rvol 1.7
VGT-1.2%rvol 2.2
XBI-1.5%rvol 1.6
SMH-3.1%rvol 2.7
SOXX-4.4%rvol 2.7
TAN-4.5%rvol 2.7
DRAM-8.2%rvol 2.4
Bellwether Singles22MSFT +2.3% · BE -13.6%
MSFT+2.3%rvol 1.5
GOOGL+2.1%rvol 1.4
SPCX+2.0%rvol 2.1
DUK+1.5%rvol 1.1
NEE+1.5%rvol 1.1
AAPL+0.6%rvol 1.4
ORCL+0.6%rvol 1.1
BAC+0.4%rvol 1.1
META+0.1%rvol 0.8
AMZN-0.1%rvol 1.3
JPM-0.1%rvol 0.8
GS-0.5%rvol 1.5
TSLA-0.8%rvol 1.6
FSLR-2.4%rvol 1.8
CEG-2.6%rvol 1.3
CCJ-3.1%rvol 1.4
ENPH-3.8%rvol 1.8
VST-4.1%rvol 2.4
CRWV-5.4%rvol 2.2
FCEL-6.9%rvol 1.1
NBIS-10.3%rvol 2.8
BE-13.6%rvol 2.6

VIX is not carried on the board (no tradeable-feed source); the Regime volatility component and Sigma Board carry the vol read.

SPY+0.32%gap +0.01% · open +0.30%
Best factor+1.85%Extended Momentum Risk
Worst factor-1.78%Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch
Breadth62%baskets +ve · A/D 656/342
Up/Down Vol1.20xvolume in advancers vs decliners

Actionable Trading Ideas

High convictionpb:gap_fade_dn1
LONGsame-day

Fade SMH's -3.1% down-gap into the close

Down-gap fade into the close
SMH gapped -3.1% at the open · 2 proxies gapped <= -1%
n=815win 56%avg +0.34%med +0.28%t=4.92021–26
LONG · same-day (open→close) · blocked in Risk-Off Stress, Distribution Risk
InvalidationInvalidated if the gap keeps trending down through ~10:30 ET on expanding volume (not in the backtest).
why / how
EvidenceBacktested edge: n=815, 56% winners, avg +0.34% / median +0.28% per same-day open->close, t=4.9, 2021-26; per-year sign 6/6. Population = current liquid cross-section (survivorship disclosed).
ExpressTop matches by signal: SMH, XLK
FramingSmall positive-expectancy same-day mean-reversion — tiny edge, tight risk; the edge inverts in risk-off tape (blocked there).
method / provenance
v_market_proxy_daily (split-adj), dedup QUALIFY; signal = gap at t0 open (o/pc-1 <= -1%); fwd = same-day open->close; h=0 keeps every event; regime_block excludes risk-off tape; harness v1 2026-07-24; population = current-universe (survivorship disclosed); refit quarterly.

Stats are fixed-horizon, no-stop, from the quarterly-refit offline backtest; t is naive (per-name non-overlap only) — read it as a screen and weight the per-year sign consistency, not as proof of significance.

Intraday Factor Moves

LeadingExtended Momentum Risk +1.9%Thematic Momentum Leadership +1.4%Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend +1.1%
LaggingOversold / Mean-Reversion Watch -1.8%Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout -0.2%Neutral / Transition +0.2%

Top-to-bottom basket spread 3.6pp today · dispersion Sectors z60 +0.1 (typical), Styles z60 -0.8 (typical) · flow confirms 2/3 leaders.

Extended Momentum Risk19 names · 100% covz +1.4+1.85%
ID+1.9%
1D+1.9%
3D+7.9%
1W+9.1%
MTD+22.0%
1M+21.4%
3M+26.3%
YTD+24.4%
1Y+31.6%
2Y+36.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadership100 names · 100% covz +1.3+1.38%
ID+1.4%
1D+1.4%
3D+3.9%
1W+2.9%
MTD+8.9%
1M+9.7%
3M+28.5%
YTD+31.2%
1Y+39.5%
2Y+60.0%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend107 names · 98% covz +1.4+1.15%
ID+1.1%
1D+1.1%
3D+2.7%
1W+2.8%
MTD+4.5%
1M+3.9%
3M+8.6%
YTD+16.3%
1Y+18.7%
2Y+28.2%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation37 names · 100% covz +0.5+0.75%
ID+0.8%
1D+0.8%
3D+2.3%
1W+3.6%
MTD+9.9%
1M+10.3%
3M+25.1%
YTD+30.2%
1Y+38.6%
2Y+66.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoid123 names · 100% covz +0.8+0.73%
ID+0.7%
1D+0.7%
3D+2.6%
1W+0.7%
MTD-3.5%
1M-3.7%
3M-14.8%
YTD-15.1%
1Y-12.8%
2Y+29.6%
Neutral / Transition550 names · 100% covz +0.0+0.16%
ID+0.2%
1D+0.2%
3D+1.2%
1W+0.4%
MTD-1.3%
1M-1.0%
3M+5.9%
YTD+18.7%
1Y+33.4%
2Y+58.1%
Unclassified / Insufficient Data thin — n<108 names · 100% covz -0.1+0.07%
ID+0.1%
1D+0.1%
3D+3.0%
1W-0.1%
MTD-3.0%
1M-0.2%
3M+11.5%
YTD+36.0%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout24 names · 100% covz -0.7-0.17%
ID-0.2%
1D-0.2%
3D+0.8%
1W-0.0%
MTD+8.1%
1M+11.7%
3M+51.7%
YTD+91.2%
1Y+151.8%
2Y+126.0%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch37 names · 97% covz -1.1-1.78%
ID-1.8%
1D-1.8%
3D-6.7%
1W-9.2%
MTD-18.1%
1M-18.9%
3M-18.3%
YTD+1.3%
1Y+28.1%
2Y+79.3%

z = today's move vs the basket's own trailing 60-session daily distribution (current membership; partial-day moves on intraday editions). |z| ≥ 2 highlighted.

Sector Rotation

Communication Services+2.16%
Consumer Staples+1.77%
Consumer Discretionary+1.44%
Health Care+1.26%
Financials+1.14%
Real Estate+1.12%
Materials+0.55%
Utilities+0.36%
Industrials-0.56%
Information Technology-1.11%
Energy-1.41%
Themes and Keyword Baskets
Cloud Software+0.8%1D
285 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID+1.4%WTD+3.5%MTD+2.4%YTD+10.9%
Consumer / Retail+0.8%1D
503 names · 72% cov
ID+1.3%WTD+2.6%MTD+3.0%YTD+9.7%
Financials / Credit+0.7%1D
689 names · 61% cov
ID+1.5%WTD+1.8%MTD+2.7%YTD+12.3%
Housing / Real Estate+0.7%1D
465 names · 69% cov
ID+1.2%WTD+1.5%MTD+1.8%YTD+11.5%
Cybersecurity+0.7%1D
100 names · 68% covaggregate only
ID+1.1%WTD+2.9%MTD+1.6%YTD+17.9%
Macro Rates / Inflation+0.3%1D
560 names · 75% covaggregate only
ID+0.6%WTD+1.2%MTD-0.0%YTD+17.5%
Crypto / Digital Assets+0.3%1D
157 names · 68% covaggregate only
ID+0.4%WTD+1.6%MTD+1.9%YTD+14.3%
Healthcare / Biotech degraded+0.2%1D
721 names · 55% cov
ID+0.6%WTD+0.8%MTD-0.5%YTD+20.6%
AI Infrastructure-0.0%1D
919 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID-0.0%WTD+1.4%MTD-3.1%YTD+16.9%
Oil & Gas-0.1%1D
295 names · 79% cov
ID-0.1%WTD-0.4%MTD-0.3%YTD+16.6%
Industrial Automation-0.2%1D
540 names · 74% covaggregate only
ID-0.3%WTD+0.5%MTD-3.9%YTD+19.3%
Energy Transition-0.3%1D
286 names · 79% cov
ID-0.5%WTD+0.1%MTD-5.4%YTD+15.8%
Commodities / Materials-0.4%1D
184 names · 71% cov
ID-0.7%WTD-0.3%MTD-3.8%YTD+9.9%
Defense / Aerospace-0.5%1D
220 names · 76% cov
ID-0.8%WTD+0.6%MTD-7.1%YTD+23.8%
Semiconductors-1.4%1D
207 names · 84% cov
ID-2.1%WTD-1.2%MTD-11.4%YTD+44.6%

Theme performance reflects a defensive bias with a sharp semiconductor unwind. Financials/Credit leads intraday, gaining 1.47% on 81.2% advancing breadth, while Cloud Software adds 1.35% (wtd +3.53%) and Consumer/Retail rises 1.34% (wtd +2.62%). Semiconductors collapse 2.12% intraday, extending its wtd loss to 1.16% on just 43.5% advancing breadth and elevated relative volume of 1.51. Defense/Aerospace falls 0.82% intraday, and Energy Transition sheds 0.51%. Commodities/Materials and Oil & Gas are also negative. The rotation favors domestic credit and consumer-driven themes over capex-linked and commodity-exposed groups.

Sigma Board
−3σ0+3σ
Momentum - LowVol w1spread · -9.28% · 252d · n=252-3.23σ
Growth - Value w1spread · -5.88% · 252d · n=252-3.01σ
Momentum - LowVol d1spread · -4.50% · 252d · n=252-2.94σ
EqualWeight - CapWeight w1spread · +3.20% · 252d · n=252+2.85σ
Semis - Market w1spread · -8.12% · 252d · n=252-2.64σ
HighBeta - LowVol w1spread · -7.71% · 252d · n=252-2.26σ
% above SMA200breadth · 72.52 · 60d · n=60+2.11σ
Semis - Market d1spread · -3.46% · 252d · n=252-2.03σ

Intraday factor spreads reflect a strong rotation away from duration-sensitive and momentum-driven exposures. The Momentum–LowVol spread widens by –4.4958%, while HighBeta–LowVol loses –3.1758%. Semis underperform the market by –3.4554%, and Growth–Value compresses –1.4914%. Conversely, Equal-Weight outperforms Cap-Weight by +0.8159%, and Duration adds +0.5791%. Credit spreads are flat (–0.2041%). The Quality–Extended Risk spread tightens –0.70%. These moves underscore a session dominated by low-vol and quality bids, with cyclical and high-beta segments under pressure.

Factor × Sector Map
Broken Momentum / Avoidn15
Communication Services
+3.4%1D
ID+3.4%WTD+6.3%MTD+2.6%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn8
Real Estate
+2.8%1D
ID+2.8%WTD+3.5%MTD+3.3%
Extended Momentum Riskn4
Information Technology
+2.6%1D
ID+2.6%WTD+4.4%MTD+24.3%
Extended Momentum Riskn5
Financials
+2.6%1D
ID+2.6%WTD+3.9%MTD+22.8%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn9
Health Care
+2.2%1D
ID+2.2%WTD+2.2%MTD+7.8%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn11
Consumer Discretionary
+2.0%1D
ID+2.0%WTD+3.6%MTD+10.8%
Neutral / Transitionn25
Consumer Staples
+1.9%1D
ID+1.9%WTD+4.0%MTD+4.2%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn7
Communication Services
+1.9%1D
ID+1.9%WTD+3.6%MTD+6.7%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn17
Information Technology
+1.8%1D
ID+1.8%WTD+5.1%MTD+9.1%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn6
Consumer Staples
+1.8%1D
ID+1.8%WTD+2.8%MTD+3.3%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn28
Health Care
+1.8%1D
ID+1.8%WTD+2.4%MTD+7.0%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn21
Consumer Discretionary
+1.8%1D
ID+1.8%WTD+3.7%MTD-2.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn7
Consumer Staples
+1.7%1D
ID+1.7%WTD+4.2%MTD+2.1%
Neutral / Transitionn18
Communication Services
+1.7%1D
ID+1.7%WTD+4.3%MTD+2.5%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn22
Financials
+1.6%1D
ID+1.6%WTD+3.2%MTD+11.2%
Neutral / Transitionn22
Materials
+1.6%1D
ID+1.6%WTD+1.9%MTD+1.6%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn20
Utilities
+1.6%1D
ID+1.6%WTD+0.7%MTD+4.3%
Extended Momentum Riskn3
Industrials
+1.5%1D
ID+1.5%WTD+4.6%MTD+20.2%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn9
Financials
+1.5%1D
ID+1.5%WTD+2.9%MTD+11.6%
Neutral / Transitionn23
Real Estate
+1.3%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+1.3%MTD+2.4%
Neutral / Transitionn63
Consumer Discretionary
+1.3%1D
ID+1.3%WTD+3.6%MTD+1.9%
Neutral / Transitionn61
Health Care
+1.2%1D
ID+1.2%WTD+2.2%MTD+0.8%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn26
Financials
+1.2%1D
ID+1.2%WTD+1.7%MTD+5.1%
Neutral / Transitionn75
Financials
+1.1%1D
ID+1.1%WTD+1.9%MTD+3.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn9
Health Care
+1.0%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+2.3%MTD-1.1%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn5
Consumer Discretionary
+1.0%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+3.4%MTD+12.8%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn20
Industrials
+0.7%1D
ID+0.7%WTD+1.6%MTD+3.4%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn20
Real Estate
+0.5%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+0.5%MTD+5.1%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn8
Industrials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD-0.1%MTD+10.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn5
Consumer Staples
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.5%MTD+8.5%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn11
Real Estate
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+1.3%MTD+6.0%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn3
Information Technology
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.5%MTD+0.5%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn6
Information Technology
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+2.2%MTD+4.3%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Financials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.3%WTD-1.1%MTD-19.1%
Neutral / Transitionn20
Utilities
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD-1.4%MTD-1.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn25
Industrials
-0.2%1D
ID-0.2%WTD+1.8%MTD-9.1%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Communication Services
-0.4%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-2.2%MTD-14.4%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn12
Health Care
-0.6%1D
ID-0.6%WTD-1.4%MTD+5.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn4
Energy
-0.7%1D
ID-0.7%WTD-3.1%MTD-1.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn9
Materials
-0.7%1D
ID-0.7%WTD-1.0%MTD-1.6%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn16
Information Technology
-0.7%1D
ID-0.7%WTD+3.7%MTD-8.2%
Neutral / Transitionn110
Industrials
-0.7%1D
ID-0.7%WTD-0.5%MTD-4.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Health Care
-0.8%1D
ID-0.8%WTD-0.8%MTD-21.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn7
Financials
-1.2%1D
ID-1.2%WTD+1.6%MTD-4.0%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn3
Energy
-1.3%1D
ID-1.3%WTD-0.5%MTD+19.2%
Neutral / Transitionn24
Energy
-1.3%1D
ID-1.3%WTD-4.5%MTD+3.6%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn4
Materials
-1.4%1D
ID-1.4%WTD-0.7%MTD-14.4%
Neutral / Transitionn109
Information Technology
-1.6%1D
ID-1.6%WTD-0.7%MTD-8.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Energy
-1.7%1D
ID-1.7%WTD-6.0%MTD-12.8%
Unclassified / Insufficient Datan3
Information Technology
-1.9%1D
ID-1.9%WTD+1.2%MTD-5.5%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn5
Information Technology
-2.4%1D
ID-2.4%WTD-1.6%MTD+4.7%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn3
Energy
-2.5%1D
ID-2.5%WTD-10.3%MTD+12.3%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn9
Industrials
-4.0%1D
ID-4.0%WTD-5.9%MTD-21.0%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn5
Information Technology
-4.2%1D
ID-4.2%WTD-5.5%MTD-31.0%
Where each factor basket is working by sector — sorted by 1-day equal-weight return, ≥3 names per cell.
Regime Assessment
15 days · 65 runs · 6 published flips · raw≠published on 7 runs · raw label unavailable before Jul 10
Risk-Off Stress
Distribution Risk
Choppy Neutral
Constructive Rotation
Risk-On Trend
-0.70-0.15+0.55+0.90
Jul 8Jul 13Jul 16Jul 21Jul 24
8 expected runs missing in window
Choppy NeutralChoppy Neutral
published label · 2-run confirmation applied

Composite vs label bands, trailing month, all 5 editions/day. Ring = raw label disagreed with the published (confirmation-lag pressure). Y clamped to ±1.3.

trend+0.25
breadth+1.20
volatility+0.50
rotation+1.15
size-0.95
style-1.75
p(stay 1d)0.87
p(persist 5d)0.55
expected dwell7.7 td
samplen=506

Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — size positions to the risk state, don't chase the label. Transition is empirical; a label change needs two-run confirmation.

The Choppy Neutral regime has a composite reading of 0.0875 and 0.87 confidence. It began on July 23 and has an expected dwell of 7.7 days, with 4.7 days remaining. Transition probabilities favor a shift to Constructive Rotation (52.5%), while Distribution Risk has a 28.8% chance. Component-wise, breadth (1.2) and rotation (1.15) provide the only positive contributions, offset by negative style (-1.75) and size (-0.95) readings. The composite declined 0.1175 from the morning, driven by falling volatility (-1.0) and size (-0.45) scores.

Top Single-Stock Setups (4h–1 Week)

#1CPAYInformation Technology100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.8/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 631w +2.8%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$379.71
RSI64
1wk+2.8%
ATR stop−4.4%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=100)
-14%+19%
#2BURLConsumer Discretionary100
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.2/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 621w +1.7%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$358.01
RSI63
1wk+1.7%
ATR stop−5.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=100)
-14%+19%
#3HRReal Estate99
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.1/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 631w +1.3%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$21.53
RSI64
1wk+1.3%
ATR stop−2.6%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=100)
-14%+19%
#4SJMConsumer Staples99
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.7/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 641w +7.6%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$121.05
RSI65
1wk+7.6%
ATR stop−4.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=100)
-14%+19%
#5DNTHHealth Care98
▲Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout · factor score 7.5/10 (top quintile)

Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed

UptrendQ1RSI 591w +3.5%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$104.49
RSI60
1wk+3.5%
ATR stop−8.3%
1-week return vs Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout basket (n=24)
-7%+10%

Long-only opportunity lens: names where the factor basket and the technical state agree over a 4-hour-to-1-week window. Confluence score, not a price target — size to the ATR stop and treat every setup as a probability, not a promise.

Long-only confluence screen: the factor engine's basket and the technical state pointing the same way over a 4-hour-to-1-week window.
BoltFactors © 2026 · MIDDAY edition · 2026-07-28 · GitHub · every number is computed deterministically from report.json before narration; ideas pair today's live trigger with a static historical prior.