Consumer / Retail+0.1%1D
503 names · 72% cov
ID+0.3%WTD+1.9%MTD+2.3%YTD+9.1%
Premarket · market state
Choppy Neutral
BeganThu Jul 23 · close · 16:00 ETheld 3 td
Typical dwell~7.7 tdp(stay 1d) 0.87 · fresh
Implied through~Tue Aug 4~5 td left
When it breaks, historically →→ Constructive Rotation 52%→ Distribution Risk 29%→ Risk-Off Stress 10%→ Risk-On Trend 8%
3td in — ~5td of typical dwell leftfresh
age 3tdtypical dwell ~8td
SPY -0.15% since prior close; Extended Momentum Risk leads (+0.36%), Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch lags (-0.35%).
Risk-STATE gauge — monotone in forward volatility, not direction. Size to the state; don't chase the label.
Regime Playbook — Choppy Neutral
History says after Choppy Neutral days like today: Gold & Semis lead, Staples & REITs lag the next session.
TOMORROWForward lean — next session, relative to SPYtradeable
−16 bp0+16 bp
Historically lead
· 22 more cells between -6 and +4 bp/d ·
Historically lag
TODAYWhat usually moves WITH this tape — state description, not a signalcontext
−17 bp0+17 bp
· 24 more cells between -4 and +5 bp/d ·
bp/day relative to SPY · bar scale = largest shown tilt per ladder (printed on the axis) · n≈505 days per cell · empirical rel-SPY tilts, 2021-07-26..2026-07-22, labels=v1.1+2-run, min-n 60, refit annually. TOMORROW is the tradeable lean (reversion-flavored at extremes); TODAY only describes the tape.
Intelligence Summary
Session
The premarket regime is Choppy Neutral with composite 0.295, having started on 2026-07-23 and aged 3 days. Expected dwell is 7.7 trading days, leaving 4.7 days estimated. Stay probability tomorrow is 87%, exits most likely to Constructive Rotation (52.5%) or Distribution Risk (28.8%). Breadth shows 38.3% of baskets positive, advancers edge decliners 237 to 229, while 66.0% of stocks are above the 50-day and 70.8% above the 200-day moving averages.
Factors
Factor performance remains bifurcated week-to-date: Extended Momentum Risk leads with +2.38%, while Oversold/Mean-Reversion Watch is at -1.40%. The Momentum Leadership - Broken Momentum spread widened 13.71% month-to-date, underscoring persistent trend-following strength. Quality - Extended Risk spread is deeply negative at -16.75% mtd, and Semis - Market spread is -17.61% mtd, both reflecting sharp underperformance of defensive and semiconductor names. Breadth for Broken Momentum is at 51.35% advancing, contrasting with Extended Momentum Risk’s 63.64%.
Sectors
Sector rotation reflects a defensive tilt this week, with Communication Services (+2.39% wtd) and Consumer Staples (+2.17% wtd) leading, while Energy (-3.00% wtd) and Utilities (-1.07% wtd) lag. Month-to-date, Information Technology (-6.17% mtd) and Industrials (-3.72% mtd) underperform, while Energy (+6.64% mtd) remains the top sector. Breadth is mixed: 72.0% of Communication Services names advanced, but only 28.92% of Semiconductors did. The EqualWeight - CapWeight spread is positive at +2.55% mtd, indicating broadening.
Connections
- EqualWeight - CapWeight w1 is stretched at +2.5σ — mean-reversion pressure. Sigma Board →
- Semis - Market w1 is stretched at -2.4σ — mean-reversion pressure. Sigma Board →
- Sharpest cell: Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend × Consumer Staples +0.9% (n6) vs Neutral / Transition × Information Technology -1.5% (n109) — long/short the spread, not the index. Factor × Sector →
- Rotation spread: Consumer Staples +0.2% over Information Technology -1.1% (1.3pp). Sector Rotation →
- Divergence: advancers lead 237/229 but down-volume dominates (u/d 0.25) — distribution under a green tape.
Session Snapshot
CAC -0.55mixed
−risk-off0+risk-on
Equitiesbroad index tape · 2/6 adv
-0.11%med
Rates & Creditduration + credit spread · 4/4 adv
+0.13%med
Commodities & FXgold · oil · the dollar · 0/5 adv
-1.49%med
Globalint'l / EM equity · 1/7 adv
-2.37%med
Rates & Credit12
Global15FXI +0.0% · FLCH +0.0%
Style & Factor11
Sectors11
Industry Themes11IGV +0.5% · TAN +0.0%
Bellwether Singles22MSFT +1.1% · DUK +0.0%
VIX is not carried on the board (no tradeable-feed source); the Regime volatility component and Sigma Board carry the vol read.
SPY-0.15%gap n/a · open n/a
Best factor+0.36%Extended Momentum Risk
Worst factor-0.35%Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch
Breadth38%baskets +ve · A/D 237/229
Up/Down Vol0.25xvolume in advancers vs decliners
Actionable Trading Ideas
0 of 3 playbooks triggered this run. Absence of a triggered edge is a position — no forced trade.
Nearest miss: large-cap capitulation — worst 5-day drop -7.11% (needs <= -10.00%).
Three down days in an uptrendRSI(14) < 30 pullback in an uptrendFive-day capitulation in large caps
Stats are fixed-horizon, no-stop, from the quarterly-refit offline backtest; t is naive (per-name non-overlap only) — read it as a screen and weight the per-year sign consistency, not as proof of significance.
Intraday Factor Moves
LeadingExtended Momentum Risk +0.6%Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout +0.5%Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation +0.4%
LaggingNeutral / Transition -0.7%Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch -0.6%Broken Momentum / Avoid -0.3%
Top-to-bottom basket spread 1.3pp today · dispersion Sectors z60 +0.1 (typical), Styles z60 -0.8 (typical) · flow confirms 2/3 leaders.
Extended Momentum Risk19 names · 100% covz +0.2+0.61%
ID+0.6%
1D+0.4%
3D+6.2%
1W+7.4%
MTD+20.2%
1M+19.7%
3M+24.6%
YTD+23.1%
1Y+30.3%
2Y+35.1%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout24 names · 100% covz -0.2+0.46%
ID+0.5%
1D+0.1%
3D+1.2%
1W+0.3%
MTD+8.4%
1M+12.1%
3M+52.2%
YTD+92.2%
1Y+153.5%
2Y+127.1%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation37 names · 100% covz -0.0+0.36%
ID+0.4%
1D+0.2%
3D+1.8%
1W+3.1%
MTD+9.3%
1M+9.7%
3M+24.8%
YTD+30.3%
1Y+38.7%
2Y+66.3%
Thematic Momentum Leadership100 names · 100% covz -0.2+0.27%
ID+0.3%
1D+0.1%
3D+2.6%
1W+1.6%
MTD+7.5%
1M+8.3%
3M+27.0%
YTD+29.8%
1Y+38.1%
2Y+58.4%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend107 names · 98% covz +0.1+0.19%
ID+0.2%
1D+0.1%
3D+1.6%
1W+1.7%
MTD+3.4%
1M+2.8%
3M+7.5%
YTD+15.1%
1Y+17.5%
2Y+27.0%
Broken Momentum / Avoid123 names · 100% covz -0.1-0.26%
ID-0.3%
1D-0.2%
3D+1.7%
1W-0.2%
MTD-4.4%
1M-4.6%
3M-15.7%
YTD-15.7%
1Y-13.2%
2Y+29.4%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch37 names · 97% covz -0.2-0.57%
ID-0.6%
1D-0.3%
3D-5.4%
1W-7.9%
MTD-17.0%
1M-17.9%
3M-17.0%
YTD+3.3%
1Y+30.9%
2Y+82.0%
Neutral / Transition550 names · 100% covz -0.9-0.66%
ID-0.7%
1D-0.3%
3D+0.5%
1W-0.2%
MTD-2.0%
1M-1.6%
3M+5.4%
YTD+18.9%
1Y+33.9%
2Y+58.3%
Unclassified / Insufficient Data thin — n<108 names · 100% covz -0.6-0.74%
ID-0.7%
1D-0.2%
3D+2.6%
1W-0.4%
MTD-3.6%
1M-0.8%
3M+10.7%
YTD+36.3%
z = today's move vs the basket's own trailing 60-session daily distribution (current membership; partial-day moves on intraday editions). |z| ≥ 2 highlighted.
Sector Rotation
Health Care+0.42%
Consumer Staples+0.40%
Communication Services+0.34%
Real Estate+0.34%
Consumer Discretionary+0.12%
Energy+0.03%
Utilities-0.21%
Industrials-0.27%
Financials-0.35%
Materials-0.78%
Information Technology-1.50%
Themes and Keyword Baskets
Housing / Real Estate+0.1%1D
465 names · 69% cov
ID+0.2%WTD+0.8%MTD+1.2%YTD+11.0%
Cybersecurity+0.1%1D
100 names · 68% covaggregate only
ID+0.1%WTD+2.3%MTD+0.9%YTD+17.9%
Healthcare / Biotech degraded+0.0%1D
721 names · 55% cov
ID+0.2%WTD+0.6%MTD-0.7%YTD+20.5%
Financials / Credit-0.0%1D
689 names · 61% cov
ID-0.0%WTD+1.1%MTD+1.9%YTD+11.7%
Cloud Software-0.1%1D
285 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID-0.2%WTD+2.6%MTD+1.4%YTD+10.5%
Oil & Gas-0.1%1D
295 names · 79% cov
ID-0.3%WTD-0.5%MTD-0.4%YTD+16.9%
Macro Rates / Inflation-0.1%1D
560 names · 75% covaggregate only
ID-0.4%WTD+0.7%MTD-0.6%YTD+17.3%
Industrial Automation-0.2%1D
540 names · 74% covaggregate only
ID-0.7%WTD+0.5%MTD-4.0%YTD+19.7%
Commodities / Materials-0.2%1D
184 names · 71% cov
ID-0.7%WTD-0.1%MTD-3.8%YTD+10.4%
Energy Transition-0.2%1D
286 names · 79% cov
ID-0.7%WTD+0.2%MTD-5.5%YTD+16.1%
AI Infrastructure-0.2%1D
919 names · 77% covaggregate only
ID-0.7%WTD+1.1%MTD-3.5%YTD+17.2%
Defense / Aerospace-0.3%1D
220 names · 76% cov
ID-0.9%WTD+0.7%MTD-7.1%YTD+24.4%
Crypto / Digital Assets-0.4%1D
157 names · 68% covaggregate only
ID-0.9%WTD+0.9%MTD+1.2%YTD+13.8%
Semiconductors-0.9%1D
207 names · 84% cov
ID-1.8%WTD-0.7%MTD-11.2%YTD+46.2%
Thematic leadership is concentrated in Cloud Software (+2.59% wtd) and Cybersecurity (+2.26% wtd), while Semiconductors continue to bleed (-0.69% wtd, -11.19% mtd). The Semis - Market spread remains deeply negative at -17.61% mtd. Defensive themes like Consumer/Retail (+1.94% wtd) and Financials/Credit (+1.05% wtd) are holding up. The Healthcare / Biotech theme is flagged as degraded coverage (55.06%), so its +0.58% wtd return is viewed with caution. Crypto/Digital Assets are flat at +0.93% wtd.
Sigma Board
−3σ0+3σ
EqualWeight - CapWeight w1spread · +2.75% · 252d · n=252+2.46σ
Semis - Market w1spread · -7.42% · 252d · n=252-2.44σ
Momentum - LowVol w1spread · -6.75% · 252d · n=252-2.39σ
Growth - Value w1spread · -4.35% · 252d · n=252-2.19σ
% above SMA200breadth · 70.81 · 60d · n=60+1.72σ
Semis - Market d1spread · -2.74% · 252d · n=252-1.63σ
HighBeta - LowVol w1spread · -4.55% · 252d · n=252-1.40σ
Momentum - LowVol d1spread · -1.93% · 252d · n=252-1.29σ
The regime board holds at Choppy Neutral with a 0.295 composite (confidence 0.87), entering its fourth day. The volatility and rotation components jumped by 1.25 and 2.25 points respectively, offsetting weaker breadth and style signals. The fresh regime, started July 23, implies a remaining expected dwell of 4.7 trading days. Same-day tilts favor SMH (+12.2 bp), GLD (+16.8 bp), and QQQ (+3.2 bp), while low-vol and defensive tilts are negative. The most likely exit path is Constructive Rotation (52.5% probability).
Factor × Sector Map
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn6
Consumer Staples
+0.9%1D
ID+1.1%WTD+1.9%MTD+2.4%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn9
Health Care
+0.8%1D
ID+1.0%WTD+0.7%MTD+6.2%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn9
Health Care
+0.6%1D
ID+0.9%WTD+1.8%MTD-1.5%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn3
Energy
+0.5%1D
ID+0.5%WTD-7.5%MTD+15.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn15
Communication Services
+0.5%1D
ID+0.7%WTD+3.2%MTD-0.4%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn7
Consumer Staples
+0.4%1D
ID+0.7%WTD+2.9%MTD+0.7%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn17
Information Technology
+0.3%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+3.6%MTD+7.3%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn9
Financials
+0.3%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+1.7%MTD+10.3%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Health Care
+0.3%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+0.2%MTD-20.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn21
Consumer Discretionary
+0.2%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+2.1%MTD-3.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Communication Services
+0.2%1D
ID+0.3%WTD-1.6%MTD-13.9%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn20
Utilities
+0.2%1D
ID+1.0%WTD-0.7%MTD+2.9%
Neutral / Transitionn23
Real Estate
+0.2%1D
ID+0.4%WTD+0.2%MTD+1.3%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn28
Health Care
+0.2%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+0.8%MTD+5.2%
Extended Momentum Riskn3
Industrials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.5%WTD+3.1%MTD+18.5%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn12
Health Care
+0.1%1D
ID+0.4%WTD-0.7%MTD+6.7%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn8
Real Estate
+0.1%1D
ID+0.6%WTD+0.7%MTD+0.6%
Neutral / Transitionn61
Health Care
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+1.0%MTD-0.4%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn6
Information Technology
+0.1%1D
ID+0.3%WTD+2.0%MTD+4.0%
Extended Momentum Riskn4
Information Technology
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+1.8%MTD+21.2%
Neutral / Transitionn25
Consumer Staples
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+2.2%MTD+2.3%
Extended Momentum Riskn5
Financials
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+1.3%MTD+19.7%
Neutral / Transitionn18
Communication Services
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+2.6%MTD+0.8%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn11
Real Estate
+0.1%1D
ID+0.2%WTD+1.0%MTD+5.7%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn5
Consumer Staples
+0.1%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.2%MTD+8.2%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn26
Financials
+0.0%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+0.5%MTD+3.9%
Neutral / Transitionn63
Consumer Discretionary
+0.0%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+2.3%MTD+0.6%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn22
Financials
+0.0%1D
ID+0.1%WTD+1.6%MTD+9.4%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn7
Communication Services
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+1.7%MTD+4.7%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn20
Real Estate
+0.0%1D
ID+0.0%WTD+0.0%MTD+4.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Financials
+0.0%1D
ID·WTD-1.4%MTD-19.4%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakoutn5
Consumer Discretionary
+0.0%1D
ID·WTD+2.3%MTD+11.7%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn8
Industrials
-0.0%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-0.5%MTD+9.8%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn4
Energy
-0.1%1D
ID-0.1%WTD-2.5%MTD-1.2%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn20
Industrials
-0.1%1D
ID-0.2%WTD+0.8%MTD+2.7%
Thematic Momentum Leadershipn11
Consumer Discretionary
-0.1%1D
ID-0.2%WTD+1.5%MTD+8.5%
Neutral / Transitionn20
Utilities
-0.1%1D
ID-0.3%WTD-1.6%MTD-1.4%
Neutral / Transitionn110
Industrials
-0.1%1D
ID-0.3%WTD+0.0%MTD-4.3%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn3
Energy
-0.1%1D
ID-0.4%WTD+0.6%MTD+20.6%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn3
Energy
-0.1%1D
ID-0.2%WTD-4.5%MTD-11.4%
Neutral / Transitionn22
Materials
-0.2%1D
ID-0.4%WTD+0.1%MTD-0.3%
Neutral / Transitionn75
Financials
-0.2%1D
ID-0.5%WTD+0.5%MTD+2.3%
Neutral / Transitionn24
Energy
-0.3%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-3.5%MTD+4.7%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn9
Industrials
-0.3%1D
ID-0.4%WTD-2.2%MTD-18.3%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn25
Industrials
-0.3%1D
ID-0.4%WTD+1.7%MTD-9.3%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrendn3
Information Technology
-0.3%1D
ID-0.3%WTD-0.1%MTD+0.0%
Unclassified / Insufficient Datan3
Information Technology
-0.5%1D
ID-1.5%WTD+2.5%MTD-4.4%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn9
Materials
-0.7%1D
ID-1.6%WTD-1.0%MTD-1.6%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn16
Information Technology
-0.8%1D
ID-1.2%WTD+3.6%MTD-8.6%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn4
Materials
-0.8%1D
ID-1.1%WTD-0.1%MTD-14.0%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watchn5
Information Technology
-1.0%1D
ID-1.3%WTD-2.5%MTD-28.9%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulationn5
Information Technology
-1.1%1D
ID-1.4%WTD-0.3%MTD+5.9%
Broken Momentum / Avoidn7
Financials
-1.4%1D
ID-2.0%WTD+1.3%MTD-4.3%
Neutral / Transitionn109
Information Technology
-1.5%1D
ID-2.0%WTD-0.7%MTD-9.2%
Regime Assessment
15 days · 63 runs · 6 published flips · raw≠published on 7 runs · raw label unavailable before Jul 10
Risk-Off Stress
Distribution Risk
Choppy Neutral
Constructive Rotation
Risk-On Trend
-0.70-0.15+0.55+0.90Jul 8Jul 13Jul 16Jul 21Jul 24
8 expected runs missing in window
Choppy NeutralChoppy Neutral
published label · 2-run confirmation applied
Composite vs label bands, trailing month, all 5 editions/day. Ring = raw label disagreed with the published (confirmation-lag pressure). Y clamped to ±1.3.
trend+0.25
breadth+1.00
volatility+1.50
rotation+1.15
size-0.30
style-1.75
p(stay 1d)0.87
p(persist 5d)0.55
expected dwell7.7 td
samplen=506
Labels are monotone in forward VOLATILITY, not direction — size positions to the risk state, don't chase the label. Transition is empirical; a label change needs two-run confirmation.
The model reads 'Choppy Neutral' with 0.87 confidence (composite 0.295). This regime historically embeds elevated two-way volatility and shallow drawdowns rather than trending price. It settled three days ago and carries an expected dwell of 7.7 days, leaving roughly 4.7 days. Same-day tilts show SMH capturing 12.2 bp edge while defensives like XLV lag by -4.7 bp, consistent with the regime's typical intraday dispersion. The dominant exit path is Constructive Rotation at 52.5%, but Distribution Risk (28.8%) remains a material alternative.
Top Single-Stock Setups (4h–1 Week)
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.8/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 631w +2.8%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$379.71
RSI64
1wk+2.8%
ATR stop−4.4%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=100)
-14%+19%
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.2/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 621w +1.7%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$358.01
RSI63
1wk+1.7%
ATR stop−5.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=100)
-14%+19%
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.1/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 631w +1.3%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$21.53
RSI64
1wk+1.3%
ATR stop−2.6%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=100)
-14%+19%
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Thematic Momentum Leadership · factor score 7.7/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 641w +7.6%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$121.05
RSI65
1wk+7.6%
ATR stop−4.0%
1-week return vs Thematic Momentum Leadership basket (n=100)
-14%+19%
Momentum continuation4h–1 week
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout · factor score 7.5/10 (top quintile)
Leadership/uptrend with room — flow-confirmed
UptrendQ1RSI 591w +3.5%MACD+CMF+Force+
Last$104.49
RSI60
1wk+3.5%
ATR stop−8.3%
1-week return vs Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout basket (n=24)
-7%+10%
Long-only opportunity lens: names where the factor basket and the technical state agree over a 4-hour-to-1-week window. Confluence score, not a price target — size to the ATR stop and treat every setup as a probability, not a promise.
Long-only confluence screen: the factor engine's basket and the technical state pointing the same way over a 4-hour-to-1-week window.Deep Data — Analyst Digest
what stands out · tap a line to jumpSize and Breadth
TAKE Nano beats Large by 0.2pp today; 66% of the universe above the 50-DMA — breadth strong.
237 adv229 dec
>50-DMA66%share of universe
>200-DMA71%share of universe
Baskets +ve38%baskets green
Up/Down Vol0.25xvolume in advancers
Size buckets
Large (>=5B)-0.18%
1D-0.2%1W+0.2%MTD-0.3%YTD+17.1%
Small Cap $1B-$5B-0.00%
1D-0.0%1W-1.1%MTD-1.1%YTD+18.8%
Micro Cap $250M-$1B+0.00%
1D+0.0%1W-1.6%MTD-2.2%YTD+12.5%
Nano Cap <$250M+0.00%
1D+0.0%1W-5.0%MTD+14.1%YTD+30.6%
Cross-Sectional Dispersion
TAKE Dispersion is mid-range across cross-sections — no structural edge to spread trades vs index exposure.
compressed −3σ0wide +3σ
Sectorsstdev 1.18pp · IQR 1.80pp · n11+0.10σ
Stylesstdev 0.58pp · IQR 0.44pp · n10-0.81σ
Volume and Participation
No session volume yet — participation populates after the open (first read: morning edition).
Cross-Asset Confirmation
TAKE Cross-asset tape (CAC -0.55, mixed) does NOT confirm the “Choppy Neutral” equity regime — treat equity signals with less conviction until rates/credit/commodities agree.
CAC -0.55mixed
−risk-off0+risk-on
Equitiesbroad index tape · 2/6 adv
-0.11%med
Rates & Creditduration + credit spread · 4/4 adv
+0.13%med
Commodities & FXgold · oil · the dollar · 0/5 adv
-1.49%med
Globalint'l / EM equity · 1/7 adv
-2.37%med
Opportunity Watchlist
TAKE 5 names led by AR (score 90, Wave 1 / accumulation); 1/5 confirming intraday — but the leader sits in an Avoid basket.
fading intraday — -0.04% vs its basket
factor engine disagrees: sits in Broken Momentum / Avoid
confirming intraday — +2.07% vs its basket
fading intraday — -2.27% vs its basket
factor engine disagrees: sits in Broken Momentum / Avoid
fading intraday — +0.31% vs its basket
fading intraday — -1.24% vs its basket
Multi-Horizon Context
TAKE Every production basket is trading with its monthly trend — trend-conforming tape.
Extended Momentum Risk19 names+0.36%
1D+0.4%3D+6.2%1W+7.4%MTD+20.2%3M+24.6%YTD+23.1%
Institutional Large-Cap Accumulation37 names+0.25%
1D+0.2%3D+1.8%1W+3.1%MTD+9.3%3M+24.8%YTD+30.3%
Smaller-Cap High-Beta Breakout24 names+0.15%
1D+0.1%3D+1.2%1W+0.3%MTD+8.4%3M+52.2%YTD+92.2%
Thematic Momentum Leadership100 names+0.13%
1D+0.1%3D+2.6%1W+1.6%MTD+7.5%3M+27.0%YTD+29.8%
Low-Vol Aligned Uptrend107 names+0.07%
1D+0.1%3D+1.6%1W+1.7%MTD+3.4%3M+7.5%YTD+15.1%
Broken Momentum / Avoid123 names-0.16%
1D-0.2%3D+1.7%1W-0.2%MTD-4.4%3M-15.7%YTD-15.7%
Unclassified / Insufficient Data8 names-0.19%
1D-0.2%3D+2.6%1W-0.4%MTD-3.6%3M+10.7%YTD+36.3%
Neutral / Transition550 names-0.34%
1D-0.3%3D+0.5%1W-0.2%MTD-2.0%3M+5.4%YTD+18.9%
Oversold / Mean-Reversion Watch37 names-0.35%
1D-0.3%3D-5.4%1W-7.9%MTD-17.0%3M-17.0%YTD+3.3%
Data Quality and Coverage
TAKE Coverage 51.3% — below the 70% claim floor; 1 degraded basket, 4 missing report days. Read thin-basket claims accordingly.
Coverage51.3%
share of the universe with usable data this run
warn premarket rvol suppressed: <1% of a day's volume prints by 07:00 ET, so relative volume is structurally meaningless before the open
warn thin production basket: Unclassified / Insufficient Data n_members=8 (<10); exclude from broad leadership claims
Degraded baskets
theme:Healthcare / Biotech
Missing report days (4)
2026-07-01, 2026-07-02, 2026-07-06, 2026-07-07